2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar

[jaichind]

Seat gap moving in favor of NDA despite vote share tie

NDA         125(--)
  BJP           73(+20)
  JD(U)        43(-27)
  VIP             4(+4)
  HAM           4(+3)

UPA          111(+1)
 RJD           75(-5)
 INC           19(-8)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           3(+3)
 CPI            3(+3)

LJP            0(-2)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          1(+1)
 AIMIM      5(+5)

IND           1(-3)

[jaichind]

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 95% of the vote counted. 
Still neck-to-neck

NDA         37.24%
  BJP          19.40%
  JD(U)       15.41%
  VIP            1.53%
  HAM          0.90%

UPA         37.22%
  RJD         23.06%
  INC           9.51%
  CPM(ML)    3.18%
  CPM          0.82%
  CPI           0.65%

LJP           5.68%

GDSF       4.52%
   RLSP        1.77%
   BSP          1.50%
   AIMIM      1.25%

[jaichind]

Seat gap in favor of NDA despite vote share tie

NDA         125(--)
  BJP           74(+21)
  JD(U)        43(-27)
  VIP             4(+4)
  HAM           4(+3)

UPA          110(+1)
 RJD           75(-5)
 INC           19(-8)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           3(+3)
 CPI            2(+2)

LJP            1(-1)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          1(+1)
 AIMIM      5(+5)

IND           1(-3)

Most likely this will be the result with NDA getting a bare majority.  Before the exit polls I think the UPA would jump at this result.  But after exit polls this sort of a result is quite disappointing to UPA.

[jaichind]

BJP campaigned on supporting Nitish Kumar as CM even if the BJP wins more seats than JD(U).  Now that BJP will end up with something like 74 MLAs vs 43 MLA for JD(U) puts BJP in a bind.  The will face pressure from within to put in a BJP CM especially when the large drop of JD(U) MLAs represents a vote of no confidence in Nitish Kumar.

[xelas81]

BJP campaigned on supporting Nitish Kumar as CM even if the BJP wins more seats than JD(U).  Now that BJP will end up with something like 74 MLAs vs 43 MLA for JD(U) puts BJP in a bind.  The will face pressure from within to put in a BJP CM especially when the large drop of JD(U) MLAs represents a vote of no confidence in Nitish Kumar.

I guessing JDU is going to claim that JDU could have been the largest party without LJP splitting the NDA vote in JDU seats.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/chirag-paswans-wicked-game-puts-nitish-kumar-in-third-place-2323236

[jaichind]

BJP campaigned on supporting Nitish Kumar as CM even if the BJP wins more seats than JD(U).  Now that BJP will end up with something like 74 MLAs vs 43 MLA for JD(U) puts BJP in a bind.  The will face pressure from within to put in a BJP CM especially when the large drop of JD(U) MLAs represents a vote of no confidence in Nitish Kumar.

I guessing JDU is going to claim that JDU could have been the largest party without LJP splitting the NDA vote in JDU seats.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/chirag-paswans-wicked-game-puts-nitish-kumar-in-third-place-2323236

Yes, but the BJP will, with a innocent face, say "what the LJP did has nothing to do with me ..."

Still one way or another for now the BJP will have Nitish Kumar as CM.  Sooner or later he will step down and there will be a race between BJP, LJP and RJD to eat into the JD(U) which will for sure disintegrate once Nitish Kumar moves on from the political scene.  JD(U) at 43 seats it the lowest seat count of JD(U) (and SAP which is proto-JD(U)) since 1995.  One can argue the disintegration has already begun.   

[jaichind]

I am still working on my vote share calculations but in the meantime here is NewsClick's vote share calculations when compared to 2015

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/tejashwi-yadav-demands-recounting-of-postal-ballots-169699

Tejashwi elected Grand Alliance legislature party leader, claims NDA won by deceit

Tejashwi Yadav claims that his alliance was robbed of victory via VBM ballots.  He demands recounts across the board of all VBM.  He indicated that VBM should be counted first and then the election votes but it seems all sorts of VBM ballots showed up during the counting day to be counted after the VBM allegedly were all counted.

