2020 New York Redistricting

[Non Swing Voter]

is there any reason Democrats wouldn't gerrymander next year?  It doesn't make any sense to unilaterally not do so when half of the republican states are doing so.  A big state like this can counteract some of that.

[Non Swing Voter]

Can they please gerrymander out that awful Trump sycophant Elise Stefanik.  She has to go.  Lee Zeldin too.

[Non Swing Voter]

They should do the 23-3 map for sure.

As much as most people cite "historical precedent" regarding parties out of power performing well in the midterms, much of the concrete analysis showing the GOP favored to win back the house centers around them gerrymandering all the southern states they control.  Democrats need to fight back.  Stop the insane unilateral disarmament.  If there's a way to do a 26-0 map do that.  Get rid of the non-partisan committee in California and gerrymander the hell out of that state too.

Is climate change a global crisis?  If so then act like it and prioritize that over "fair maps" that only one party does anyways.

[Non Swing Voter]

You’re right, I was misremembering how Wasserman did it and the third district does go east to Syracuse. Here’s the tweet.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1424841034316517388?s=21

I have not that much confidence in the Dems’ ability to win that NY-22.

The Buffalo district is D+8.87, and the Rochester district is D+6.75. The district in between is R+11.69. I have a hard time seeing how you could create another D-leaning district out of that without putting one or both of the other seats at real risk.

You can't while having relatively "clean" lines like you have, but if you use squiggly lines instead, there is a way ("where there's a squiggle there's a way"):

I mean, you could also draw a 26-0 map in NY if you’re willing to squiggle enough. But the state politicians also have other priorities.

Is this true?

If so, the Dems should totally do this, if for nothing else to show how absurd the lack of any rules or restraint federally on political gerrymandering is.  Imagine how ballistic Republicans would get if Dems kept their house majority because of this.  They'd suddenly care about gerrymandering.

[Non Swing Voter]

You’re right, I was misremembering how Wasserman did it and the third district does go east to Syracuse. Here’s the tweet.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1424841034316517388?s=21

I have not that much confidence in the Dems’ ability to win that NY-22.

The Buffalo district is D+8.87, and the Rochester district is D+6.75. The district in between is R+11.69. I have a hard time seeing how you could create another D-leaning district out of that without putting one or both of the other seats at real risk.

You can't while having relatively "clean" lines like you have, but if you use squiggly lines instead, there is a way ("where there's a squiggle there's a way"):

I mean, you could also draw a 26-0 map in NY if you’re willing to squiggle enough. But the state politicians also have other priorities.

Is this true?

If so, the Dems should totally do this, if for nothing else to show how absurd the lack of any rules or restraint federally on political gerrymandering is.  Imagine how ballistic Republicans would get if Dems kept their house majority because of this.  They'd suddenly care about gerrymandering.

Haha, no. Absolutely no one would allow it. Not the courts, Republicans, Democrats, the VRA, etc. And this isn't because "Oh the Dems are cowards", its because drawing a seat from NYC to Plattsburgh is ridiculous.

In all honesty, the map posted by 306 is likely the best map you can hope for from the Dems, taking out 1 LI seat, the Staten Island seat, and eliminating an R upstate seat while somewhat strengthening the marginals. It'd be a weak 22-4 map, but that's better than the current 20-7 map (going by if Biden won the seat or not).

They can't get rid of 2 upstate seats without it looking obscene?  I am not a fan of bacon strip districts (though the GOP gets away with it to cut up places like Austin from time to time).  But I'd have to think the Dems could leave maybe 1 GOP LI district and 2 upstate districts for a 23-3 map without it looking crazy. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Is it too much to ask for Elisa Stefanik to get redistricted out.

I've been asking this for the past 2 years.  She needs to go just so all other evil people know there is some form of karma.

[Non Swing Voter]

Haha, no. Absolutely no one would allow it. Not the courts, Republicans, Democrats, the VRA, etc. And this isn't because "Oh the Dems are cowards", its because drawing a seat from NYC to Plattsburgh is ridiculous.

It certainly is ridiculous, but that is not a legal argument.

There is no legal case against it that could not also be used to stop other ridiculous gerrymanders as well, such as all the districts splaying out from Austin TX to God only knows where, or the KS-01 that Republicans are apparently planning to draw that will go extend from the center of Kansas City all the way to the Colorado border.

