Iraq/Iran Megathread - Latest: U.S. to close Baghdad embassy

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sorry, I don't trust an Aussie behind me in combat here, and quite frankly your Government will not support Military actions involving Australian forces against Iran....

Not interested in taking history lessons from Australians about Vietnam....

With all due respect to your friends military service, and clearly they deserve it, I think you may have forgotten that Australia have been in nearly every single military operation alongside the USA since 1915. We are like an extra 5 states of the USA somewhere between Texas and Idaho.

Trump will play the tune of the US military. The top brass will give him his options, and maintaining strength over Iran will be a necessary component of the action they take.

Iran are going to get a black eye out of this. Otherwise, there is no deterrent to do it again.

[NOVA Green]

Just think how close we could've been to avoiding all of this. If something happens, I refuse to be drafted and I refuse to enlist for another pointless conflict. F the military complex and f Donald Trump.

I will take your spot from Australia if you are that soft.

Go ahead. I will not die in a conflict that could've been avoided with a little common sense.

The least I could do.

41,592 American Army soldiers died in the Pacific to keep Australia safe.

Another 23,160 Marines and Navy soldiers on top of that.

Guadalcanal. Iwo Jima. Okinawa. The Phillippines.

What young American men signed up for in 1942 was nothing short of incredible. And their loss was not pointless. At least, not in the mind of many of my family members. We live in a free country because of what they did.

But this is not a situation where you or I will get drafted. You can watch this pan out on CBS News live in your lounge room over the next week or so.

I will say.... THANK YOU!!!

My Grandfather fought (and survived) on the Western Front against the Nazi's and Fascists, so appreciate your roll of Honor for American Veterans that fought and died in WW II in the Asian-Pacific Front against Japanese style Fascism.... 

We appreciate the recognition for American Armed Services Forces that fought on the Eastern Front to keep Australia free, as well as throughout the region from Fascism....

This is not a song particular to the Australian experience during WW II, but rather a memory of the WW II American GIs that fought and died on both fronts for something better than the existential alternative....

Grok it, Dig it, more than happy to chill wit' it....

[Meclazine for Israel]

an unerring Knack 2 inevitably choose the worst possible option out of all those available at any given time in any given situation.

The fact that Trump said "All is Well" means we are in for a surprise and he does not want to spoil it. Trump is as cunning as a s#$%-house rat.

I would suggest that Iran will be lucky to have electricity in 30 days time.

Trump will choose the worst possible option at the worst possible moment for Iran.

Badger can smell it too.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

So, TLDR of this encounter: Trump was right

We took out a major Iranian leader, cowed them into a position of weakness, and they fired a few missiles at us in response that missed without even a single injury. Our allies have seen we are willing to stand by them. Qatar etc will now think twice before cozying up to Iran. Iran's influence has been weakened, and we emerge essentially unscathed. The proper move now is to disengage, but to keep a close watch and strike if they act up again or make further progress on their nuclear program.

[Meclazine for Israel]

This is not a song particular to the Australian experience during WW II, but rather a memory of the WW II American GIs that fought and died on both fronts for something better than the existential alternative....

Grok it, Dig it, more than happy to chill wit' it....

Thanks. At 0:"28 and 1:02, you can see his Gibson "Banner" acoustic built in 1942-1945 by women in the Gibson factory. Metal and men were in short supply in WWII, so Gibson employed women who designed a smaller body acoustic called an LG-2. It turned out to be the highest selling acoustic for Gibson for the next two decades. His is a slightly larger model, but still made between 1942-1945.

I have recently purchased the 1943 model of the Gibson LG-2 guitar. I will post a photo once I have it photographed.

[Meclazine for Israel]

quite frankly your Government will not support Military actions involving Australian forces against Iran....

Actually, we will. Trump preserved our Free Trade Agreement and took our refugees from Manus Island that we refused entry for.

We take our relationship with the USA very seriously, and providing military support when requested is a key trait of our relationship.

[But Muh Univision Focus Group]

an unerring Knack 2 inevitably choose the worst possible option out of all those available at any given time in any given situation.

The fact that Trump said "All is Well" means we are in for a surprise and he does not want to spoil it. Trump is as cunning as a s#$%-house rat.

I would suggest that Iran will be lucky to have electricity in 30 days time.

