2024: Open Season

[terp40hitch]

2024

Open Season

November 4th, 2020

9:00 AM, CNN New York Headquarters

Wolf Blitzer: "Former Vice-President Joe Biden wins the presidency with 278 electoral votes, President Donald Trump ends up with 260 electoral votes while third party candidates such as former Governor Lincoln Chafee once again leave with 0 electoral votes. Joe Biden could decrease or increase his lead in electoral votes depending on if either side want to pursue recounts in either Arizona or Wisconsin but most likely both parties will choose to save the time, money and effort since either way, Joe Biden will be the president of the United States of America for the next four years. Now over to Anderson with the updates on the Senate and the House.

Anderson Cooper: "Thank you, Wolf, The Senate will stay in Republican hands. This was a pretty early call compared to the rest of the elections. Some important freshmen will be incoming Senator from Kansas, Representative Roger Marshall who won a close primary. Kelly Loeffler of Georgia and Martha McSally both were able to retain seats with stronger margins than the President. We almost did have an upset in Michigan but a late boost of support from the vice-presidential candidate Sally Yates helped put Gary Peters over the top against John James who has lost his second race in a row. In Colorado, Democrats were able to flip their one and only seat against Cory Gardner who was pulled down by his relationship with the President. John Hickenlooper was constantly attacked for his presidential campaign which damaged him in the primary but he did come out the victor. Republican were able to counteract that lost in Colorado with a gain in Alabama. Doug Jones who won in a surprise victory in 2017 lost against Tommy Tuberville. In the end, the Senate will be a 53-47 margin with Republicans remaining in the majority for the time being.

Now, in the house, Democrats were easily able to retain the majority with a few fewer members. These are just some of the members that won't be coming back; Jared Goldin of Maine, Anthony Brinsdi of New York, Cindy Axne of Iowa and Abiligal Spanberger from Virginia who was part of the moderate squad. Republicans did lose some seats too, most came from retiring members but they lost a few members such as Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania. In the end, Republicans ended up gaining 13 seats while Democrats fought and won eight meaning Republicans only had a net gain of five seats. This means the house is currently 206 vs 229 which means in 2022, Republicans will need twelve seats to win the majority.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/5po1v8l

Now we are going to governorships with Dana Bash who has been studying this for the whole night.

Dana Bash: There is only one change of leadership tonight, Montana will no longer have a Democratic governor. Tim Fox was able to overcome Lt. Governor Mike Cooney's name recognition and likeability to flip the partisan of the seat. Democrats were looking early at the West Virginia seat but poor candidate with a bad national climate, they stopped spending money nearly three months ago to save Roy Cooper in North Carolina. Cooper had a surprisingly strong finish, winning by more than seven percent.

[UWS]

I predict the following for 2022 :  the Republicans take the House of Representatives, in the Senate they will seriously contest vulnerable seats like New Hampshire and Nevada.

[President Johnson]

Interesting. Is Kamala vice president?

[terp40hitch]

Interesting. Is Kamala vice president?

Sally Yates actually, I was thinking about choosing Hassen, Shaheen, Abrams or Slotkin but in the end, I think Sally Yates would be Biden's VP.  It wouldn't hurt senate composition and wouldn't have a VP that would overshadow him

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November 8th, 2022

1:00 PM, MSNBC News Room

Ali Velshi: Welcome to election day edition of Velshi and Ruhle. We have a series of stories that we will discuss today but first, we will be looking at the tightest races in the country.

Stephanie Ruhle: We have a series of guest and we will be looking first at the Senate races which are crucial for Democrats. Most people on both sides ave determined it will be almost impossible for Democrats to flip the chamber but they are hoping to reduce the amount of loses. The first race we are looking at is New Hampshire where Senator and Former Governor Maggie Hassen is facing popular incumbent Governor Chris Sununu who has been able to be elected in extremely tough years. The polls show an extremely tough race with Hassen having a slight lead but Hassen and the DSCC is worried that boost of enthusiasm from the Republicans will flip the lead to Sununu tonight. Both parties have invested heavily in that race...

Ali Velshi: Another race where they have started to both invested heavily in the end as the race got closer was the state of Nevada where Senator Cathrine Cortez-Mastro was in a closer than expected race. Cortez-Mastro called allies in the DNC and DSCC last month to beg for last-minute money infusion in the race. Cortez-Mastro still leads the race by around three percent but Nevada is known to be not able to be polled. The Republicans have spent less money but have significantly increased the investment.

Stephanie Ruhle: We do have Senator Cortez-Mastro as a guest later on in the day but we have a quote from the campaign manager that stated, "We are confident of victory, we are confident that our GOTV operations will put us over the top. We are used to close races and we are used to winning those races too." I would definitely say that is someone who is confident of victory. If they do lose then, then it will be an awful night for Democrats. If they lose Nevada then they most likely have already lost New Hampshire and it could be a close race in Colorado.

Ali Velshi: If it is that bad in the Senate then it will be much worse in the house, I would be worried if I were Susie Lee, Abby Finkenauer, Elaine Luria, Jennifer Wexton or Rita Hart.

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November 8th, 2022

7:00 PM, CNN Election Headquarters

Wolf Blitzer: The first polls are officially closed in the first six states with Florida having part of their state polls closed. Anderson will give you all the calls we have at this time.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/XpAxYZK

Andrerson Cooper: Currently, in the House, Republicans have already picked up three seats in the house. Lucy McBeth, Carolyn Bourdeaux, and Elaine Luria have all lost reelection which proves the Republicans picking up steam in the suburbs once again post-Trump. Some Democrats did survive tough contests like Jennifer Wexton and Debbie Mucareal-Powell who both were elected in 2018. Republicans will still have to hold onto all their tough races while also picking up nine more seats. In the Senate, We do have some calls. Vermont will send back to the Senate their incumbent Senator, never a competitive race but helps Democrats reach fifty seats. In Indiana, Todd Young has held onto his seat. In Kentucky, Rand Paul has easily powered his victory for another six years. In South Carolina, Tim Scott who has been mentioned as a potential 2024 presidential candidate has won reelection. In Georgia, it is too early to call but most likely it will become too close to call between Mayor Ted Terry and Senator Kelly Loeffler.

Wolf Blitzer: That definitely an interesting race, Kelly Loeffler was able to win in Georgia by around three points but had an extremely competitive primary against Doug Collins who won the endorsement of Former President Donald Trump and potential presidential competitor, Matt Gaetz. Loeffler won the support of the state party and much of the establishment which helped put Loeffler over the top. That primary hurt her chances in the general against progressive mayor Ted Terry. Now over to Dana Bash with the Governor's races.

