|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 05, 2020, 08:39:29 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Babette d'Interlaken)
  2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 Print
Author Topic: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar  (Read 3227 times)
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: February 11, 2020, 01:44:38 am »

This is the 4th BJP setback in assembly elections since its 2019 LS landslide victory (Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and now Delhi.)  In the end Modi is not Indira Gandhi who in the 1971-1972 period and in the 1980 carried INC to victory across the board in assembly election victories after a LS landslide.   Modi's appeal seems to be limited only relative to national security issues and not across the board as Indira Gandhi seems to have achieved.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: February 11, 2020, 01:50:13 am »

NDA vote share fall in state assembly elections since the 2019 LS landslide vs the 2019 LS NDA vote share

                    2019LS      Assembly
Haryana        58.21%       36.69%
Maharashtra  51.34%       42.66%
Jharkhand     56.00%       35.84%
Delhi            56.86%        40.23% (for now)
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: February 11, 2020, 01:52:01 am »

One of the reasons AAP rebounded from the 2019 LS debacle is that they stopped trying to attack Modi.  AAP's campaign recognized Modi's popularity in Delhi and ran on the position that there is no reason why a pro-Modi voter cannot vote AAP in the state election and that AAP welcome such votes.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: February 11, 2020, 02:06:09 am »

Current seat count are (BJP gained a bit)

                        Seats     Diff on 2015
AAP                    56           -11
BJP-JD(U)-LJP     14          +11
INC-RJD              0              0

Vote share wise on ECI site which has a greater lag has it at (NULLs not filtered out)  

AAP                  53.01%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP   40.47%
INC-RJD             4.30%

Despite this heavy defeat the NDA vote share is the highest for ever in Delhi assembly elections since 1993 which was the last time BJP won a majority in a Delhi assembly election.

While AAP gained some Dalit and Muslim INC voters it seems that some of the INC Upper caste vote went over to the BJP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: February 11, 2020, 06:47:55 am »

With most of the vote counted it is a heavy landslide defeat of BJP

                        Seats     Diff on 2015       Vote share (null not filtered out)
AAP                    63           -4                             53.61%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP      7           +4                             39.69%
INC-RJD              0              0                              4.39%

Axis My India exit polls ended up being the most accurate again, especially on the vote share to seat translation.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: February 11, 2020, 07:17:44 am »

INC came in third in all 70 seats.  In 2015 INC at least came in second in 4 seats
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: February 11, 2020, 07:24:46 am »

Muslim heavy Matia Mahal shows how the Muslim vote shifted

AAP  76.0 (+16.8 )
BJP  19.2  (+7.9)
INC    3.9 (-22.9)

In 2015 BJP ran a Muslim candidate.  This time they ran a Hindu candidate.  BJP consolidated the Hindu vote this time but what remained of the 2015 INC Muslim base shifted to AAP in response.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: February 11, 2020, 09:27:24 am »

Getting close to the end.  BJP picks up a seat.

                        Seats     Diff on 2015       Vote share (null not filtered out)
AAP                    62           -5                             53.60%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP      8           +5                             39.74%
INC-RJD              0              0                              4.31%

The 3 main blocs add up to nearly 98% of the vote which is a record on top of 2015.  Polarization very strong in this election 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: February 11, 2020, 09:46:04 am »

The collapse of BSP in Delhi assembly election is just as dramatic as the collapse of the INC.  In 2008 Delhi assembly elections BSP won 14.05% of the vote.  In 2020 so far BSP is at 0.71%  BSP was at 5.38% in 2013 and 1.31% in 2015.  AAP pretty much ate up all of the BSP vote between 2013 and 2020.
 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: February 11, 2020, 12:07:11 pm »

All voted counted in Delhi assembly election

                        Seats     Diff on 2015       Vote share (null not filtered out)
AAP                    62           -5                             53.57%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP      8           +5                             39.77%
INC-RJD              0              0                              4.30%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: February 11, 2020, 02:51:03 pm »

I was able to compute the result table

2020 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           70               0                4.32% (RJD was part of INC+)

BJP+           70               8              39.95% (JD(U) and LJP were part of BJP+)

SHS              5               0                0.21%

AAP             70             62              53.82%

BSP             68               0               0.72%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: February 11, 2020, 05:04:40 pm »

The BJP campaign of using CAA seems to have flopped.  Of course taking the CAA narrative to farcical levels was always not going to work.  Toward the end of the campaign the BJP resorted to calling AAP CM Kejriwal a crypto-Muslim and an agent of Pakistan.  Kejriwal was asked on TV to recite the Hindu hymn Hanuman Chalisa (which gives thanks to the Hindu monkey deity Hanuman) to prove he was a Hindu.  Such a method of attack was always going to fail in an urban environment and the BJP were fools to try it.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: February 11, 2020, 05:11:33 pm »

NDTV claims the BJP vote share increase was mostly from INC



I think it is more complex then that.  I am sure what remained of the 2015 Upper Caste and OBC INC vote went to BJP but I think there was also a swing of Upper Caste and OBC AAP vote to BJP and a shift  of INC Muslim and Dalit votes to AAP in response so the AAP net vote share barely moved.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,021
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: February 11, 2020, 05:17:04 pm »

Very interesting result.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: February 14, 2020, 10:46:24 am »

The AAP record of winning 2 landslides in a row with greater than 50% of the vote is very rare in India state level elections where there is usually a fairly strong current of anti-incumbency. 

