Last pres. election the Dems carried whites in each state

[nclib]

Alabama   
Alaska   1964
Arizona   
Arkansas   1996?
California   2016
Colorado   2008
Connecticut   2012
Delaware   2008
District of Columbia   2016
Florida   
Georgia   
Hawaii   2016
Idaho   
Illinois   2008
Indiana   
Iowa   2012
Kansas   
Kentucky   
Louisiana   
Maine   2016
Maryland   
Massachusetts   2016
Michigan   2008
Minnesota   2008
Mississippi   
Missouri   
Montana   
Nebraska   
Nevada   
New Hampshire   2012
New Jersey   
New Mexico   
New York   2012
North Carolina   
North Dakota   1964?
Ohio   
Oklahoma   
Oregon   2016
Pennsylvania   
Rhode Island   2016
South Carolina   
South Dakota   
Tennessee   
Texas   
Utah   
Vermont   2016
Virginia   
Washington   2016
West Virginia   1996?
Wisconsin   2008
Wyoming   1964

Anyone want to take a stab at any others...

[Calthrina950]

Alabama   
Alaska   1964
Arizona   
Arkansas   1996?
California   2016
Colorado   2008
Connecticut   2012
Delaware   2008
District of Columbia   2016
Florida   
Georgia   
Hawaii   2016
Idaho   
Illinois   2008
Indiana   
Iowa   2012
Kansas   
Kentucky   
Louisiana   
Maine   2016
Maryland   
Massachusetts   2016
Michigan   2008
Minnesota   2008
Mississippi   
Missouri   
Montana   
Nebraska   
Nevada   
New Hampshire   2012
New Jersey   
New Mexico   
New York   2012
North Carolina   
North Dakota   1964?
Ohio   
Oklahoma   
Oregon   2016
Pennsylvania   
Rhode Island   2016
South Carolina   
South Dakota   
Tennessee   
Texas   
Utah   
Vermont   2016
Virginia   
Washington   2016
West Virginia   1996?
Wisconsin   2008
Wyoming   1964

Anyone want to take a stab at any others...

Alabama-1960 (1956 for sure if you disregard the confused PV situation with Kennedy and Byrd in the state). 1976 is also a possibility, but I suspect that Ford narrowly carried whites there.

Arizona-1948. Clinton only beat Dole in the state by 2.22% in 1996, and was almost certainly carried over the finish line by Hispanic/Native American voters.

Florida-1948. I've read numerous sources stating that Johnson would not have carried the state without the black vote in 1964, and given that Goldwater won more counties than him and dominated in the Panhandle, this seems plausible. Carter was carried by black voters in 1976 as well, though he probably came close with whites, since he is the last Democrat to win a majority in the Panhandle.

Georgia-1980. Carter won the state by 13%, and Georgia was less diverse than it is today. He did very strongly throughout the rural white "hillbilly" counties, though I would assume that the white vote was very close, due to Reagan's strength in suburban Atlanta. Carter certainly won whites by a landslide margin there in 1976, when he won every county in the state. Clinton definitely did not win white voters in 1992.

Idaho-1964. Johnson won by 1.84%, but Idaho is one of the whitest states in the country and was even whiter back then. Today, a Democratic victory by that margin would be provided by Hispanic voters, who are a much more noticeable group in the state now than they were then.

Indiana-1964. Obama definitely did not win white voters, and was carried over the line by high black turnout in Gary and Indianapolis.

Kansas-1964. Johnson is the last Democrat to even win Kansas, and Kansas, like Idaho, is a very white state.

Kentucky-1976. The state was very close in both 1992 and 1996, particularly in the latter year, when Clinton won by less than 1%. Kentucky has enough black voters to have carried him over the finish line against Dole. It's possible Clinton may have captured a plurality in 1992, though.

Louisiana-1952. That is the last time Democrats definitely won the white vote. 1976 is a possibility, but I think Carter was probably carried over by the black vote. Clinton of course lost whites in 1992/96.

Maryland-1964. Maryland was much less diverse back then (Johnson only got in the 60s in Prince George County, for example), and Johnson was the last Democrat to win predominantly white Carroll County, and several other rural counties Democrats have not carried since.

Mississippi-1956. This is also the last time Democrats won a majority of the state's vote. Carter was carried over the finish line by black voters.

Missouri-1964. Carter probably narrowly lost whites in 1976. Clinton may have garnered a plurality in both 1992 and 1996, but that is far from certain.

