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  Talk Elections
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  2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
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Author Topic: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar  (Read 3256 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #25 on: January 21, 2020, 03:01:59 pm »

SAD breaking off its alliance with BJP in Delhi feels like a big deal and might be an advanced signal that SAD might break off its alliance with BJP for the 2023 Punjab assembly election which would be huge.  If the SAD is headed in that direction it most likely be because SAD sense that it might lose its Sikh base to a second coming of AAP in Punjab over the CAA issue. 

INC is not a real threat to SAD for the Sikh vote as there will always be a significant anti-INC Sikh base in Punjab.  But AAP is a different matter.  In 2017 AAP was poised to push SAD to third place to capturing the SAD Sikh base.  Then AAP imploded allowing for the revival of SAD in Punjab to become the main opposition to INC.  The AAP decline continued after 2017 fortifying the SAD position as the main opposition to INC.  Now due to  anti-CAA sentiments with the Sikh base SAD might sense that an alliance with the BJP will drive anti-INC but anti-CAA Sikh base over to AAP and SAD has to move to try to prevent that.

 
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: January 21, 2020, 03:14:26 pm »

BJP offering JD(U) 2 seats and LJP 1 seats seems be an attempt to capture the Bihari immigrant vote but also to try to hold the JD(U)-BJP-LJP alliance in Bihar together for the 2020 Bihar assembly elections later in the year.

There seems to be some blow-back within the JD(U) over the alliance.  The antj-BJP anti-CAA faction of JD(U) are voicing concern about a BJP-JD(U) alliance in a state outside of Bihar.   The main force within JD(U) centers around Prashant Kishor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prashant_Kishor).  Prashant Kishor is a political strategist that worked for Modi in the 2012 BJP Gujarat assembly election and was a key strategist for the 2014 Modi-BJP LS campaign.  Prashant Kishor, it seems, was expecting some sort of role in the BJP government at the federal level and got nothing.  He then shifted to an anti-BJP stance and worked for the 2015 RJD-JD(U)-INC Bihar assembly campaign that smashed the NDA and then worked for the 2017 INC Punjab campaign.  In 2018 he joined the JD(U) and seems to continue working with non-BJP parties including BJP allies that might not see eye-to-eye with the BJP to outright anti-BJP parties.  It is said that Prashant Kishor is also working with AAP this Delhi election and now he might be working against his own party if he continues his work with AAP.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: January 21, 2020, 03:29:54 pm »

https://www.epw.in/journal/2020/2/special-articles/continuing-practice-untouchability-india.html

Intersecting report on "Continuing Practice Untouchability in India"

Brahmins practices it the most due to most likely religiously beliefs.  It is interesting that OBC practices it more than non-Brahmins upper castes.  Even some Dalits practice it (to other Dalits lower down in the social hierarchy).   Sort of proves that part of this is about the need to feel socially superior to someone else.  Just like in the Old South sometimes White trash would enforce Jim Crow more aggressively than upper income Whites.


Education have limited impact on the practicing of untouchability


The practice of untouchability  centers around the Hindu heartland.  More urbanized Maharashtra has lower instances of the  practice of untouchability  but fairly urban Gujarat have a high instance of practice of untouchability.
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jaichind
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« Reply #28 on: January 25, 2020, 09:16:44 am »

India Today MOTN poll

For LS
        vote    seats
NDA  41%    303
  BJP 36%     271
UPA  29%     108
  INC 20%      60




Not that much change from 2019 LS election other than SHS leaving NDA cost NDA a bunch of votes and seats.  BJP and INC vote bases mostly same as 2019 LS election with a slight swing toward INC

Modi still way ahead of Rahul Gandhi for PM and seen as the the greatest Indian PM ever




Near majority support removing Article 370 for J&K

 


View on CAA seems mixed with plurality for CAA but a plurality does see CAA as a BJP political tool versus a legitimate policy concern  

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jaichind
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« Reply #29 on: January 25, 2020, 09:22:29 am »

Telengana municipal elections sees TRS with a massive landslide victory with BJP and INC fighting for a distance second.


