2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
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« Reply #125 on: July 01, 2020, 01:05:26 AM »

Do you think India should move to direct senate elections like the US or just turn their upper house into the House of Lords
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jaichind
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« Reply #126 on: July 01, 2020, 06:56:44 PM »

Do you think India should move to direct senate elections like the US or just turn their upper house into the House of Lords

Well, I am against direct election of Senators in the USA and am for a pre-17th Amendment system.  So given that I am much more supportive of the current Indian system for selecting MP for the RS.
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jaichind
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« Reply #127 on: July 01, 2020, 06:57:35 PM »

In Manipur it seems that BJP managed to get NPP to return to the NDA to back the BJP CM so for now the crisis is over.  I suspect it might flair up again soon.
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jaichind
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« Reply #128 on: July 04, 2020, 06:20:45 AM »

In Bihar it seems the UPA is not he only alliance with trouble.  There are signs that the JD(U)-LJP rift is growing wider and there are signs that LJP might exit NDA to run separately. 

Most likely LJP is fearful that with JD(U) demanding a seat share similar to the 2010 assembly elections when JD(U)-BJP last ran in an alliance and BJP demanding a 50/50 splint in seats share (similar to the 2019 LS elections) that the LJP seat share will be cut to accommodate these competing demands.  It is under similar circumstances that RLSP left NDA to join UPA in the run up to the 2019 LS elections.   

If so then this is mostly bluff and LJP will calm down once they get a respectable share of seats.  If LJP detects that JD(U) brand is in trouble then they might actually act on these threats.  As a whole with BJP backing Nitish Kumar as the face of NDA the core relationship in NDA (JD(U) and BJP) seems intact and NDA will live and die by the image of Nitish Kumar.  More likely than not it will be enough for a victory later this year.
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jaichind
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« Reply #129 on: July 12, 2020, 12:27:30 PM »

Looks like after Karnataka and MP, the INC government in Rajasthan might fall.  The INC DCM and strong Rahul Gandhi loyalist Sachin Pilot it seems might defect to BJP with 19 INC MLAs bring down the INC government and installing a BJP government.   Sachin Pilot claims that the INC CM Ashok Gehlot is using state machinery to go after him and his faction within INC

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/rajasthan-political-crisis-congress-kapil-sibal-ashok-gehlot-sachin-pilot-bjp-6502093/
 
The INC high command inability to work out inter-factional battles most likely will lose it another state
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« Reply #130 on: July 12, 2020, 06:39:19 PM »

Is it wrong to assume that the next state government that the BJP will look to unseat will be Jharkhand?
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jaichind
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« Reply #131 on: July 12, 2020, 07:40:25 PM »

Is it wrong to assume that the next state government that the BJP will look to unseat will be Jharkhand?

Unlikely.  Jharkhand JMM and INC are both pretty solid and most likely not breakable.  Clearly the next BJP target would be Maharashtra where the uneasy SHS-NCP-INC alliance could break up due to internal tensions (there are just not enough spoils for 3 large parties to share.)  This could come in the form of BJP breaking SHS or BJP getting NCP to defect over to BJP to form a government. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #132 on: July 14, 2020, 06:16:15 AM »

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-rajasthan-political-crisis-congress-sacks-sachin-pilot-as-deputy-cm-after-he-snubs-olive-branch/356657

In Rajasthan, INC sacks rebel Sachin Pilot as DCM and head of the Rajasthan INC.  Not sure what  Sachin Pilot's next move is but it is most likely to split the Rajasthan INC.

One big difference between Rajasthan and MP is that in MP, the INC rebel, Jyotiraditya Scindia, did not want to be CM.  He wanted to be nominated to the RS by INC, since he lost his seat in the 2019 LS election,  and was declined.  He went over to the BJP with the understanding that the BJP will nominate him for the RS which they did.  In exchange Jyotiraditya Scindia and his faction of INC MLA resigned to make way for the return of BJP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan.  In Rajasthan  Sachin Pilot  actually want to become CM and seems to be willing to do a deal with BJP to get it.  The problem is 2 time BJP CM Vasundhara Raje (who is actually  Jyotiraditya Scindia's aunt) is still fairly powerful in the Rajasthan BJP and I do not see why she will do all this work to help Sachin Pilot to split the INC, join the BJP, only for him to be CM.  So in many ways this might discourage the Sachin Pilot faction from joining Sachin Pilot in resigning and going over to the BJP since there might not be a deal that both Sachin Pilot and Vasundhara Raje can agree to. 