Dana Bash: In Vermont, Phil Scott in a too close to call races. In South Carolina, Henry McMaster has won reelection. In Georgia, the race is too early to call but we can say Brian Kemp is in the lead.

Wolf Blitzer: Brian Kemp is extremely popular which is surprising for someone who hasn't followed his career since elected in 2018. Stacey Abrams tried to have a rematch but wasn't able to regain the popularity she had nor was she the fundraising juggernaut like in 2018. I don't see this staying undecided for much longer than an hour.

[terp40hitch]

November 8th, 2022

7:30 PM, CNN Election Headquarters

Wolf Blitzer: We have breaking news and a series of new calls. First in Georgia where Governor Brian Kemp has beaten Stacey Abrams again after a rematch in 2018. Kemp's win today is much more decisive. Kelly Loeffler is in a much tighter contest and her race as changed from too early to call to too close to call. Now over to Anderson Cooper with the new calls.

Anderson Cooper: West Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina have all just closed their polls. In the House, Republicans have won one more seat. Republicans won Tim Ryan's district in Ohio. Tim Ryan decided to run for Governor and his seat has been won by former Lt. Governor Mary Taylor. Taylor put up a tough fight and has won tonight by around two percent. In the Senate, Rob Portman has won reelection in Ohio with a landslide victory over City Councilman PG Sittenfeld. In North Carolina, Mark Meadows is currently leading but the race is too close to call. North Carolina has had many potential presidential candidates visit such as Ivanka Trump, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom. Currently, the senate has 35 Republicans and 36 Democrats. Dana Bash will now cover the governorships

Dana Bash: As previously reported, Brian Kemp will hold onto his governorships. In Ohio, Mike DeWine has beaten Representative Tim Ryan. DeWine had a primary challenge with former Congressman Jim Renacci who tried to play the Trump in the race. Renacci won the endorsement of the former President and Mike Pence but lost to DeWine by about five percent. DeWine was able to unite the party and won over the independents after the primary even without Renacci endorsing him.

[terp40hitch]

November 8th, 2022

8:00 PM, CNN Election Headquarters

Wolf Blitzer: It is eight o'clock on the eastern coast and we have more calls. First, CNN can call the House of Representatives for the Republicans. Currently, Republicans have picked up more than fifteen seats when they just needed twelve to win. We are predicting in the end that the Republican party will be able to pick up between twenty-five to thirty seats which are short of the gains of Democrats in 2018 and Republicans in 2010. Some of the Democrats not returning to congress are Lauren Underwood, Matthew Cartwright, Andy Kim and Lizzie Fletcher

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/QK1m1QK

Dana Bash: Truly stunning loses, truly proves that suburbs should not be taken for granted by any party and this is definitely the start of something much bigger. If the twenty-five seats are right then I would be biting my nails if I were some of the other Democrats from 2018 wave.

Anderson Cooper: In the Senate, it looks even more brutal. We can officially call Georgia for Kelly Loeffler who was able to win a close primary this year against a Trump-loyalist. In Alabama, Richard Shelby has won reelection. In Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, has won reelection. In Florida, the race is too close to call between Senator Rubio and Representative Ted Deutch. In Illinois, Senator Tammy Duckworth has won reelection. In Kansas, Jerry Moran has won reelection. In Maryland, Chris Van Hollen has won reelection. In Missouri, Senator Roy Blunt has won reelection. In New Hampshire, the race is too close to call between Senator Maggie Hassen and Governor Chris Sununu. Senator James Lankford has easily been reelected. Senator Pat Toomey in a too close to call race in Pennsylvania. In South Dakota, Senator John Thune has won reelection. Thune could be potentially the next majority leader once McConnell leaves the position and he has proven to be strong in tight races. That means Republicans currently have two of their seats in tossups while Democrats have one. If Democrats want the majority, they will need to win both those seats while picking up one more race and holding onto the New Hampshire race. This means the Senate is currently at 41 Republicans and 39 Democrats.

Dana Bash: In the Governorships, we can call a few of these races. In Alabama, Governor Kay Ivey has beaten former Senator Doug Jones. In Connecticut, Governor Ned Lamont is in a too close to call race. In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis has won reelection. In Illinois, Governor J.B. Pritzer has won reelection. Kansas is too close to call. In Maine, Governor Janet Mills is in a too close to call race with Adrienne Bennett, a former official in Governor Paul LePage's cabinet. In Massachusetts, Governor Charlie Baker has won a third term. In Maryland, the race is too close to call. In New Hampshire, Former Senator Kelly Ayotte has won Governor Sununu's seat who is currently running for senate. In Oklahoma, Governor Kevin Stitt has won reelection. In Pennsylvania, the race is too close to call. In Rhode Island, the race is too close to call. In South Dakota, Governor Kristi Noem has easily soared to victory. In Tennesee, Governor Bill Lee has won reelection. In Texas, potential 2024 presidential candidate and Governor Greg Abbott have won reelection.

John King: That are some brutal beatings of the Democrats. If you look at the northeast, Republicans could have each and every one of those governors mansions.

Dana Bash: It will definitely be a definitely interesting statement from President Biden in the morning since he was easily helped in the primary by his electability argument. Biden championed his ability to elect Democrats up and down the ticket. This could hurt his reelection...

John King: Very true in a primary but I don't think it has much impact on the general election since midterms don't really affect the presidential elections just look at 2010 and 2012 or 2018 and 2020. Truly, if midterms had an impact then Romney would be president, Biden would've crushed Trump and carried the Senate.

Dana Bash: We do have one more call, in Vermont, Phil Scott has won reelection which means three out of six of northeastern states are controlled by Republicans. Also, Republicans are just four seats away from the majority but they still could lose if they can't hold onto Maryland and can't pick up states like Kansas.

