2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar

[CumbrianLefty]

Coronavirus not affecting elections here yet?

[jaichind]

Coronavirus not affecting elections here yet?

The next big assembly election is in Bihar which is due in Oct so that is some time off.  The AP local election did get delayed by 6 weeks while the MP floor test also got delayed by 10 days or so due to the virus delaying the INC defeat there by a few days.  The overall level of virus infection in India has been quite low so far.

[CumbrianLefty]

Coronavirus not affecting elections here yet?

The next big assembly election is in Bihar which is due in Oct so that is some time off.  The AP local election did get delayed by 6 weeks while the MP floor test also got delayed by 10 days or so due to the virus delaying the INC defeat there by a few days.  The overall level of virus infection in India has been quite low so far.

Yes, that has been noted. Climate factors, cases being "undercounted" - or quite possibly both?

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/india/ex-cji-ranjan-gogoi-nominated-to-rajya-sabha-kapil-sibal-compares-former-cji-with-justice-hr-khanna-accuses-him-of-compromising-integrity-8157571.html

ex-Supreme Court Chief Justice Ranjan Gogoi who retired from the bench a few months ago have been appointed by the President of India to RS.    Given his role in handing down the Ayodhya judgement the opposition is accusing him and the BJP of having a quid pro quo.

[jaichind]

Coronavirus not affecting elections here yet?

The next big assembly election is in Bihar which is due in Oct so that is some time off.  The AP local election did get delayed by 6 weeks while the MP floor test also got delayed by 10 days or so due to the virus delaying the INC defeat there by a few days.  The overall level of virus infection in India has been quite low so far.

Yes, that has been noted. Climate factors, cases being "undercounted" - or quite possibly both?

I think it is mostly climate factors.  For sure they do not have many testing kits or are even doing much testing but overall it seems that this is really not going to be a big deal in India.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/madhya-pradesh-floor-test-crisis-kamal-nath-shivraj-singh-chouhan-supreme-court-1657253-2020-03-19

In MP the INC speaker has accepted the resignation of the 16 INC rebel MLAs.  If so then it seems a certainty that the INC government will fall soon and be replaced by a BJP government.   

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/madhya-pradesh-government-floor-test-live-updates-mp-government-crisis-kamal-nath-jyotiraditya-scindia-bjp-congress-latest-news-11584680307808.html

MP INC CM Kamal Nath resigns with 16 rebel INC MLAs resigning and going over to the BJP.    BJP is set to form government.  Former BJP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan is the front runner to return to become CM again.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/22-rebel-madhya-pradesh-congress-mlas-meet-bjp-chief-in-scindias-presence/articleshow/74749039.cms

22 INC rebels join BJP.  I assume all of them have or will resign and run in a by-election as the BJP candidate.  So just like last year we will have a mini-assembly election in MP in a few months with these 22 by-elections (if not more.)  BJP is destined to win a majority if not vast majority of such by-elections.  The CAA issue will work to the BJP advantage in places like MP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

West Bengal will delay their municipal elections

[jaichind]

Modi shut down the country for 21 days to try to slow a possible surge in infections.  In the higher income areas it seems to be working.  The largest impact are of course the informal daily wage cash sector.  Many day laborers which are unable to make a living in the cities are trying to get back home in rural areas.  But with all transportation shut down many of them are walking home over hundreds of miles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRV2T9VL1Qo 

[jaichind]

http://www.jankibaat.com/complete-lockdown-has-made-people-more-serious-and-aware-about-covid-19-jan-ki-baat-state-of-nation-survey/16912/

Jan Ki Baat poll shows huge support for Modi regime measures to deal with virus

Approval of government response at 81%


95% support Modi 21 day lockdown


46% think the virus is a PRC conspiracy


only 4% think there will be no impact on economy


The main weakness of Modi-BJP since the 2019 LS landslide has been the weak economy.  Now this virus not only consolidates support for the regime but also allows Modi to blame an external virus for any economic problems.

[Continential]

As expected, most people are dumbasses in India.

[jaichind]

With India slowly headed out of lockdown political activity is expect to increase.  In Bihar where the assembly election is still expected to take place in Oct-Nov of 2020, JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar is seems to have handled the virus crisis poorly.  But RJD also seems to be in crisis where RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav and son of jailed Lalu Jadav is facing ever rising resistance within RJD as well as distrust from allies like INC HAM and RLSP.  Furthermore the prospect of a rapprochement between Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav seem as remote as ever.

