2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:38:56 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13
Author Topic: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar  (Read 18858 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #250 on: November 09, 2020, 05:04:00 PM »

If RJD does win it seems it has to do with a whirlwind of rallies by Tejaswi Yadav.  In a 20-day campaign,  Tejaswi Yadav completed 247 rallies which averages to over 10 rallies in one day.  The size of the rallies were huge (and mostly youth) and only got bigger as the campaign went on

Sample of what the rallies looked like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrKef_XI0RA

No masks or social distancing here.  Doctor Fauci  would not approve
Logged
randomusername
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 376


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #251 on: November 09, 2020, 09:40:12 PM »

Any chance we see a "red mirage" type effect in today's elections?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #252 on: November 09, 2020, 09:55:43 PM »

Any chance we see a "red mirage" type effect in today's elections?

See my old writeup on how vote counts work

Jaichind, can you explain to us exactly why the "winning party's seat count keeps growing as the counting goes on" phenomenon occurs? That was clearly the case tonight, since early seat counts had UPA flipping 50 seats or so from the NDA, and almost all those flips evaporated as counting went on. I have no idea why that would happen, though. I could understand if the counting bias always favored the UPA early on and the NDA always grew as the night went on, but you seem to suggest that whatever party is winning will be underestimated early on, which I can't think of a mechanism for.

The way to explain is that the way the count works is they count a block of precincts, report results then count another bloc of precincts and then report the combined result.  Because of that the count is NOT random and will have clear biases.  The bias is random but large.  So in the earlier round the vote share could be off as much by, say 10%, or even greater from the real final vote share.

Now, lets imagine an election where Party A defeated Party B 55% to 45% in overall vote share.  Lets assume the vote share per seat is a bell distribution around the 55/45 A vs B point.  So the real result will have party A winning 75% of the seats.  Now in the early round each result will be randomly add 10% or subtract 10% from A's vote share.  Say in half the seats A's vote share is artificially reported as 10% higher than it is and half of the seats A's vote share is artistically reported as 10% lower than it is .  Now, since A is beating B by 10% on average in the seats that we artificially add 10% to A's vote share does nothing to the reported leader of the seat since most likely A was already ahead in the real result anyway. But in the half the seats where we artificially reduce the reported vote share of A then it could lead us to report that B is ahead.  Now as the real results do come in as more and more precincts are counted the true vote share of that seat is revealed reverting a lot of B reported leads as really A leads.

Now if the election is 50/50 or neck-to-neck between A and B then this random shift does nothing to the seat count on average.  That is why I said

Counting will start 8am Delhi time (10:30PM EST).  The way Indian count works there is always a bump for the landslide winner at the very end.  So if early in the count we see NDA below a majority then the result will most likely be NDA without a majority or NDA with a narrow majority.  If early in the count we see NDA with a comfortable majority then it will be a mega NDA landslide in the end. Rarely do the side that is losing suddenly pull ahead or reduce the winner's margin of victory at the end of the count.


Is true. If it is landslide then  as the count goes on the landslide lead gets greater. if it is neck-to-neck then it stays neck-to-neck the whole time

I noticed this watching Indian election returns years ago and after some thinking figured out why.  This is why I focus on the early vote share reports on ECI by state as a way to figure out what the final seat count is going to be.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #253 on: November 09, 2020, 09:56:54 PM »

Any chance we see a "red mirage" type effect in today's elections?

This took place in 2015 where the early count had a BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM landslide victory over JD(U)-RJD-INC but then later in the day it went the other way around.  The networks actually started to talk about what the BJP did right to win only to change their tune later in the day.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #254 on: November 09, 2020, 10:03:40 PM »

Very early count (not really that relevant and very VBM heavy which tend to lean BJP) has

Leads from 87 out of 243 seats

UPA       44 (+10)
NDA      38 (-13)
LJP         2 (+2)
Others    2 (--)

JD(U) taking a lot of losses so far
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #255 on: November 09, 2020, 10:16:41 PM »

Still very early (mostly postal VBM)

UPA       74 (+19)
NDA      56 (-22)
LJP         2 (+2)
Others    4 (--)

postal votes usually favor BJP.  This is not looking good for NDA.  BJP actually gaining seats while JD(U) taking massive losses.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #256 on: November 10, 2020, 04:53:15 AM »

With about half the vote counted the NDA has a surprising narrow lead.  Looks like the exit polls had a miss again.  The result are actually what was expected w/o the exit polls

NDA         131(+6)
  BJP           73(+20)
  JD(U)        50(-21)
  VIP             6(+6)
  HAM           2(+1)