[terp40hitch]

November 8th, 2022

8:30 PM, CNN Election Headquarters

Wolf Blitzer: We have three calls at this hour, First out of Florida. Senator Marco Rubio has won a third term beating Representative Ted Deutch. Our other two calls come out of Arkansas. Senator Tom Cotton has won reelection, Sarah Huckabee Sanders has won Arkansas's governorship. Three potential 2024 presidential candidates and all had relatively easy races which allowed both Cotton and Rubio to build up a war chest for next year. Now, John King is going to go further into the governorships

John King: Right now, Republicans hold 22 governorships and Democrats hold just 7. Democrats have only won one governorship today which is Illinois. I have talked to Democratic strategist and they are nervous about Maine and Pennsylvania more than they are about Laura Kelly's race in Kansas. That is a good sign for that red-state Democrat who had been relatively popular. Laura Kelly is facing an unpopular opponent like in 2018 but has been a fundraising machine this cycle. In Maryland, Governor Larry Hogan is term-limited currently and Democrats were eager to gain that seat. Hogan's Lt. Governor Boyd Rutherford is running against Ben Jealous who had many scandals along the way which weighed him down. If Democrats lose Maryland again then there is no way that they will win the majority now or in 2024 especially if they lose a seat or two in 2021 with two red-state Governors either running for reelection or term-limited.

Dana Bash: Well, Democrats just need to win two states to be tied for governorships...

John King: Yes but if they lose Michigan, they will have to run the table and win Iowa and Arizona and prevent loses in the Northeast and out in Nevada and Kansas.

[terp40hitch]

Also comment the people you want to see run. I already have a list but I would like to see who you guys think is going to run since I’m trying to make this pretty realistic

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Sarah Huckabee Sanders would not have a chance at winning a primary in Arkansas if Trump were to lose re-election.

[Roll Roons]

Also comment the people you want to see run. I already have a list but I would like to see who you guys think is going to run since I’m trying to make this pretty realistic

Republicans: Haley, Pence, DeSantis, Hogan, Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Cotton
Democrats: Yates, Duckworth, Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, Cuomo, Kaine, Sherrod Brown, JBE

[terp40hitch]

Sarah Huckabee Sanders would not have a chance at winning a primary in Arkansas if Trump were to lose re-election.

She is not a big part of this, I really just needed a name for the governor of Arkansas and I still think she would be able to have strong amount of fundraising from connections to Trump and Mike Huckabee

[terp40hitch]

November 8th, 2022

9:00 PM, CNN Election Headquarters

Wolf Blitzer: We do have some early comments from President Biden and Vice-President Yate's team. Many of the comments we have gotten are just saying, what most major networks are saying, "It was whopping." and they also adding that Biden has experience dealing with Republican House and Senate. The DCCC has told members of our election team that they are confident that the wins for Republicans won't be much more as we move into the west but they do believe they could see as many as twenty loses in total.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/4KRBxnK

Anderson Cooper: We do have some more calls at this hour too. In the House, Republicans have actually just surpassed what DCCC was beliving would happen since they have officially made 22 gains. The current totals are 203 to 146 with Republicans going to win the majority in the end if our projection is current. In the Senate, we have multiple calls including a big call to relive pressure from Democrats. In Colorado, Senator Michael Bennet has won reelection which became a much more competitive race than expected. In Arizona, Senator Martha McSally has won a full term to the United States Senate. In New York, Senator Schumer has won another term. In North Dakota, Republicans have kept the seat in their hands. In Wisconsin, the race is too close to call with Leah Vukmir trying to win the seat currently held by retiring senator Ron Johnson. We do have another call from an early closing, Mark Meadows has won North Carolina's Senate seat. Currently, the Senate is 45 Republicans with 41 Democrats.

Dana Bash: On the Governor front, In Arizona, Republicans once again win that governorship. In Colorado, the race is too close to call with Governor Jared Polis. Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan is too close to call race. In Minnesota, another blue wall state that is too close to call. In Nebraska, Republicans hold onto that governor's mansion too. In New Mexico, Governor Michelle Lujan-Grisham has won reelection. Truly stunning since just ten years ago Republicans were investing heavily in that state. In New York, Andrew Cuomo won reelection to a third term. Cuomo is a potential candidate for president and has a lot of power in the state of New York and in the establishment of the DGA. In Wisconsin, Tony Evers is in a close race against the former Lt. Governor under Scott Walker. In Wyoming, Governor Mark Gordon has won reelection. We also have a previous race that we can now officially call, Ned Lamont has lost reelection in Connecticut. And in Kansas, Laura Kelly has held onto her seat. That means Republicans officially have 25 governorships while Democrats have 10 governorships.

John King: Democrats definitely are feeling mixed feelings right now about that call, all election season they were worried about those two Governors and they were able to win one in a deep red state during a brutal midterm but just lost a New England governorship. Now, Democrats will have to pray for Kim Reynolds to lose, for Rhode Island to stay Democratic, Pick up Maryland, Keep Jared Polis and Janet Mills in their seats. I think that illustrates to everyone listening that, this is a tough night and will be a hard thing to come by.

[President Johnson]

Also comment the people you want to see run. I already have a list but I would like to see who you guys think is going to run since I’m trying to make this pretty realistic

Republicans: Haley, Pence, DeSantis, Hogan, Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Cotton
Democrats: Yates, Duckworth, Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, Cuomo, Kaine, Sherrod Brown, JBE

Gretchen Whitmer if she wins reelection.

[terp40hitch]

November 9th, 2022

4:37 AM, CNN Election Headquarters

Wolf Blitzer: We can finally make our last call of tonight, In Michigan, Governor Gretchen Whitmer has won reelection. Now let's look at our maps with John King.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/3lv5A0V

John King: Republicans have won the house carrying 231 seats, picking up 7. Democrats have won 204 seats and picked up only a single seat with Jamie Herold Butler retiring. Republicans have gained the majority in the four years since 2019. Republicans have had a good year but I wouldn't call it a wave-like Democrats in 2018 or Republicans in 2010.

John King: In the Senate, it is even more clear that it wasn't a huge wave year. Republicans maintain the majority and Governor Chris Sununu picked up the New Hampshire Senate seat from Senator Maggie Hassen who was on the shortlist for vice-presidents of Joe Biden just two years ago. Hassen lost by just one percent which was nearly as close as her victory against former Senator Kelly Ayotte. Democrats did have trouble but it could be much worse, they did save Senator Cortez-Mastro and Senator Bennet but weren't able to unseat Martha McSally, Kelly Loeffler, Pat Toomey or Rob Portman.

John King: Republicans did do better in the governorships but are far from what could have done better. Republicans won Connecticut, Wisconsin, Maine, and Nevada while losing Maryland. Still, Republicans were close to keeping Maryland and could have easily picked up Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania and if it was a really good night maybe Colorado or New Mexico. In the Republicans have won thirty governorships and just twenty were won by Democrats. Truly, Republicans should've invested more in Michigan, Colorado, and Pennsylvania to kill some pre-presidential bids if Joe Biden doesn't seek reelection which hasn't been decided yet.

