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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Babette d'Interlaken)
  2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
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Author Topic: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar  (Read 3238 times)
jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #50 on: February 08, 2020, 07:59:37 am »

Turnout will most likely be at most 60% which is a fall of over 7% from 2015.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #51 on: February 08, 2020, 08:20:33 am »

NDTV poll of exit polls so far has AAP ahead 49-20 over BJP

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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #52 on: February 08, 2020, 08:23:48 am »

VDP exit poll has a lot more detailed breakdown

          Seats     vote share
AAP      48            48%
BJP       22            40%
INC        0             6%




AAP victory has to do with its CM face




Breakdown by community

INC Muslim base shifted to AAP to give it the victory.  BJP won back from AAP its old Upper Caste base relative to 2015.  Despite SAD support Sikh vote went AAP most likely due to anti-CAA.




BJP will still win in a LS election given the Modi and CAA factor
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #53 on: February 08, 2020, 08:32:01 am »

AAP has successfully transformed itself from an anti-system party to a party of governance and stability.
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #54 on: February 08, 2020, 08:34:25 am »

Updated NDTV poll of exit polls has it at AAP 51 BJP 18 INC 1



BJP seems to be outperforming pre-election polls a bit so it certain that BJP will cross 20 seats and beat back the AAP landslide.
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #55 on: February 08, 2020, 08:35:08 am »

Looks like there was a last minute surge in turnout so final turnout might not be that far off from the record 2015 levels.
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #56 on: February 08, 2020, 08:39:12 am »

Further adjustments by exit poll based on late turnout surge seems to shift things against BJP in NDTV poll of exit polls to make it AAP 52 BJP 17 INC 1

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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #57 on: February 08, 2020, 08:43:00 am »

Republic TV vote share have AAP above 50%, it seems mostly due to INC vote tactical voting for AAP

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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #58 on: February 08, 2020, 08:45:51 am »

ABP News- CVOTER  poll has a much stronger INC vote share

AAP-  46%
BJP-   34%
INC-  13%

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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #59 on: February 08, 2020, 08:51:20 am »

Axis My India is the only larger pollster that has not come in with their complete exit polls.  Their initial partial exit poll results leans heavy for AAP.
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #60 on: February 08, 2020, 09:26:57 am »

Axis My India has massive AAP landslide

AAP  59-58
BJP   2-11
INC     0
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #61 on: February 08, 2020, 09:29:06 am »

Cvoter poll breakdown by education

BJP stronger as education rises.  Of course eduaction is also strongly correlated with income and Upper caste.
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #62 on: February 08, 2020, 09:46:18 am »

Axis My India complete results

AAP    64    56%
BJP      6    35%
INC     0      5%


has a repeat of 2015 with INC tactical voting for AAP.

With regional breakdown
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #63 on: February 08, 2020, 10:01:39 am »

Post Axis My India NDTV poll of exit polls AAP 56 BJP 14 INC 0.  Nut sure what happen to Sudarshan News exit poll and why it got yanked.  They did shift their numbers after releasing their figure so they might have yanked the poll completely to take into account the late turnout turn which most likely helped AAP (just like 2015).


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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #64 on: February 08, 2020, 11:34:07 am »
« Edited: February 08, 2020, 11:40:32 am by jaichind »

Final list of exit polls and average

                                AAP        BJP        INC
India Today-Axis          63          7           0
ABP-Covter                 56        12           2
NewsX-Polstrat            56        14           0
NewsX-Neta                55        14           1
News24-JanKi Baat      55        15           0
Republic-Jan Ki Baat    54        15           1
TV9-Cicero                 54         15           1
Spick Media                51         17           2
Sudarshan                  49         20           1
VDPA                          48        22           0
Times Now-Ipsos         47        23           0
IndiaTV-Ipsos              44        26           0
------------------------------------------------------------
Average                      53        16           1
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #65 on: February 08, 2020, 11:48:13 am »

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

There are three pre-election polls that had an exit poll.

Pre-election
                                AAP        BJP        INC
Times Now-Ipsos         57        12           1
ABP-Covter                 49        17           1
NewsX-Polstrat            54        14           2
----------------------------------------------------
                                 53        16           1

Exit poll
                                AAP        BJP        INC
Times Now-Ipsos         47        23           0
ABP-Covter                 56        12           2
NewsX-Polstrat            56        14           0
----------------------------------------------------
                                 53        16           1

So no momentum either way.  If so no reason not to go with average of exit polls since this is not a defeat of the incumbent party.    So my exit poll based projection has it at

                                AAP        BJP        INC
                                 53        16           1
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #66 on: February 08, 2020, 05:16:27 pm »

Delhi turnout ends up being 61.18% which is lower than 2013 and 2015 but higher than all the others that came before it.  Turnout was most heavy in Muslim areas. 
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #67 on: February 08, 2020, 08:51:32 pm »

The main risk for the BJP in these exit polls are that India Today-Axis which was the most accurate exit pollster last few elections is also the most pessimistic on the BJP.  Of course India Today-Axis had their own share of missed called.  The 2015 Bihar assembly India Today-Axis was way off.  Their positive record on started the last couple of years.

The main risk for AAP in these exit polls are that most of these exit polls are based on polling done up to 4:30PM to 5:00PM.  But there was a large turnout surge right after that time up to 6:00PM.  In theory that could be a pro-AAP surge just like 2015 but there is a risk that the last minute surge has an anti-incumbent bias in favor of BJP.
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #68 on: February 09, 2020, 11:25:58 am »

It seems J&K will go through a very long delimitation and the assembly election will most likely not be held until 2021
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #69 on: February 09, 2020, 05:00:30 pm »

More Axis exit poll breakdown

Old INC vote base Muslims and Balmiki Dalits broke for AAP.   AAP managed to split OBC and Upper Caste vote with BJP.


Gender gap of women in favor of AAP
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #70 on: February 11, 2020, 01:11:39 am »

With around half of the vote counted it is a solid AAP victory

                        Seats     Diff on 2015
AAP                    58            -9
BJP-JD(U)-LJP     12           +9
INC-RJD              0              0

Vote share wise on ECI site which has a greater lag has it at (NULLs not filtered out)   

AAP                  52.66%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP   41.11%
INC-RJD             4.07%

BJP is blaming INC for running a lackluster campaign and allowing the AAP to pickup the INC vote for the landslide win.   INC is blaming the BJP for polarizing the election which led to the INC base to tactically vote for AAP.
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #71 on: February 11, 2020, 01:16:47 am »

These sort of vote shares seems to imply BJP in single digit seats so the BJP seat count is more likely to fall.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #72 on: February 11, 2020, 01:20:05 am »

INC becoming a minor player in Delhi.  INC in Delhi going the way of INC in WB, Tripura and AP where it used to be a powerful force only to become a force in the single digits.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #73 on: February 11, 2020, 01:21:35 am »

53%-41% translating into mere single digits in seat count for the losing party in a 70-seat assembly looks shockingly bad for the party in question. Does this happen much in India?
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jaichind
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Posts: 14,152
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #74 on: February 11, 2020, 01:23:22 am »

53%-41% translating into mere single digits in seat count for the losing party in a 70-seat assembly looks shockingly bad for the party in question. Does this happen much in India?

Delhi tends to be more uniform in terms of vote share distribution given the lack of political diversity given its size.  Still this is just my hunch.
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