2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/bihar-rjd-denies-ticket-rape-accused-gives-it-to-their-wives-1728488-2020-10-05

"Bihar: RJD denies ticket to rape-accused, gives it to their wives"

RJD claims they will only run "clean" candidates this time.  So a couple of RJD MLAs accused of rape were dropped.  Instead their wives were nominated.

[jaichind]

Last minute alliance shifting are moving in favor of NDA

VIP, which was expected to run by itself, joined NDA after LJP dropped out and will be given 11 seats out of the BJP quota.  

So NDA seat sharing is

JD(U)   115
BJP      110
VIP        11 (from BJP quota of 121)
HAM        7 (from JD(U) quota of 122)

This is a fairly positive seat share distribution as JD(U) remains nominally the senior partner but BJP contests almost as many seats as JD(U) which should be able to calm down internal JD(U) and BJP pressure.

One problem here is some BJP leaders in seats given to JD(U) are "defecting" to LJP and running for LJP.  If more of these "defections" take place it could break on the ground JD(U)-BJP collaboration

On the UPA side, even though RJD was suppose to give seats out of its 144 quota to VIP and JMM, VIP quit and joined NDA, and now JMM also claims that the RJD has "betrayed" it and will run in around 10 seats alone.  So UPA seat allocation is

RJD       144
INC         70
CPI(ML)   19
CPI           6
CPM          4

The RJD has mostly calculated that parties like RLSP VIP and JMM would struggle to shift their vote based over to RJD-INC and have gambled on just running on a narrow front hoping for a consolidation of the anti-NDA anti-Nitish Kumar vote.

[jaichind]

Just to give a sense of how different players in Bihar have shifted alliances over the years, I will write down where each player stood each election in Bihar since 1977 LS election.  The players are

INC
BJP
Sharad Yadav (LJD)
Nitish Kumar (JD(U))
Lalu Yadav (RJD)
Ram Vilas Paswan (LJP)
Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))
Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM)
Upendra Kushwaha (RLSP)
Mukesh Sahani(VIP)

As one can see, just about every player has been allied with each other and fought against each other except BJP has never been allied with INC.  Note that Jitan Ram Manjhi  and Upendra Kushwaha did not become significant players in Bihar politics until around 10-15 years ago where as Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, and Ram Vilas Paswan were significant players since the 1970s. But is is interesting to track all their careers since the 1970s.  Jagannath Mishra was a 3 time INC CM of Bihar who split in 1998 to create BJC(R).  He then merged BJC(R) into NCP and then joined JD(U).  His son who was a JD(U) MLA joined HAM and he revived BJC(R) and is supporting NDA in 2015. Mukesh Sahani of VIP did not become a player until 2014.

1977 LS and 1977 Assembly  
(Proto-BJP (JNP) + Sharad Yadav(JNP)+ Nitish Kumar (JNP) + Lalu Yadav (JNP) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1980 LS
(Proto-BJP (JNP) vs ( Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S))) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1980 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S)))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1984 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1985 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD) + Upendra Kushwaha(LKD)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))  [WINNING FRONT]

1989 LS  
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1990 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1991 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT]  vs ( INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1995 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD))[WINNING FRONT] vs (Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1996 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT by a small margin] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1998 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

1999 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2000 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2004 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra(JD(U)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC) [WINNING FRONT]

2005 Feb Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC)

2005 Oct Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) +Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)

2009 LS and 2010 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs INC

2014 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) +Mukesh Sahani(VIP))[WINNING FRONT] vs  (Nitish Kumar (JD(U))  + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U)))  vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

2015 Assembly
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R)) + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)) vs (Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)[WINNING FRONT]

2019 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Nitish Kumar (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM)  + Sharad Yadav(LJD) + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)+  Lalu Yadav/Tejashwi Yadav(RJD) + INC)

2020 Assembly (for now)
(BJP +  Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan/Chirag Paswan(LJP)) vs (Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP)) vs + Lalu Yadav/Tejashwi Yadav(RJD) + INC) vs  (Sharad Yadav(LJD)

[jaichind]

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/bihar/article/congress-self-goal-in-bihar-kisan-congress-unit-leader-says-poll-tickets-being-sold/663700

Right out of the gate INC seems to be in trouble.  Top INC leaders in Bihar claims that tickets are being sold to the highest bidder.  To be fair this is fairly common practice, especially in smaller parties like LJP HAM VIP RLSP etc etc.  Larger parties like BJP JD(U) RJD and even INC tend to do this less. For sure most of the time these types of things are hushed up.  This time is it coming out into the open.