[terp40hitch]

"Trump-Loyalist, Congressman Matt Gaetz Forms Exploratory Commitee"

November 9th, 2022

New York Times-"...Conservative Congressman from Florida, Matt Gaetz, officially announced this morning that he would be launching an exploratory committee less than twenty-four hours after winning a fourth term to the House of Representatives. Gaetz has already started hiring big names including former Trump national spokeswoman and American first policy press secretary, Katrina Pierson, is working as the communications director for the campaign. Pierson has told the press that Gaetz will be expanding his exploratory team by the end of the week to around ten people to fill the main roles in the committee and start growing field operations in the states of Iowa and South Carolina.

Gaetz's campaign has already come under fire for jumping into the field before even starting a fourth term in congress. Much of the heat is coming from other potential competitors from Florida especially Senator Rick Scott who has a long-running feud with the Gaetz family. Scott, Governor Ron DeSantis, and Senator Marco Rubio all have discussed runs for the presidency in 2024 and all started to grow campaign staff teams to prepare for a potential run for office..."

"Will He, Won't He; Advisor Don't Know Wether Joe Biden Will Seek Second Term"

November 10th, 2022

Washington Post-"...Advisor of the President including his former campaign manager, Greg Schultz, all are flying blind as they prepare to start a campaign that they don't know whether it will happen or not. President Biden is now by-far the oldest president to ever hold office which was evident even in 2020 but he has signaled that he could launch a new bid but none of his advisors truly know if it will happen or not.

Already a field of candidates has started to emerge if the President decides to not run including his Vice-President Sally Yates who is leading early polls of the Democratic field without a President Biden campaign. Yates will have to stand in a crowded field most likely including potential two-time candidates such as Julian Castro and Kamala Harris who have already experienced the campaign trail first hand..."

Quinipiac Poll of 2024 Presidential Campaign

November 13th, 2022

Should the President run again?

Yes: 31%

No: 62%

Unsure: 7%

Who would you support in the Republican field?

Mike Pence: 21%

Nikki Haley: 12%

Marco Rubio: 11%

Mike Pompeo: 9%

Ron DeSantis: 7%

Greg Abbott: 6%

Tim Scott: 6%

Liz Cheney: 3%

Rand Paul: 3%

Matt Gaetz: 1%

Chris Christie: 1%

Larry Hogan: 0%

[terp40hitch]

"The Democrats that Survived 2022"

November 20th, 2022

MSNBC- "...Republicans had strong gains in the midterms especially in the suburbs that flipped blue in 2018 and 2020. These gains guarantee Republicans have control of the Senate and the House which will severely harm President Biden's chance of passing important legislation he championed in 2020 but it could have been much worse. Many Democrats ran strong campaigns that saved their districts from flipping including Congresswomen like Jennifer Wexton of Virginia, Cheri Busto of Illinois, Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona, Katie Porter of California, Congressmen like Sean Casten of Illinois and Dean Phillips of Minnesota and most importantly for many Democrats, Senator Cathrine Cortez-Mastro.

Many of these congress members and governors not mentioned above who survived in red districts or states have been recruited to run for office either Senator or President. Senator Cortez-Mastro was fielding calls to run for president and feeling out the field but it quickly stopped as the Governor of Nevada flipped from Democrat to Republican. Democrats are worried that if Cortez-Mastro ran and won then she would lose one more senate seat to a strong Republican majority in the Senate..."  

"New Hires From Team Gaetz"

December 3rd, 2022

Matt Gaetz for President Campaign Press Release: "Today, the Gaetz exploratory committee is proud to announce the first round of hires for the committee and a possible bid for the white house. Congressman Gaetz is announcing his campaign manager and digital communications director along with a series of field staffers. Congressman Gaetz is proud to announce that he has chosen Kieran Mahoney as his campaign manager. Mahoney has long experiences taking down long-time politicians such as Mario Cuomo and he is used to be on the national campaign trail with a limited budget as he was the national strategist on the Gilmore for America campaign in 2016. Labeled as one of the best campaign operatives of his time, Mr. Mahoney will be a great asset to Team Gaetz. Congressman Gaetz is also proud to announce that his digital communications director is his sister Erin Gaetz who has won multiple awards for her digital work including her work on Congressman Gaetz's congressional campaigns and Jeb Bush's 2016 presidential campaign. Erin Gaetz will work under Katrina Pierson's leadership on the communications team as they build out the communications team.

Along with a strong campaign manager and a growing communications team, Congressman Gaetz has hired one field staffer to start growing his organization on the ground in both Iowa and South Carolina. Courtney Klein has deep roots in Iowa, formerly serving as Senator Joni Ernst scheduler, and will start to grow support for the congressman if he decides to jump in the field. We believe with Mr. Mahoney, Ms. Gaetz and Ms. Klein joining Ms. Pierson on the campaign that we will have a strong team to build support for the congressman as he considers his options regarding a presidential campaign."

"RNC Sets Debate Guidelines for 2024"

December 9th, 2022

Miami Daily Times- "The Republican National Committee has just realised standards for the primary debates next year. The RNC faced a wave of criticism following their debates in 2016 and expecting another large field as they faced in 2016, the Republican has realised their standards to make the stage. The first debate will be held on July 9th, 2023 and each candidate must have met 3% in an average of polls at least once in their campaigns as determined by a group of pollsters.

This could be a hard standard for some candidates to reach but the RNC has said it will only have one stage but is allowing candidates to pay for their own debates. Congressman Matt Gaetz, the only official candidate, is only polling around 1.5% in the current average of the last series of polls but he might not be the only candidate to struggle to reach this percent. Former Governors Larry Hogan and Chris Christie and Congresswoman Elise Stefanik all possible candidates are all polling below the needed three percent. This requirement could be an attempt by the RNC to scare away low-polling candidates that filled the field in 2016..."

CNN/Des Moines Register Poll of Iowa Democrats

December 10th, 2022

Which of the following candidates would you support for president?

Sally Yates: 32%

Kamala Harris: 10%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8%

Joe Kennedy: 5%

Laura Kelly: 4%

Stacey Abrams: 2%

Tammy Baldwin: 2%

Gretchen Whitmer: 1%

Julian Castro: 0%

Tim Walz: 0%

Gavin Newsom: 0%

"Are the Trumps Done?"