In such a situation where the Nitish Kumar brand is damaged the BJP might start liking its chances in a BJP (most likely with LJP as an ally) vs JD(U) vs RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM battle.  RLSP and HAM whose leaders are JD(U) rebels and hostile to Nitish Kumar most likely in such a scenario will re-join the NDA.  In 2010 and 2015 the Nitish Kumar brand was a big plus.  This time around it might become a negative and the BJP will most likely try to find a way to decouple itself from Nitish Kumar and most likely sweep the 2020 Bihar assembly elections.  Main issue for BJP is the lack of a CM face although that can potentially be made up for by using Modi to be the face of the BJP which is effective in elections sometimes when the BJP is not the ruling party.

[jaichind]

Former INC Chhattisgarh CM Ajit Jogi and now leader of INC splinter JCC passed away at age 74.  Most likely JCC will now merge back into INC.

What I remember most about Ajit Jogi was his narrow LS loss in 2014 running as the INC candidate.  He was running to regain his old seat of Mahasamund against the BJP incumbent Chandu Lal Sahu.  What Aijt Jogi did was to hire 11 candidates with the same name as his opponent (Chandu Lal Sahu) to run and split the vote.  It almost worked as he lost only 133 worked.

[jaichind]

With the India lock-down winding down hopefully political activity picks up again.  The main events that are coming up soon is a slew of Upper House elections as a bunch of Upper House MPs terms are up.  These elections should increase the relative power of NDA but not get NDA to a majority, yet, in the Upper House. 

Also coming up is a MP mini-assembly election with 24 by-elections.  This necessitated by the INC leader Scindia  defecting with 22 of his faction over to the BJP in March bring the BJP back to power.  Just like Karnataka the BJP is certain to re-nominate the Scindia faction MLAs as BJP candidates with the INC going all out to punish the INC rebels.  BSP will also run its slate of candidate, breaking the old BSP rule of not running in by-elections.  Most likely the BJP will sweep these polls as the voters will be voting for political stability.    Given the relative BJP strength in MP it will be 2-3 election cycles before the INC will have a shot at coming back to power in MP.  The only real hope for INC is 2023 which will be the 9th year of the Modi regime where anti-incumbency might help INC win.  If INC does not win in 2023 it will be another 10 years before it can come back to power in MP.

[jaichind]

The virus crisis hit Maharashtra hard and seems to have exacerbated tensions in the SHS-NCP-INC government.     There seems signs that the government might collapse under its own weight although it is not clear what will take its place.  SHS complains that at the ground the NCP is running the government but SHS will get the blame for problems.  INC is frustrated by the low share of spoils and the the performance of the SHS led government and seems to have washed its hands of any results of the government.  It is possible that BJP-NCP will make a deal and form a government or BJP might break either SHS or INC or both.  In the end Rahul Gandhi is the most likely person to pull the plug on this government although perhaps NCP supremo Sharad Pawar might come in to save it.   One way or another I would expect the BJP will not act until the current crisis is over.

[jaichind]

Given the perception that the Bihar government under Nitish Kumar mismanaged the migrant worker issue some factions within the BJP have been pushing for a delay of the Oct 2020 assembly elections fearing BJP losses in rural districts dragged down by Nitish Kumar.  This seems to have been turned down by  Nitish Kumar who did not want the election held under Presidential Rule where his administration will not be in position to help JD(U) candidates.

The BJP has mostly accepted that the election will be held on time and have started a massive virtual election campaign online

"BJP set to technology-driven political activities ahead of Bihar polls"
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bjp-set-to-technology-driven-political-activities-ahead-of-bihar-polls/articleshow/76114647.cms

It seems the BJP plan is to have 100K voters reached for every one of the 243 election districts.  This is quite ambitious given that each district usually have around 280K eligible voters and most likely around 160K votes to be cast.

[jaichind]

June 19th is the next round of Upper House elections.

Right now the balance of power in the Upper house are

NDA 106 (BJP 77)
Pro-NDA 12 (BJD YSRCP SDF)
UPA 56 (INC 36)
Anti-NDA 49 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)
Vacant 22

19 out of the 22 vacant will be elected on June 19th.

The BJP has up until now, relied on pro-NDA parties to get them over the majority mark.  The BJP is hoping that with these elections and Upper House elections in UP and Uttarakhand in Nov 2020 that NDA can get to a majority on its own.

To that end there has been all sorts of BJP maneuvers in Gujarat where one would expect given the numbers of MLAs the 4 vacant seat would split BJP 2 INC 2 to lure INC MLAs to defect to get it to BJP 3 INC 1.  So far over 8 INC MLAs have resigned since March.  It is said that the going rate for these INC MLAs to defect has been around $3 million each.  INC has moved all their MLAs to a resort in INC ruled Rajasthan.  