[jaichind]

My calculated vote share

                    Contest          Win           Vote share          Vote share in contested seats
NDA                243             125               37.90%
  BJP               110               74               19.80%                      43.17%
  JD(U)            115               43               15.65%                      33.48%   
  VIP                 11                4                  1.54%                      33.28%
  HAM                 7                4                  0.91%                      32.89%

JD(U) rebel                           1                 0.90%
BJP rebel                                                 0.65%

LJP+              136                 1                 5.87%
 LJP               135                 1                 5.75%                       10.46%
 Ind(LJP)           1                  0                0.11%                       27.83%

UPA               243              110               37.87%
  RJD             114                75               23.50%                      39.60%
  INC               70                19                9.64%                       33.45%
  CPM(ML)        19                12                3.22%                       42.27%
  CPI                  6                 2                0.84%                       33.74%
  CPM                 4                 2                0.66%                       38.60%

RJD rebel                                                0.59%
INC rebel                                                0.16%

GDSF            225                 6                 4.69%
 RLSP              99                 0                 1.80%                        4.48%
 BSP               78                 1                 1.52%                         4.73%
 AIMIM            20                 5                 1.26%                       14.54%
 SJDD             19                 0                 0.08%                         1.01%
 JP(S)               7                 0                 0.03%                         1.05%
 SBSP               2                  0                0.00%                         0.38%

a) BJP clearly mostly avoided being dragged down by anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar
b) LJP clearly hit JD(U) hard winning over 10% of the vote where it contested.  As a result JD(U) seat and vote share in seats contested is clearly lower than BJP.
c) INC is the weak link in UPA with a fairly low seat and vote share in seats contested.  To be fair INC got a lot of Upper caste heavy BJP-INC seats which the BJP were predestined to sweep
d) The Left, and especially CPI(ML) did very well with CPI(ML) actually getting vote share in seat contested close to what the BJP achieved!!
e) AIMIM clearly cut into the RJD-INC Muslim vote and did just well enough to prevent an UPA majority.
f) RLSP was a total bust. RJD was right not to give them the seats demands they were looking for
g) HAM and VIP did fairly well under the circumstances.  Both were able to ride the BJP wave.  Several VIP candidates were actually BJP candidate running on VIP ticket so the VIP performance has to have an asterisk next to it
h) JD(U) did just well enough to drag the NDA across the finishing line.

[jaichind]

NDA vs UPA battle matrix

BJP vs RJD - 61
  BJP         38
  RJD        21
  AIMIM      2

BJP vs INC - 37
  BJP         29
  INC          7
  BSP          1

BJP vs Left - 12
  BJP          7
  Left          5

JD(U) vs RJD - 71
  JD(U )        21
  RJD           48
  AIMIM         1
  JD(U) rebel  1

JD(U) vs INC - 28
  JD(U)         17
  INC            10
  AIMIM          1

JD(U) vs Left - 16
  JD(U)           5
  Left            10
  LJP              1

NDA Minor vs RJD - 12
  NDA Minor    6
  RJD              6

NDA Minor vs INC - 5
  NDA Minor    2
  INC              2
  AIMIM          1

NDA Minor vs Left - 1
  NDA Minor    0
  Left              1

It is clear that INC is the weak link in UPA and JD(U) is the weak link in NDA.   So what is critical are the JD(U) vs INC vs LJP seats.  Out of 28 of these seats JD(U) won 17 to INC 10 despite LJP being there to eat into the anti-Nitish Kumar BJP vote.  INC proved to be an even weaker link than JD(U) leading to narrow NDA victory.

Left turned out to be the strongest leg of UPA.  They even fought BJP to a near draw even as BJP defeated RJD by a good margin in their 1-on-1 matcheups

[jaichind]

Just to quantify the impact of LJP.

Out of the 136 seats where LJP or a pro-LJP independent (and a BJP rebel) ran: UPA won 77 seats and NDA 55 (4 going to others.)  Out of the 107 seats LJP did not run: NDA won 70 seats and UPA 33 (4 going to others.)

