2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/rlsp-holds-seat-sharing-talks-with-bjp/articleshow/78339532.cms

In Bihar it seems RLSP has left UPA and are in seat sharing talks with the BJP.   If RLSP does join abroad NDA then within the NDA it seems there are now two sub-blocs: JD(U)-HAM and BJP-LJP-RLSP. This whole thing does not make sense as I find it impossible all these parties can come to an agreement on how to share out 243 seats.  If RLSP does get a seat sharing deal with BJP then it is another sign that BJP and JD(U) might part ways for 2020 assembly elections.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/bihar-assembly-elections-2020/bihar-elections-congress-gives-rjd-ultimatum-on-seats/articleshow/78341686.cms

In the meantime, INC is pretty much demanding RJD accommodate INC in around 70-75 seats or else INC is ready to go it alone.  Part of the reason why INC could be doing this is INC sense that the election will be a 3 way contest (JD(U) vs BJP vs  RJD) and in such a situation INC going on its own becomes more viable ergo it is going to racket up its price to go along with RJD.

Hopefully the alliance math will become more clear in a few days.

[jaichind]

C-Voter poll on Bihar





              Seats     Vote share
NDA        151           41.9%
UPA          74           34.1%
Others      18           24.0%

Best CM candidate

JD(U) Nitish Kumar         30.9%
RJD Tejashwi Yadav         15.9%
BJP Sushil Modi                9.2%
RJD Lalu Yadav                8.3%
LJP Ram Vilas Paswan       6.5%
INC Tariq Anwar               2.1%

Pre-election polls just as the polls are announced tend to overestimate the ruling party.   This sort of poll seems to indicate a narrow NDA victory.  With 24.2% of polled being in favor of a RJD CM candidate shows the RJD base is mostly intact.

[jaichind]

http://www.uniindia.com/news/east/bihar-assembly-polls-rjd-offers-50-seats-to-congress-25-to-left-parties/2179560.html

In Bihar, with RLSP gone from UPA, the latest RJD offer seems to be RJD 150 INC 50 Left parties (CPI CPM CPM-ML) 25 with the rest going to VIP and JMM.   This is despite an INC ultimatum that INC contest around 70-75 seats or INC is out.  The 25 seats to Left parties seems large and not proportionate to the limited number of seats where they have any real strength.  CPI-ML might have some strength in around 10 seats and CPI/CPM has some strength in perhaps a couple of seats each.  I  suspect a lot of these 25 seats are BJP or JD(U) strongholds non-win seats. 

[jaichind]

The C-Voter survey has some data that should make the BJP jump.

56.7% are angry at Nitish Kumar government and want him out
29.8% said they are angry at  Nitish Kumar government  but do not want him out

So nearly 88% of the voter base are angry at Nitish Kumar government.  There is a risk that the BJP might be "Shackled to a corpse" like Ludendorff commented about Germany's alliance with Austria-Hungary in WWI. 

What is going on here is that RJD Tejashwi Yadav is not seen as a viable alternative to Nitish Kumar which is the basis behind JD(U)-BJP's lead over RJD-INC.  Still even if JD(U)-BJP comes back to power it is clear that Nitish Kumar brand has been exhausted and really cannot continue future.  The BJP should really consider running separately from JD(U).

[jaichind]

For the 28 by-elections in MP it is assumed that for 26 of them the BJP will field the INC defectors.  Out of the 28 seats INC already announced 24 candidates.  7 of them are defectors from the BJP and 2 are defectors from BSP.  So for at least 7 out of the 28 elections we will see the same candidates from the BJP and INC but with the candidates reversed.

[jaichind]

In Bihar it seems BJP-RLSP talks has broken down and RLSP has announced it will run in a separate front allied with BSP.  This makes it more likely that somehow BJP can get JD(U) and LJP to come to an agreement to form a common front. Having to accommodate RLSP and prevent BJP rebellions is just not possible while making sure JD(U) and LJP are satisfied.   