If so this set of Sachin Pilot moves might be a mock charge to extract more concessions of power from Rajasthan INC CM Ashok Gehlot and INC high command.
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jaichind
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« Reply #133 on: July 15, 2020, 05:38:42 AM »

Sachin Pilot has ruled out joining hands with BJP which pretty much removes all his leverage but also opens the door for some sort of reconciliation with INC.  Sachin Pilot is pretty close to the Gandhi family as his father joined politics due to being close friends with Rajiv Gandhi.  Unlike  Jyotiraditya Scindia, Sachin Pilot, who is a leader of the Gurjar community has a significant support base in Rajasthan and him leaving INC would be a big blow to INC vote base in Rajasthan.   Jyotiraditya Scindia leaving INC, on the other hand, has fairly limited impact on the long term INC electoral prospects. 

My sense is that all things equal INC will put in some extra effort to get Sachin Pilot back and perhaps compromise by having him play a role away from Rajasthan politics given the mutuial hostilty between Sachin Pilot and INC CM Ashok Gehlot.   Sachin Pilot should look to another example where something like this has worked out.  After the 1995 BJP victory in the Gujarat assembly elections it was a battle between BJP kingpins Shankersinh Vaghela and Keshubhai Patel to become BJP CM.  Narendra Modi was Shankersinh Vaghela sidekick in the early 1990s but their relationship soured by 1995 and Modi backed Keshubhai Patel who eventually prevailed.  Shankersinh Vaghela threatened to bolt the BJP but was persuaded to stay on in the BJP by his loyalists given key posts in the new Gujarat BJP goverment and Modi being exiled to work in the national BJP and away from Gujarat politics.  Modi was really the mastermind behind the 1995 BJP Gujarat assembly election victory but choose to compromise and accept "exile."  Later on Shankersinh Vaghela rebeled anyway and formed a goverment with INC but then had a falling out with INC leading to the 1998 Gujarat assembly elections  which  Keshubhai Patel's BJP swept.   Keshubhai Patel returned to power but mismangement and corruption had led his regime to become very unpopular by 2001.  BJP high command then brought back Modi from exile to take over as Gujart CM in 2001 to replace  Keshubhai Patel the rest was history for Modi.  Sachin Pilot  accepting som sort of "exile" might actually gain him some political capital with INC and might actually to him taking over a post-Gandhi INC in the future.
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jaichind
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« Reply #134 on: July 17, 2020, 06:11:55 AM »
« Edited: July 17, 2020, 06:18:23 AM by jaichind »

Some updates from Bihar

1) Nitish Kumar and the JD(U) was embarrassed when a $40 million bridge that JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar just inaugurated a month ago collapsed.  The COVID-19 virus also seems to be getting worse in Bihar weight down on the credibility of the Nitish Kumar brand.

2) LJP has been much more vocal in their attack on JD(U) recently and it seems that they might actually bolt from NDA and potentially go back to RJD-INC which they were aligned with before 2014.

2) There is a faction within the BJP that are clearly getting worried about the election with the Nitish Kumar brand on the decline and are pushing for a delay in the election.  The BJP mainstream seems to want to push ahead with the election figuring that a) The Modi brand will carry the BJP b) JD(U) weakness means BJP can bargin for more seats with the threat of forming a BJP-LJP-HAM-VIP alliance (similar to the 2015 BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM alliance with VIP support) or even a possible BJP-RJD alliance.

3) HAM and VIP seems more and more likely to bolt from UPA alliance and go with BJP, with or without JD(U).  RLSP seems to be negative enough on JD(U) no rule this out although if BJP dumps JD(U) RLSP most likely will shift to ally with BJP

4) INC seems to be facing a possible vertical split with half its MLA going over to JD(U).  These sorts of maneuvers does not necessary means the fracturing of the INC base might reflect more on the desperation of JD(U) to use $$$ to rope in vote winners.  If this were to happen in many ways it adds more problems for JD(U) in seat talks with BJP as now JD(U) just added more seat claimants into its camp that they now have to accommodate.