[jaichind]

Just focusing in on the 28 seats where it was JD(U) vs INC vs LJP the result was


                           Contest          Win           Vote share           
JD(U)                       28              17              35.96%   

LJP                          28               0               10.25%

INC                         28              10              33.56%

GDSF                      27                1                6.91%
 RLSP                       9                0                1.33%
 BSP                       11                0                3.12%
 AIMIM                     3                1                2.27%
 SJDD                       1                0               0.06%
 JP(S)                       3                0                0.12%

The NDA+LJP vote share seems pretty consistent with overall results but INC clearly underperformed UPA numbers.  Going by above average performance of BSP and AIMIM here it seems it was anti-NDA Dalit and Muslim voters failed to consolidate completely behind INC leading to defeat in this bloc of seats.  Since JD(U) and INC are the weakest link of their respectively alliance a JD(U) win in these seats is the critical factor in UPA's failure to win a majority.

In JD(U) vs RJD vs LJP seats with the LJP getting the anti-JD(U) BJP vote the RJD was able to beat out JD(U) by more than 2 to 1 in terms of seats by consolidating the anti-NDA vote.

Ultimately INC's problem is the lack of a face of the party.  BJP has Modi, JD(U) has Nitish Kumar even if his brand is damaged he is still a face, RJD has Tejashwi Yadav and LJP has Chirag Paswan.  INC in theory have Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi but their brand no longer has appeal to the youth and barely has any influence to older INC Upper Caste and Dalit base voters.  For INC to revive it has to find and support local leaders that can directly appeal to the electorate.

[warandwar]

Jaichind, make sure you're writing CPI(ML)L, don't want to confuse them with the CPI(ML)!

[jaichind]

Jaichind, make sure you're writing CPI(ML)L, don't want to confuse them with the CPI(ML)!

Good point.  I got lazy.  In Biahr CPI(ML) is really not active so CPI(ML)L is sort of THE CPI(ML) in Bihar ergo I just go with CPI(ML).  The Indian extreme Left does what the extreme Left does everywhere and mimic Life of Brian and the various Judean Liberation Front splinters.

[GlobeSoc]

does the commie surge in the region give them any long term opportunities?

[CumbrianLefty]

Its not just the Commies who are fissiparous in Indian politics tbf.

How many variants of Congress or Janata parties have there been down the years?

[jaichind]

does the commie surge in the region give them any long term opportunities?

Perhaps.  This election, in retrospect, played into the hands of cadre based parties.  Due to the COVID-19 crisis with large number migrant workers streaming back into Bihar had given the edge to political formations have have local party cadres that can help with day to day needs of the population.  That means BJP with its RSS organization, the Left parties, and to some extent RJD gaining in this election.  Parties totally based on ideas or personality like JD(U) and INC clearly lost ground.  BJP is in the best position as it has Modi as a brand AND the local RSS and BJP cadres dealing with retail politics.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/nda-meet-on-sunday-to-choose-its-leader-in-bihar-says-nitish-kumar/story-StluIliwHSkWJxSm8GK9PI.html

NDA meet on Sunday to choose its leader in Bihar, says Nitish Kumar

Nitish Kumar it talking down on the prospect that he will be the next CM while BJP is talking up Nitish Kumar being the next CM

I am sure this is a series of mind games between Nitish Kumar and BJP as all this is about power sharing at the ministry level.  The "hidden flaw" of the BJP in Bihar is that they are not able to really project a CM candidate.  It is not just lack of talent but that BJP is an alliance of Upper Caste and OBC Hindu voters.  So if the BJP promote an Upper Caste CM then the OBC vote will defect to RJD.  If the BJP promotes an OBC CM then the Upper Caste vote might defect to INC.

So Nitish Kumar's position is: he will not throw his hat into the ring and once the BJP sees there is no alternative to Nitish Kumar they will come running to him and het gets to dictate terms. 

The BJP position is: We will make Nitish Kumar CM despite BJP being the largest NDA party and in return BJP should get a lion's share of the ministries and power.

We will see how this game of chicken plays out.