[jaichind]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hathras_gang_rape_and_murder

The gang rape of a Dalit girl by a gang of Upper Caste men in Hathras of UP and alleged coverup by the police followed by the death of the girl has led to mass Dalit protest in UP and elsewhere.  This is coming at a bad time for the BJP with elections in Bihar and mini-assembly elections in MP where the Dalit vote will be critical to victory.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bihar-assembly-polls-tejashwi-to-lead-alliance-rjd-to-contest-144-seats-congress-gets-70/articleshow/78463343.cms

In Bihar UPA deal struck.  It seems RJD backed down and agreed to INC at 70 seats.  The seat sharing seems to be

RJD       144
INC         70
CPI(ML)   19
CPI           6
CPM          4

They also claim that JMM and VIP will be brought onboard.  I guess RJD-INC will distribute some from their quota to JMM and VIP.  So this deal is not really 100% yet.

RLSP-BSP will run as a third front and in the NDA side LJP will make a call today on if they will continue in NDA.  Even if LJP dose not I am sure they will not run in seats that BJP are running but go all out to run in JD(U) seats and in some cases running Upper Caste candidates to try to win the BJP vote.  One has to wonder if this ends up being the cause if LJP is just a BJP agent to cut into the JD(U) seat count to try to avoid any chances of  a post election JD(U)-INC alliance.

[jaichind]

Updates on Bihar

1) https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bihar-election-nda-bjp-jdu-ljp-seat-sharing-6700395/

On the NDA side, it seems it will be JD(U) and BJP to contest 119 each with HAM to contest 5 with the BJP allocating from its quota to LJP.  It does not matter that much as the BJP most likely can part with at most 20-25 and LJP will accept nothing less than 35.

As such

2) https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bihar-assembly-polls-chirag-paswan-ljp-to-meet-over-bihar-polls-may-announce-candidates-2304894

It seems LJP will contest alone.  Although most likely LJP will not contest against BJP but will contest JD(U) and HAM.  LJP's strategy is to try to cash in on the pro-Modi but anti-Nitish Kumar vote (aka BJP vote) in seats that the BJP is not running.  LJP is delaying formally announcing this mostly because I suspect a good part of the LJP MPs are fearful that LJP might up getting kicked out of the NDA at the federal level.  Chirag Paswan has to calm them down that this move only means LJP leaves NDA at the Bihar assembly level but not at the federal level.

3) One the UPA side it seems VIP was not happy with the 12 seats it got (it wanted 25 and VIP leader    Mukesh Sahani being made DCM candidate) and will exit UPA.  VIP claims it will try to join NDA but that is unlikely as it will get at most 4-5 seats from NDA at this point.  It might end up running with RLSP-BSP alliance. 

3) On RLSP it seems that a week or two ago  ago RLSP wanted 20+ seats from UPA but RJD was only willing to part with 8-9 seats given RJD's assessment of RLSP base.  RLSP went to talk to BJP and got an even smaller offer ergo it decided to go with a Third Front approach forming an alliance with BSP.  This seems to have triggered some defections of key leaders in RLSP and BSP to RJD as many think this election will end up being fairly bi-polar in terms election winners.

[jaichind]

In Bihar

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/mukesh-sahniled-vip-to-contest-all-243-seats-in-bihar/1948473

VIP will contest at 243 seats as it is clear they will get near nothing from NDA in terms of seats.

What is funny about this is whole affair is that at the UPA press conference where the seat sharing arraignments were announced VIP leader Mukesh Sahani was in attendance and even publicly backed the seat sharing results


(Mukesh Sahani is on the far left of the picture)

But at the same press conference he then held a separate meeting with the media saying that RJD backstabbed him and that VIP will exit UPA.

And within a couple of days in another press conference VIP leader Mukesh Sahani (who backed NDA in 2015 Bihar assembly elections before defecting to UPA for the 2019 LS elections) announced in a similar victory  press conference he just attend with the UPA that VIP will contest alone.


 

[jaichind]

The fun begins already in Bihar

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/bihar-tejashwi-tej-booked-after-ex-rjd-mahadalit-leader-planning-to-independently-contest-election-shot-dead/articleshow/78477394.cms

"Tejashwi Yadav, Tej Pratap Yadav booked after ex-RJD mahadalit leader planning to independently contest election shot"

A RJD leader Shakti Kumar Mallik was shot Sunday.  It seems he was planning to rebel and run as a independent. RJD leader Tejaswhi Yadav (RJD leader and UPA CM candidate), Tej Pratap Yadav(brother of Tejaswhi Yadav, son of Lalu Yadav, and a on and off again RJD rebel) , Anil Kumar Sadhu (RJD leader but also son-in-law of LJP patriarch Ram Vilas Paswan as well as brother-in-law of LJP leader Chirag Paswan,  He rebelled against LJP in 2015 and joined RJD)

Even if this murder is politically motivated most likely they cannot it on RJD high command.  Still being accused of murder is not a good look for the RJD leader and UPA CM candidate as the campaign starts.

