2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar

[jaichind]

Pro-BJP Republic TV also has UPA edge



UPA    118-138    40%-43%
NDA     91-117    37%-39%
LJP        5-8          7%-9%
Others   3-6         11%-14%

Another disastrous exit poll for NDA

[jaichind]

ABP exit poll also has it neck-to-neck

NDA  104-128
UPA   108-131
LJP       1-3
Others  4-8

If other exit poll has something like this then UPA wins given that UPA has the momentum

ABP exit poll seat breakdown



RJD: 81-89
Cong: 21-29
Left: 06-13

BJP: 66-74
JDU: 38-46
VIP: 00-04
HAM: 00-04

LJP: 01-03

INC held its own in the BJP-INC seats while RJD crushed JD(U) in RJD-JD(U) seats with LJP cutting into the BJP vote

[jaichind]

MP mini-assembly election by-elections India Today-Axis exit poll: BJP 16-18 INC 10-12.  BJP holds on to power, barely, in MP.  INC actually held is own here.

[jaichind]

The rule of thumb is Indian exit polls are: if one party/bloc outperforms its pre-election polls in the exit polls then the exit polls most likely are underestimating said party/bloc, especially if said party/bloc are in the opposition.     These exit polls imply a comfortable majority for UPA

[jaichind]

Times Now Cvoter exit poll



UPA     120          36.3%
NDA    116          37.7%
LJP         1            8.5%
Others    6          17.5%

It seems  Tejashwi Yadav is pulling off a massive update

Times Now-Cvoter vote share breakdown by party

NDA: 37.7%
JD(U): 15.1%
BJP: 20.4%
HAM: 1%
VIP: 1.2%

UPA: 36.3%
RJD: 22.9%
INC: 9.4%
Left: 4%

Others: 17.5%
LJP: 8.5%

[jaichind]

India Today-My Axis exit poll are not out yet but initial numbers on best CM are bad for NDA and good for UPA

[jaichind]

Today’s Chanakya which has a history of a huge pro-BJP house effect has it at a landslide defeat for NDA

No seat count yet but vote share is disasterous for NDA

BJP – JDU+    34% ± 3%
RJD – Cong+  44% ± 3%
Others            22% ± 3%

[jaichind]

India Today-My Axis exit poll vote shares by age

Age    - NDA - MGB - LJP

18-25 -  34% - 47% - 8%
26-35 -  36% - 47% - 7%
36-50 -  42% - 41% - 7%
51-60 -  45% - 40% - 6%
60+    -  48% - 38% - 6%

Youth surge for RJD where as in 2019 they went heavy for BJP/Modi

[jaichind]

Times Now-CVoter exit poll vote by location

URBAN:

NDA- 43.8%
UPA- 32.6%
OTH- 23.5%

SEMI URBAN:

NDA- 32.7%
UPA- 34.3%
OTH- 33%

RURAL:

NDA- 36.3%
UPA- 40.5%
OTH- 23.2%

Urban-rural split as expected given BJP's strength in urban areas

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP  Democracy Times exit polls

UPA: 129-144
NDA: 94-109
LJP: 04-07
OTH: 03-08

[jaichind]

India Today - Axis My India exit poll

UPA   139-161   44%
NDA    69-91     39%
LJP       3-5         7%
GDSP    3-5        4%




Has large UPA victory

[jaichind]

Today’s Chanakya which has a history of a huge pro-BJP house effect has it at a landslide defeat for NDA

No seat count yet but vote share is disasterous for NDA

BJP – JDU+    34% ± 3%
RJD – Cong+  44% ± 3%
Others            22% ± 3%

Their seat projection has massive UPA landslide

BJP – JDU+   55 ± 11 Seats
RJD – Cong+ 180 ± 11 Seats
Others  8 ± 4 Seats

[jaichind]

NDTV poll of polls



Dainik Bhaskar does have NDA ahead

[jaichind]

Times of India poll of polls

[jaichind]

Today’s Chanakya exit poll breakdown by caste.  UPA did better than expected with SC and EBC.  The RJD gamble to drop HAM and VIP and rope in CPM(ML) CPM CPI to capture SC and EBC looks like paid off. INC kept its base with Upper castes while RJD clawed back the Yadav vote leakage from 2019 LS elections.

                        NDA         UPA
Upper Caste.   60%          29%
Yadav.               22%         69%
Muslim.            12%          80%
SC.                     39%          34%
EBC.                   40%          33%
OBC.                   51%         30%

[jaichind]

It is also interesting to note that Tejashwi Yadav who is now favored to be the next CM is only 31 years old.  Just as the impressive is he would have won this spot on his own as Lalu Yadav is in jail.  In 2012 Akilesh Yadav was 38 when he was made CM if UP by his father Mulayam Singh Yadav but it was his father that won the election for SP and gave the role to his son so he would be free to persue a role in Federal politics.