I did a back of the envelope projection of Upper House seats at the end of 2020, end of 2021, end of 2022, end of 2023 and end of 2024 making assumptions on how various assembly elections will go and that the current alliance configurations does not change.

I get

End of 2020
NDA 121 (BJP 91)
Pro-NDA 17 (BJD YSRCP SDF MNF)
UPA 59 (INC 38)
Anti-NDA 45 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)
Vacant 3

Which would be a bare NDA majority so in de facto terms NDA will need pro-NDA parties to pass bills


End of 2021
NDA 121 (BJP 92)
Pro-NDA 17 (BJD YSRCP SDF MNF)
UPA 60 (INC 39)
Anti-NDA 44 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)
Vacant 3
  
Still bare NDA majority so in de facto terms NDA will need pro-NDA parties to pass bills


End of 2022
NDA 115 (BJP 89)
Pro-NDA 20 (BJD YSRCP SDF MNF)
UPA 67 (INC 42)
Anti-NDA 43 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)

NDA loses majority as pro-NDA victories in 2016-2017 in various assembly elections gets overturned in newer elections and defectors to BJP come up for re-election and could not win due to lack of BJP MLAs in certain states.  All this more than erases gains the BJP should make based on gains in the 2021 WB assembly election.  The flip side to this is the TN and Kerala 2021 assembly elections will be very pro-UPA while the BJP is expected to lose ground in UP 2022 assembly elections even if it holds on to a majority there.  Diddo for Bihar 2020 assembly elections.


End of 2023
NDA 116 (BJP 90)
Pro-NDA 20 (BJD YSRCP SDF MNF)
UPA 68 (INC 43)
Anti-NDA 41 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)

Not much change. NDA still needs pro-NDA parties to pass bills.


End of 2024
NDA 107 (BJP 81)
Pro-NDA 23 (BJD YSRCP SDF MNF)
UPA 73 (INC 48)
Anti-NDA 42 (AITC SP CPM BSP SHS AAP TDP PDP JD(S) CPI NPF)

NDA loses further ground as new Upper House elections reflect assembly results that tend to revert to the mean from the 2016-2017 pro-NDA assembly election results.

So my projection is that the Modi II regime (2019-2024) most likely will fail in its goal of getting a solid NDA majority during its tenure and will still rely on pro-NDA parties to gets its majority. The alternative is just poaching non-NDA MPs but that will only hurt the BJP image and will not work on the long run.

[Continential]

The "Opposition" and most of its governments has been doing pretty good. 

[jaichind]

The "Opposition" and most of its governments has been doing pretty good. 

The divide seems to be more about North-South than ruling-opposition.  JD(U) ruled Bihar and BJP ruled UP did seems to have messed up the migrant worker issue but so have AAP ruled Delhi.  SHS-NCP-INC ruled Maharashtra also seems to have had the largest outbreak.  On the other hand it seems Southern Kerala and TN seems to have handle this crisis fairly well.

[jaichind]

It seems that in Manipur INC is about to turn the tables on BJP and topple the BJP government just like BJP did to JD(S)-INC in Karnataka in 2019 and INC in MP earlier this year.

In the 2017 Manipur assembly election the incumbent INC government under CM Okram Ibobi Singh was narrowly defeated but retained the largest party position

INC    28
BJP    21
NPF     4
NPP     4
AITC    1
LJP      1
Ind      1

Due to internal INC factional fighting BJP was able to form the government by roping in all non-INC MLA (including the 1 Muslim Independent).  Later on 8 INC MLAs pledged to support the BJP CM.  1 of the 8 INC MLA has been disqualified for defecting to BJP and the 7 others have lawsuits pending for defection.

Now, right before the Upper House election tomorrow where all Manipur MLA will vote between the BJP and INC candidate the BJP government seems ready to fall.     The 4 NPP MLAs, 1 AITC MLA, and the 1 Muslim independent MLA have withdrawn support from the BJP AND 3 BJP MLAs have resigned.

So the current Manipur house would be

Government
BJP   18  (21 minus 3)
NPF    4
LJP     1
-------------------
        23

INC   20  (28 minus 8 )
NPP    4
AITC   1
Ind     1
------------------------
        26

with the ruling bloc thrown into the minority.  It seems INC ex-CM Okram Ibobi Singh is behind all this with tomorrow's Upper House vote a way to prove his majority by producing a shocking INC victory over BJP.   After that INC might move forward to take over with a new ruling bloc including NPP AITC and the 1 independent.  