All in all the situation is quite chaotic and fluid with both camps facing internal problems.  One thing that that BJP and JD(U) must be aware is that they cannot take their 2005 and 2010 assembly election victories for granted.  This time around NDA is facing double anti-incumbency where NDA is the ruling bloc both at the federal and state level.   A history of such elections shows that there are reasons to believe that NDA will underperform.

List of all assembly elections where the NDA is both in power at the federal level and the state level

1998 Rajasthan - BJP defeated by INC
1998 Delhi - BJP defeated by INC
1999 AP/Telangana - TDP-BJP defeats INC but this was held at the same time as LS elections
1999 Karnataka - JD(U)-BJP defeated by INC
1999 Maharashtra - SHS-BJP defeated by INC-NCP
2001 TN - DMK-BJP defeated by AIADMK-INC
2002 Punjab - SAD-BJP defeated by INC
2002 Uttarakhand - BJP defeated by INC
2002 UP - BJP defeated by SP
2002 Gujarat - BJP (led by Modi) defeats INC but only after communal riots
2003 HP - INC defeats BJP
2004 Orissa - BJD-BJP defeats INC but this was held at the same time as LS elections
2017 Gujarat - BJP defeats INC but by less than expected margin
2018 MP - BJP defeated by INC
2018 Rajasthan - BJP defeated by INC
2018 Chhattisgarh - BJP defeated by INC
2018 Haryana - BJP edged out INC but under-performed polls and failed to win majority
2018 Maharashtra - BJP-SHS defeated INC-NCP but under-performed polls  
2019 Jharkhand - BJP defeated by JMM-INC-RJD

So when a NDA state government faces re-election with NDA at the helm at the federal level unless the election was held at the same time as a LS election (1999 AP/Telangana and 2004 Orissa) or had communal riots (2002 Gujarat) the NDA state government is usually defeated or at best barely wins under-performing pre-election polls.  

This is the first time Nitish Kumar will have to lead JD(U) into an election where his alliance is in power at the federal level since 2000 when he was defeated by Lalu Yadav's RJD.  2005Feb 2005Oct and 2010 he led JD(U)-BJP into battle with the UPA in power at the federal level and won.  In 2015 he led JD(U)-RJD-INC into battle with NDA in power at the federal level and won.  Now he will face double anti-incumbancy.

It is for this reason I think BJP anxiety is justified.
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jaichind
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« Reply #135 on: July 19, 2020, 07:27:05 AM »

With the ongoing unresolved political crisis in Rajasthan, all INC MLAs are locked up in a Jaipur resort.  It seems while there they nothing to do so they are reduced to taking cooking lessons


Overall things are moving toward a stalemate with the BJP not stepping in to help INC rebel leader Sachin Pilot, Sachin Pilot refusing to back down but would not quit INC either.  BTP which has 2 MLAs have came out to back INC CM Ashok Gehlot. 

So far the BJP has been unusually  inactive in all this.  Leader of RLP, Hanuman Beniwal who is a MP, claims that BJP ex-CM Vasundhara Raje is actually working behind the scenes to help  Ashok Gehlot to beat back Sachin Pilot given her personal animosity toward Sachin Pilot.  Of course RLP is a BJP splinter that split out in the 2018 Rajasthan assembly elections given then BJP leader Hanuman Beniwal rejection of Vasundhara Raje's leadership.  RLP has since made peace with the BJP and ran in 2019 LS election as BJP ally even as Hanuman Beniwal continue to reject Vasundhara Raje.  So Hanuman Beniwal has his own agenda to pushing this narrative.  But the only way this narrative is even viable is the inactivity of the Rajasthan BJP.   Most likely, Vasundhara Raje and the BJP concluded that a)  Sachin Pilot does not have the numbers and b) Sachin Pilot will not yield the CM seat to BJP so there is no point in forming an alliance with Sachin Pilot.
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jaichind
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« Reply #136 on: July 20, 2020, 07:16:41 AM »

https://theprint.in/politics/sachin-pilot-offered-me-rs-35-crore-to-join-bjp-says-congress-mla/464610/