Up until the summer Tejashwi Yadav was viewed by the public the media and even his own party as a joke.  Then this last two months Nitish Kumar imploded and Tejashwi Yadav caught fire with the youth. 

[jaichind]

India Today-Axis My India exit poll results by community

                  NDA       UPA        LJP        GDSF (RLSP-BSP-AIMIM)
Muslims         9          79           1            7
Mahadalit      43         37           8            6
Paswan         31         31         30            2
EBC              59         22           8            5 
Yadav           10         83           1            1
Kurmi           66         20           4            4
Koeri            52         26           7            9
Other OBC    57         26           7            3
Tribal           53          27           8            2
Baniya          64         19           6            2
Bhumihar      54         19         17            2
Rajput          54          17        13            3
Brahmin       62          17          8            2
Other Upper  62          21          8            2

Overall         39          44           7            4

India Today-Axis My India pointed out that

a) The BJP Upper caste base was not enthusiastic about it alliance with JD(U).   Bhumihar and Rajput defected in large number to LJP
b)  Tejashwi Yadav's strategy seems to be Muslim+Yadav+Youth of all castes which worked out well
c) RJD's alliance with the Left was effective in bring in Mahadalit and EBC votes
d) LJP clearly did well with Paswans as expected and denied that vote to NDA
e) JD(U)'s attempt to corner the Mahadalit vote failed in face of Tejashwi Yadav's youth appeal and Left's effective consolidation of its Mahadalit base behind UPA
f) RLSP failed to corner the Koeri vote

[jaichind]

My exit poll based algorithm for predicting results

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

                                   NDA       UPA        Others
Today's Chanakya           50         180           8
India Today-Axis             80         150           4
Democracy Times           99         135           9
Republic-Jan Ki Baat      104        128          12
TV9 Bharatvarsh            115        120           8
ETG                              114        120           9
Times Now-C Voter        116        120           7
PollDiary                       112         98          33
Dainik Bhaskar              125         77          41
-------------------------------------------------------------
Average                        102       125          16

The only exit poll that did a pre-election poll was Times Now-C Voter

                                    NDA        UPA        Others
Pre-election                   147          89             7
Exit                               116         120            7

So the momentum is significantly behind UPA.  There is no need to throw out Today's Chanakya in this case since they do not show signs of a pro-BJP bias.  This means we should NOT go with the average but go with the more pro-UPA polls.  I will go with the second most pro-UPA poll which is India Today-Axis

                                   NDA         UPA        Others
India Today-Axis             80         150           4

But since this is a defeat of an incumbent you have to shift more seats toward the winning opposition bloc which gives us

                                   NDA         UPA        Others
India Today-Axis             80         150           4
Shift                              -8          +8
-------------------------------------------------------------
Projection                      72          158           4

So my exit poll based projection algorithm projects a massive UPA victory with around a 2/3 majority.  Totally unexpected at the beginning of the campaign when I thought it would be NDA by a tiny margin or UPA by a tiny margin and that was one of the more pro-UPA projections out there.

[jaichind]

Its interesting that the two exit polls that has NDA with an edge, PollDiary and Dainik Bhaskar, has Others at 33 and 41 respectively.  So their exit poll results must have LJP and GDSF overperforming and eating into both the NDA and UPA vote shares and in the resulting 4 way chaos NDA ends up with more seats as GDSF hurts UPA more than LJP hurts NDA. 

Assuming that this election is an anti-incumbency election the anti-incumbent vote tends to get consolidated so this scenario is not likely.  That was the gamble RJD made when they refused to accept HAM and RLSP seat requests and let them leave UPA on the premise that the anti-JD(U) vote will consolidate behind UPA.   As long as these two exit poll results does not take place it seems Tejashwi Yadav and RJD most likely made the right gamble.

[jaichind]

If Nitish Kumar does lose the election as the exit polls predicts then the start and end of his reign would all rotate around the LJP factor.  Nitish Kumar would have rode into power based on the LJP and now lose power based on LJP.

In the 2004 LS elections a grand RJD-INC-LJP alliance was formed and defeated JD(U)-BJP.  LJP was a JD(U) splinter that stayed in NDA but bolted from NDA and joined RJD-INC to protest the  2002 Gujarat riots under then CM Modi.  The 2004 RJD-INC-LJP victory in the 2004 LS election was a shock since it was assumed that the JD(U)-BJP would repeat their 1999 LS election and on anti-incumbency against the Bihar RJD state government.