December 21st, 2022

Vox- President Trump has long ruled out another bid for office but his children have strongly looked at pursuing the White House and Republicans could get behind another Trump according to newly realised polls. Even some enemies of President Trump have talked about having one of the president's children run for office again but the midterms sent them a clear signal; This nomination is yours. The midterms might have whipped Democrats of many strong candidates, the Trumps also had a rough night. Throughout the midterm season, they had to constantly see their favored candidates lose to establishment type politicians. A few clear examples, both Ivanka and Donald Trump Jr. endorsed Jim Renacci for Governor, a bid he lost to Mike DeWine. Both Ivanka and Donald Trump Jr. endorsed Doug Collins for Senator, a bid he lost to Kelly Loeffler. Both Ivanka and Donald Trump Jr. endorsed and campaigned for multiple congressional campaigns which almost all lost in primaries. Very few allies of the president are left in the Republican after they cleared the house in 2021.

If either of the Trump children looking at the White House makes the jump then they may have a rude awaking in store for them once they throw their hat in the ring.

[terp40hitch]

BREAKING NEWS: President Biden Annouces He Will Not Seek Reelection

Janaury 1st, 2023

CNN- "Breaking News from the White House Rose Garden, President Biden, surrounded by former President Barack Obama, First Lady Jill Biden, Vice-President Sally Yates, and chief of staff, Ron Klain, announced he will not seek reelection. President Biden was suspected not to seek another term but in recent months, former campaign manager Greg Schultz started to build out a team to be prepared if the President decided to seek reelection. The rumor that he would soon denounce the rumors that he was preparing for a presidential run was fueled by Vice-President Yates and Senator Kamala Harris openly discussing running for president and by lackluster midterm results which have harmed the ability for the President to pass progressive legislation. This is a developing story and will continue to be updated..."

Source: https://twitter.com/dougmillsnyt/status/824281627090100225

Who Will Win A Battle For The Trump Mantle in 2024

January 5th, 2023

Washington Post- "With President Biden not running, the presidency is more up for grabs for potential Republicans than ever as Democratic candidates have no clear frontrunner. Many Republicans have been trying to expand their base by pandering to the diminishing base of Trump supporters in the party that can easily rocket someone to the nomination. The former Vice-President is eyeing the Presidency is the current frontrunner and he has tried to make a base of Trump Republicans and social conservatives looking for a president to bring power back to evangelicals. Mike Pence has started to build a team of former Trump staffers including many that worked for America First Action Super PAC. Pence won't be the only Republican fighting for the Trump mantle. The former UN Ambassador, Nikki Haley, and the former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, are both looking at the White House as their next campaign and both have been trying to grow their base to include former Trump loyalists. Haley, like Pence, doesn't solely need Trump supporters since they have strong supporters in the GOP establishment cheering on their bids, both hope to grow to frontrunner by expanding past establishment support to a large base of Trump supporters.

On the other hand, candidates like Mike Pompeo and Congressman Matt Gaetz are trying to win the nomination based solely on winning Trump die-hard supporters and if they fail to appeal then both Gaetz and Pompeo could have their campaigns over before either officially start. Gaetz has already built a team of Trump supporters on his campaign staff including his communications director, Katrina Pierson, a Trump Alum from 2016 and his newest hire to his five-person team, Leandra Westbrook, who is serving as the Iowa Director and worked as an Ohio field staffer for President Trump in 2020. Gaetz still needs to prove he has staying power as it is yet to be known whether he will make the debates or not as his top average in the polls is two percent, not three percent required for the debate stage access. Debate stage access is not a fear for Haley, Pence or Pompeo who are all in double digits..."

[terp40hitch]

Who If Not Sally?

January 19th, 2023

Washington Examiner- With President Biden out of the race, all eyes in Washington are on Vice-President Sally Yates and her crucial decision. Vice-President Yates has hired President Biden campaign alums to start forming a campaign including Greg Schultz, Biden's 2020 campaign manager, Kate Bedingfield, Biden's 2020 deputy campaign manager, and Jake Braun, Biden's 2020 Iowa Director. Yates still may not make the jump to the presidential field. The Vice-President is known for hating campaigning and would almost certainly flip-flop to please many progressives if she ran in a competitive primary. Right now even Schultz told the Washington Examiner that it is a 50-50 chance right now.

Yates is the clear frontrunner but she doesn't run then the fields wide open. Multiple outlets have reported both former 2020 presidential candidates, Senator Kamala Harris and Julian Castro are both closely looking at jumping in the field and both already have connections within the first states. Still, Harris and Castro both ran faulty bids last time and many Democrats are looking to a new face such as Governor Gretchen Whitmer who survived brutal reelection or Senator Tammy Duckworth. Both Whitmer and Duckworth have started to call allies about jumping in the race after hearing about Biden's decision in late December. Whitmer and Duckworth are not the only Democrats preparing a bid, Governor Andy Beshear, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Governor Gavin Newsom have all called Raymond Buckley, the former New Hampshire Democratic Chair, for advice. Beshear has had mixed messages according to Buckley. Buckley has said than many Democrats told Beshear to run in 2028 so Democrats don't lose another governorship..."

Senator Josh Hawley Annouces Bid For President

January 27th, 2023

CBS- The first official candidate has announced their bid for President. Senator Josh Hawley with staffers and supporters behind him announced his bid for the presidency to reporters outside his campaign headquarters in Washington D.C. Hawley will officially launch his bid in a week in Jefferson City, Missouri and then go for a week on campaigning in Iowa then visit both New Hampshire and South Carolina. Senator Hawley has been a dominant force in conservative circles in Washington since he was first elected unseating Senator Claire McCaskill in 2018. Hawley was able to put many of Trump's populist policies into conservative bills.

Hawley is well-liked conservative among his colleagues, unlike past conservative senators who sought the presidency such as Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz who made many enemies before running. Hawley does enter the race with an endorsement from Governor Mike Parson and Representative Ann Wagner who both will speak at Hawley's launch rally. Hawley confirms that he will stake his bid on a good early showing in the state of Iowa which is his neighbor. Iowa has always been friendly to midwestern candidates especially their neighbors and being a social conservative is another plus for Senator Hawley in his bid for the presidency..."