TRS was re-elected in 2018 assembly elections and being that it is only been less than two years since re-election one would expect TRS to sweep these sort of local elections. Still the scale of TRS victory shows what a force TRS is at the local level.
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: January 25, 2020, 09:24:41 am »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/assembly-elections/delhi-assembly-elections-2020-congress-aap-battle-for-same-vote-base-in-delhi-polls/story-5T3Iy5O1vrR5Gz46q1EeVP.html

"BJP banking on good show by Congress in Delhi polls. Here’s why"

It is pretty sad these days that BJP is hoping that INC does well in Delhi.  Since most of the AAP base came from the INC base, INC retaking some of its old base from AAP is the only way BJP can win.
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jaichind
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« Reply #31 on: January 25, 2020, 10:01:11 am »

After the TRS landslide in municipal elections in Telengana, TRS leader KCR made common cause with Arvind Kejriwal's AAP in Delhi by indicating that AAP is heading toward a landslide victory in Delhi and that regional parties like TRS and AAP will continue its non-INC anti-BJP position of anti-CAA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #32 on: January 27, 2020, 10:14:11 am »

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/delhi-polls-aap-strong-but-bjp-gaining-steadily/1719039

Latest C-voter Delhi tracking poll has

AAP  50.6 (-3.2)
BJP   31.2(+2.0)
INC    5.3(+1.9)

AAP losing ground but well ahead.   Most polls like this overestimate the incumbent but the scale of the AAP lead  is large enough to be sure that AAP is well ahead.  I suspect in the AAP wins a narrow victory over BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #33 on: January 27, 2020, 10:31:18 am »

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/desh-ka-mood-nda-to-get-330-seats-if-elections-held-today-70-want-modi-as-pm-1149162

ABP-C-Voter national poll has NDA winning 330 seats if LS held today.  It has

             Vote share        Seats
NDA          44%              330
UPA           25%              130

Not clear how the poll handled SHS leaving NDA.  I assume they like India Today's MOTN poll assumes that SHS will just run separately from NDA and UPA.

The NDA seats by key states are

UP- 69
Bihar - 36
MP-25
Rajasthan - 21
Gujarat - 26
Maharashtra - 21
Assam - 10
Delhi - 7
Bengal - 22
Karnataka - 22

Which has NDA gaining in UP from 2019 due to SP-BSP split.  NDA seems to lose a bit of ground in non-UP Hindi heartland states like Bihar MP and Rajasthan.   SHS leaving NDA clearly will cost BJP in Maharashtra.   NDA gains a seat in Assam shows the anti-CAA protest there did not hurt BJP.  In Karnataka BJP loses a bit of ground as INC and JD(S) split up which means that INC and JD(S) rebel voters switch back.   In WB BJP seems to have surged to 22 beating out AITC.

These results are counter-intuitive as one would expect CAA would help consolidate BJP strength in the Hindi heartland but hurt BJP in Assam and WB.  The opposite seems to be taking place.

As for PM preference in a 2 way race it is Modi 70 Rahul Gandhi 25
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jaichind
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« Reply #34 on: January 30, 2020, 10:42:51 am »

In Delhi it seems that the person leading the BJP campaign is really former BJP president and current Home Minister Amit Shah.  The reasons for this seems to many but comes down to

a) BJP is behind so if Modi took too big a role and BJP loses badly then the Modi brand would be damanaged
b) Amit Shah is the Modi preferred successor to Modi within the BJP anyway so it makes sense to give him more exposure and ownership
c) Amit Shah is better at running low level attrition battles based on local issue versus Modi's strength in projecting a overall national narrative

In the meantime SAD and BJP seems to have made up with SAD backing BJP even though SAD will not be running any candidates.   I suspect the damage with Sikh voters is already done anyway.
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jaichind
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« Reply #35 on: February 01, 2020, 07:13:24 am »

https://news.abplive.com/videos/news/india-aap-likely-to-get-47-votes-in-delhi-polls-siyasat-ka-sensex-31012020-1152009

"AAP likely to get 47% votes in Delhi Polls | Siyasat Ka Sensex"

Siyasat Ka Sensex data lab seems to come out with a projection of

AAP   47%
BJP    37%
INC     4%

The momentum seems to be on the BJP side and the gap between the two is most likely closer since INC clearly will get above 4% of the vote and most of that will be at the expense of AAP.  AAP still has the edge but most likely their victory will be very narrow.
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jaichind
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« Reply #36 on: February 01, 2020, 08:11:48 am »

http://www.businessworld.in/article/NewsX-Polstrat-Opinion-Poll-Says-AAP-Set-To-Win-In-Delhi-Again-BJP-To-Get-12-15-Seats/26-01-2020-182753/

"NewsX-Polstrat Opinion Poll Says AAP Set To Win In Delhi Again, BJP To Get 12-15 Seats"

NewsX poll has it at

           Seats     Vote share
AAP     53-56       48.56%
BJP      12-15       31.70%
INC       2-4           9.64%



This poll was from a few days ago and it seems BJP had picked up support since.  Still a good poll for AAP.  INC at 2-4 seats with 9.64% seems to indicate that the Muslim vote has swung back to INC from 2015 even as INC Hindu votes have shifted to AAP.  The concentration of Muslims in a few seats means that INC wins 2-4 seats.

