Official Canada elections result thread

[Gabu]

1 Green party leading!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This raised quite the eyebrow for me when I saw it on CBC.  Which riding is it?

[Gabu]

Green Party just registered as leading in a riding for the first time on CBC

IIRC, the Marxist-Leninists were leading in a riding early in the 2004 election, so I wouldn't go predicting a win just yet.

The Grits are doing much better in Ontario than I expected. While the Tories are are doing better in Quebec.

I'm waiting for Saanich-Gulf Islands.  GO ANDREW LEWIS!

(yeah, right)

[Gabu]

Belinda Stronarch wins!!! That shocks everyone!!!

You have an odd definition of "everyone".

[Gabu]

The grits are beating expectations, correct?  Some people had them behind the Bloc.

Yes.

Well, some people's expectations.  I expected something like this; it's exactly like the last election where there was a Liberal surge on Election Day, mainly because people didn't want to admit they were voting Liberal.

[Gabu]

GO ANDREW LEWIS

YUO CAN DO IT!!!!!!!!!111

[Gabu]

(wow, the greens actually won a seat.  I'm a little taken aback.  in terms of underestimation, I got that one most wrong, since 1 divided by zero is infinity.  so I was infinitely incorrect there.  Greens are about as bizarre as they come.  and that comes from a dues-paying, meeting-attending member of the Sierra Club.  So I do think I speak from some experience.)

Where do you see that the Greens won a seat?  I see an independent leading, but no Green has lead for quite a while.

[Gabu]

That was in Prince George for around 20 minutes when only one poll was reporting.

I wonder which poll that was.

[Gabu]

yeah, IND-1.  so that's not green?  all the better.  again congrats.

"IND" is "independent".  "GRN" is Green.

[Gabu]

6 Liberals elected in BC and 3 are leading, for a current total of 9.

The Liberals had 8 BC MPs from 2004.

God, I love my province.

Gabu or Dean or someone else said that trends in British Columbia are often the exact opposite of the rest of Canada. Looks like they were right.

That was me.

[Gabu]

In the last remaining race that I care to follow intently (Saanich-Gulf Islands and Victoria are both now called), Keith Martin is currently barely ahead of Randall Garrison:

Keith Martin   LIB   6867   34.53%    
Randall Garrison   NDP   6394   32.15%    
Troy DeSouza   CON   5401   27.16%    
Mike Robinson   GRN   1109   5.58%    
Douglas Christie   WBP   88   0.44%    
David Piney   CAP   28   0.14%    

I really hope Keith Martin wins; he's by far my favorite current MP.

[Gabu]

In other news, the Marijuana Party came within razor-thin margins of picking up its first seat in Quebec.

Hochelaga

Réal Ménard   BQ   25300   55.3%    X
Vicky Harvey   LIB   7922   17.32%    
Audrey Castonguay   CON   5617   12.28%    
David-Roger Gagnon   NDP   4101   8.96%    
Rolf Bramann   GRN   2244   4.91%    
Blair T. Longley   MP   344   0.75%    
Christine Dandenault   ML   220   0.48%

GO DAD LOL

[Gabu]

For anyone curious, the two ridings in BC that the Liberals look like they might pick up are Newton-North Delta and West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country:

Newton-North Delta (180 of 194 polls reporting)

Sukh Dhaliwal   LIB   14064   33.99%    
Nancy Clegg   NDP   13338   32.24%    
Phil Eidsvik   CON   12663   30.6%    
Sunny Athwal   GRN   813   1.96%    
Rob Girn   IND   295   0.71%    
Harjit Daudharia   COM   105   0.25%    
Mike Saifie   IND   99   0.24%

2004 result:

Conservative    Gurmant Grewal    13,529    32.81%
Liberal    Sukh Dhaliwal    13,009    31.55%
New Democratic Party    Nancy Clegg    12,037    29.19%
Green    John Hague    2,535    6.19%
Communist    Nazir Rizvi    98    0.23%

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country (195 of 237 polls reporting)

Blair Wilson   LIB   18205   37.77%    
John Weston   CON   17608   36.53%    
Judith Wilson   NDP   9225   19.14%    
Silvaine Zimmermann   GRN   3052   6.33%    
Anne Jamieson   ML   114   0.24%

2004 result:

Conservative    John Reynolds    21,372    35.29%
Liberal    Blair Wilson    19,685    32.51%
New Democratic Party    Nicholas Simons    13,156    21.72%
Green    Andrea Goldsmith    5,887    9.72%
Canadian Action    Marc Bombois    321    0.53%
Marxist-Leninist    Anne Jamieson    123    0.20%

[Gabu]

It's official: BC continues its reputation as being absolutely, positively, immune to prediction.

The Conservative Party gained 1.03% in the popular vote, but lost five seats.

Meanwhile, the NDP gained 1.88% in the popular vote, and gained five seats.

And, in the outcome of the night, the Liberal Party lost 0.93% in the popular vote, but achieved a net gain of one seat, leaving BC as one of the two provinces in the entire country in which the Liberals had a net gain of seats.

I repeat: I love my province.

The runner up is Saskatchewan, in which the Liberals lost 4.81% of the popular vote but somehow managed to gain a seat.

[Gabu]

Anyway, the final results are essentially in:

Party   Elected   Vote Share
CON   124   36.26%
LIB   103   30.21%
BQ   51   10.47%
NDP   29   17.48%
IND   1   .52%
OTH   0   5.05%

Election Prediction Project came surprisingly close in their prediction, despite Lewis' dismissal of the notion that the Liberals will achieve greater than 100 seats.

[Gabu]

Because I don't really care about BC ...

You're just jealous that our province is so interesting.