Congressman Gaetz official Launches Bid Among Stories of Finicial Troubles

January 31st, 2023

Business Insider- One of the Former President closets allies in the House, Congressman Matt Gaetz, launched his exploratory committee for president three months ago with a bang as he announced his staff including many high-profile Trump staffers. Gaetz still struggling in polls even after visiting both Iowa and South Carolina twice and still not guaranteed a spot on the debate stage has officially launched his campaign for president in a rally in Florida.

The announcement comes right after Congressman Gaetz realised fundraising number that showed he only raised $250,000 in the first two months of his bid and only had $15,000 on hand. Gaetz has spent tremendous amounts on keeping high profile staffers he announced at the start of the bid and he has already opened his campaign headquarters right outside of Washington D.C. To ease donors' concerns, the campaign right before the official announcement announced that the congressman once officially in the race would invest $100,000 from his congressional account and would officially higher an experienced finical director.

Gaetz is hopping on a strong performance in Iowa and South Carolina by trying to win the Trump mantle from the current frontrunners, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence, both of whom have yet to announce..."

Team Hawley Brings in One Million In A Day

January 31st, 2023

Josh Hawley for President- "On the day of his official announcement, Senator Josh Hawley brought in an impressive one million dollars which will help pay for the first round of hires by the Senator. Senator Hawley hopes to continue to grow support nationally and in the early states which is why he will embark on a week-long tour of Iowa then invest his war chest into an early ad in Iowa and in multiple Super Tuesday states.

Along with an early investment in advertising and a million-dollar in a day haul, the Senator would also like to announce that he has hired Leslie Odom as his campaign manager. Odom has successfully run multiple bids in the midwest including former Governor Bruce Rauner in Illinois and has experience dealing with grassroots campaigns..."

Represenative President

Febuary 15th, 2023

Daily Gazette- Since George Washington, only one President has been elected from the House and none have been elected since the start of modern campaigning. Still, already one congressman has taken the leap into the presidential race and multiple others are waiting in the wings to see if they have a path to the presidency. Fueled by the dream of a Mayor Pete's situation where they can come out of nowhere and be a frontrunner, a record number of Representatives are looking at the White House as a viable option.

Elise Stefanik, Adam Kinzinger, John James, Matt Gaetz, and Will Hurd all have their eyes on the White House. Gaetz has already started to see the first problem many Representatives see when they run for president, lack of fundraising. Gaetz has yet to break seven figures which many breaks within their first days like Senator Josh Hawley and the Congressman already switched over the left of his funds in the house account which was around $116,000 which is higher than what Gaetz told the press he would take. Both Stefanik and Kinzinger both have far more in their congressional accounts so that isn't a worry but name recognition could quickly run that money up especially if they are seeking top tier staff as Gaetz did. Representatives always shoot for the White House but many end up in the Senate or in the cabinet which could be an advantage for Hurd or James who both have been looking at the Senate and the cabinet for quite some time..."

RCP Polling Averages

Febuary 25th, 2023

Republican Primary Field

Mike Pence: 19.6%

Nikki Haley: 13.2%

Marco Rubio: 10.9%

Mike Pompeo: 10.1%

Josh Hawley: 8.6%

Greg Abbott: 5.4%

Ron DeSantis: 4.7%

Rick Scott: 4.3%

Tim Scott: 3.2%

MUST BE ABOVE THIS LINE TO MAKE DEBATES

Tom Cotton: 2.8%

Rand Paul: 2.3%

Liz Cheney: 2.1%

Elise Stefanik: 1.7%

Matt Gaetz: 1.3%

Larry Hogan: 1.0%

Chris Christie: 0.7%

Will Hurd: 0.3%

Undecided: 4.7%

Democrat Primary Field

Sally Yates: 37.8%

Pete Buttigieg: 11.2%

Kamala Harris: 8.7%

Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez: 7.9%

Joe Kennedy: 5.3%

Amy Klobuchar: 4.6%

Julian Castro: 2.4%

Gavin Newsom: 2.1%

Andy Beshear: 1.6%

Gretchen Whitmer: 1.4%

Laura Kelly: 1.0%

Andrew Guomo: 0.5%

Eric Swalwell: 0.4%

Nina Turner: 0.2%

Undecided: 14.9%

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Group Of Elected Women Endorse Yates

Febuary 28th, 2023

Wall Street Journal-"A group of elected democratic women endorses Vice-President Sally Yates as she decides on her presidential bid. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Governor Laura Kelly, Congresswoman Jennifer Wexton, Former Congresswoman Betty Sutton, Former Congresswoman Abagail Spanberger and Congresswoman Valerie Plame all signed a letter endorsing the Vice-President and urging her to join the presidential field. Both Gillibrand and Kelly's names stand out as both were reportedly considering bids (or second bids) for the White House but in the letter, they say that they hope Yates will run and scare off another big field like in 2020 that hurt President Biden in the general election.

The letter also stated that the woman believes that Vice-President Yates is the best chance for a female president in their lifetimes and they are committed to doing everything they can to have her join the field. If Yates decides to join the field then the backing of Shaheen will be extremely powerful in the early state of New Hampshire and having Gillibrand endorsement so early could hurt a potential bid by Governor Andrew Cuomo who was also reportedly looking for a bid to the White House..."

Governor Beshear Will Not Run For Reelection, Annoucment Coming Next Week

Febuary 31st, 2023

Kentucky Daily- "Governor Andy Beshear has informed the Kentucky Democratic Party that he will remove his name from the ballot for this year's governor's election. Beshear also told members of the press that he hopes to see a strong field of candidates and specifically mentioned the possibility of his Litentuet Governor or his chief of staff, Rocky Adkins, running for his position. When further questioned about his decision, the Governor told members of the press that he has a rally and announcement planned for next Friday at the University of Kentucky that many believe will start his presidential campaign.

Beshear would be the first to announce a primary bid, just two months after the President announced his decision regarding reelection. His announcement comes on the heels of another red state governor removing her name from contention and endorsing the Vice-President. Beshear has reportedly already hired Haley Hager, who has worked for Cory Booker and Wendy Davis, and Brian Peters, who worked for Michael Bennet, to start working in Iowa..."

Senator Rubio Launches Bid For President

March 2nd, 2023

ABC News-Senator Marco Rubio is joining the Republican field in his second bid for the White House. Senator Rubio was a strong Trump critic in the 2016 Republican field but as he was preparing for another bid for the White House, he started to cozy up to Trump and even almost got the nomination for the Secretary of State before another potential 2024 candidate, Mike Pompeo, decided against a Senate bid. Rubio enters the field in a strong third place behind Former Vice-President Mike Pence and Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley but is hoping that an early launch can help propel his bid in the early stages.