"Sachin Pilot offered me Rs 35 crore to join BJP, says Congress MLA"

If true the going rate the BJP is willing to pay is around $5 million.
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« Reply #137 on: July 21, 2020, 10:12:47 AM »

Isn't that corrupt enough to be illegal.
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jaichind
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« Reply #138 on: July 21, 2020, 12:15:35 PM »

Isn't that corrupt enough to be illegal.

Of course it is.  But there is no proof.  Also $$$ is not enough.  The MLA in question must also view the move as something that will help his or her career, like BJP will nominate them as on the BJP ticket in the by-election AND they are likely to win as a BJP candidate.  The BJP will clearly no call this bribery but will call it a sign on bonus Smiley  In Karnataka and MP the political equations clearly worked.  Not clear it will work here. Note that the INC MLA in question turned down the deal.
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jaichind
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« Reply #139 on: July 29, 2020, 02:12:32 PM »

The Rajasthan crisis comes down to two separate legal issues.   

First, Sachin Pilot and his 19 rebel INC MLAs wants time to work out a deal with the BJP and grow their rebellion.  INC CM Ashok Gehlot want to use the anti-defection law to expel them as MLAs as losing 19 INC rebel MLAs is not enough to threaten his majority.  But the courts ruled that since the 19 rebel INC MLAs did not violate the whip the anti-defection law does not apply.  So INC CM Ashok Gehlot want to call the legislature into session and then issue a whip to all INC MLA in a VONC vote.  But the BJP governor is blocking such a move so courts are needed resolve this.

Second,  one of the reasons why INC CM Ashok Gehlot has numbers on his side is last year the entire 6 member BSP delegation defected and merged their caucus into the INC.  Now at this critical juncture BSP is going to the courts saying that this defection is illegal under the anti-defection law because even though all 6 MLA defected which crosses the 2/3 threshold to avoid the anti-defection law since BSP is a national party this is only valid if the entire national BSP merges into INC.  BSP want the court to nullify this merger and then issue a whip to the BSP MLAs to vote against INC CM Ashok Gehlot in the VONC vote. This argument is legally dubious and flies the the face of other precedents in other states.

Still for the INC CM Ashok Gehlot government to to survive these legal rulings will have to go his way.
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« Reply #140 on: August 01, 2020, 04:34:46 PM »

Given signs that Rahul Gandhi will soon return to the role of INC Prez the battles between the Old Guard (aligned with Sonia Gandhi) and the Young Turks (aligned with Rahul Gandhi) are intensifying within the INC.  If Rahul Gandhi does not take over soon and put a stop to this emerging civil war the INC might actually implode.
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« Reply #141 on: August 03, 2020, 06:15:58 AM »

Aug 5th will be a huge day for the BJP/RSS.  That day will see the  groundbreaking ceremony of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and the final victory of the Hindu nationalist in building the temple which really started as a movement in the 1980s.  The Ram temple movement was key to the rise of the BJP starting in the 1980s.

Also it seems that Lord Ram's Images, Ayodhya Temple Model To Be Displayed At New York's Times Square On August 5
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lord-rams-images-ayodhya-temple-model-to-be-displayed-at-new-yorks-times-square-on-august-5-2271234

 
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« Reply #142 on: August 03, 2020, 07:08:46 AM »

In Bihar it seems LJP is coming out against elections in Oct 2020 joining ranks of RJD-INC in asking for a delay.  JD(U) is eager for an earlier election before the impact of the virus gets worse but RJD is determined to delay it for the exactly that reason.  LJP coming out for a delay is another sign that LJP might exit from the JD(U)-BJP-LJP alliance.  On the other hand there are signs that HAM might switch back to NDA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #143 on: August 07, 2020, 03:45:30 PM »

India Today semi-annual Mood of the Nation poll.

