Official Canada elections result thread

[ag]

So, looking at the latest from the globe and mail and with only one seat yet to report anything the preliminary result seems to be (won or leading - so, give or take a few)

Conservatives 123
Liberals 102
Bloc 50
NDP 31
Independent 1

An extremely weak Conservative minority government (over 10 seats less than Liberals had until now), which is likely to survive as long as it doesn't do (or fail to do) anything significant in which it is different from the grits, since grits remain the median voter: on anything in which they differ from the conservatives (or anybody else) they would have a majority (except, of course, on forming the government). Frankly, if I were Harper I'd try to get a grand coalition - or provoke a new election soon. If there isn't an election by 2007, I'd be surprised. Conservatives might well win that one outright, though, if they make the fears about them dissipate.

[ag]

One remarkable thing is that Conservatives seem to be actually losing seats in the British Columbia (on current results they will go down from 22 to 18, with grits dropping from 8 to 5 and NDP going from 5 to 12; there had been 1 independent). Their main gains are in Quebec and Ontario. Elsewhere, it is sparse (only 2 seats in Atlantic Canada, with the Libs still winning every province there). Of course, there wasn't much to gain in the Praries: they took both seats they hadn't controlled in Alberta (with the grits keeping their one seat in Saskatchewan).

[ag]

I'm getting 124/102/50/31/1 now. 

some other stats:  toronto metro - no representation of the governing party.  not good for toronto.  (just ask new yorkers how bad this sucks)
prarie areas - cpc actually doing better than last time.  (?!)

Actually, it won't be that bad on pork. Since the conservatives don't have anything like a majority and since they are on the right of Canadian political spectrum, there would be a natural majority against them on most policies. The tradeoff they'd face is to govern as Liberals, or to try to buy them (or the Bloc) off.