Trump will choose the worst possible option at the worst possible moment for Iran.

Badger can smell it too.

It certainly seems out of character for Trump to let this go, his ego is too big. He was willing to order direct attacks on Iran because of a drone but is going to look the other way on an attack on a military base? It doesn't add up.

[Omega21]

Iran most likely missed all barracks and soldier quarters on purpose as to allow more room for decision-making for the American side. If they killed US Personel, it would most certainly escalate into a war or at least a prolonged conflict.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1214871669459898370?s=19

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/InstaNewsAlerts/status/1214860558027182081?s=19

[dead0man]

Iran most likely missed all barracks and soldier quarters on purpose as to allow more room for decision-making for the American side. If they killed US Personel, it would most certainly escalate into a war or at least a prolonged conflict.

I've thought about this and I'm not buying it.  One would have to believe three things for that to be true:
1.that Iran has 100% pinpoint accuracy with their missiles
2.that Iranian leaders trust that accuracy 100%
3.that Iran had detailed information about the location of all barracks on the base(s) struck

what seems more likely to me is this:
1.the US military in Iraq was on super duper high alert
2.the US military in Iraq has prepared places to go if a missile attack were to take place
3.the US military in Iraq had enough warning time to get to their prepared safe places


And another point in the they didn't "miss" on purpose quiver....they fired 30 missiles (or whatever the number was).  That's a lot.  If you wanted to "send a message without hurting anybody" you fire 2 or 4.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Donald Trump never really disappoints when it comes to making statements which come across as a little... off.

Like starting a tweet with:
"All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq."

[Omega21]

Iran most likely missed all barracks and soldier quarters on purpose as to allow more room for decision-making for the American side. If they killed US Personel, it would most certainly escalate into a war or at least a prolonged conflict.

I've thought about this and I'm not buying it.  One would have to believe three things for that to be true:
1.that Iran has 100% pinpoint accuracy with their missiles
2.that Iranian leaders trust that accuracy 100%
3.that Iran had detailed information about the location of all barracks on the base(s) struck

what seems more likely to me is this:
1.the US military in Iraq was on super duper high alert
2.the US military in Iraq has prepared places to go if a missile attack were to take place
3.the US military in Iraq had enough warning time to get to their prepared safe places


And another point in the they didn't "miss" on purpose quiver....they fired 30 missiles (or whatever the number was).  That's a lot.  If you wanted to "send a message without hurting anybody" you fire 2 or 4.

Military bases are huge, and they know what's where, you can see it from satellite photos right now. I read somewhere that every single missile landed on open ground, but within the perimeters of the base.

There is no doubt the US prepared for this and knew about it the moment the rockets were airborne, but it does not make any sense whatsoever for Iran to kill a single American.

If they did so, there is literally 0 choice but to go all out on them, and then they would have to again respond even harder, etc. etc.  

Iran has a very bad Air Force, but about 10 years ago they decided to pursue Drone and Balistic technology, and they have been fairly successful. Neither the US nor its allies managed to shoot down a single of their missiles (even on already high alert), so that should tell you something about how sophisticated they are (or how bad the US AA systems are, but I doubt it).

Edit:

And if they were so inaccurate, out of the 30 you mentioned, by pure chance one would be bound to injure Americans.

Especially considering most of them actually hit the bases. If they landed somewhere 20 miles away I'd believe that, but seeing as all of them hit within the bases while not causing casualties kinda suggests they are able to target what they want, but they just want to look tough, take "revenge", and leave options open for the US to deescalate.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JZarif/status/1214736614217469953

My best hope is that this is where this affair ends, but something feels....off.  

Now, of course, I'm no military tactician or anything like that, but Iran hasn't been shy about retribution over the past few days.  

The regime is PISSED at Soulemani being taken out and these missile strikes hardly seem proportional in that context.  

Again, hoping that I'm just looking too deeply into this.  

[BigSerg]

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/01/08/iran-black-boxes-plane-crash-report/

[BigSerg]

iran is refusing to hand over the black box of the doomed Ukrainian airliner to Boeing amid an investigation into what caused the crash that killed all 176 people aboard the flight out of Tehran early Wednesday, according to a report.



https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/world/iran-refuses-give-black-box-ukrainian-plane-boeing-tehran-crash.amp

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, is it possible that Iranian air defense mistook the plane as an American retaliatory strike for their strike against military bases in Iraq that same night?