Montana-1964. Clinton barely won the state in 1992, and there were probably enough Native American voters to make the difference for him there, coupled with Perot.

Nebraska-1964. Johnson is the last Democrat to even win here.

Nevada-1964. Johnson is the last Democrat to win most of the now titanium-R rural counties, and Nevada was much less diverse and much less populous back then.

New Jersey-1964. Once again, Lyndon Johnson is the last Democratic victor among white voters.

New Mexico-1964. Johnson gets it once again.

Ohio-1964. Once again, Lyndon Johnson.

Oklahoma-1964. Yet again, Johnson, who is the last Democrat to even win the state.

Pennsylvania-2008. Obama won by just over 10%, and Democrats are usually able to gain at least a plurality of whites if they are winning by low double digits. 1964 is the last time for sure though that Democrats won the white vote here.

South Carolina-1956. 1960 is a contender, but there were some black voters in the state that year, and they broke heavily for Kennedy. The last time Democrats got a majority of white voters was almost certainly 1952.

South Dakota-1964. Johnson, again the last Democrat to even win here.

Tennessee-1976. Carter actually did better than Johnson here, if I recall correctly. Johnson obviously won whites in 1964 as well. Bill Clinton only got pluralities in 1992/96, and in the latter year, won by less than 3%.

Texas-1964. Lyndon Johnson definitely won a majority of the white vote in his home state, and this is the last year that Texas went Democratic by a double-digit margin.

Utah-1964. Again, credit goes to Johnson, who is the last Democrat to even win here.

Virginia-1948. Johnson probably would have lost the state without black voters in 1964, and I've read several sources stating that they were critical to his success here.

[TDAS04]

Louisiana:  Very likely 1960.  Kennedy must have won a plurality.

North Carolina:  Possibly 1976, otherwise 1964 is most probable.

[Cape Verde]

Clinton probably won NJ white vote by plurality in 1996. He won the state by 17.86%. Also back then, Hispanic & Asian turnout were very low.

[SInNYC]

According to CNN exit polls, Kerry won whites in the following states:
New England (excluding NY if you count that as New England)
MN
HI
WA
a 50-50 tie in OR
I consider these the traditional base for whites voting D. HI is the usual oddity in which whites, not being a majority (though a plurality), vote more D than other groups.

Unfortunately, those exit polls were deemed flawed and pulled off the web, so we have to go to the way back engine (Dec 04 2004 capture) of http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html.

Also, states like CA have had a major white Democratic shift since then.

[TML]

Clinton probably won NJ white vote by plurality in 1996. He won the state by 17.86%. Also back then, Hispanic & Asian turnout were very low.

1996 exit polls indicate that White voters in NJ went 46% Clinton, 42% Dole, 10% Perot, and 2% Other.

[Mr. Smith]

1964 for Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Oklahoma.

1976 or 1980 for Georgia

idk, 1992 for Montana?

[Calthrina950]

Clinton probably won NJ white vote by plurality in 1996. He won the state by 17.86%. Also back then, Hispanic & Asian turnout were very low.

1996 exit polls indicate that White voters in NJ went 46% Clinton, 42% Dole, 10% Perot, and 2% Other.

This makes sense, given that Clinton is the last Democrat to carry Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May Counties.

[nclib]

Nice to actually have the 1996 exit polls by state. This confirms NJ, AR, WV, MO, and probably (1% margin in the exit poll) PA whites for Bill Clinton, and LA, KY, TN, FL, NV, NM, and AZ whites for Bob Dole. Ohio is tie in the 1996 exit poll.

[Idaho Conservative]

My guesses based on some excel charts I ran:

Alabama   1960    (if you exclude this because of unpledged elector weirdness, 1956)
Alaska   1964   
Arizona   1948 
Arkansas   1996   
California   2016
Colorado   2008
Connecticut   2012
Delaware   2008   
District of Columbia   2016
Florida   1948 
Georgia   1976   
Hawaii   2016
Idaho   1964   
Illinois   2008   
Indiana   1964   
Iowa   2012
Kansas   1964   
Kentucky   1976   
Louisiana   1960   
Maine   2016
Maryland   1964   
Massachusetts   2016
Michigan   2008   
Minnesota   2012
Mississippi   1956   
Missouri   1992
Montana   1992   
Nebraska   1964   
Nevada   1964   
New Hampshire   2012
New Jersey   1996  (within 1% in 2000)
New Mexico   1964   
New York   2012
North Carolina   (unclear if 1960, 1956, 1952, certainly 1948)
North Dakota   1964   
Ohio   1964   
Oklahoma   1964   
Oregon   2016
Pennsylvania   1996   (within 1% in 2008, barely by 1% in 1996, certain in 1992)
Rhode Island   2016
South Carolina   (unclear if 1960, certainly 1956) 
South Dakota   1964   
Tennessee   1976   
Texas   1964   
Utah   1964   
Vermont   2016
Virginia  (unclear if 1948, certainly 1944)
Washington   2016
West Virginia   1996   
Wisconsin   2008 (within 1% in 2012)
Wyoming   1964   