I looked around and the only other example of this would be, ironically, Gujarat 1980 and Gujarat 1985.  Gujarat is now a very strong BJP state (Modi's home state) but during the 1980s was a fairly strong INC state.  INC CM Madhav Singh Solanki during that period came up with the KHAM theory (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslims) which fused Upper Castes, Dalits, Tribals and Muslims into a huge pro-INC bloc at the expense the economically powerful Patels.  Based on this social coalition the INC smashed the BJP in both 1980 and 1985 with greater than 50% of the vote. Of course this permanently aliened Patels and other OBCS from INC and shifted them to BJP.  As the KHAM coalition fell apart in the 1990s with Upper Castes also going over to BJP, Dalits splintering and Muslims become distrustful of BJP the INC era of dominance came to the end and replaced with BJP domination. 

Recently things are going full circle with Patels feeling that BJP are taking them for granted and could shift to INC to make Gujarat competitive again.

The KHAM theory is actually the basis of the BJP (now seemingly failed) strategy of forming a coalition of communities to align against the dominate community of a state (Jats in Harayana, Marathas in Maharashtra, and tribals in Jharkhand)  Recently state assembly elections in those states where the BJP unperformed in all three shows the limits of such a strategy.   
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: February 14, 2020, 10:50:41 am »

The AAP blueprint for victory is actually similar to what other parties have done before to win:
1) Do not focus too much on overall governance and economic enviornment
2) Instead focus on one or two sops or social programs and make sure they are done well even at the expense of other programs
3) Keep on talking the success of these one or two social programs during the election

For AAP their main talking point was
a) subsidized eletricity
b) safe public transit (for women)

Even though the AAP record is mixed on other issues they just kept on hammering home these two accomplishments and rode them to victory.  b) clearly helped as there was a clear gender gap of women support for AAP in the exit polls.   
Logged
njwes
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 380
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: February 14, 2020, 04:50:56 pm »

Maybe an ignorant question, but what's the general socioeconomic profile of the BJP's Muslim voters?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: February 14, 2020, 05:08:08 pm »

Maybe an ignorant question, but what's the general socioeconomic profile of the BJP's Muslim voters?

Shia Muslims given the Sunni domination of the Muslim institutions in India and their own discrimination of Shia Muslims.  Also due to the Triple Talaq issues more women Muslim voters vote BJP then men.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: February 16, 2020, 02:47:55 pm »

The 2019 LS BJP landslide victory followed by under-performance in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and now Delhi even with polls showing that Modi is clearly the most popular politician in India shows there is a clear "Modi vote" above and beyond the "BJP vote."   The trick now is to try to estimate it.

One way I decided to try to measure this is to take all the assembly election results of 2015-2019 (2014 for J&K) and look at the BJP and INC vote shares and compare them to the BJP and INC vote shares in the 2019 LS election.  By 2015 the Modi magic of pushing up the BJP vote share in assembly elections have clearly worn off so this is a fair comparison.  Doing this and breaking up the results by the language type (Hindi, non-Hindi Indo-Aryan, Sino-Tibetian, Dravidian), of said state gives us

2015-2019 assembly                                          
                           Turnout%   BJP vote share     INC vote share
Overall                    69.30%          26.83%             20.67%
Hindi                       64.85%          37.09%             26.96%
Indo-Aryan              71.33%          26.83%             24.41%
Sino-Tibetian            84.15%          22.03%             23.32%
Dravidian                 75.69%            4.41%             12.19%

2019 LS
                           Turnout%   BJP vote share     INC vote share
Overall                    66.73%          37.41%             19.64%
Hindi                       62.32%          49.25%             19.20%
Indo-Aryan              68.76%          39.72%             21.11%
Sino-Tibetian            76.76%         19.89%              30.78%
Dravidian                 73.32%            7.15%             17.05%

One flaw of my methodology is that in states where the BJP/INC have stable local allies, the BJP/INC vote share will be higher in LS elections since as the national party the BJP/INC will get a greater share of seat allocation in LS elections than they deserve versus state assembly elections.  This was clearly the case for the BJP in TN and Kerala and for the INC in Kerala and Bihar.  But for the BJP in Bihar and Maharashtra given the local BJP allies (JD(U) and SHS) were playing hardball the BJP seat allocation in those two states actually matched relative BJP strength in Bihar and Maharashtra

Another quirk here is that in 2018 Telengana assembly elections the BJP vote share is underestimated since like the 2020 Delhi assembly elections where the INC vote shifted tactically to AAP to stop BJP the 2018 Telengana BJP vote shifted tactically to TRS to stop INC.

