|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 05, 2021, 05:58:55 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Will Macron get reelected?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3]
Author Topic: Will Macron get reelected?  (Read 4157 times)
morgieb
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,573
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.55, S: -8.09

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: January 02, 2021, 08:12:21 AM »

Probably, but I still get somewhat of an inkling he'll be Jospin'd.
Logged
Lechasseur
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,893
France


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: January 02, 2021, 09:34:08 AM »

I think he will simply because half the population would prefer him to any likely runoff opponent. He'd obviously beat Le Pen again. Against someone like Fillon he'd also get the reluctant support of the left. Meanwhile the right would definitely back him over someone like Melenchon.

French runoffs don't always work by a strict median-voter paradigm (otherwise Mitterrand would have won 1974 but lost 1981, for example). Sometimes a candidate wins because they're the most charismatic, or there's a huge anti-incumbent backlash, or the time is right in some other way, even when it seems like they're too extreme on paper.

I agree that Le Pen and Mélenchon would both probably lose, but I'm not necessarily convinced that less toxic figures from the right or the left would. I could see two general profiles who could defeat FBM: either someone from the ""social"" wing of the right (ie mildly/performatively #populist Purple heart with a general law-and-order vibe but not mouth-foamingly xenophobic, like Xavier Bertrand), or someone who's able to consolidate both the yuppie bobo left who was disappointed by FBM and the #populist Purple heart left at the same time. That's not an easy task, of course, but it's what allowed so many ecologist mayors to win last year, so it's far from impossible.

What do you mean by Mitterrand winning in 1974 but losing in 1981 instead of it being the other way round like IRL with the median-voter paradigm? What do you mean by that?

That being said, essentially what happened IRL is VGE won in 1974 because he was a young modernizer at a time when that's what France wanted, and he lost in 1981 because Chirac told his supporters behind closed doors to vote for Mitterrand (and the VGE vs Chirac rivalry I think played a big part in Chirac losing in 1988, as a lot of UDF voters who logically should have been voting for the non-left candidate broke for Mitterrand in the second round. While I do think that's in big part due to the fact that Mitterrand was probably the most charismatic and leader like president France has had along with De Gaulle, I think part of it as well is a lot of UDF voters didn't like Chirac and also weren't comfortable with his pre-1990s Euroscepticism (Chirac became pro-EU in the early 1990s when he understood he'd never become president without supporting it).

Also, how is Xavier Bertrand? What do you think of him? How different is he from Macron in your opinion? And also, what do you mean by being law and order without being xenophobic? How different is he from other LR politicians?

And yeah, I think the left could do quite well if they'd just agree on one non-Melenchon candidate to run. Who do you think would be the best person for the left to run? I'm thinking Anne Hidalgo, but I'd like to hear what you think.
Logged
Lechasseur
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,893
France


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: January 02, 2021, 09:35:50 AM »

Probably, but I still get somewhat of an inkling he'll be Jospin'd.

Frankly it's not impossible.

He even lost my dad's support, and he was his biggest cheerleader until this year.

If he has a serious non-Le Pen challenger in either round, his reelection bid is in huge trouble imo.

And the scary thing is he's disliked enough by most people I could see Le Pen winning because so many people just stay home this time round, even though I think Macron is still favoured against Le Pen.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,146


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: January 02, 2021, 11:53:00 AM »
« Edited: January 02, 2021, 11:56:16 AM by Frenchrepublican »

Yeah, it's very likely, at least at the moment.

Firstly Macron has a pretty good approval rate of around 40%, which is quite good for a French president, to give you an idea Hollande was at 27% in 2016 and Sarkozy was at 31% in 2011.

Secondly Macron doesn't have a serious challenger and it's hard to see who could mount a serious campaign against him : Le Pen is guaranteed to get around 1/5 of the electorate and will likely get a place in the second round, but she is too weak and too toxic to be a real threat to Macron / the left is deeply divided and it's hard to see who could unite it, Hidalgo (the mayor of the city of Paris) will likely try to get the socialist nomination, but Melechon doesn't appreciate her and will not defer to her, the Greens will= likely put a candidate too, so the left will be divided between three candidates, if not more / LR has been weakened considerably by Macron as the centrists have left the party and only represents around 12% of the electorate and they are deeply divided, most of the LR establishment wants to support Bertrand, but Bertrand is no longer a member of the party and many militants hate him and are backing the more conservative Retailleu (a senator close to Fillon)
Logged
Lord Halifax
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,425
Papua New Guinea


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: January 02, 2021, 12:22:53 PM »

Hidalgo (the mayor of the city of Paris) will likely try to get the socialist nomination

Apparently she's not running.
https://www.20minutes.fr/politique/2692583-20200111-anne-hidalgo-candidate-presidentielle-2022
Logged
Lechasseur
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,893
France


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: January 02, 2021, 12:51:32 PM »


That article is a year old

That's from January last year, no one is going to be stating they're running for president 2 years out and especially during a relatively competitive reelection campaign (this was 2 months before the mayoral election first round).

I think she will run, it's not like PS really have anyone else.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.156 seconds with 12 queries.