2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar  (Read 18859 times)
jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #125 on: July 20, 2020, 07:16:41 AM »

https://theprint.in/politics/sachin-pilot-offered-me-rs-35-crore-to-join-bjp-says-congress-mla/464610/

"Sachin Pilot offered me Rs 35 crore to join BJP, says Congress MLA"

If true the going rate the BJP is willing to pay is around $5 million.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #126 on: July 21, 2020, 12:15:35 PM »

Isn't that corrupt enough to be illegal.

Of course it is.  But there is no proof.  Also $$$ is not enough.  The MLA in question must also view the move as something that will help his or her career, like BJP will nominate them as on the BJP ticket in the by-election AND they are likely to win as a BJP candidate.  The BJP will clearly no call this bribery but will call it a sign on bonus Smiley  In Karnataka and MP the political equations clearly worked.  Not clear it will work here. Note that the INC MLA in question turned down the deal.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #127 on: July 29, 2020, 02:12:32 PM »

The Rajasthan crisis comes down to two separate legal issues.   

First, Sachin Pilot and his 19 rebel INC MLAs wants time to work out a deal with the BJP and grow their rebellion.  INC CM Ashok Gehlot want to use the anti-defection law to expel them as MLAs as losing 19 INC rebel MLAs is not enough to threaten his majority.  But the courts ruled that since the 19 rebel INC MLAs did not violate the whip the anti-defection law does not apply.  So INC CM Ashok Gehlot want to call the legislature into session and then issue a whip to all INC MLA in a VONC vote.  But the BJP governor is blocking such a move so courts are needed resolve this.

Second,  one of the reasons why INC CM Ashok Gehlot has numbers on his side is last year the entire 6 member BSP delegation defected and merged their caucus into the INC.  Now at this critical juncture BSP is going to the courts saying that this defection is illegal under the anti-defection law because even though all 6 MLA defected which crosses the 2/3 threshold to avoid the anti-defection law since BSP is a national party this is only valid if the entire national BSP merges into INC.  BSP want the court to nullify this merger and then issue a whip to the BSP MLAs to vote against INC CM Ashok Gehlot in the VONC vote. This argument is legally dubious and flies the the face of other precedents in other states.

Still for the INC CM Ashok Gehlot government to to survive these legal rulings will have to go his way.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #128 on: August 01, 2020, 04:34:46 PM »

Given signs that Rahul Gandhi will soon return to the role of INC Prez the battles between the Old Guard (aligned with Sonia Gandhi) and the Young Turks (aligned with Rahul Gandhi) are intensifying within the INC.  If Rahul Gandhi does not take over soon and put a stop to this emerging civil war the INC might actually implode.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #129 on: August 03, 2020, 06:15:58 AM »

Aug 5th will be a huge day for the BJP/RSS.  That day will see the  groundbreaking ceremony of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and the final victory of the Hindu nationalist in building the temple which really started as a movement in the 1980s.  The Ram temple movement was key to the rise of the BJP starting in the 1980s.

Also it seems that Lord Ram's Images, Ayodhya Temple Model To Be Displayed At New York's Times Square On August 5
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lord-rams-images-ayodhya-temple-model-to-be-displayed-at-new-yorks-times-square-on-august-5-2271234

 
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #130 on: August 03, 2020, 07:08:46 AM »

In Bihar it seems LJP is coming out against elections in Oct 2020 joining ranks of RJD-INC in asking for a delay.  JD(U) is eager for an earlier election before the impact of the virus gets worse but RJD is determined to delay it for the exactly that reason.  LJP coming out for a delay is another sign that LJP might exit from the JD(U)-BJP-LJP alliance.  On the other hand there are signs that HAM might switch back to NDA.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #131 on: August 07, 2020, 03:45:30 PM »

India Today semi-annual Mood of the Nation poll.

Best choice for PM
Modi                 66%
Rahul Gandhi      8%
Sonia Gandhi      5%

Modi miles ahead



Modi's handling of Covid-19 pandemic
Outstanding      29%
Good                48%
Average            18%
Poor                   5%

Was India's response to Covid-19 better or worse than other countries
Better               43%
At Par               48%
Worse                7%

There is a good argument that India's response has been poor in absolute and relative terms.  But India's voters gives the Modi regime high marks.


Rating of INC as opposition party
Outstanding        9%
Good                 35%
Average             32%
Poor                  21%

INC's position poor and not getting any better with infighting.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #132 on: August 08, 2020, 02:16:22 PM »

More details from India Today's MOTN poll


 


If LS elections were held now the result would be

           Vote share             Seats
NDA       42%(+1%)       316 (+13)
  BJP        36%(--)            283 (+12)
UPA       27%(-2%)          93 (-15)           
  INC        19%(-1%)         49 (-11)
Rest      31%(+1%)        134 (+2)

Very little change from Jan 2020 poll and a replication of 2019 LS elections with the only difference that SHS is no longer in NDA and will cost NDA/BJP seats

The poll also gamed out how would thinks look if UPA got bigger by bring in more allies


If 17 opposition parties which includes SP, BSP, TDP, Left Front, AIUDF, RLD etc etc join UPA

NDA will still win but BJP will miss majority by itself

           Vote share         Seats
NDA        42%                301
  BJP          36%                269
UPA         39%               153
  INC          19%                53
Others     19%                 89

If in addition to 17 opposition parties joining UPA, SHS, AITC, and AAP join UPA.  Then NDA narrowly wins majority with UPA beating out NDA in terms of vote share

           Vote share         Seats
NDA        42%                282
  BJP          36%                250
UPA         45%               212
  INC          19%                55
Others     13%                 49

I think it will never work out this way as all these parties vote bases will be hard to merge.   49 does seem large for Others in such a scenario.   I guess it will be BJD YSRCP TRS AIMIM.  I find it hard for these 4 parties to egt to 49 seats.  In such a polarized election I doubt BJD and YSRCP can repeat the 21 and 25 seats they won last time.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #133 on: August 08, 2020, 04:45:59 PM »

Do you think if India adopted UK or CDN style leadership elections, the Gandhi family would still have total control over their party or would they lose a primary

The MOTN poll actually sort of polled this.



The sum of support for the various Gandhi clan adds up to a near majority.

There is no alternative to the Gandhi clan in the INC.  They, on paper, have national appeal and does not have its political base in any particular state which means they are not a threat to various local INC kinpins.  Their main problem is that their national brand is now far weaker than Modi versus the 2004-2012 period when the Sonia Gandhi brand was fairly strong. 

The best way forward is for INC and the Gandhi clan to recognize the fact that the Gandhi clan can no longer pull in the vote by themselves and run the INC more like a franchise for various local center to center-left political forces.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #134 on: August 11, 2020, 05:28:09 AM »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/news/toi-daily-sachin-pilot-meets-congress-leaders-rahul-gandhi-and-priyanka-gandhi-vadra-rolls-back-his-rebellion/videoshow/77476111.cms

In Rajasthan it seems that INC rebel Sachin Pilot has ended his rebellion after meeting with Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi.  Most likely he could not get the numbers and/or BJP's conditions were to steep.  For now the Rajasthan INC crisis is over.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #135 on: August 12, 2020, 06:29:33 AM »

ECI has made it clear that Bihar assembly election will go ahead most likely in Oct 2020.  Main problem is that the COVID-19 peak in Bihar is expect to be about the same time. There is an argument that perhaps by that time Bihar would be closer to herd immunity so it will not matter.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #136 on: August 12, 2020, 10:07:52 AM »

Now that the Bihar assembly is most likely going to take place by Oct it would be useful to get a sense of what the seat sharing talks are looking like.

In 2015 the seat sharing was

NDA
BJP     157
LJP       42
RLSP    23
HAM     21

UPA
JD(U)  101
RJD     101
INC      41

On the UPA side with JD(U) gone the RJD is looking for a larger share of seats.

https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/bihar-election-2020-rjd-congress-agree-on-163-plus-80-formula/2052686/

Seems to indicate that RJD and INC have agreed on a 163-80 split.  Namely RJD will get 163 and then RJD will negotiate with VIP and CPI(ML) to hand out seats out of its 163 quota.  INC is given 80 and will negotiate with HAM, RLSP, and perhaps CPI out of its quota of 80.   On the INC front most likely the split will be INC 40 HAM 20 RLSP 20 although HAM most likely would not accept this and could defect to NDA.  It is not clear if HAM could get a better deal from NDA.  RJD most likely will give VIP 10 and CPI(ML) 10 although the alliance with CPI(ML) will be most likely be partial.