So overall the BJP state assembly vote share is Dravidian states is underestimated (Telengana) while the BJP 2019 LS vote share in Dravidian states are overestimated (TN and Kerala).

If we take that into account it is clear the "Modi vote" which is the 2019 LS BJP vote share gap on top of the BJP state assembly vote share is pretty much concentrated in the Hindi and Indo-Aryan states and is roughly around 12%-13% of the overall vote which is a massive personal vote.  Looking at exit polls it seems this "Modi vote" is concentrated in OBC, Dalit, and Tribals.

Historically the BJP leadership since the 1960s were almost all Upper Caste Hindi belt politicians.  Modi being a Gujarati OBC allows him to take into a bloc of voters that historically been turned off by the BJP image as an upper caste party.  Modi seems to have broken through with these voters and expanding this breakthrough in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states.  On the other hand Modi seems to struggle to shift the Modi vote to the BJP in state assembly elections especially when the BJP is the incumbent party.

The fact that Dalits and Tribals form a significant part of the Modi vote seems to indicate that while both communities are still resentful of Upper Caste domination at the social level they all aspire to be part of a global superpower that Modi represents in terms of aspirations.  This is something opposition parties have to tap into if they are to regain these voters in LS elections.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: February 17, 2020, 08:58:22 am »

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/babulal-marandi-merges-jvm-with-bjp-amit-shah-jp-nadda-1647292-2020-02-17

"Babulal Marandi merges JVM with BJP, Amit Shah, JP Nadda welcomes former Jharkhand CM"

In Jharkhand, ex-BJP CM Babulal Marandi and founder of JVM merges JVM back into BJP.  Back in 2014 Modi considered asking Babulal Marandi to merge JVM back into BJP and become the BJP CM.  Babulal Marandi came up with conditions that were too harsh for BJP so it broke down.  Now he is coming back under much more difficult circumstances.  Anyway at least this will help shore up the BJP tribal vote.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: February 17, 2020, 10:03:18 am »

INC Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot claims that BJP leadership in Delhi lost on purpose

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/bjp-leaders-wanted-party-lose-during-delhi-elections-ashok-gehlot-1647108-2020-02-16

"BJP leaders wanted their party to lose during Delhi elections, says Ashok Gehlot"

He was not clear why the BJP leadership wanted such a loss.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: February 18, 2020, 07:27:17 pm »

In Bihar, famous political strategist and former JD(U) vice-president Prashant Kishor who fell out with JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar over his support of AAP over the BJP-JD(U)-LJP alliance in Delhi seems to be starting a new movement.     

Prashant Kishor was always a political strategist and not mass leader so not sure where this would go.  Still all things equal he will be working with anti-NDA forces in the upcoming Bihar assembly election later this week.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-prashant-kishor-wants-to-connect-with-1-crore-people-in-bihar-1647730-2020-02-18

"Why Prashant Kishor wants to connect with 1 crore people in Bihar"
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: March 09, 2020, 12:58:21 pm »

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/jyotiraditya-scindia-join-bjp-massive-speculation-17-mlas-reach-bengaluru-119854

Crisis in the INC MP government.  There are signs that INC CM Kamal Nath intra-party rival Jyotiraditya Scindia  might lead his faction over to the BJP.  If so that follows 2019 Karnataka when the JD(S)-INC there fell after defections from both JD(S) and INC over to the BJP.

In both cases I am not sure this actually serves the electoral interests of the BJP but access to power is critical to politicians of all stripes 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: March 10, 2020, 06:00:09 am »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/madhya-pradesh-crisis-live-updates-17-rebel-congress-mlas-put-kamal-nath-government-on-edge-2192556

In MP INC leader Jyotiraditya Scindia  quits INC along with what it seems 19 MLAs.  He is set to join BJP which pretty much means that on the medium run BJP will be back at the helm in MP.

Jyotiraditya Scindia is of royal origins.  His father Madhavrao Scindia was the  last ruling Maharaja of Gwalior.  Madhavrao Scindia's mother Vijaya Raje Scindia joined the BJS in the 1950s and became a key leader of the BJS.  Madhavrao Scindia broke with his family in the 1970s to join INC.  Former BJP CM of  Rajasthan Vasundhara Raje is the aunt of Jyotiraditya Scindia.   Jyotiraditya Scindia is now going to return to the party of his grandmother and aunt.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: March 16, 2020, 09:34:51 am »

Floor test for MP government Tuesday 3/17. Most likely CM Kamal Nath INC government will fall as Jyotiraditya Scindia faction of 22 INC MLAs having all resigned.  This would mean a repeat of Karnataka  where a BJP CM would be installed and most if not all 22 INC rebels would be re-nominated by the BJP in their by-election.  The population of MP wanting stability would vote most of these INC rebels turned BJP back in giving the BJP a solid majority. 

What this means for 2023 MP assembly elections are still not clear.  Note that  Jyotiraditya Scindia is really not a mass leader so it is not clear on the long run the BJP is really given an electoral boast by him and his faction joining the BJP.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines