2020 New York Redistricting (user search)
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« on: June 30, 2020, 12:40:11 PM »

Is there any valid reason why NY Dems wouldn't link Syracuse with Ithaca?  I'm not really seeing this as difficult or ugly.   It actually works out nice and gives a Utica district kinda sorta similar to the current NY-22.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b248e051-4d27-44b1-9bcc-faa6287d4382

This map only really has 3 safe R seats,  although in practice Elise Stefanik would be safe anyway.
Unless you cut a seat in NYC you will need to push everyone else north, so Delgado would need Ithaca and Binghamton,rather you throw Katko against Brindisi .

I think Delgado would be fine with that.  He basically gets back Maurice Hinchey’s old district.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2020, 01:35:10 PM »



Heres my upstate NY D protection map with 25 seats
Blue = Buffalo seat same as before Likely/Safe D  although trending R moderately.
Green = Chris Collins old seat and is Titanium R now.
Purple = Rochestor seat and should be likely D. Took an arm out to Geneva just keep it relatively safe.
Red = tom reeds new seat and should be Safe R. Central NY sink.
Yellow = 3 whole counties + precints in Oswego. I think Clinton won it very narrowly as she won those 3 counties. Combines Brindisi and Katko. Tossup. Probably the toughest fight for Democrats.
Brown = Stefanik sink.
Then Blue Albany Likely/Safe D.
Turqoise is Delgado getting pushed around a bit for what I think is a Clinton seat, he should be much more shored up here with Ithaca.( tilt D without Delgado but Lean/likely with him)
Light blue = Maloney's seat(Lean D without Maloney, likely D with him)
Pink is whoever replaced Lowey. Safe D

So anyway the biggest risk is Brindisi who actually gets a much better seat but now has to face a very tough opponent.

I think something like this is actually quite likely.  I’d think if Brindisi survives 2020, he’d be happy here as he overperforms in Oneida and Katko is left with the one county he didn’t carry in 2018 (Onondaga).       
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2020, 01:41:51 PM »




I have had this may lying around for a few months, but this is what happens if you actually make an effort to protect the Dems. Doesn't actually carve up Stefanik since she moved to Saratoga county. Instead it's whomever win this year in NY22 and NY24 getting the axe. If Dems flip NY24 but lose NY22 than it's Tenney who's in a primary, if it's the opposite than it's Katko, if dems get both than it's DvD, if R's get both than Dems take their seat back and both get screwed.

Since California is my redistricting focus right now, I will not be posting followup maps.

Stefanik almost certainly gets a safe R seat given the commission.  Dems will be more than willing to allow this in exchange for protecting their incumbents.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2020, 12:06:25 PM »

a) It's not going to a court, if the commission don't draw a map that the Democrats are happy with they can just pass their own through the State Assembly and Senate
b) Of course it's possible to draw three performing Hispanic districts. It's not even that complex - just adding Corona and Elmhurst to Velazquez's district would do it, although that's using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

I believe the Dems need a two thirds majority in the State Senate to draw their own map.

They are likely to get that.  Dems only need two seats and there are two strongly Dem leaning open Republican seats in Rochester that they are favored to pick up.  There are also two other open seats (Syracuse and Buffalo) that they have at least a 50% chance of taking.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2020, 01:27:28 PM »

Anyone guessing what NY D's might do if Balter wins, that would probably cause a crapfest especially if NY loses 2 seats.

If Balter wins and Brindisi loses, it’s easy.  Just cut up Tenney’s district and give Utica to Balter.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2020, 01:29:48 PM »

Anyone guessing what NY D's might do if Balter wins, that would probably cause a crapfest especially if NY loses 2 seats.

If Balter wins and Brindisi loses, it’s easy.  Just cut up Tenney’s district and give Utica to Balter.

Well thats obvious, the question is what do D's do if both win?

They would have to do the same thing and make them run against each other.  I don’t see how there can be winnable seats for both.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2020, 04:29:19 PM »

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2020, 04:40:33 PM »

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

When has the public ever cared about gerrymandering? Did Republicans lose seats in PA, WI, and MI because they voted for gerrymanders?
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2020, 04:49:11 PM »

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

There will also be a legislative gerrymander to shore up those Democrats

Yeah especially in the state Senate.  Look for Ulster county to be united rather than split and for Rochester to be split just two ways rather than five (to help the two Dems that picked up seats).  The remaining Republican LI seats probably get packed with more Republicans in order to help incumbent Dems.  Same with Sue Serino’s seat in the Hudson Valley (likely gains Republicans from Harckham’s seat in exchange for Dems).
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2020, 08:27:58 AM »
« Edited: November 22, 2020, 08:31:16 AM by Mr.Phips »