[dead0man]

So, is it possible that Iranian air defense mistook the plane as an American retaliatory strike for their strike against military bases in Iraq that same night?

that seems to be the most likely scenario at this point

[dead0man]

Military bases are huge, and they know what's where, you can see it from satellite photos right now. I read somewhere that every single missile landed on open ground, but within the perimeters of the base.

There is no doubt the US prepared for this and knew about it the moment the rockets were airborne, but it does not make any sense whatsoever for Iran to kill a single American.

If they did so, there is literally 0 choice but to go all out on them, and then they would have to again respond even harder, etc. etc. 

Iran has a very bad Air Force, but about 10 years ago they decided to pursue Drone and Balistic technology, and they have been fairly successful. Neither the US nor its allies managed to shoot down a single of their missiles (even on already high alert), so that should tell you something about how sophisticated they are (or how bad the US AA systems are, but I doubt it).

Edit:

And if they were so inaccurate, out of the 30 you mentioned, by pure chance one would be bound to injure Americans.

Especially considering most of them actually hit the bases. If they landed somewhere 20 miles away I'd believe that, but seeing as all of them hit within the bases while not causing casualties kinda suggests they are able to target what they want, but they just want to look tough, take "revenge", and leave options open for the US to deescalate.

but again, why 30 to do this?  If they just wanted to show us their capability, they could have done it with 5.  As you said, the bases are huge, easy to hit a huge base, much harder to hit a barrack that are a few hundred square meters.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

iran is refusing to hand over the black box of the doomed Ukrainian airliner to Boeing amid an investigation into what caused the crash that killed all 176 people aboard the flight out of Tehran early Wednesday, according to a report.



https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/world/iran-refuses-give-black-box-ukrainian-plane-boeing-tehran-crash.amp

I texted a friend of mine who works as a mechanical engineer at Airbus.  I was curious as to the protocol here with regards to who receives the blackbox.  This is, of course, just one person's viewpoint, but this is what he said:

 So, here in the States, it would it actually be very unusual for a blackbox to be sent directly to an aircraft manufacturer immediately following an incident.   I don't work for Boeing, of course, but I do know that they (much like us at Airbus) don't actually manufacture the blackbox.  That duty belongs to a company called Honeywell.  

While I'm suspicious as to the timing and circumstances of this disaster, the blackbox being held is not out of the ordinary.  If this had occured here in the States, the blackbox wouldn't be given to the aircraft manufacturer until after the NTSB has completed its investigation.  I'm not sure how things work in Iran or Canada or Ukraine (where the most casualties were from), but no, I don't think that this raises any red flags on its own.

[BigSerg]

iran is refusing to hand over the black box of the doomed Ukrainian airliner to Boeing amid an investigation into what caused the crash that killed all 176 people aboard the flight out of Tehran early Wednesday, according to a report.



https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/world/iran-refuses-give-black-box-ukrainian-plane-boeing-tehran-crash.amp

I texted a friend of mine who works as a mechanical engineer at Airbus.  I was curious as to the protocol here with regards to who receives the blackbox.  This is, of course, just one person's viewpoint, but this is what he said:

 So, here in the States, it would it actually be very unusual for a blackbox to be sent directly to an aircraft manufacturer immediately following an incident.   I don't work for Boeing, of course, but I do know that they (much like us at Airbus) don't actually manufacture the blackbox.  That duty belongs to a company called Honeywell.  

While I'm suspicious as to the timing and circumstances of this disaster, the blackbox being held is not out of the ordinary.  If this had occured here in the States, the blackbox wouldn't be given to the aircraft manufacturer until after the NTSB has completed its investigation.  I'm not sure how things work in Iran or Canada or Ukraine (where the most casualties were from), but no, I don't think that this raises any red flags on its own.

"We will not give the black box to the manufacturer and America," said Ali Abedzadeh.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1214892276721291264?s=19

[bilaps]

Pentagon is now leaking that Iran intentionaly missed last night. This is going to end today it seems.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Pentagon is now leaking that Iran intentionaly missed last night. This is going to end today it seems.

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1214895207021502464

IF this is the case: the exit is open, President Trump.  PLEASE take it, for the love of God.  

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Kaplinsky87/status/1214895445824229376?s=19