Pre-1988 we don't have census turnout supplements that have racial breakdowns in the same way, so those estimates are more up for debate

Exit polls have Romney winning the mn white vote in 2012

[Calthrina950]

snip

Exit polls have Romney winning the mn white vote in 2012

That's unlikely to have happened based on the demographics of Minnesota. Exit polls are broadly accurate, but have some built in error, a lot of which stems from the fact they overstate the number of non-white voters.

Minnesota's electorate was not 13% non-white in 2012 as the exit polls said. It was almost certainly closer to 10%. That flips MN Whites to Obama.

I have a few questions, relating to the 1964 election. By your calculations, Johnson lost whites in Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, as I suspected. Did Goldwater win whites in Arkansas and Tennessee as well? Was Texas the only former Confederate state where Johnson won the white vote?

[Cape Verde]

Johnson carried NC by 12.3%. Besides MS, I guess a decent amount of Black population were able to vote in the South before the 1965 Voting Rights Act, but I still don't think the size of Black electorate was big enough to exceed Johnson-Goldwater margins.

[Calthrina950]

Johnson carried NC by 12.3%. Besides MS, I guess a decent amount of Black population were able to vote in the South before the 1965 Voting Rights Act, but I still don't think the size of Black electorate was big enough to exceed Johnson-Goldwater margins.

This is a question which has long vexed me. One of the sources that I've seen, which I've posted links to on this forum a number of times, is a report by the Southern Regional Council from November 1964. That report, written shortly after the election, discusses the results of the 1964 election in the South. According to it, Johnson would not have won Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee, Virginia, and possibly North Carolina without the black vote. Florida and Virginia I can definitely believe, particularly the former, but I don't get the other three states, especially North Carolina, where Johnson did the best, out of these states listed.

snip

Exit polls have Romney winning the mn white vote in 2012

That's unlikely to have happened based on the demographics of Minnesota. Exit polls are broadly accurate, but have some built in error, a lot of which stems from the fact they overstate the number of non-white voters.

Minnesota's electorate was not 13% non-white in 2012 as the exit polls said. It was almost certainly closer to 10%. That flips MN Whites to Obama.

I have a few questions, relating to the 1964 election. By your calculations, Johnson lost whites in Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, as I suspected. Did Goldwater win whites in Arkansas and Tennessee as well? Was Texas the only former Confederate state where Johnson won the white vote?

Both Tennessee and Texas appear to be narrow Johnson wins in the White vote

What about Arkansas?

[morgankingsley]

South Carolina-1956. 1960 is a contender, but there were some black voters in the state that year, and they broke heavily for Kennedy. The last time Democrats got a majority of white voters was almost certainly 1952.

Carter won the state by double digits, I think he probably won the white vote in 76

[Sumner 1868]

South Carolina-1956. 1960 is a contender, but there were some black voters in the state that year, and they broke heavily for Kennedy. The last time Democrats got a majority of white voters was almost certainly 1952.

Carter won the state by double digits, I think he probably won the white vote in 76

Unlikely. SC was 30.4% black in the 1970 census.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Nice to actually have the 1996 exit polls by state. This confirms NJ, AR, WV, MO, and probably (1% margin in the exit poll) PA whites for Bill Clinton, and LA, KY, TN, FL, NV, NM, and AZ whites for Bob Dole. Ohio is tie in the 1996 exit poll.

Dole won the white vote nationally, but wouldn't have won electoral vote with just whites voting lol. You could give him those states plus Ohio and Maryland (he won the white vote by 5 points there), and he'd still lose 260-278. I guess Dole's white voters were just too concentrated in the South, plus Clinton's white margin in a lot of states was narrow (2 points in CA).