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

There will also be a legislative gerrymander to shore up those Democrats

Yeah especially in the state Senate.  Look for Ulster county to be united rather than split and for Rochester to be split just two ways rather than five (to help the two Dems that picked up seats).  The remaining Republican LI seats probably get packed with more Republicans in order to help incumbent Dems.  Same with Sue Serino’s seat in the Hudson Valley (likely gains Republicans from Harckham’s seat in exchange for Dems).
Ironically, it seems Serino has better job security when it is Dems who have the pen in their hand, drawing the lines on the map.

Yes, Harckham and Hinchey are going to want some of her Dem areas.

It is likely that every Republican incumbent sees their seat get safer in order to make all Dem incumbents safe.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2020, 12:45:03 PM »

Here is my latest and greatest Dem gerrymander of upstate NY.



I ran the numbers on the Delgado district and I think they will want to give him more reenforcement. It’s still a Trump 2016 district.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2020, 02:25:32 PM »

3) Crack Buffalo a bit, Higgins is well entrenched and could survive a less blue district.

It seems like it's maybe possible to get two nominally-D WNY seats... I was able to do it in a way that wasn't too ugly by putting Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee in one seat, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and most of Allegany in the other. The first seat included Buffalo west of Main, the South Campus of UB, the Northtowns due east of Grand Island, Lancaster, and Alden, and the second included the remainder. The problem is that both seats average a margin of 0.20% for Dem over Rep according to the DRA's composite score. That doesn't seem safe enough, incumbency aside.

I would rather be aggressive and risk bigger losses in a bad year but be able to offset the GOP's gerrymanders coming in FL, TX, GA.

You don’t want to create a dummymander.  Dems goal should be to make their current seats safe (shoring up Delgado, SPM, and Suozzi), make the SI district Dem, and make sure it is Republican seats that get eliminated.  Buffalo and Rochester should remain compact districts that are safe Dem.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2020, 02:14:34 PM »

The Dems getting their 43 state senate seats has been obvious for two weeks now. That was what motivated me to draw the Dem gerrymander that I did for upstate NY that does not look that much like one, and should minimize the blow back, and not run too afoul of some metrics that are supposed to be hewed to, even if clever minds can circumvent them.

I still think Dems will do more to protect Delgado than your map does.  It’s still a Trump 2016 district.  They are going to want to push it so it went for Clinton in 2016.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2021, 04:10:47 PM »

Anyone else think concerns about their post-redistricting districts is the real reason that Zeldin, Reed, and even Stefanik are suddenly toying with running for Governor?  Reed is the most obviously vulnerable of the three in that it seems like a widely agreed upon given that his district will be merged with that of Chris Jacobs.  Reed has had at least one real scare against an unheralded C-lister so he probably isn’t the strongest incumbent and might well have concluded that he’d lose such a primary.

There have been maps showing that you can easily turn Andrew Gabarino and Lee Zeldin’s seats into a from two R-leaning seats into a Safe R and a D-leaning seat.  Both incumbents seem well-liked by the local Republican big-wigs, but maybe Zeldin thinks he’ll be at a disadvantage due to the Safe R district’s composition and/or that Gaberino will get more institutional support in an incumbent vs. incumbent primary.  He’s definitely acting like someone looking for a possible escape hatch.

I have seen at least one map showing that you can definitely draw Stefanik out with some creative line-drawing w/o making a dummymander, upsetting Dem incumbents, or conceding a seat elsewhere.  However, the map looks pretty ugly.  That said, Stefanik has become a high-profile Trumpist and is clearly angling for House leadership, so it could be pretty tempting to draw her out if possible.  However, NY Democrats may prefer a cleaner map that leaves the GQP with three seats to an ugly one that leaves them with only two and Stefanik has seemed less enthusiastic about potentially running for Governor than Reed or even Zeldin.

So what?  Well, this kinda makes me wonder if word is starting to come down the grapevine that NY Democrats are planning to play hardball with congressional redistricting and target folks like Zeldin and Stefanik in addition to the more obvious goners like Malliotakis.

Stefanik is most likely to get an even more Republican district that packs pretty much every Republican north of Poughkeepsie and east of Syracuse into her district.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2021, 12:02:11 PM »


Yeah my guess is they want to scare these NY D's before redistricting. Probably correct for upstate as that area is notoriously swingy and the Rochester/Buffalo/Albany seats are just about the right level of Safe. Maybe a few points too D but not that an extreme amount to spare. However with Long island one just has to mash NY01/NY02 for a lean to Likely D seat.


As long as Tonko has Albany and Schenectady county, that seat is totally safe.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2021, 08:14:00 AM »


Even if NY Dems were to draw a map similar to this, it would be incredibly stupid and hilarious if they tried to place Tenney against Stefanik where she certainly lose, instead of Katko.

Yeah this map is a dummymander, and a pretty dumb one. Splitting Buffalo is not needed, and you can make a Syracuse-Ithaca-Utica seat.

Yeah there pretty much has to be another Republican vote sink in Western New York.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2021, 06:53:49 PM »

Are those the rules for the commission, or for any districts drawn? I assume gerrymanders assume the legislature ignores the commission with a supermajority vote.


I asked the same question to myself, and they appear to be the law, that all must follow, until such time as the Constitution is changed. There was talk of that, but I think that is by the boards now due to covid, resignation and the general chaos that is out there in the Empire State.

Drawing illegal maps, or very probably illegal maps, or assuming somewhat partisan courts are the functional equivalent of Jim Jordon, or Cori Bush, or even MTG being the one person court, seems all the rage, both here and on RRH. Resistance is futile. I have basically given up. I just get attacked as a clueless dirt bag attorney just lawyering it up and sh*t posting.



The Florida redistricting amendment has these same rules but it doesn’t look like that will stop Republicans from passing a gerrymander there, does it?
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2021, 08:48:39 PM »

Here are two versions of the maps designed to minimize legal risk for a Dem gerrymander. I am fairly confident whatever map the Dems adopt will end up in court, because I don’t think they will be satisfied with the partisan numbers.

Vers 1:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/eb0e1a1d-e0c3-41c5-a4c1-96a74d233e3a

Vers 2:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/68ffaa54-5b75-4cc7-920c-75249cc4bdd7

Zoom of downstate (same for both versions:



And here is a chart that incorporates the Trump 2020 results, and the PVI’s, the difference from the existing CD figures, and seat result projections for 2022, based on the Dems losing nationally perhaps 15 House seats or so, and perhaps up to 20 seats, and at least 10 seats.

 

If anyone has any questions I will try to answer them. If not, that’s OK too. Smiley


Dems are going to want to do a little more for Delgado and no way will they make NY-17 or AOC anything near that competitive.  If anything they would run NY-16 up into Orange County to grab Republican areas (where they can’t possibly do any damage).  No reason make NY-16 and several already heavy Dem NYC districts even MORE Dem.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #18 on: September 05, 2021, 02:46:52 PM »

If anyone has any questions I will try to answer them. If not, that’s OK too. Smiley

How did you get the 2020 results, those are not on DRA I thought? Or are they?


A friend processed the data from shape files.
I wonder when DRA looks likely to add 2020 election data for NY...
The main takeaway for me personally would be Staten Island.
Why so?
If memory serves me correct, Staten Island is roughly 7% in favor of the GOP in the 2012/2016 data. I want to see how blood red southern SI got in 2020.
Aaaaah. I see. Yeah. Staten Island was R+6.83 iirc, on 2012/2016. 2016/2020 should have a bigger R+ PVI. Of course that could be calculated easily.
I think it should be in the ballpark of R+7.85 or something like that.


Oh ye of so little faith in the Torie man, heal thyself. You see, in the portion of NY-11 outside Richmond (Staten Island), the Pubs are about as popular as the Taliban. Using the 2020 results for Richmond, and then breaking that out from the total, and looking at the 2012-2016 composite election results as compared to the 2020 results, show that the numbers are plausible. In fact, they are not only plausible but almost absolutely accurate (error is introduced by slitting precincts by a de minimus amount), since the numbers tie together with the stateside totals.



One other thing of interest is that NY-14 as I drew it, moved 5 points of PVI to Trump 2020, from the 2012-2016 composite partisan numbers (a 10% change in the 2-party margin), even after I made it more Dem friendly, by adding nearly all Dem Windsor Terrace to it along with some adjacent Pub hating precincts, plus of course Coney Island. After all of that, I was still only able to get it to about a 1% Dem PVI, and thus since AOC will not be running there, it will be an open seat, and a tossup in not all that great a year for the Dems it looks like, in 2022 cycle.  The Dems won't like that.  Thus the odds are high that whatever the Dems pass is going to court. NY-17 is another potential flash point, with a member of "the squad" representing it. It should be an action packed ride, and thus my "unusually high" interest in the state.


The state Supreme Court is overwhelmingly Dem.  I highly doubt any Dem map would face any risk there.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2021, 02:59:16 PM »

I will mark you down as a member in good standing that partisan high courts on Hack City, and just laugh at enforcing provisions like districts must not be drawn to favor one party or incumbents and must be compact. I am less cynical personally. We shall see.

If Republican hack judges in North Carolina and Florida are going to allow Republicans to ignore the Fair Districts Amendment in Florida (I.e. cutting out St Pete from Pinellas county and sticking it in with Tampa) and judicial precedent in North Carolina (I.e. sticking Durham in the 1st district and cutting up Guilford county), I think the hack Dem judges in New York will have no choice but to return the favor.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,544


« Reply #20 on: September 05, 2021, 03:07:51 PM »

I will mark you down as a member in good standing that partisan high courts on Hack City, and just laugh at enforcing provisions like districts must not be drawn to favor one party or incumbents and must be compact. I am less cynical personally. We shall see.

If Republican hack judges in North Carolina and Florida are going to allow Republicans to ignore the Fair Districts Amendment in Florida (I.e. cutting out St Pete from Pinellas county and sticking it in with Tampa) and judicial precedent in North Carolina (I.e. sticking Durham in the 1st district and cutting up Guilford county), I think the hack Dem judges in New York will have no choice but to return the favor.

More proof that you are part of the club!  I will pray for you. I don't think those courts are going to be Hack City either. So many "illegal" maps being drawn, so little time. You should see some of the Pubmanders drawn on RRH. Oh my.  Terrified


Believe me, I’ve seen the 20-8 FL, 10-4 GA, and 10-4 NC maps that Krazan thinks they can draw.  If those happen, NY is going to have to fight fire by going 23-3 rather than something more reasonable like 20-6.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2021, 04:19:09 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2021, 04:23:16 PM by Mr.Phips »

Here is the Dem plan submitted to the redistricting commission. Yes, you read right, the Dem plan.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6329ef89-32ea-4de1-90ff-555145410719



If the commission fails to agree to map, the legislature can draw one with a two-thirds vote (the initiative to reduce it to 60% failed big time this last Nov 2). Otherwise, the courts draw the map, just like 10 years ago.

The Dems do have a two thirds majority with no votes to spare in the NYS Senate, but only because Simcha Felder ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder ) chose to caucus with the Dems in this session. He bounces around and has caucused with the Pubs before and represents super Pub Borough Park in Brooklyn.  Heck, he might insist that a conservative Jewish CD be drawn in Brooklyn, maybe one drawn for him, like the one below right next to the Pub seat the Dems drew for the Staten Island based CD. If nothing else, the pay is better.



To sum it up, any Dem plan of a 23-3 map assuming the NYS Supremes were hackish enough to find such a map does not “unduly favor” the Dems, is dead.


The Dems actually do have a seat to spare as the majority is 43-20 (rather than 42-21).  Fully agree that 23-3 won’t happen but 21-5 is probably something they are going to have to go for (basically this map with the SI seat being attached to something other than the South Brooklyn).  Dems know they need to make up for what’s being done to them in NC, OH, and likely Florida.  Theyll buy off Felder if they have to.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,544


« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2021, 06:20:34 PM »

Here is the Dem plan submitted to the redistricting commission. Yes, you read right, the Dem plan.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6329ef89-32ea-4de1-90ff-555145410719



If the commission fails to agree to map, the legislature can draw one with a two-thirds vote (the initiative to reduce it to 60% failed big time this last Nov 2). Otherwise, the courts draw the map, just like 10 years ago.

The Dems do have a two thirds majority with no votes to spare in the NYS Senate, but only because Simcha Felder ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder ) chose to caucus with the Dems in this session. He bounces around and has caucused with the Pubs before and represents super Pub Borough Park in Brooklyn.  Heck, he might insist that a conservative Jewish CD be drawn in Brooklyn, maybe one drawn for him, like the one below right next to the Pub seat the Dems drew for the Staten Island based CD. If nothing else, the pay is better.



To sum it up, any Dem plan of a 23-3 map assuming the NYS Supremes were hackish enough to find such a map does not “unduly favor” the Dems, is dead.


The Dems actually do have a seat to spare as the majority is 43-20 (rather than 42-21).  Fully agree that 23-3 won’t happen but 21-5 is probably something they are going to have to go for (basically this map with the SI seat being attached to something other than the South Brooklyn).  Dems know they need to make up for what’s being done to them in NC, OH, and likely Florida.  Theyll buy off Felder if they have to.