What is bizarre about this setup is if it comes to fruition that NPP is a Meghalaya based party where it is the ruling party with BJP support and with the INC as its main rival in the state.  NPF is a Nagaland based party where NPF is allied with INC in opposition to NPF splinter NDPP who is allied with BJP.  The alliance patterns would be inverted in Manipur.  The reason for this is obvious, as INC leader Okram Ibobi Singh has a fairly anti-Naga image and has his base in non-Naga urban Imphal in opposition to rural Manipur where Nagas are more numerous.  Ergo NPF could never go with INC in Manipur while Okram Ibobi Singh is in charge.  On the flip side Okram Ibobi Singh being seen as the non-Naga leader makes it easier for him to poach non-Naga MLAs outside the INC which he seems to be doing.

Tomorrow's result in the Upper House elections for Manipur would be quite exciting.

[jaichind]

BJP wins Manipur RS election.  It seems the Manipur speaker allowed 3 INC rebels out of 7 such INC rebels (1 already have been disqualified from the assembly for defection to BJP) to vote in the election even though they were barred by the courts from entering the assembly which in addition to the now pro-INC AITC MLA not voting gave the BJP a narrow victory. So the battle for power in Manipur will go on for a while as the earlier advantage of the INC camp is not what it seemed.

[jaichind]

Results coming out for RS elections.  Other than Manipur which last minute shifts indicated a possible INC victory everything else going as expected.

AP  - YSRCP 4  TDP 0
Gujarat - not out yet but most likely BJP 3 INC 1, possible BJP 2 INC 2
Jharkhand - BJP 1 JMM 1 INC 0
MP - BJP 2 INC 1
Manipur - BJP 1 INC 0
Meghalaya - NPP 1 INC 0
Rajasthan - INC 2 BJP 1
Mizoram - not out yet but almost certainly MNF 1 ZPM 0 INC 0

[jaichind]

BJP narrowly wins in Gujarat 3-1 over INC in RS elections. 

So with these elections out of the way the RS should be

NDA 115 (BJP 85, AIADMK 9, JD(U) 5, SAD 3, LJP1 , RPI(A) 1, AGP 1, BPF 1, PMK 1, TMC 1, NPP 1, pro-BJP Independent 2, BJP nominated 4)
Pro-NDA 17 (BJD 9, YSRCP 6, SDF 1, MNF 1)
UPA 61 (INC 40, DMK 7, RJD 5, NCP 4, IUML 1,KEC(M) 1, MDMK 1, JMM 1, pro-INC independent 1)
Anti-NDA 49 (AITC 13, SP 8, TRS 7, CPM 5, BSP 4, SHS 3, AAP 3, TDP 1, PDP 2, JD(S) 1, CPI 1,  NPF 1)
Vacant 3

So NDA still just short of majority.  After the UP and Uttarakhand RS elections in Nov then NDA could get to a bare majority but they are unlikely to grow that majority in the future and will most likely lose that majority in 2022.

[jaichind]

At this stage in Bihar it is clear it is advantage JD(U)-BJP-LJP due to disarray in the opposition bloc.  Within the RJD-INC-RLSP-HAM-VIP alliance there are signs that HAM-VIP will split off due to their objection to RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav (son of jailed RJD supremo Lalu Yadav) being projected as the CM candidate for the opposition alliance.  INC in theory is trying to keep the alliance together but it is clear factions of the INC are also for breaking the alliance with RJD.  The fact is that Lalu Yadav is critical to turning out Dalit-OBC-Muslim vote in favor of RJD but with him behind bars the RJD party is dramatically weaker.  So the real objection to  Tejashwi Yadav is more about the fact that the Lalu magic does not seem to be rub off on his son.

In the meantime former BJP leader Yashwant Sinha who has a JD background and is now more clearly in the opposition camp has come out of semi-retirement to form a new party and seems determined to contest in Bihar.  His yet unnamed party already seems to have picked up a bunch RJD RLSP and HAM rebels and will future split the anti-NDA vote if they contest later this year. 

I guess one good news for the UPA is that JD(U) rebel Prashant Kishor attempt at a third front mostly petered out and will not be a threat to split to the anti-NDA vote.  Most likely Prashant Kishor will join forces with UPA.

Clearly the fact that the JD(U) government has not handled the virus crisis and migrant worker issue well will clearly weight down the NDA vote. But the BJP machine and nationalist appeals based on border clashes with PRC will most overcome this with a hoped for rally around the flag effect later this year.