UPA          102(-8)
 RJD           66(-14)
 INC           18(-9)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            3(+3)

LJP            2(--)

GDSF        4(+2)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          2(+2)
 AIMIM      2(+2)

IND           4(--)

vote share wise which I have to compute seems to be neck-to-neck so I suspect it might get closer from here but we will have to see
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #257 on: November 10, 2020, 05:31:40 AM »

The vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out)

NDA         37.57%
  BJP          19.70%
  JD(U)       15.33%
  VIP            1.78%
  HAM          0.76%

UPA         36.54%
  RJD         22.93%
  INC           9.43%
  CPM(ML)    2.95%
  CPM          0.62%
  CPI           0.61%

LJP             5.77%

So neck-to-neck vote share wise.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #258 on: November 10, 2020, 05:34:09 AM »

Seat wise it is now (a bit more than half the vote counted)

NDA         131(+6)
  BJP           75(+22)
  JD(U)        48(-23)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          101(-9)
 RJD           63(-17)
 INC           21(-6)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            2(+2)

LJP            1(-1)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          2(+2)
 AIMIM      4(+4)

IND           4(--)

Strong AIMIM performance seems to indicate that AIMIM did cut into the UPA Muslim vote
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #259 on: November 10, 2020, 06:21:07 AM »

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 55%-60% of the vote counted.  Gap getting closer between the two blocs

NDA         37.32%
  BJP          19.62%
  JD(U)       15.16%
  VIP            1.76%
  HAM          0.78%

UPA         36.70%
  RJD         23.01%
  INC           9.29%
  CPM(ML)    3.13%
  CPM          0.66%
  CPI           0.61%

LJP           5.72%

GDSF       4.82%
   RLSP        1.97%
   BSP          1.68%
   AIMIM      1.17%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #260 on: November 10, 2020, 06:22:36 AM »

Seat wise it is now also getting closer

NDA         126(+6)
  BJP           76(+23)
  JD(U)        42(-29)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          107(-9)
 RJD           70(-10)
 INC           18(-9)
 CPI(ML)    12(+9)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            3(+3)

LJP            1(-1)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          2(+2)
 AIMIM      4(+4)

IND           3(-1)
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #261 on: November 10, 2020, 06:24:47 AM »

Due to COVID-19 there were a lot more voting booths which means the count is much slower.  Usually by this time around 80%-90% of the vote would have been counted but right now it seems to be around 55%-60%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #262 on: November 10, 2020, 06:37:52 AM »

BJP is sweeping various assembly by-elections

In MP mini-assembly election it is sofar
 
                  seats     vote share(w/o NOTA stripped out)
BJP              18             50.76%
INC               7             40.20%
BSP               1              4.86%


Similar story in Gujarat where just like MP a bunch of INC MLAs defected to BJP leading to by-elections where the INC MLAs run as BJP candidates

                  seats     vote share(w/o NOTA stripped out)
BJP                8            54.75%
INC                0            34.52%


In Bihar LS by-election it is neck-to-neck between INC and JD(U)

JD(U)    37.70%
INC       35.39%
BPP       11.20%  (AAP like youth party)
RLSP       5.06%


In UP the BJP wins most races but loses ground in terms of vote share

                  seats     vote share(w/o NOTA stripped out)
BJP                 5            35.79%
BJP rebel                         2.55%
NISHAND rebel                6.28%   
SP-RLD           2            24.84%
BSP                0             18.36%
INC                0               7.64%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #263 on: November 10, 2020, 06:40:20 AM »

Seat wise it is now also getting even closer as foretold by close vote share count so far

NDA         124(-1)
  BJP           75(+22)
  JD(U)        41(-30)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          110(-2)
 RJD           72(-8)
 INC           20(-7)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            3(+3)

LJP            0(-2)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          2(+2)
 AIMIM      4(+4)

IND           4(--)
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #264 on: November 10, 2020, 07:06:50 AM »

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 60% of the vote counted.  Gap getting closer between the two blocs

NDA         37.32%
  BJP          19.58%
  JD(U)       15.15%
  VIP            1.75%
  HAM          0.84%

UPA         36.85%
  RJD         23.11%
  INC           9.30%
  CPM(ML)    3.18%
  CPM          0.64%
  CPI           0.62%

LJP           5.63%

GDSF       4.79%
   RLSP        1.97%
   BSP          1.64%
   AIMIM      1.18%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #265 on: November 10, 2020, 07:18:20 AM »

Seat gap getting closer with RJD overtaking BJP as largest party (for now)

NDA         121(-4)
  BJP           71(+18)
  JD(U)        42(-29)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          113(-2)
 RJD           74(-6)
 INC           21(-6)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            3(+3)