On the NDA side it seems the BJP is looking for at least 102 while JD(U) wants at least 120 with LJP demanding  at least the 42 it got in 2015.  It is clear that these 3 claims are not compatible.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/jd-u-snubs-ljp-says-alliance-in-bihar-is-with-bjp-nda-rift-widens/story-fXDqFAkiiWN9CSzPuVxDAI.html

LJP's demand of 42 seats is clearly not realistic given that the NDA now have 2 large parties (BJP and JD(U)) versus 1 back in 2015.  It is likely that LJP will defect from NDA although it would not be clear if LJP will join UPA or go it alone.  If HAM joins NDA then it is more likely LJP will join UPA since both parties claim to be "the Dalit party" and any one alliance cannot have two "the Dalit party."  In 2015 this was clearly a problem that LJP-HAM rivalry dogged the NDA campaign.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #137 on: August 16, 2020, 02:56:51 PM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/rjd-cong-finalise-seat-sharing-deal-manjhi-s-ham-not-happy/story-frO6cHWG4M4N1RupprX3WP.html

Seems to indicate the RJD-INC deal in Bihar is RJD 152 INC 91 as opposed to RJD 163 INC 80.  It seems RJD will allocate 30 seats (!!) to VIP and a few to CPI(ML) as a part of a likely tactical alliance.  INC will keep 42 out of the 91 for itself and allocate 49 to RLSP HAM and CPI where I assume it will be something like RLSP 23 HAM 20 CPI 5.  It seems the only UPA ally that is unhappy is HAM and according to

https://english.newstracklive.com/news/patna-jeetan-ram-manjhi-party-hampraising-cm-nitish-what-a-sign-for-chirag-pas-wan-brvj-mc25-nu870-ta870-ta277-1112601-1.html

HAM is warming up to Nitish Kumar as LJP is getting more hostile with the chances of these two parties swapping places becoming more likely by the day.

Main problem for UPA is that if LJP leaves NDA it is reactivity easier for NDA to accommodate HAM as JD(U)-BJP will most likely allocate it 20-25 seats allowing both BJP and JD(U) to contest 100+ seats.  If LJP joines UPA then they will demand 40 seats at least and RJD will have to eat more into its quota to accommodate LJP.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #138 on: August 20, 2020, 07:07:56 PM »

In Bihar, as expected HAM exits from UPA mostly due to not getting the number of seats it wants.  Not clear where HAM will end up.  Going it alone would be suicide but trying to join NDA would mean it would not get that many seats in NDA (at most 20 which is around what it would get if it would have stayed in UPA or even less.)  Also given the HAM-LJP rivalry over being THE DALIT PARTY there is no way LJP would accept HAM entering NDA.  But with LJP also likely to exit NDA unless it gets it quota of seats LJP could also exit.  Given HAM was really a JD(U) splinter perhaps the best way forward is for former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi to swallow his pride and arrange for HAM to merge HAM back into JD(U) by accepting the leadership of Jitan Ram Manjhi's former leader Nitish Kumar of JD(U).

All things equal this makes seat sharing arrangements in UPA much easier and it would now be likely that CPI and CPI(ML) can be accommodated.  Still LJP might come knocking soon to join UPA and then the tussle over seat sharing will begin again.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #139 on: August 21, 2020, 12:06:13 PM »

will bjp win up 2022 and do u think modi will run in 2024? if not will it be amit or yogi