NewsX poll of polls shows a similar result

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Ishan
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« Reply #37 on: February 03, 2020, 09:52:13 am »

From what I've seen, the BJP is perceived as a mostly Hindi party in Southern India, and so unless if the INC falls apart, even then the BJP wouldn't do well in Southern India.
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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: February 03, 2020, 10:03:59 am »

The BJP is clearly trying to nationalize the Delhi assembly elections around CAA and anti-CAA protests.  The BJP wants to link the anti-CAA protests to the Indian Left and then tie the Indian Left to Pakistan.  AAP knows this is a losing battle because if all the BJP voters of the 2019 LS elections voted BJP then AAP will lose in a landslide.  AAP instead is trying to fight on local issues. 


Last few days the BJP is gaining traction in getting the media and voter discussions to be around topics it wants to fight on: CAA vs anti-CAA protests.   A BJP minister in a rally led a chant "shoot the traitors" which while making the BJP look extreme does shift the discussion toward issues of CAA and anti-CAA protests.  There we some shootings by pro-BJP activists toward supposed anti-CAA protests pretty much did the same thing: Making BJP lose some moderates votes but shift the discussion toward national issues which would pay the BJP back several fold.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #39 on: February 03, 2020, 10:07:11 am »

From what I've seen, the BJP is perceived as a mostly Hindi party in Southern India, and so unless if the INC falls apart, even then the BJP wouldn't do well in Southern India.

Mostly true but INC is not doing that well in the Dravidian South where other than Kerala INC has pretty much lost ground to regional parties.  Also BJP is fairly strong in Karnataka and is making headway in Telangana (in urban Telangana BJP is the main opposition to TRS while in rural Telangana INC is the main opposition to TRS.)  In the deep South (TN and Kerala) the BJP brand is toxic under Modi mostly because of the view that under Modi the BJP has become a the Hindi party.  But if the BJP can dominate Northern India then the Deep South regional parties can be co-oped into power sharing by the BJP.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #40 on: February 03, 2020, 10:23:17 am »

On the negative side for the BJP in Delhi, it seems INC is running a very low key campaign and pretty much de facto giving up ahead of time to give the AAP the best chance of beating back BJP.  I assume the INC is hoping that AAP precipitates in the next LS election in Delhi.
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jaichind
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« Reply #41 on: February 03, 2020, 03:55:34 pm »

Times Now-IPSOS  poll for Delhi has it at

           Seats          Vote Share
AAP       57                 52%
BJP       12                  34%
INC        1                    4%




By 51-24 margin voters are opposed to anti-CAA protests


AAP leads across the board on issues
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jaichind
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« Reply #42 on: February 05, 2020, 03:39:20 pm »

In another attempt to nationalize the Delhi assembly election Modi announces the formation of a truest to build the Ram temple in Ayodhya.  This was stipulated in the SC judgement on Ayodhya but the timing of the announcement right before the Delhi assembly election clearly is an attempt to woo Hindu voters toward the BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #43 on: February 05, 2020, 10:37:37 pm »

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/delhi-election-2020-abp-cvoter-opinion-poll-kejriwal-led-aap-shaheen-bagh-bjp-issue-1154278

Final ABP-C-Voter poll

           Seats     Vote Share
AAP       50           45.6%
BJP       18           37.1%
INC        2             4.4%

BJP clearly gaining ground.  Based on this it is pretty clear that AAP scale of victory most likely is overstated in many other polls given the momentum of the BJP and that AAP's victory will most likely be narrow.  INC levels of support is still the big X-factor.  The better the INC does the smaller the scale of AAP's victory.

Newsx based on this did a poll of polls which of course show all polls have AAP well ahead

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jaichind
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« Reply #44 on: February 05, 2020, 10:41:31 pm »

India News-Neta poll has it

AAP   54
BJP   15
INC    1

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jaichind
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« Reply #45 on: February 05, 2020, 10:43:40 pm »

ABP Delhi tracking poll does show BJP cutting into AAP's lead over time

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jaichind
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« Reply #46 on: February 07, 2020, 08:43:39 pm »

Voting to start soon in Delhi.  Not sure if there will be exit polls.  Hopefully there will be.
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jaichind
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« Reply #47 on: February 07, 2020, 10:14:19 pm »

My gut feeling is that the BJP won the election campaign and should out perform pre election polls in the exit polls.   AAP should still win based on winning over the INC base. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #48 on: February 08, 2020, 06:36:20 am »

Turnout down around 10% so far from 2015

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jaichind
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« Reply #49 on: February 08, 2020, 07:58:12 am »

Anti-BJP Democracy Times exit poll for Delhi

BJP: 04-08
INC: 00-01
AAP: 61-66
OTH: 00-01
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