Rubio believes that he won't make the same mistakes as last time and even if he doesn't the same amount of support, he will still be able to be a strong contender in New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada. As he enters the field, he does have the support of Representative Ross Spano, Representative Greg Steabu and Representative Joe Wilson."

RCP Polling Averages

March 5th, 2023

Republican Primary Field

Mike Pence: 17.1%

Marco Rubio: 13.9%

Nikki Haley: 12.9%

Mike Pompeo: 10.3%

Josh Hawley: 8.1%

Greg Abbott: 5.4%

Ron DeSantis: 4.1%

Rick Scott: 3.7%

MUST BE ABOVE THIS LINE TO MAKE DEBATES

Tom Cotton: 2.7%

Tim Scott: 2.5%

Rand Paul: 2.4%

Elise Stefanik: 2.2%

Liz Cheney: 1.8%

Larry Hogan: 1.0%

Matt Gaetz: 0.9%

Chris Christie: 0.8%

Will Hurd: 0.3%

Adam Kinzinger: 0.1%

Undecided: 9.8%

Democrat Primary Field

Sally Yates: 46.2%

Pete Buttigieg: 9.4%

Kamala Harris: 8.8%

Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez: 8.5%

Joe Kennedy: 4.7%

Amy Klobuchar: 4.4%

Andy Beshear: 3.2%

Julian Castro: 2.2%

Gavin Newsom: 2.0%

Gretchen Whitmer: 1.1%

Andrew Guomo: 0.2%

Eric Swalwell: 0.1%

Nina Turner: 0.1%

Undecided: 9.1%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Launches Bid For White House

March 6th, 2023

New York Post- Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has officially announced the launch of her bid in a rally in Brooklyn. Ocasio-Cortez in her announcement speech spoke about Bernie Sanders and said, "Bernie Sanders wasn't just a candidate, he was a revolution and I am proud to carry that torch on." Continue on with her speech she listed some of her plans by first attacking Joe Biden by saying, " " President Biden promise us solutions and he didn't succeed. We need a progressive leader to pass the solutions for the next generation like medicare for all and free college." Ocasio-Cortez has already gone on the negation as she was a surrogate in 2020 for some of her potential opponents like Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Ocasio-Cortez enters the field as a potential frontrunner if Vice-President Sally Yates removes her name but she could still be a strong candidate even with Yates in the race. Ocasio-Cortez has already earned the endorsement of Nina Turner, Congresswoman Rhasida Tlaib, Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley, and Senator Jeff Merkley. She is still waiting to be endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders but Ocasio-Cortez assured the press that Sanders will support her and an endorsement could be coming later..."

Liz Cheney Annouces She Will Forgo Run, Larry Hogan Launches Run

March 11th, 2023

The Daily Wire- Congresswoman Liz Cheney has announced that she will not run for president after exploring bid over past months. Cheney has announced that in 2025 she will seek the House Majority Leader position. She had visited Iowa and Nevada but had failed to gain enough support to even clear the debate stage requirements of three percent. Low polling and lack of support in Iowa and other early states pushed her out of the race as other higher profile candidates stole the spotlight.

While Cheney announced she would not seek the presidency, the former Governor of Maryland Larry Hogan announced he would be seeking the presidency. Hogan announced in a video posted to twitter and then announced a series of endorsements from Maryland Republicans including former Lt. Governor Boyd Rutherford and Congressman Andy Harris. Hogan announced he raised $750,000 within the first day of his campaign which is less than Marco Rubio and Josh Hawley who raised both over one million within the first day of their campaign..."

Andy Beshear, Josh Hawley Annouces New Staff Hires

March 13th, 2023

Iowa Starting Line- The first few candidates in the race have started to put Iowa front and center in their campaigns as Iowa is known for making or breaking dreams. Congressman Matt Gaetz was the first candidate to announce and the first candidate to have troops on the ground with Trump Alum, Leandra Westbrook serving as his Iowa Director and Kim Reynolds Alum, Nick Boeyick serving as the campaigns Iowa Deputy Director. Gaetz has announced plans to hire more aides but with continued struggles with fundraising, the congressman has pushed back the announcement of more field staffers. Senator Josh Hawley who has been a much stronger fundraiser has announced his first round of Iowa hires. Hawley has hired Former Congressman Rod Blum as his Iowa state chair and Paul Smith as his Iowa state director. Smith served as Blum's chief of staff in Congress and has a long experience working on campaigns in Iowa. Hawley also announced Lou Scataglia who currently works at Lone Conservative would serve as campus coordinator.

On the Democratic side, Governor Beshear who just finished his tour of the state with his family announced two more important hires for his Iowa team. Beshear's Iowa director is a Cory Booker alum and his two new hires also come from Booker's 2020 team. Tess Segar will be serving as his communications director in Iowa. Segar will be a key asset to the team and she will also serve as the interim national communications director before an official communications director is chosen then she will be specifically Iowa. Matthew Lee will be joining and serving as Iowa data director. Data was key to Biden's successful bid in 2020 and Lee will be a key member of Beshear's team..."

The Suburban Candidate

March 29th, 2023

Washington Post- As the 2018 and 2022 midterms prove, if Republicans want to win the House then they will need to win the suburbs which were strongly Republicans before 2016 and Trumpism. The Republican establishment is looking for a presidential candidate to win back the suburbs and keep the House in Republican hands. Multiple candidates have been labeled as candidates that are able to win back the suburbs. Mainly the candidates are young, diverse, more moderate and well-spoken. Senator Rubio, Representative Stefanik, Former Governor Larry Hogan, Former Representative Hurd, and Former UN Ambassador Haley have all been labeled as these candidates able to win back the suburbs and Republican are working behind the scenes to help these candidates win especially Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy who is hoping these candidates will be able to grow the House majority in 2024. McCarthy has gone so far to tell multiple suburban members to endorse one of those listed above or no endorsement..."