I stand corrected. My google search unearthed stale data. Thanks. But the Dems have no margin for error, if Felder is really a Pub. Just like the US Senate! The Assembly is tight too. We live in interesting times. That said, I don't understand the Dem map. Something is going on behind the curtain. And it is sad the Dems are so intent in tanking Katko, who is one of my favorite politicians, Pub or otherwise. And I like Delgado too, who seems to potentially have been thrown under the bus, by someone.

I guess that you are assuming that the NYS Supremes are hack city. Is that correct?


Let’s put it this way, I don’t believe a court made up of a majority of appointees of a governor of one party is going to overturn a gerrymander by that party.  It’s not going to happen here and it’s not going to happen in Florida.  

Wouldn’t Delgado be in the U district?  What are the 2020 presidential results on that?
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #23 on: December 08, 2021, 12:07:20 PM »

Personally I don't expect a 23-3 map; it requires a lot of messing around with NY-25 and NY-26 and a lot of ugly lines which I can't see the entire caucus agreeing to. A 22-4 map, on the other hand, is very feasible and is probably what I'd bet on, since weird lines need to be drawn in the east for good incumbent protection anyway and two flips downstate don't really disadvantage any incumbents. Here's what I hope the map might look like:






(I know more about NY than PA, but still not that much, so it's possible I've done something very wrong here. Also don't pay too much attention to the NYC lines, I attempted to keep the districts basically similar but it's very possible that I double bunked incumbents or something. All the upstate Democrats definitely live in their districts though.)

Anyways, this map was drawn to mostly minimize county and town chops, except in Long Island, where the lack of political geography makes that basically impossible. Rochester and Buffalo get their own Safe D seats in exchange for an additional R pack upstate. All blue districts are Biden+10 or more: the least blue district is Delgado's new (and substantially changed, it now goes from his home in Rhinebeck out to Binghamton) 19th at Biden+10.2. Malliotakis is probably doomed in her new Biden+13 seat that goes up to Cobble Hill, and the new Biden+11 NY-01 should be an layup in most years for the Democrats. Katko's NY-24 gets fed all of Tompkins to make the district Biden+15; if he still wins, especially with Trump doing his utmost to keep him from doing so, he's honestly earned the seat. Other districts of note are Sean Patrick Maloney's NY-18, which goes from his home in Cold Spring up to take in the city of Albany and Paul Tonko's NY-20, which takes in much of the rest of Albany County and goes up to his home in Amsterdam and all the way up to Plattsburgh. This map also holds up for 2016, although a few districts are within 3 points.

Thoughts?

I’d guess more like 21-5.  Now that NY-03 is open they are likely going to have to concede two LI seats in order to keep NY-03 and NY-04 Dem.  They will also likely need concede three upstate seats (two in western NY and one in the Adirondacks).
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,544


« Reply #24 on: December 31, 2021, 09:53:21 AM »



NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge. A judge drew their current map.

Either way, it is worth noting that a hard gerrymander is gonna be extremely difficult to pull off here. Democrats just barely have 2/3rd majority in the Senate and I'm sure some people will have parochial concerns stopping them from going all in. Worth noting before Dems on this thread get their hopes up.

Ehh, yes and no.  I think we’ll definitely get a Democratic Staten Island seat b/c most Dems don’t really care about its parochial concerns.  Long Island shouldn’t be a problem and I imagine most Long Island Dems want a Democratic house seat where they have a shot at advancing rather than getting washed away in the 2022 wave (Zeldin’s seat probably becomes Dem-leaning).  

No one from downstate is gonna care how upstate feels about being carved up and I imagine most upstate Dems are going to want House seats that give them (or their allies/patrons/etc) a shot at advancement.  

The real issue is that the ripple effects of a strong gerrymander may cause NYC/downstate folks to get cranky.  IIRC Jamaal Bowman already implied months ago that he has no intention of being a team player with this and while I doubt he has all that much pull in the legislature on his own, other NYC Dems definitely do and there’s no way he’s going to be the only problem child in the delegation with respect to redistricting.  

Also, Delgado has a top-tier A-list opponent and definitely needs to be shored up which is fine as long as it is done efficiently.
Mondaire Jones and Tonko could be problems because their seats have to get redder if we want to shore up Delgado and Maloney

Delgado may be out of luck, but Maloney can be shored up by snaking Bowman’s district up to take in problematic parts of Rockland and Orange.  That way Maloney can shed the problematic Orange precincts and Jones the problematic Rockland areas.  Maloney can take in more Dem areas of Westchester and Jones can pick up some upper Bronx precincts.
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