My guess for the significant assembly elections over the next few years

2020 Bihar - Narrow incumbent JD(U)-BJP victory over RJD-INC. 
2021 WB - Incumbent AITC defeats BJP with INC and Left Front totally marginalized.  WB would have gone from a Left Front-INC bipolar state in 1998 to a AITC-BJP bipolar state in 2021.
2021 TN - DMK-INC victory over incumbent AIADMK-BJP
2021 Assam - Narrow incumbent BJP-AGP-BPF victory over INC with tactical alliance with AIUDF.  Anti-CAA AASU-AJYCP is likely to form a new party and could throw the election to INC if they form a tactical alliance with INC
2021 Kerala - INC led UDF defeats Left Front led incumbent LDF
2021 J&K - JKN-INC defeats BJP with JKN sweeping Kashmir and INC with JKN support sweeping Muslim areas in Jammu while BJP sweep Hindu part of Jammu
2022 Punjab - SAD-BJP narrowly defeats incumbent INC. 
2022 Uttarakhand - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 UP - incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over a resurgent SP
2022 HP - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 Gujarat - INC narrowly defeats incumbent BJP
2023 Karnataka - INC defeats incumbent BJP.   
2023 MP - Incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over INC
2023 Rajasthan - BJP defeats incumbent INC
2023 Chhattisgarh - Incumbent INC wins re-election over BJP
2023 Telangana - TRS win re-election over both INC and BJP that split the anti-TRS vote

As for 2024 LS elections on paper Modi should step down and hand the BJP reigns to Amit Shah.  Usually after a landslide victory like 2019 previous Indian rulings parties overreach their mandate and is face with an unexpected defeat in the next election (1977 and 1989).  So far given the COVID-19 crisis and PRC border dispute where aggressive government action is viewed in a positive way by the electorate the BJP seems to be avoiding that fate even though 2024 is far away.  INC's weak leadership under Rahul Gandhi clearly will also help BJP.  If Modi can operate the BJP in a way to help Amit Shah lead the BJP to victory in 2024 then he will go down in Indian history as the most consequential PM with the exception of Nehru.  A lot could still go wrong like Modi trying to stay on for a third term or Amit Shah not having the charisma like Modi but the most likely future is a Amit Shah led BJP victory in 2024.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #140 on: August 21, 2020, 06:06:13 PM »


Do you think bjp will make inroads in the south, imo they have to because it’ll serve as a buffer when they eventually lose seats in the Hindi heartland

Given the BJP political paradigm is now about building an ethno-state based on the Indo-Aryan Hindu identity there is very little chance the deep South (TN and Kerala) will vote for BJP in large numbers.  Karnataka whose Kannada is somewhat sanskritized is more open to BJP while there is a chance of AP and Telegana which speaks Telegu with some level of Sanskritization could also be open to voting for BJP in larger numbers.  In the deep South the BJP can only count on finding local allies using its clout at the Federal level.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #141 on: August 22, 2020, 07:21:02 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bihar-assembly-elections-nitish-kumars-party-jd-u-wont-gain-anything-tej-pratap-on-father-in-laws-move-2283301

3 rebel RJD MLAs join JD(U) as election nears.  One of the rebel RJD MLAs is Chandrika Rai who is the estranged father-in-law of current RJD leader Tej Pratap Yadav (son of Lalu Yadav).     Tej Pratap Yadav got married to the daughter of key RJD kingpin Chandrika Rai in an arranged marriage in 2018.  Within a few months he was demanding a divorce, something his jailed father Lalu Yadav forbade.  Out of anger Tej Pratap Yadav acted against his father-in-law and pretty much drove him out of the party and now into JD(U).
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #142 on: August 23, 2020, 06:31:07 AM »

If you go by these articles

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/bjp-may-soon-begin-seat-sharing-talks-with-allies-in-bihar/story-cVoaIA01R5fjSLTFV3dtIO.html

http://www.asianage.com/india/politics/230820/bjp-jdu-ljp-trurn-allies-for-bihar-assembly-elections.html

It seems that despite everything NDA will be JD(U)-BJP-LJP-HAM.  The seat sharing formula will be JD(U)-BJP share seats 50/50 with HAM getting some seats (7??) from the JD(U) quota and BJP giving LJP some seats (LJP is asking for 42) out of its quota.

I will be very impressed if the NDA pull this off.  I find it hard to believe HAM will accept 7 seat as they will want at least 20.  I also find it hard to believe that the BJP will accept a 50/50 formula but where BJP has to allocate seats out of its quota to LJP as it is clear that LJP will want and get a lot more seats than HAM.  Such a formula could trigger a revolt in the BJP.