As the 2005 Bihar assembly election approached it seems that as long as RJD-INC-LJP alliance held together they were certain to win re-election.  But it was at this stage that LJP had other ideas as it wanted to carve out a space for itself and not play second fiddle to RJD.  So LJP, while staying a part of the UPA government at the center, ran separately from RJD.  The Bihar INC did nothing to stop this as it also wanted to cut RJD down to size and formed tactical alliances with both RJD and LJP on the premise that there is no way JD(U)-BJP can win so a post election government with a weakened RJD is in the best interest of the INC.

The Feb 2005 Bihar assembly election threw up a fractured mandate with RJD INC and LJP a majority between them but with LJP holding the balance of power between RJD-INC and JD(U)-BJP. LJP negotiated  with both sides  for so long that a good bloc of the LJP MLAs defected to JD(U) to try to break the deadlock.  The pro-INC governor of Bihar refused to accept this defection and called for another Oct 20015 Bihar assembly election.  INC this time around saw the danger of a JD(U)-BJP victory and allied with RJD while LJP ran separately hoping to play kingmakers again.  The result was a resounding victory for JD(U)-BJP and the start of a 15 year Nitish Kumar reign in Bihar.  

Now 15 years later it seems the BJP was trying to play the same game INC did back in 2005 with the LJP but with the goal of cutting JD(U) down to size by tactically accepting LJP running to split the JD(U) vote while LJP stays with the NDA government at the federal level.  The BJP was certain that after the 2019 JD(U)-BJP-LJP landslide victory in the LS elections there is no way the RJD-INC could win the 2020 assembly elections.  Just like 2005 it seems it is about to blow up in the BJP's and JD(U)'s face.  So Nitish Kumar's rise to power starts with a LJP defection and is likely to end with a LJP defection.

[CumbrianLefty]

Is there normally that much difference in exit polls?

[jaichind]

Is there normally that much difference in exit polls?

This is par for the course, especially for Bihar.  In 2015, for example, the exit polls were 



Worse, there was an exit poll that had JD(U)-RJD-INC 170 NDA 64 which ended up being accurate that was not published because CNN-IBN did not believe the result and pulled the poll from its TV program.

The number of parties and alliances involved, many races being multi-polar, and different swings bases on caste makes Bihar very hard to poll and project.

[jaichind]

Most exit polls that has detailed breakdown by party has RJD-INC Maoist ally CPI(ML) at around an amazing 12 !! seats with CPI and CPM with 1-2 seats each.  This would be the best electoral performance of a Maoist party in an Indian election if this ends up being true.

If next year's WB assembly goes the way one would expect, then in 2021 you would have the Left having more seats in Bihar than WB.  If anyone had predicted this in the mid 2000s that person would have been put in an insane asylum.

[jaichind]

There were 7 by-elections in UP assembly.  In 2017 UP assembly elections BJP won 6 of the 7 and SP won the last one.  India Today-Axis My India had an exit poll for these 7 seats which was

            seats    vote share
BJP         5-6      37%
SP          1-2      27%
BSP        0-1      20%
INC           0        8%

India Today mostly presented it as the BJP retaining their vote base.  Not sure if I agree.  If you look at these 7 seats in 2017 and mapped out their vote shares it was

BJP        44.8%
SP-INC   22.6%
  SP          19.9%
  INC          2.7%
BSP        24.2%
RLD          2.4%
NISHAD    3.5%

NISHAD has since supported BJP.   In 2017 SP and INC ran as allies but this time are running separately.   BSP is breaking with tradition and taking part in by-elections.  If the exit poll vote shares are correct both BJP and BSP have lost ground to SP and INC.  The erosion of the BJP vote since 2017 is quite significant and I would not read this as good news at all if I were the BJP.

[jaichind]

NDTV analysis of exit polls

Gender gap with Men voting for UPA and Women for NDA (mostly has to do with Nitish Kumar's policy of prohibition).  Good news for NDA is women turnout is higher.  Note that men register a a higher rate then women so more men votes were cast than women




BJP is expected to lose ground relative to 2019 LS elections



A 17% swing against BJP which is the average so far in 2019-2020 assembly elections leads to UPA 150 NDA 80 which looks suspiciously to my projection



When Modi is on the "ballot" BJP does better, even in assembly elections



Key voting pattern by community



Where Muslims are more numerous (RJD and INC base)



Where Yadav are more numerous (RJD base)



Where Paswans are more numerous (LJP base)



Where Kurmis are more numerous (JD(U) base)



Where Upper Castes are more numerous (BJP base)