Official Canada elections result thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

See, for me it's the other way round. I never had any of the sympathy for Martin that I always had for Chrétien.

Same here; despite his blatently crooked ways I always liked (and will always like) Johnny Christian.

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Ah, so they won Avalon then? Interesting...

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I must admit liking the results in Central Nova; we'll take down that ****er MacKay next election methinks... and it seems that the voters of Halifax decided that they'd rather not send Alexa back to her knitting...

I've just looked at Stoffer's numbers. Wow. Just wow...

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Neither should have ever voted Grit

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This is a rare occasion that I'm genuinely delighted to see Tories do well... the BQ were held to just 42% across the province!

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None are at all suprising; Papineau was closer than I thought it'd be though. I think you forgot Gatineau, btw

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Have you seen the Tory % in Beauce? Jesus...

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Jonquiere going is a big blow for the Bloc. Did the Tories win the most seats in Quebec City? Looking at the above they mightave done...

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Damn fraud on reservations And damn the stupid local NDP as well actually...
Alcock lost?

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Dippers took 24% across the province... up on 2004... you know I think it's time for something to be done about that bloody gerrymander (and it's so obviously one...).
If history repeats itself the NDP will win two seats in Sask next election [last time they were locked out of federal representation from Sask it was in the '60's... for two elections in a row...].
I wishful-thinking predicted Regina-Qu'Appelle as well...

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Landslide Anne just got hit by a landslide

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So the one result I were hoping for more than any others happend? YES!!!!!!!
Nunavut shockingly close as well...

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Seriously?

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Newton-N.Delta seems to have gone Liberal. Other than that... yay! Especially about North Island!

You haven't done Ontario yet

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some interesting Toronto results... Ignatieff (who I'll admit to liking *prepares to be hit by rocks*) won, that crooked piece of **** Bulte lost in Parkdale-High Park (yay!)... Chow *finally* beat Tammany (er... Tony...) Ianno, Churley failed to win Beaches-East York (seems as though gentrification hath doomed the Dippers out there). Wappel won easily. Bugger.

*looks at Earl's map*

NDP sweep Hamilton? Finally win London Fanshawe? Hey... is that *blue* I see for Glengarry-Prescott-Russell?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes.

Good Lord... you know part of that riding had had a Liberal M.P from the 19th century onward... I guess it completes the death of the Liberals in rural Eastern Ontario then. Amazing to think that seats like Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke and Stormont-Something-South Something were once Liberal strongholds... two of them even refused to budge in 1984...

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Next provincial election should be fun then

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, there's still a Last Grit Standing in ...what's it called? Kingston & The Islands?

Which doesn't count as it's a) largely urban b) a university town and c) traditionally Tory (albeit in a High Red Tory sort of way).

Odd... the NDP crossed the deposit (ie; 15%) level in a couple of rural Eastern ridings (the traditionally Tory ones rather than the old Red Belt ones).

===

Interestingly the NDP didn't do so badly in the "Saskatoon" ridings; nearly cracked 40% in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar (most blue collar riding in Saskatchewan, btw) and finished a decent second in Blackstrap (something that suprises me a lot). I suppose demographically Saskatoon is naturally *much* more Dipper than Regina...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Prediction errors -
Con gain instead of Lib hold - Ottawa - Orleans,

Another old Liberal stronghold gone then. Mind you it's completely changed demographically...

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Interesting...

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One of their worst calls IMO; balanced out by their very good call for neighbouring Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

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Eastern London is the more working class and Socialist inclined part of the city

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Yeah; a tight three way race. NDP candidate came third. Dippers did better than expected in the two Thunder Bay ridings though... came close to ending the since-Confederation rule of the Liberals in Algoma as well. Angus took 50% in Timmins-James Bay...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True
NDP won Skeena by a lot as well

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The following ministers lost...

Deputy PM Anne McLellan
Foreign Affairs Pierre Pettigrew
House Leader Tony Valeri
Canadian Heritage Liza Frulla
Northern Development Ethel Blondin-Andrew
Treasury Board President Reg Alcock
International Cooperation Aileen Carroll
Families and Caregivers Tony Ianno
Quebec Econ. Development Jacques Saada

And possibly Agriculture Minister Andy Mitchell (who lost to Milhouse by 21 votes. There will be a recount).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Desnethé - Missinippi - Churchill River, 106 votes

I smell fraud with that one; from both sides...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I trust that the 10 "ridings" in Quebec that voted Conservative were concentrated in the English-speaking Anglo-Irish parts of the province?

Nope. Only one (Pontiac; rural riding north of Ottawa) has a large Anglo population. The really big concentration is in Quebec City.

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The Liberals, the Bloc and the NDP all hate either other

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The NDP has given the Liberals support before.

Yes, but only conditionally; last time they gave genuine support was back in the early '70's.

Like I've said before, Harper has about six months of safety. After that (and only if he messes up badly) they'll be a window period in the late summer/early autumn where he might be toppleable. If not then (and because no one wants to risk another winter election methinks) he'll last into 2007 at least. O/c if things go well, he'll call a snap election at some point and try to get himself a majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But what is a little hate when you can govern an entire country? [/cynicism]

The Bloc only want to run one part of the country

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The Tories doing well in Quebec is something that only started a few weeks ago... seriously... although Charest-PC's did do fairly well there in '97 (but in a different part of Quebec). And if you go back to the '80's, Mulroney pretty much swept the province in '84 and '88.

In New Brunswick the main Franco-Tory area is Madawaska (paired with Franco-Liberal Restigouche at the moment) which is much more like Quebec than it is the rest of NB... the Acadians were always Liberal though (federally anyway. Not quite so solid provincially). Past tense is important; since 1997 the most Acadian riding in NB (Acadie-Bathurst) has been represented by a Dipper (Yvon Godin; who's just beaten a Liberal star candidate by close to 10,000 votes).

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The Tories were good (very good) at attracting soft-nationalists (the hardcore Federalist ridings in Montreal all stayed Liberal; as did the city itself. Just...) this time round.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IIRC, Al was indicating that the level was 15% not 10%, and I assumed that he was being correct.  Obviously if the level is 10% instead, it affects the results I gave there.  Give me a bit and I'll recompute based on a 10% threshold instead.

Al was most definately thinking the UK. I know very well, my candidate will be getting 50% of his money back (well most of it goes to the party, and the rest goes to the riding) and he got 13% of the vote.

Was it changed to 10% then? It was 15% for years and I'm pretty sure it still was in 2004.
Over here it's 5%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just thinking... did any member of the NDP caucus lose re-election? If not, when was the last time that happend?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The only seat the party lost was Churchill. Not sure if the incumbent was running again.

She was yes; as an Independent (resulting in the Liberals winning the seat via a vote split and the usual dirty tricks on the reservations).
So the answer is no... hmm... only one NDP incumbent lost in 1997 (the victim of round II of the Sask-a-gerrymander), some did in 1988 and in 84 (or did they? I think so but...)