I am also convinced that Nitish Kumar got HAM to come over to NDA for the explicit purpose of driving out LJP by making HAM the NDA face for Dalits.

It is not 100% clear to me that election will even take place in October.  There are rumors that the RJD-INC alliance might break apart as the Upper Caste faction within INC are pushing for INC to run separately from RJD to recapture the old INC Upper Caste vote from the BJP.  If this were to take place I can see the BJP

a) Breaking its alliance with JD(U) to make it a 4 way BJP-LJP vs RJD-RLSP-VIP vs JD(U)-HAM vs INC battle.  In such as case I can even see RLSP going over to BJP.
b) Use the COVID-19 crisis to push out the election beyond Nov 2020 so the election will be held with Bihar under Presidential Rule which in essence mean the local Bihar state machinery will pass from JD(U) to the Federal government (aka BJP.)  With the local authorities under the BJP control the BJP can then win the 4 way battle.

In fact I think the reason why LJP has not broken with NDA and gone over to UPA is that it is waiting and watching to see if this 4 way battle scenario comes to pass.

The best way to figure out what will happen is to wait for ECI to declare an election date.  If the date is before Nov 2020 then the JD(U)-BJP alliance will remain intact and the main unknown is if LJP will stick with NDA or go over to the UPA.

A 4 way battle will be fun.  If I had to guess the BJP-LJP should emerge as the largest bloc but not clear if they will form a majority.  I recon it would be something like

BJP-LJP             35%
RJD-RLSP-VIP    30%
JD(U)-HAM        20%
INC                   10%

with the BJP victory margin even larger if RLSP goes over toe BJP-LJP.  What is holding back a JD(U)-BJP alliance despite having a larger core voting bloc and a very popular Modi is the anti-incumbency built up against Nitish Kumar after 15 years of being CM (with a brief interlude when now HAM leader Jitan Ram Manjhi being a proxy CM for Nitish Kumar).  BJP running without JD(U) is actually better for the BJP this election cycle.  Main risk is that a BJP-JD(U) split will let in RJD-INC.  But if RJD and INC would split up that would be the signal for the BJP to strike.  The main conflict within BJP is really between pro- and anti- Nitish Kumar factions so we will not know the result until ECI comes out with their decision on exact election date.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #143 on: August 23, 2020, 09:20:29 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/over-20-top-congress-leaders-write-to-sonia-gandhi-over-leadership-crisis-2283866

Sonia Gandhi resigns as interim INC President.  Most likely the result of internal INC tussle between pro-Sonia Old Guards versus pro-Rahul Young Turks.  Now there will be pressure for Sonia Gandhi to rescind her resignation and pressure for Rahul Gandhi to resume his role as INC President.   

For me it does not matter who the leader is but it is about how the party is run.  I think the way forward for INC is for it and the Gandhi family to accept that the Gandhi family does not pull in votes and push for decentralization.  INC should be run like a franchise where for various local ambitious Center to Center-Left politicians INC can act as a platform and ready made name recognition to glue their vote base or cause to.    While this does not win any LS elections it at least allows INC to survive on the local level.  Eventually the BJP, after 5 10 or 15 years, will implode and at least the INC will be the largest alternative to sweep back in.  To do that they will need a leader that is charismatic and cut throat which is clearly not Rahul Gandhi.  But in the meantime the Gandhi's can work to ensure the survival of INC over the coming few election cycles.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #144 on: August 24, 2020, 04:09:05 PM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/after-7-hour-cwc-meet-congress-promises-change-in-6-months-still-keeps-sonia-gandhi-as-interim-chief-1714687-2020-08-25

"After 7-hour CWC meet, Congress promises change in 6 months, still keeps Sonia Gandhi as interim chief"

So it is kicking can down the road it is. 
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #145 on: August 31, 2020, 07:32:18 AM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pranab-mukherjee-ex-president-and-congress-veteran-dies-in-delhi-hospital/story-sKOIeIEmCyY9OcGziScT9I.html