As a side note, if Stefanik were to hypothetically get drawn out by a ridiculous district like that, IMO the best way to do it would be to draw Trump tower into her district (along with a reasonably sized chunk of neighboring territory from the middle of Manhattan). If Stefanik likes Trump so much, let her represent Trump Tower.

What about under NY state law? 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1427389029562077188

Thoughts on this map?

This map is wonderful.

[Non Swing Voter]

"Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s #NY14 would absorb some GOP parts of Westchester."

Chances she has to temper down her Bernie Bro rhetoric in that case? 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1427389029562077188
Thoughts on this map?

This map is wonderful.

You wouldn't say that if it was Republican doing the same thing. This map is horrible and should be illegal. No party should be allowed to do this.

If Republicans win back the house because Democrats choose to disarm themselves, do you think we'll ever see any meaningful redistricting reform over the next few years? Democrats seem to care about this stuff more than Republicans for the most part. This is one instance where taking a moral high ground is not worth the longer-term consequences.

You seem way too reasonable to have a blue avatar.

[Non Swing Voter]

The NY gerrymanders don't look anywhere near as ridiculous as the GOP ones in the South do.  It's a lot easier to gerrymander when a state is 2-1 Dem than 53-47 GOP I guess.  If Dems fail to gerrymander this cycle they are a lost cause and deserve to lose.

[Non Swing Voter]

A proposal so modest there will never be proposed a proposal more modest in the history of modest proposals:



2012/2016 PVI:


President 2020 Results:

Loving this gerrymander.  It looks like it's 24-2?  Plus it screws Stefanik.  Beautiful.

[Non Swing Voter]

The more I think of it I really wish the New York Dems would gerrymander out "rising star" and MAGA enthusiast Elise Stefanik.  It would be a good talking point for them when she loses.  Then the GOP would be forced to rebut it by saying she only lost because of gerrymandering, which might trigger a conversation on gerrymandering on the right.  Really, any firebrand Republican in a state with Dem control should be on the chopping block.  It's absurd that California doesn't give Dems more control over the process because of the commission there.  Doing this to McCarthy would be amazing.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wait, GOP actually submitted a plan that gerrymanders out Democrats?  That takes a lot of cajones. 

What is the net result of this?  The two sides disagree and Dem supermajority in the legislature draws an extremely gerrymandered congressional map?  (hopefully)

[Non Swing Voter]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

GOP loses 5 seats on that map right?  Wish we could get rid of Stefanik from the delegation but netting that many seats is nice.

[Non Swing Voter]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

GOP loses 5 seats on that map right?  Wish we could get rid of Stefanik from the delegation but netting that many seats is nice.

An R seat would be cut, let's call that NY-27, NY-23, NY-22, NY-1, and NY-11 are all flipped to Dems, NY-19 becomes safer for Dems, and Katko gets a harder NY-24

This seems like a no brainer.  If Dems don't do this + extreme gerrymandering in IL + MD + NM + press the commissions/courts in places like CA/VA/CO then they deserve to lose the house.

[Non Swing Voter]

Tried a map of upstate NY. This is on that weird 2012/16 Pres composite data, but overall Biden did in between Obama and Clinton in upstate NY so it probably more or less cancels out. The hardest part was probably as you got closer to the city because the political geography gets really weird, hence why district 9 has the weird little tail. There's really no reason Dems can't go 23-3 (1 R seat in LI)

GOP loses 5 seats on that map right?  Wish we could get rid of Stefanik from the delegation but netting that many seats is nice.

For what it's worth, Stefanik lives in district 7 on that map, and I'm not sure she'd be able to beat Tenney in the primary for district 6; they're fairly evenly matched in terms of territory (a lot of the district is new to both of them, and I think population-wise it's about even in terms of what comes from each of their districts), but Tenney can out-crazy her.

Interesting.  I suppose she could move if there's a rule that she has to be in the district.

I think the big issue is that Stefanik is way higher profile and the GOP (and probably Trump) would get behind her in a primary.

[Non Swing Voter]

A lot of those gerrymanders seem to screw Stefanik out of a district.  That would be so amazing on so many levels if that ends up being the map.  A power hungry loser like her getting immediately booted through redistricting would be such fresh karma.

[Non Swing Voter]

CA really needs to get rid of its commission and follow NY's lead.  If NY/IL/CA all gerrymandered aggressively it would be hard for the GOP to win the house for a very long time.