[jaichind]

One thing this really ironic about LJP fighting the election in the name of Modi and to install a BJP-LJP government is that LJP was formed in 2000 as a JD(U) splinter but stayed in NDA along with JD(U) but exited NDA in 2002 over the Gujarat riots under Gujarat CM Modi.  Ram Vilas Paswan led LJP out of NDA and into UPA over objections that BJP should have punished Gujarat CM Modi over his handling of the Gujarat riots.  And now LJP is fighting this assembly election in the name of Modi.

[jaichind]

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-bihar-assembly-election-2020-know-the-caste-calculus-of-ticket-distribution-by-bjp-rjd-congress-in-bihar-vidhan-sabha-chunav-2848128

Out of the candidates announce so far

BJP: Mostly Upper Caste
RJD: Mostly Yadavs and Dalits
INC: Mostly Upper Caste

It seems INC is trying to regain its old Upper Caste vote bank from BJP since the 1980s.  INC has tried this over the last couple of decades to no avail but it seems their plan is to try again in hopes that the Upper Caste groups are frustrated with Nitish Kumar as CM and night turn to INC.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nitish-kumar-says-he-is-working-with-bjp-for-bihar-there-are-no-misunderstandings-2306014

In order to calm down JD(U), BJP came out saying that regardless of number of seats won by JD(U) vs BJP, the NDA CM will be Nitish Kumar. 

So now we have the bizarre situation were the BJP slogan is "Please vote BJP to get a JD(U) CM" while the LJP slogan is "Please vote LJP to get a BJP CM"

Of course below the surface this is bogus.  The level of distrust between JD(U) and BJP grassroots workers will most likely rise as BJP "rebels" join LJP to run against JD(U).  If after that various BJP workers disengage from the JD(U) campaign where the NDA candidate is JD(U) the level of trust might collapse and JD(U) workers in BJP seats might also abandon their posts.

[jaichind]

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/lalu-prasad-yadav-interviewing-potential-rjd-candidates-for-upcoming-bihar-polls-from-inside-a-hospital/664140

Even though Lalu Yadav is in jail (really a hospital on medical leave) he seems to be interviewing a lot of the RJD candidates before clearing them for nomination by RJD.

[jaichind]

A lot of the LJP candidates are BJP defectors or Upper Caste candidates whose job is to capture the BJP vote. 

The current state of JD(U)-BJP relationship at the grassroots level can best be explained by what we Chinese call "同床異夢" or Sharing the same bed but have different dreams.  If LJP continues on this path with tacit support from the BJP it could soon become "各懷鬼胎" or "Both side are pregnant with a demon fetus (which means both sides are planning to backstab each other)."  The Japanese have an idiom that is similar to this called "吳越之盟" or "Alliance between Wu and Yue (refereeing to  a short period during the 544BC-475BC where the ancient Chinese rival kingdoms of Wu and Yue were deadly rival but were allied and implies the alliance to doomed to fail due to conflicting basic interests)"

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/union-minister-ram-vilas-paswan-dies-in-hospital-son-chirag-tweets-you-will-always-be-with-me-2307266

LJP founder and Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan pass away after a heart surgury.   Chirag Paswan is the leader of LJP in all sense of the word.  He emerged as a youth political superstar in the JNP landslide of 1977 when he won his seat 89%-8% over INC which I think to this day is the largest margin in a LS election in a competitive election.   He went on to be a key leader in the various Janata parties forming alliance with both INC and BJP.

A famous joke about Bihar elections is: We do not know who will win the election but no matter what Ram Vilas Paswan will emerge as part of the winning front and be in the cabinet.

[jaichind]

https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/elections/bihar-elections-2020-owaisi-teams-with-bsp-field-kushwaha-as-cm-face.html

AIMIM joins RLSP-BSP front.  Minor JD(U) splinter SJDD is also party of this front as well as UP Rajbhar based BSP splinter SBSP.  It seems most of the significant non-UPA non-NDA parties are fusing into this Third Front.  All things equal this front will hit UPA more than NDA.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/union-minister-ram-vilas-paswan-dies-in-hospital-son-chirag-tweets-you-will-always-be-with-me-2307266

LJP founder and Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan pass away after a heart surgury.   Chirag Paswan is the leader of LJP in all sense of the word.  He emerged as a youth political superstar in the JNP landslide of 1977 when he won his seat 89%-8% over INC which I think to this day is the largest margin in a LS election in a competitive election.   He went on to be a key leader in the various Janata parties forming alliance with both INC and BJP.

A famous joke about Bihar elections is: We do not know who will win the election but no matter what Ram Vilas Paswan will emerge as part of the winning front and be in the cabinet.

I think Chirag Paswan is going to keep that tradition. He's positioned himself in such a way during this Assembly election that it appears he can join either side and come out a winner.

His plan is based on the fact that BJP has strong organization and the Upper Caste vote in Bihar but lack a charismatic face to capture the marginal, mostly women, swing voter.  Nitish Kumar played that role for the BJP by having a JD(U)-BJP alliance where BJP brought its origination and Nitish Kumar brought is image.  It is clear to see that Nitish Kumar's brand is on the decline and this election will be his last.  After Nitish Kumar is no longer CM, either by election or pushed by by the BJP, the JD(U) will implode. 

Chirag Paswan want to accelerate this process by hitting JD(U) and take in a some of the anti-JD(U) pro-BJP forces.  This way, after the election, win or lose, JD(U) will start to implode.  Chirag Paswan want to come in and beat out the BJP to capture the JD(U) with Chirag Paswan becoming the new Nitish Kumar for the BJP.  Chirag Paswan might even then merge LJP into BJP and become the head of the Bihar BJP.  This plan is based on Chirag Paswan's youth and fresh image, certainly relative to the backroom dealmakers of the Bihar BJP.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/bihar-assembly-elections-fighting-enemy-within-nitish-kumar-may-now-like-congress-to-win-more-seats-900489.html

With distrust growing between BJP and JD(U) at the grassroots level given the large number of BJP rebels running on LJP ticket, it seems JD(U) is now working on their Plan B: namely hope INC gains a bunch of seats so a JD(U)-INC post election alliance could have teeth if the BJP has plans to push their own CM with LJP.

While this could hurt the BJP in BJP vs INC seats it seems that an opposite trend will counter it, namely RJD's concern about a JD(U)-INC post-election alliance.  So it is not clear that the RJD base will go all out in favor of INC in seats INC is contesting.

All this makes for a fun free for all during voting when there are signs that every ally could be backstabbing each other.

[jaichind]

Times Now C-Voter poll has NDA ahead of UPA




                         Seats            Vote share
NDA                   160                 48.2%
  BJP                      85                 33.8%
  JD(U)                   70                 14.4%
  HAM-VIP                5

UPA                     76                 36.0%             
  RJD                     56                 24.3%
  INC                     15                 11.7%
  Left                      5             

LJP                       5                  6.7%
Others                  2                  9.1%

The vote shares are clearly incorrect.  With BJP and JD(U) contesting similar number of seats there is no way the BJP vote share is more than twice that of JD(U).  I guess I should read the vote shares are support for party.

Nitish Kumar not polling well.





With only 28% job approval for Nitish Kumar and 54.5% are angry and want a change of government. 