Best choice for PM
Modi                 66%
Rahul Gandhi      8%
Sonia Gandhi      5%

Modi miles ahead



Modi's handling of Covid-19 pandemic
Outstanding      29%
Good                48%
Average            18%
Poor                   5%

Was India's response to Covid-19 better or worse than other countries
Better               43%
At Par               48%
Worse                7%

There is a good argument that India's response has been poor in absolute and relative terms.  But India's voters gives the Modi regime high marks.


Rating of INC as opposition party
Outstanding        9%
Good                 35%
Average             32%
Poor                  21%

INC's position poor and not getting any better with infighting.
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jaichind
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« Reply #144 on: August 08, 2020, 02:16:22 PM »

More details from India Today's MOTN poll


 


If LS elections were held now the result would be

           Vote share             Seats
NDA       42%(+1%)       316 (+13)
  BJP        36%(--)            283 (+12)
UPA       27%(-2%)          93 (-15)           
  INC        19%(-1%)         49 (-11)
Rest      31%(+1%)        134 (+2)

Very little change from Jan 2020 poll and a replication of 2019 LS elections with the only difference that SHS is no longer in NDA and will cost NDA/BJP seats

The poll also gamed out how would thinks look if UPA got bigger by bring in more allies


If 17 opposition parties which includes SP, BSP, TDP, Left Front, AIUDF, RLD etc etc join UPA

NDA will still win but BJP will miss majority by itself

           Vote share         Seats
NDA        42%                301
  BJP          36%                269
UPA         39%               153
  INC          19%                53
Others     19%                 89

If in addition to 17 opposition parties joining UPA, SHS, AITC, and AAP join UPA.  Then NDA narrowly wins majority with UPA beating out NDA in terms of vote share

           Vote share         Seats
NDA        42%                282
  BJP          36%                250
UPA         45%               212
  INC          19%                55
Others     13%                 49

I think it will never work out this way as all these parties vote bases will be hard to merge.   49 does seem large for Others in such a scenario.   I guess it will be BJD YSRCP TRS AIMIM.  I find it hard for these 4 parties to egt to 49 seats.  In such a polarized election I doubt BJD and YSRCP can repeat the 21 and 25 seats they won last time.
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« Reply #145 on: August 08, 2020, 03:57:58 PM »

Do you think if India adopted UK or CDN style leadership elections, the Gandhi family would still have total control over their party or would they lose a primary
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« Reply #146 on: August 08, 2020, 04:12:35 PM »

Do you think if India adopted UK or CDN style leadership elections, the Gandhi family would still have total control over their party or would they lose a primary
The Gandhi family would win as they are popular within the party
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« Reply #147 on: August 08, 2020, 04:45:59 PM »

Do you think if India adopted UK or CDN style leadership elections, the Gandhi family would still have total control over their party or would they lose a primary

The MOTN poll actually sort of polled this.



The sum of support for the various Gandhi clan adds up to a near majority.

There is no alternative to the Gandhi clan in the INC.  They, on paper, have national appeal and does not have its political base in any particular state which means they are not a threat to various local INC kinpins.  Their main problem is that their national brand is now far weaker than Modi versus the 2004-2012 period when the Sonia Gandhi brand was fairly strong. 

The best way forward is for INC and the Gandhi clan to recognize the fact that the Gandhi clan can no longer pull in the vote by themselves and run the INC more like a franchise for various local center to center-left political forces.
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« Reply #148 on: August 11, 2020, 05:28:09 AM »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/news/toi-daily-sachin-pilot-meets-congress-leaders-rahul-gandhi-and-priyanka-gandhi-vadra-rolls-back-his-rebellion/videoshow/77476111.cms

In Rajasthan it seems that INC rebel Sachin Pilot has ended his rebellion after meeting with Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi.  Most likely he could not get the numbers and/or BJP's conditions were to steep.  For now the Rajasthan INC crisis is over.
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« Reply #149 on: August 12, 2020, 06:29:33 AM »

ECI has made it clear that Bihar assembly election will go ahead most likely in Oct 2020.  Main problem is that the COVID-19 peak in Bihar is expect to be about the same time. There is an argument that perhaps by that time Bihar would be closer to herd immunity so it will not matter.
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