Pranab Mukherjee, ex-president and Congress veteran, dies in Delhi hospital

He was Prez of India 2012-2017 and was the leader of WB INC for years. He actually created an INC splinter RSC in 1986 after a blowup with Rajiv Gandhi, did badly in the 1987 WB assembly election,  merged it back into INC in 1989 right before the 1989 LS elections after reconciling with Rajiv Gandhi.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #146 on: August 31, 2020, 07:42:20 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/india-gdp-data-1st-quarter-live-updates-coronavirus-lockdown-6577361/

India Q2 GDP fell 23.9% !!! YoY which has to be the worst Q2 GDP result of any significant economy in the world.  There is reason to believe it is worse than this since GDP figures tend to capture more of the formal sector and we know that the ill advised draconian lockdown of March-April clearly hit the informal sector based on migrant laborers more.

Still Modi is riding high which teach us something about leadership.  Machiavelli pointed out that a leader must be seen as making decisive decisions.  Modi's draconian lockdown in March-April might have been an economic disaster but it was a political boon for Modi as it projected Modi as a decisive leader. 
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #147 on: September 02, 2020, 05:56:59 AM »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/manjhi-to-join-hands-with-nitish-tomorrow-may-get-nine-seats/articleshow/77877850.cms

As expected, HAM joins NDA although it is more like HAM joins alliance with JD(U).  The alliance pattern in NDA seems now to be an alliance based on commutative property.  Namely HAM has an alliance with JD(U) which has an alliance with BJP which has an alliance with LJP.  JD(U)-HAM and LJP most likely do not view each other as allies and at most non-enemies with a common ally of BJP.  This is a very unstable alliance and could crack anytime

It seems HAM will get at least 9 seats out of the JD(U) quota with JD(U) and BJP each getting half the seats and BJP sharing with LJP out of its quota.  I find this hard to believe as this means BJP will contest a lot less seats than JD(U) since LJP will demand 41 seats at least and I cannot see how they go below 30 while HAM most likely can get 10 at most from JD(U).  Such a situation could lead to a revolt in the BJP.  The only alternative is for BJP to squeeze the LJP seat count toward 10 which will only mean LJP leaving NDA.  If BJP can accept JD(U)-BJP splitting seats 50/50 and them accommodate LJP without LJP bolting and avoid a BJP rebellion then the BJP deserves to win this election. 
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #148 on: September 04, 2020, 05:27:47 AM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/bihar-election/bihar-assembly-elections-65-by-polls-due-in-other-states-to-be-held-simultaneously-eci/story-qsNXKCBdhtJBtBKA8buDdO.html

ECI has indicated that 65 outstanding by-elections and Bihar assembly elections will be held at the same time without indicating when that will be.  Given the Bihar assembly elections has to held by Nov it is most likely it will be Oct.

The 65 by-elections included

10 in Gujarat - mostly INC MLAs that resigned to join BJP in order to give BJP a 3-1 win in the most recent RS election versus 2-2
27 in MP - almost all INC MLAs that resigned to join BJP and bring down the INC government
13 in Manipur - mostly INC MLs but a few BJP MLAs that resigned as part of a BJP civil war and BJP-INC war over control of the current BJP government
8 in UP - mostly BJP MLA that have died, elected as MP or disqualified

rest scattered across various states.

So the MP mini assembly election will be held at the same time as Bihar assembly election 
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #149 on: September 06, 2020, 03:34:32 PM »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/chirag-paswan-slams-nitish-kumar-ahead-of-ljp-meet-to-decide-ties-with-jdu-in-bihar-polls/articleshow/77964600.cms

"Chirag Paswan slams Nitish Kumar ahead of LJP meet to decide ties with JD(U) in Bihar polls"

Looks like LJP will be making a call soon if they are going to stay in NDA.  The escalation of hostilities between JD(U) and LJP made a huge jump once HAM entered into NDA and it was intimidate in terms of war of wards.  After HAM entered NDA, LJP threatened to run candidates against JD(U) while HAM threatened to run candidates against LJP which makes a mockery of this alliance.  Unless BJP can come up with a bunch of concessions to LJP more likely than not LJP will exit NDA if for nothing else than for image and face reasons.
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