[jaichind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bihar-assembly-elections-2020-ljp-115555112.html

"Bihar Assembly Elections 2020: LJP to Field Candidates Against JD(U), Breaks Alliance With Nitish Kumar"

As expected LJP leaves NDA in Bihar but will not break its alliance with BJP.  So it will run candidates against JD(U)-HAM but not BJP.  This will clearly cause a rift in the JD(U)-BJP alliance as LJP will try run as a de facto BJP candidate in JD(U)-HAM seats running in the name of Modi.  LJP claims that after the election BJP-LJP will form a government. 

This could trigger anger on the JD(U) base in BJP seats and drift away from BJP.  In many ways this is worse for the NDA than a complete LJP break.  At least then the pro-NDA voter can just vote JD(U)-BJP-HAM and be fairly united in their vote.  Now the NDA will face splinters in its base at a time that Nitish Kumar is not that popular.

[jaichind]

Now it seems the election will be

JD(U)-BJP-HAM vs LJP (tactical alliance with BJP) vs RJD-INC-CPI(ML)-CPI-CPM-JMM vs RLSP-BSP vs VIP it is time to handicap the race

1) JD(U)-BJP-HAM clearly have the larger social base assuming HAM can bring in a chunk of the Dalit vote and from that point of view would give it the edge.  A lot will depends on candidates.  BJP has hold on the Upper Caste which would be difficult to dislodge if BJP is in the fray.  When JD(U) is in the fray it seems both INC and LJP plans to try to run Upper Caste candidates to eat into the BJP vote.  The JD(U) plan is to get Modi to campaign for JD(U) to pull in the Upper Caste vote for JD(U).

2) From a CM candidate point of view it is JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar vs RJD Tejashwi Yadav.  There is a lot of anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar but  Tejashwi Yadav is not seen as credible so it is JD(U)-BJP-HAM edge here more from a TINA point of view.  Tejashwi Yadav who is 31 is trying to make a bid for the youth vote although LJP's Chirag Paswan who is 38 is trying to do the same.  Modi is pretty popular with the youth as well and JD(U)-BJP-HAM will try to use that to its advantage.

3) The Hathras gang rape of a Dalit girl followed by attempted coverup has riled up the Dalit movement across Northern India and will clearly hurt the BJP.  At this stage it is damage control and JD(U)-BJP-HAM hope that any anti-BJP Dalit votes are splintered and not concentrated on RJD-INC bloc.

4) Various smaller parties will clearly run and cut into the votes of the bigger blocks.  RLSP will hope to cut into the Kurmi vote that is aligned with JD(U).  LJP clearly want to keep its Dalit vote base.  VIP will cut into the lower OBC Mulla vote.  RJD splinter JAP would want to cut into the Yadav vote and AIMIM clearly will want to cut into the Muslim vote.  All these smaller parties in the fray most likely hurts RJD-INC bloc more than the JD(U)-BJP bloc but that is assuming that Nitish Kumar still has a positive image like in 2005 2010 2015.  This time around it might not be so easy.

5) The role of how the BJP and JD(U) base can merge is seriously compromised by the LJP split while backing BJP.  This could create a rift between the JD(U) and BJP vote bases and will clearly hurt JD(U) more. 

6) RJD CM candidate Tejashwi Yadav being accused murder just as the campaign starts clearly is not good but most likely will have a minor impact.

All things equal as long as JD(U) and BJP bases could fuse and the anti-Nitish Kumar not consolidate JD(U)-BJP-HAM is most likely headed for victory but the scale of victory will most likely be small.

[jaichind]

Bihar voting phases map

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/bihar-rjd-denies-ticket-rape-accused-gives-it-to-their-wives-1728488-2020-10-05

"Bihar: RJD denies ticket to rape-accused, gives it to their wives"

RJD claims they will only run "clean" candidates this time.  So a couple of RJD MLAs accused of rape were dropped.  Instead their wives were nominated.