[andjey]

Great work! John Bel Edwards must jump into Democratic primary

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RCP Polling Averages

March 30th, 2023

Republican Primary Field

Mike Pence: 18.4%

Marco Rubio: 15.2%

Nikki Haley: 10.6%

Mike Pompeo: 10.1%

Josh Hawley: 7.6%

Greg Abbott: 5.1%

Rick Scott: 4.3%

Ron DeSantis: 3.9%

Tom Cotton: 3.1%

MUST BE ABOVE THIS LINE TO MAKE DEBATES

Tim Scott: 2.9%

Rand Paul: 2.4%

Elise Stefanik: 2.3%

Larry Hogan: 2.0%

Matt Gaetz: 1.7%

Chris Christie: 1.2%

Will Hurd: 0.2%

Adam Kinzinger: 0.1%

Undecided: 8.9%

Democrat Primary Field

Sally Yates: 51.0%

Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez: 10.3%

Pete Buttigieg: 9.1%

Kamala Harris: 7.9%

Joe Kennedy: 5.1%

Amy Klobuchar: 3.7%

Andy Beshear: 3.5%

Julian Castro: 2.1%

Gavin Newsom: 2.0%

Gretchen Whitmer: 1.5%

Andrew Guomo: 0.2%

Eric Swalwell: 0.1%

Undecided: 5.5%

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Two Suprise Candidates Annouce Bids For White House

April 3rd, 2023

CBS News- Two candidates within the last week have announced bids for the White House without very much talk within the beltway about their candidacies. Governor John Bel Edwards of Lousianna was able to announce his bid right outside the state capital with a crowd of around four hundred that he would seek the White House in 2024. Bel Edwards is term-limited and is far more moderate than the average candidate. Bel Edwards unlike the vast majority of possible presidential candidates for the Democratic with the clear distinction on the issue of abortion. The Governor signed the heartbeat bill which is an extremely restrictive bill that has been signed by many other Republican Governors such as Mike DeWine and Brian Kemp. That issue could be a sticking point for some of the voters in the Democratic primary who even attacked President Biden during the campaign for not supporting abortion during the third trimester. Bel Edwards is also taking an unusual path by skipping the first three states and focusing almost entirely on the South Carolina primary which is a much more moderate state than Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. The campaign has already announced that Megan Simpson will serve as South Carolina state director. Simpson is used to working for red-state Governors, being the Iowa state director for Steve Bullock in 2016.

Governor Bel Edwards wasn't the only campaign coming out of the blue, Congressman Mike Gallegher from Wisconsin announced his bid in Des Moines, Iowa. Gallagher is the youngest candidate in the Republican race and is running based on socially conservative values and his midwest roots which usually helps Iowa natives..."

Beshear Tells Aides He Will Suspend If Yates Runs

April 4th, 2023

Iowa Starting Line- Governor Andy Beshear just a month after launching her bid is starting to tell his Iowa staff, which has now grown to ten staffers, that Democrats aren't open to a new candidate while Vice-President Yate's bid is still a possibility. Beshear reportedly also told his campaign manager that if Yates does run then he would suspend his campaign and endorse Yates but when asked said that he does not fear Yates will run and if he wanted to be serious then he would have to launch early.  Beshear told campaign staff with Yates in the race then there would be no way to win endorsements or finance his campaign.

Beshear has no major endorsements, not even from his chief of staff, former Kentucky minority leader Rocky Adkins or Lt. Governor Jacqueline Coleman. Both Coleman and Adkins praised Beshear but both stopped short of endorsing Beshear. Beshear believes if Yates doesn't launch her bid then he will be able to be a viable player since the field will be open..."

Politics Week In Review

April 9th, 2023

Politico- The Week of April 9th in review:

Andy Beshear Tells Aides He Will Suspend If Yates Runs:
Governor Andy Beshear has told his Iowa staffers that his polls must likely won't change till Vice-President Sally Yates makes her decision. Beshear also has added that his fundraising won't be as high as he wished since donors are waiting till Yates makes a decision and many endorsers are waiting on the sidelines till a decision is made. The Governor also reportedly told his campaign manager and top staff that he will suspend and endorse Yates if she makes the bid for office since he wouldn't have a viable path to the White House.

RNC Loosens Restrictions For Debate:
After complaints about too strict restrictions from Former Governor Larry Hogan, Congressman Matt Gaetz and multiple media outlets including FiveThirtyEight. Instead of the three percent needed, a candidate will need two percent nationwide or two percent statewide in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. This will allow at least Former Governor Larry Hogan on the debate stage but some candidates will still struggle like Gaetz and former Governor Chris Christie who is used to having trouble of making a debate stage

DNC Announces Debates:
The Democrats will host their first debate on May 17th and all candidates that are being polled will be invited but there will be two debates once again. After the first debate, the DNC announced that it will become much more strict with only one debate till right before Iowa where the DNC will allow candidates to be invited once again that survived without the previous debates.

Marco Rubio Leads in NH, NV; Pence Leads in IA; Haley Leads In SC:
Senator Marco Rubio after a strong first month on the campaign trail is leading in two of the first four states. Rubio has a five-point lead over Nikki Haley in Nevada and holds two points in New Hampshire over Mike Pence. Mike Pence who has started to assembly his campaign team is leading by double digits in Iowa but multiple other candidates have started to pour thousands into attacking Pence in Iowa since that is his wall that hasn't been able to break. Nikki Haley who has fallen into third and nearly fourth behind Mike Pompeo, is still leading in South Carolina by double-digits over Pence and Pompeo who are both tied for second.

RCP Polling Averages

April 11th, 2023

Republican Primary Field

Mike Pence: 16.9%

Marco Rubio: 16.1%

Nikki Haley: 11.0%

Mike Pompeo: 10.5%

Josh Hawley: 7.6%

Greg Abbott: 5.2%

Rick Scott: 4.7%

Ron DeSantis: 4.0%

Tom Cotton: 2.7%

Tim Scott: 2.6%

Elise Stefanik: 2.3%

Rand Paul: 2.1%

Larry Hogan: 2.0%

MUST BE ABOVE THIS LINE TO MAKE DEBATES

Matt Gaetz: 1.6%

Chris Christie: 1.1%

Will Hurd: 0.5%

Mike Gallegher: 0.4%

Adam Kinzinger: 0.0%

Undecided: 13.9%

Democrat Primary Field

Sally Yates: 50.2%

Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez: 11.4%

Pete Buttigieg: 8.1%

Kamala Harris: 7.9%

Joe Kennedy: 5.4%

Amy Klobuchar: 3.5%

Andy Beshear: 3.5%

Gavin Newsom: 2.3%

Julian Castro: 2.1%

Gretchen Whitmer: 1.7%

John Bel Edwards: 1.3%

Andrew Guomo: 0.9%

Eric Swalwell: 0.2%

Undecided: 1.5%