[jaichind]

Notwithstanding Tejashwi Yadav claims of fraud and demands of recount, he has clearly established himself as the undisputed leader of RJD and the clear leader of the anti-NDA pole in Bihar.  Even if he missed this time, the next election in Bihar will be 2026 when I suspect he will be favorite to come to power and even then he will still be just 36 and on track to be one of the youngest CMs in modern Indian history.

[warandwar]

Jaichind, make sure you're writing CPI(ML)L, don't want to confuse them with the CPI(ML)!

Good point.  I got lazy.  In Biahr CPI(ML) is really not active so CPI(ML)L is sort of THE CPI(ML) in Bihar ergo I just go with CPI(ML).  The Indian extreme Left does what the extreme Left does everywhere and mimic Life of Brian and the various Judean Liberation Front splinters.

CPI(ML) is the historical party. Folded in 1970, so it's "really not active" anywhere.  Formally, the CPI(ML)(L) declares itself to be the CPI(ML), of course, but in other areas, the CPI(ML)'s heirs are Naxalbaris, or trade unionists, etc...

[jaichind]

Jaichind, make sure you're writing CPI(ML)L, don't want to confuse them with the CPI(ML)!

Good point.  I got lazy.  In Biahr CPI(ML) is really not active so CPI(ML)L is sort of THE CPI(ML) in Bihar ergo I just go with CPI(ML).  The Indian extreme Left does what the extreme Left does everywhere and mimic Life of Brian and the various Judean Liberation Front splinters.

CPI(ML) is the historical party. Folded in 1970, so it's "really not active" anywhere.  Formally, the CPI(ML)(L) declares itself to be the CPI(ML), of course, but in other areas, the CPI(ML)'s heirs are Naxalbaris, or trade unionists, etc...

I had thought that CPI(ML) was in theory still around but you are right.  There are many CPI(ML) splinters out there all claiming to be THE CPI(ML).  CPI(ML)L I guess it the biggest of them.  And yes, a bunch of those splinters have rejected electoral politics for other legal or illegal means.

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/politics/almost-70-of-mlas-in-bihars-new-assembly-face-criminal-cases-up-10-from-the-last-one/543130/

70% of Bihar's newly election MLA have a criminal record.  About half of them for serious crimes like rape or murder.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/politics/161120/bihar-cm-nitish-kumar-all-set-to-take-oath-today-2-deputy-cms-likely.html

"Bihar CM Nitish Kumar all set to take oath today; 2 deputy CMs likely too"

Nitish Kumar elected as leader of NDA in Bihar which means he will become CM once again.  This time the BJP has demanded: 2 DCM, speaker, and Home minister.  It seems that Nitish Kumar has already agreed to 2 BJP DCM.  Not clear on the BJP Speaker and Home Minister but most likely Nitish Kumar, who is much reduced, will have to accept.   A BJP Speaker is critical as if BJP and JD(U) were to have a falling out and JD(U) split along pro-BJP and anti-BJP lines a BJP Speaker will be critical for the BJP to hold on to a majority.

[jaichind]

With INC doing relatively badly in the Bihar assembly elections and being blamed by RJD for UPA's narrow defeat, another round of low intensity complaints against Rahul Gandhi are rising up in INC.  At the same time Obama's new book describes Rahul Gandhi as " lacking ‘either aptitude or passion to master the subject (of politics’)" which many in INC publicly complain about but privately seem to agree with.   

https://theprint.in/politics/obamas-description-of-rahul-gandhi-apt-many-congress-leaders-say-in-private/545786/

Overall my view is Rahul Gandhi has been getting better on the stump but still lack that killer instinct to go for victory on the long term by throwing enough time and energy into the INC recovery program.

[jaichind]

Several BJP ruled states are passing laws against "Love Jihad".  Haryana has done so already

MP is the latest and UP is next

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/181120/madhya-pradesh-assembly-to-bring-love-jihad-law-make-it-non-bailabl.html

The idea is to stop Muslims men from marrying Hindu to convert them into Muslims and bear Muslim children as an explicit deliberate strategy.  I think the core issue is to stop inter-faith marriages as well as inter-caste marriages.   The various Hindu "anti-Romeo squads" are really the same idea.  Now it will be the law in many states.