[jaichind]

Last minute alliance shifting are moving in favor of NDA

VIP, which was expected to run by itself, joined NDA after LJP dropped out and will be given 11 seats out of the BJP quota.  

So NDA seat sharing is

JD(U)   115
BJP      110
VIP        11 (from BJP quota of 121)
HAM        7 (from JD(U) quota of 122)

This is a fairly positive seat share distribution as JD(U) remains nominally the senior partner but BJP contests almost as many seats as JD(U) which should be able to calm down internal JD(U) and BJP pressure.

One problem here is some BJP leaders in seats given to JD(U) are "defecting" to LJP and running for LJP.  If more of these "defections" take place it could break on the ground JD(U)-BJP collaboration

On the UPA side, even though RJD was suppose to give seats out of its 144 quota to VIP and JMM, VIP quit and joined NDA, and now JMM also claims that the RJD has "betrayed" it and will run in around 10 seats alone.  So UPA seat allocation is

RJD       144
INC         70
CPI(ML)   19
CPI           6
CPM          4

The RJD has mostly calculated that parties like RLSP VIP and JMM would struggle to shift their vote based over to RJD-INC and have gambled on just running on a narrow front hoping for a consolidation of the anti-NDA anti-Nitish Kumar vote.

[jaichind]

Just to give a sense of how different players in Bihar have shifted alliances over the years, I will write down where each player stood each election in Bihar since 1977 LS election.  The players are

INC
BJP
Sharad Yadav (LJD)
Nitish Kumar (JD(U))
Lalu Yadav (RJD)
Ram Vilas Paswan (LJP)
Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))
Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM)
Upendra Kushwaha (RLSP)
Mukesh Sahani(VIP)

As one can see, just about every player has been allied with each other and fought against each other except BJP has never been allied with INC.  Note that Jitan Ram Manjhi  and Upendra Kushwaha did not become significant players in Bihar politics until around 10-15 years ago where as Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, and Ram Vilas Paswan were significant players since the 1970s. But is is interesting to track all their careers since the 1970s.  Jagannath Mishra was a 3 time INC CM of Bihar who split in 1998 to create BJC(R).  He then merged BJC(R) into NCP and then joined JD(U).  His son who was a JD(U) MLA joined HAM and he revived BJC(R) and is supporting NDA in 2015. Mukesh Sahani of VIP did not become a player until 2014.

1977 LS and 1977 Assembly  
(Proto-BJP (JNP) + Sharad Yadav(JNP)+ Nitish Kumar (JNP) + Lalu Yadav (JNP) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1980 LS
(Proto-BJP (JNP) vs ( Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S))) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1980 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S)))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1984 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1985 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD) + Upendra Kushwaha(LKD)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))  [WINNING FRONT]

1989 LS  
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1990 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1991 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT]  vs ( INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1995 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD))[WINNING FRONT] vs (Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1996 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT by a small margin] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1998 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

1999 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2000 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2004 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra(JD(U)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC) [WINNING FRONT]

2005 Feb Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC)

2005 Oct Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) +Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)

2009 LS and 2010 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs INC

2014 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) +Mukesh Sahani(VIP))[WINNING FRONT] vs  (Nitish Kumar (JD(U))  + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U)))  vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

2015 Assembly
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R)) + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)) vs (Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)[WINNING FRONT]

2019 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Nitish Kumar (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM)  + Sharad Yadav(LJD) + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)+  Lalu Yadav/Tejashwi Yadav(RJD) + INC)

2020 Assembly (for now)
(BJP +  Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Mukesh Sahani(VIP)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan/Chirag Paswan(LJP)) vs (Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP)) vs + Lalu Yadav/Tejashwi Yadav(RJD) + INC) vs  (Sharad Yadav(LJD)

[jaichind]

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/bihar/article/congress-self-goal-in-bihar-kisan-congress-unit-leader-says-poll-tickets-being-sold/663700

Right out of the gate INC seems to be in trouble.  Top INC leaders in Bihar claims that tickets are being sold to the highest bidder.  To be fair this is fairly common practice, especially in smaller parties like LJP HAM VIP RLSP etc etc.  Larger parties like BJP JD(U) RJD and even INC tend to do this less. For sure most of the time these types of things are hushed up.  This time is it coming out into the open.