But best CM candidate still has Nitish Kumar ahead

Nitish Kumar (JD(U))     32.0
Tejashwi Yadav (RJD)     17.6
Sushil Modi (BJP)           12.5
Lalu Yadav (RJD)             8.7
Chiraj Paswan                 8.0
Gijiraj Singh (BJP)           6.7
Tariq Anwar (INC)           1.5

Which adds up to

NDA             51.2
UPA             27.8
LJP                8.0

This is not surprising where even in elections where the ruling bloc ends up losing they still lead pre-election polls on best CM due to name recognition.

Usually pre-election polls overestimate the ruling bloc and given the visible anger toward Nitish Kumar's government and the LJP split I think NDA is headed to a fairly narrow victory with some chance of a UPA upset.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/bihar/bihar-elections-exit-poll-ban-applies-to-astrologers-tarot-readers-analysts-too-says-ec/articleshow/78686201.cms

"Bihar elections: Exit poll ban applies to astrologers, tarot readers, analysts too, says EC"

Just like 2019 LS election exit poll ban until all voters has voted also applies to astrologers, tarot readers and analysts.  So pretty much as soon as phase 1 voting begins no one can publicly give any concrete indication on how the wind is blowing.

 

[jaichind]

On thing to note about the UPA alliance is that for the first time in Indian elections history the Maoist CPI(ML) has joined an alliance with mainstream "bourgeoisie" parties. 

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/in-bihar-bjps-surveys-indicate-tough-fight-157205

"In Bihar, BJP’s surveys indicate tough fight"

Internal BJP surveys seems to indicate that

a) The NDA vs UPA race is quite close
b) Anti-Nitish Kumar sentiment is high and is hurting both BJP and JD(U)
c) LJP not doing that well so JD(U) will end up with some number of seats
d) JD(U)'s EBC base is suspicious of a de facto BJP-LJP alliance

So the BJP has reasons to fear that JD(U) will hold the balance of power after the election and if BJP pushes its case to hard post-election for more power JD(U) might defect back to UPA and form a JD(U)-RJD-INC government just like in 2015-2017.

As a result the BJP is doing the most to disown the LJP and pledge that it will support a Nitish Kumar CM even if the BJP wins more seats than the JD(U).  The BJP judgments is that the anti-JD(U) vote will mostly going to UPA and the LJP will have limited impact.  If so the BJP has to prioritize making sure the JD(U) EBC base vote BJP and ensure after the election that JD(U) stays with the BJP form the government.   

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/bihar/nitish-kumars-jdu-fields-46-candidates-including-nine-women-with-criminal-cases/articleshow/78774041.cms

"Nitish Kumar's JD(U) fields 46 candidates - including nine women - with criminal cases"

46 out of 115 JD(U) candidates have criminal cases against them.  But at least JD(U) is for gender equity as 9 out of the 46 criminal candidates are women

 

[jaichind]

India Today CSDS poll on Bihar




               Seats      Vote share
NDA         138             38%    (JD(U)-BJP-VIP-HAM)
UPA           93              32%   (RJD-INC-CPI(ML)-CPM-CPI)
LJP             4                 6%
GDSF          0                 7%  (RLSP-BSP-AIMIM-SJDD-SBSP-JPS)
Others        8               17%

Race is now a lot closer



Best CM candidate

Nitish Kumar(JD(U))        31%
Tejashwi Yadav(RJD)        27%
Chirag Paswan(LJP)           5%
Sushil Modi(BJP)               4%
Lalu Yadav                        3%

This is a fairly poor number for a sitting CM.  It is clear Nitish Kumar is dragging down the NDA.  BJP has no choice since LJP support is not that great and backing LJP behind the scenes most likely split the anti-RJD vote and hand more seats to UPA.



Only 31% are for giving Nitish Kumar another chance with a large bloc undecided.

This sort of polling result point to a very narrow re-election for NDA if not outright defeat given polls at this stage should overestimate the incumbent bloc.

