Official Canada elections result thread

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I've already eaten my words. It was my first thought. And now I'll have a quick look around results round the country; I only have 90 minutes to spare.

[minionofmidas]

See, for me it's the other way round. I never had any of the sympathy for Martin that I always had for Chrétien.

Seat changes and electionprediction correctness. No time to do Onto, maybe someone can add that.

Nfld
Lib 4 (-1)
Con 3 (+1)
Avalon only change; Avalon only ep error

Nova
Lib 6
Con 3
Dip 2
No change; no error; Dippers outpolled Tories across the province.

PEI
Lib all 4
No change; no error

NB
Lib 6 (-1)
Con 3 (+1)
Dip 1 (0)
Net result as predicted; but 2 riding errors. electionprediction had Saint John switching, instead Tobique-Mactaquac did.

Québec
BQ 51 (-3)
Lib 13 (-8)
Con 10 (+10)
i 1 (+1)
Cons outpolled Grits across the province. Seat changes -
Liberals to Bloc - Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber*, Papineau, Brôme-Missiquoui, Brossard-La Prairie*, Gatineau
Liberals to Tories - Pontiac, Beauce
Bloc to i - Portneuf
Bloc to Tories - Beauport*, Charlesbourg*, Louis Hébert*, Louis St Laurent, Lévis-Bellechasse*, Lotbinière*, Mégantic-L'Erable*, Jonquière-Alma*
* represent electionprediction errors. All errors were on the side of caution, ie prediction was for no change.

Manitoba
Con 8 (+1)
Lib 3 (0)
NDP 3 (-1)
Churchill went from Dip to Lib, Winnipeg S from Lib to Con. electionprediction predicted no changes.

Saskatchewan
Con 12 (-1)
Lib 2 (+1)
Dip 0 (0)
We still outpolled the Liberals, although I think our vote share went down. electionprediction failed to spot Liberals gaining Churchill River, and falsely predicted Regina-Qu'Appelle to go Dipper.

Alberta
Con 28 (+2)
Lib 0 (-2) Yeah I know, -1, and i -1. Anyways, electionprediction was right.

Territories
Lib 2 (-1)
Dippers 1 (+1)
Con 0
Dippers took Western Arctic. No changes were predicted.

BC
I'll do this in the following format-
incumbent party - prediction - winner
Con Con Con 17: Delta - Richmond E, Fleetwood - Port Kells, Port Moody etc, S Surrey etc, Abbotsford, Chilliwack - Fraser Canyon, Langley, Pitt Meadows etc, Kamloop etc, Kelowna, Kootenay - Colville, Okanagan - Coquille, Okanagan - Shuswap, Prince George - Peace River, Cariboo - Prince George, Nanaimo - Alberni, Saanich - Gulf Islands
Con Con Lib 1: W Vancouver - Sunshine Coast
Con Dip Dip 3: New Westminster - Coquitlam, S Interior, Island N
Con Dip Lib 1: Newton - North Delta
Dip Dip Dip 4: Vancouver E, Burnaby - Douglas, Skeena, Nanaimo - Cowichan
Dip Lib Dip 1: Burnaby - New Westminster
i Dip Dip 1: Surrey N
Lib Con Lib 1: N Vancouver
Lib Dip Dip 1: Victoria
Lib Dip Lib 1: Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca
Lib Lib Lib 5: Vancouver C, Kingsway, Quadra, Vancouver S, Richmond
So that the result is
Con 17 (-5)
Dip 10 (+5)
Lib 9 (+1)
i 0 (-1)
the prediction had been
Con 19 (-3)
Dip 11 (+6)
Lib 6 (-2)
i 0 (-1)
and the number of prediction errors is 4.

[minionofmidas]

NDP sweep Hamilton? Finally win London Fanshawe? Hey... is that *blue* I see for Glengarry-Prescott-Russell?

Yes.
Liberals won a bare majority of seats, 54 to Tories' 40 to Dippers' 12.

[minionofmidas]

Yes.

Good Lord... you know part of that riding had had a Liberal M.P from the 19th century onward... I guess it completes the death of the Liberals in rural Eastern Ontario then.

No, there's still a Last Grit Standing in ...what's it called? Kingston & The Islands?

[minionofmidas]

Ontario
Grit 54. Down 20 from pre-election. 1 less than predicted, but 7 errors actually.
Tory 40. Up 17 from pre-election. 1 less than predicted, but 5 errors actually.
Dipper 12. Up 5 from pre-election. 2 more than predicted, but 4 errors actually.
i 0. Down 2 from pre-election. As predicted.

Changes -
Con (from Lib) - Ancaster etc, Barrie, Burlington, Chatham - Kent - Essex, Glengarry - Prescott - Russell, Halton, Kitchener - Conestoga, Lambton - Kent - Middlesex, Northumberland - Quinte West, Ottawa - Orleans, Ottawa West - Nepean, Parry Sound - Muskoka, Peterborough, St Catherines, Sarnia - Lambton, Simcoe N, Whitby - Oshawa
NDP (from Lib) - Hamilton E - Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mtn, Parkdale - High Park, Trinity - Spadina
NDP (from i) - London - Fanshawe
Lib (from i) - Mississauga - Erindale

Prediction errors -
Con gain instead of Lib hold - Ottawa - Orleans, Sarnia - Lambton. (Yes, that's right. They predicted Glengarry.)
NDP gain instead of Lib hold - Hamilton Mtn, Parkdale - High Park
NDP gain instead of Con gain - London - Fanshawe
Lib hold instead of Con gain - Newmarket - Aurora, Brent
Lib hold instead of NDP gain - Kenora

[minionofmidas]

279/308. 90.7%. Good night for electionprediction.

[minionofmidas]

It's sort of funny really. Last time the Dippers increased their vote share by ... like ... 50% and added a smattering of seats. Now their vote just went up a notch or two and they gained ten seats.

Glory Now, Dippers All!

[minionofmidas]

The following ministers lost...

Deputy PM Anne McLellan
Foreign Affairs Pierre Pettigrew
House Leader Tony Valeri
Canadian Heritage Liza Frulla
Northern Development Ethel Blondin-Andrew
Treasury Board President Reg Alcock
International Cooperation Aileen Carroll
Families and Caregivers Tony Ianno
Quebec Econ. Development Jacques Saada

And possibly Agriculture Minister Andy Mitchell (who lost to Milhouse by 21 votes. There will be a recount).

Yeah, that was the closest election. Also very close -
Desnethé - Missinippi - Churchill River, 106 votes
Winnipeg South, 120 votes
Glengarry - Prescott - Russell, 210 votes.

[minionofmidas]

Just thinking... did any member of the NDP caucus lose re-election?

The only seat the party lost was Churchill. Not sure if the incumbent was running again.

Earl - you said he'd be getting half his money back with 13%? That sounds as if, in Canada, the deposit-back threshold is still 15% (as it is still in India, and as it was in the UK before it was changed to 5%) but you lose only half of it if, not all of it, if you poll less.