[jaichind]

One thing this really ironic about LJP fighting the election in the name of Modi and to install a BJP-LJP government is that LJP was formed in 2000 as a JD(U) splinter but stayed in NDA along with JD(U) but exited NDA in 2002 over the Gujarat riots under Gujarat CM Modi.  Ram Vilas Paswan led LJP out of NDA and into UPA over objections that BJP should have punished Gujarat CM Modi over his handling of the Gujarat riots.  And now LJP is fighting this assembly election in the name of Modi.

[jaichind]

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-bihar-assembly-election-2020-know-the-caste-calculus-of-ticket-distribution-by-bjp-rjd-congress-in-bihar-vidhan-sabha-chunav-2848128

Out of the candidates announce so far

BJP: Mostly Upper Caste
RJD: Mostly Yadavs and Dalits
INC: Mostly Upper Caste

It seems INC is trying to regain its old Upper Caste vote bank from BJP since the 1980s.  INC has tried this over the last couple of decades to no avail but it seems their plan is to try again in hopes that the Upper Caste groups are frustrated with Nitish Kumar as CM and night turn to INC.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nitish-kumar-says-he-is-working-with-bjp-for-bihar-there-are-no-misunderstandings-2306014

In order to calm down JD(U), BJP came out saying that regardless of number of seats won by JD(U) vs BJP, the NDA CM will be Nitish Kumar. 

So now we have the bizarre situation were the BJP slogan is "Please vote BJP to get a JD(U) CM" while the LJP slogan is "Please vote LJP to get a BJP CM"

Of course below the surface this is bogus.  The level of distrust between JD(U) and BJP grassroots workers will most likely rise as BJP "rebels" join LJP to run against JD(U).  If after that various BJP workers disengage from the JD(U) campaign where the NDA candidate is JD(U) the level of trust might collapse and JD(U) workers in BJP seats might also abandon their posts.

[jaichind]

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/lalu-prasad-yadav-interviewing-potential-rjd-candidates-for-upcoming-bihar-polls-from-inside-a-hospital/664140

Even though Lalu Yadav is in jail (really a hospital on medical leave) he seems to be interviewing a lot of the RJD candidates before clearing them for nomination by RJD.

[jaichind]

A lot of the LJP candidates are BJP defectors or Upper Caste candidates whose job is to capture the BJP vote. 

The current state of JD(U)-BJP relationship at the grassroots level can best be explained by what we Chinese call "同床異夢" or Sharing the same bed but have different dreams.  If LJP continues on this path with tacit support from the BJP it could soon become "各懷鬼胎" or "Both side are pregnant with a demon fetus (which means both sides are planning to backstab each other)."  The Japanese have an idiom that is similar to this called "吳越之盟" or "Alliance between Wu and Yue (refereeing to  a short period during the 544BC-475BC where the ancient Chinese rival kingdoms of Wu and Yue were deadly rival but were allied and implies the alliance to doomed to fail due to conflicting basic interests)"

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/union-minister-ram-vilas-paswan-dies-in-hospital-son-chirag-tweets-you-will-always-be-with-me-2307266

LJP founder and Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan pass away after a heart surgury.   Chirag Paswan is the leader of LJP in all sense of the word.  He emerged as a youth political superstar in the JNP landslide of 1977 when he won his seat 89%-8% over INC which I think to this day is the largest margin in a LS election in a competitive election.   He went on to be a key leader in the various Janata parties forming alliance with both INC and BJP.

A famous joke about Bihar elections is: We do not know who will win the election but no matter what Ram Vilas Paswan will emerge as part of the winning front and be in the cabinet.

[randomusername]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/union-minister-ram-vilas-paswan-dies-in-hospital-son-chirag-tweets-you-will-always-be-with-me-2307266

LJP founder and Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan pass away after a heart surgury.   Chirag Paswan is the leader of LJP in all sense of the word.  He emerged as a youth political superstar in the JNP landslide of 1977 when he won his seat 89%-8% over INC which I think to this day is the largest margin in a LS election in a competitive election.   He went on to be a key leader in the various Janata parties forming alliance with both INC and BJP.

A famous joke about Bihar elections is: We do not know who will win the election but no matter what Ram Vilas Paswan will emerge as part of the winning front and be in the cabinet.

I think Chirag Paswan is going to keep that tradition. He's positioned himself in such a way during this Assembly election that it appears he can join either side and come out a winner.