[jaichind]

Latest Times Now-CVoter Bihar poll also getting worse for NDA



Vote share w/o seats projection has NDA-UPA gap getting pretty small

NDA       34.4
UPA        31.8
LJP          5.2
Other       4.5



46.79% says that things are getting worse



61.1% !!! are angry and want to change government
25.2% are angry but do not want to change government
13.7% are satisfied

These are very bad re-elect numbers.  BJP has tied themselves to a corpse in the form of Nitish Kumar

[jaichind]

Latest Times Now-CVoter Bihar poll with seat projection has UPA closing the gap

NDA       147 (-13)
UPA         89 (+13)

change relative to their early Oct poll

[jaichind]

More detailed version of Times Now-Covter poll on Bihar




Which gives us

                        Seats                  Vote share
NDA                   147 (-13)                43.0%  
 BJP                     77  (-8)                 21.6% (-12.2%)
 JD(U)                  63  (-7)                 18.3% (+3.9%)
 Allies                    7  (+2)                   3.1%

UPA                    87(+11)                34.4%
 RJD                   60 (+4)                 24.1% (-0.2%)
 INC                   16 (+1)                  6.0%  (-5.7%)
 Left                   11 (+6)                  4.3%

LJP                       3 (-2)                 3.8% (-2.9%)
Other                    6 (+4)               18.6%

With change from early Oct poll.  It seems they fixed the bad ratio between BJP and JD(U) vote shares given they are contesting similar number of seats.  Also there seems to be a lot more undecides  from the early Oct poll which is usually good for the opposition front, in this case UPA.

Overall if the vote share gap between NDA and UPA is 8.6% than the seat share gap should be bigger than this.  I suspect the seats share are closer to the mark than vote share.



Many projected seats are very close 31 NDA seats and 20 UPA seats are still neck-to-neck (within 3%)

[jaichind]

If the most recent Times Now-Covter poll on Bihar is accurate then from a party seats point of view it is fairly close to status quo (2015 results) in terms of who holds the balance of power.

           2015           2020
BJP         53              77
JD(U)      71              63
RJD        80               60
INC         27              16

JD(U) will still hold the balance of power.  If JD(U) stays with BJP then JD(U)-BJP will form the government.  If JD(U) does not like the deal it gets from BJP it can defect back to RJD-INC and form a majority with JD(U)-RJD-INC. 

[jaichind]

Phase 1 voting done a couple of days ago.  Turnout was 54% which is actually a bit higher than in 2015.  This tends to help RJD as RJD does better in higher turnout elections vs JD(U).

All signs are that NDA still has the larger voting bloc and the Modi factor but developments on the ground are not going well for NDA.  It seems JD(U) and BJP have a high level of distrust and are really running two separate campaigns.  The BJP high command continues to put out signals that they totally back Nitish Kumar for CM but that is more about accepting the reality that LJP is not doing that well and pushing BJP votes to LJP will merely throw more seats toward RJD-INC.  The BJP seems to have accepted that once again, they gave been out-maneuvered by Nitish Kumar and that at best JD(U) will hold the balance of power between BJP and RJD-INC-Left.  So it is best, on the short run, the BJP continue their alliance with Nitish Kumar and them hope to take over the JD(U) vote  after Nitish Kumar exits the political scene over the next 5 years.

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/mayawatis-open-support-to-bjp-spells-setback-for-grand-secular-democratic-front-in-bihar/articleshow/78957355.cms

In some good news for the RJD-INC-Left alliance, the GDSF alliance (RLSP-BSP-AIMIM) suffered a setback in terms of its credibility when BSP leader Mayawati  announced that her MLAs in UP should back BJP in MLC elections.   It seems in UP part of the BSP is in revolt against Mayawati and a bunch of MLAs seems to be threatening to bolt and join up with SP.  In response Mayawati announced that her loyal UP MLAs should back BJP in the upcoming UP MLC elections to stop SP.

This has the net effect of undercutting the GDSF effort to capture the anti-BJP vote from UPA.  Mayawati clearly is prioritizing UP over Bihar which makes sense given how weak BSP is in Bihar.  Still this move undercut AIMIM's effort to cut into the RJD-INC Muslim vote.