LJP            0(-2)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          1(+1)
 AIMIM      5(+5)

IND           3(-1)
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #266 on: November 10, 2020, 07:44:05 AM »

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 65% of the vote counted.  Gap getting slightly closer between the two blocs

NDA         37.21%
  BJP          19.51%
  JD(U)       15.10%
  VIP            1.74%
  HAM          0.86%

UPA         36.85%
  RJD         23.25%
  INC           9.20%
  CPM(ML)    3.14%
  CPM          0.67%
  CPI           0.59%

LJP           5.61%

GDSF       4.80%
   RLSP        1.95%
   BSP          1.63%
   AIMIM      1.22%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #267 on: November 10, 2020, 08:11:48 AM »

Seat gap getting closer with RJD overtaking BJP as largest party (for now).  NDA no longer has majority.

NDA         121(-4)
  BJP           73(+20)
  JD(U)        40(-31)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          114(-1)
 RJD           77(-3)
 INC           20(-5)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            2(+2)

LJP            0(-2)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          1(+1)
 AIMIM      5(+5)

IND           2(-2)
Logged
kaoras
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,239
Chile


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #268 on: November 10, 2020, 08:29:11 AM »

Why is the Left doing so well in terms of seats? Did they get a good deal or there's more to it?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #269 on: November 10, 2020, 08:50:23 AM »

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 72% of the vote counted.  Both blocs now basically tied

NDA         37.11%
  BJP          19.38%
  JD(U)       15.14%
  VIP            1.72%
  HAM          0.87%

UPA         37.07%
  RJD         23.46%
  INC           9.20%
  CPM(ML)    3.13%
  CPM          0.72%
  CPI           0.56%

LJP           5.63%

GDSF       4.76%
   RLSP        1.90%
   BSP          1.62%
   AIMIM      1.24%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #270 on: November 10, 2020, 08:51:52 AM »

Why is the Left doing so well in terms of seats? Did they get a good deal or there's more to it?

Total shock. Although exit polls indicated this.  Exit polls overestimated RJD but not CPI(ML).  I think there is novelty appeal of the Maoist CPI(ML).  They tend not to be associated with a particular caste, although they are strong with Mahadalit and EBCs, which means they get to cut into the youth vote of all castes.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #271 on: November 10, 2020, 08:54:55 AM »

Seat gap getting closer with RJD overtaking BJP as largest party and the two blocs basically tied

NDA         119(-6)
  BJP           72(+19)
  JD(U)        39(-32)
  VIP             5(+5)
  HAM           3(+2)

UPA          116(+6)
 RJD           78(-2)
 INC           20(-7)
 CPI(ML)    11(+8)
 CPM           4(+4)
 CPI            2(+2)

LJP            0(-2)

GDSF        6(+4)
 RLSP         0(-2)
 BSP          1(+1)
 AIMIM      5(+5)

IND           2(-2)

The minor allies of both fronts are the heros so far.  VIP and HAM overperformed and are keeping NDA in the game.  RJD and INC underperformed exit polls but CPI(ML)-CPI-CPM are doing very well and keeping UPA in the game.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,595
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #272 on: November 10, 2020, 09:59:04 AM »

Any chance we see a "red mirage" type effect in today's elections?

This took place in 2015 where the early count had a BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM landslide victory over JD(U)-RJD-INC but then later in the day it went the other way around.  The networks actually started to talk about what the BJP did right to win only to change their tune later in the day.

Looks like a bit of that this time too?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #273 on: November 10, 2020, 10:09:31 AM »

Any chance we see a "red mirage" type effect in today's elections?

This took place in 2015 where the early count had a BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM landslide victory over JD(U)-RJD-INC but then later in the day it went the other way around.  The networks actually started to talk about what the BJP did right to win only to change their tune later in the day.

Looks like a bit of that this time too?


Not really. The NDA lead in the early count was not that large and now it is tighter is really not inconsistent that this count is very close. Most likely NDA wins but very narrowly
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #274 on: November 10, 2020, 10:24:27 AM »

Updated vote share so far are (with NOTA not stripped out) with around 82% of the vote counted.  B
Both bloc neck to neck

NDA         37.19%
  BJP          19.36%
  JD(U)       15.31%
  VIP            1.62%
  HAM          0.90%

UPA         37.16%
  RJD         23.36%
  INC           9.38%
  CPM(ML)    3.14%
  CPM          0.71%
  CPI           0.57%

LJP           5.64%

GDSF       4.64%
   RLSP        1.84%
   BSP          1.57%
   AIMIM      1.23%
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.059 seconds with 12 queries.