2020 New York Redistricting
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Author Topic: 2020 New York Redistricting  (Read 99069 times)
rhg2052
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« Reply #1475 on: May 21, 2022, 06:22:07 PM »

I assume Biaggi still runs for NY-3 even though it no longer crosses the Sound, right?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #1476 on: May 21, 2022, 06:24:11 PM »

I assume Biaggi still runs for NY-3 even though it no longer crosses the Sound, right?

She has no chance at winning a primary without Bronx/Westchester support and at Biden+8 she would likely lose in November.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1477 on: May 21, 2022, 06:31:35 PM »

I assume Biaggi still runs for NY-3 even though it no longer crosses the Sound, right?

She has no chance at winning a primary without Bronx/Westchester support and at Biden+8 she would likely lose in November.

FYI the portions of the Bronx that would be in the district are more like Long Island than Westchester.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1478 on: May 21, 2022, 07:30:38 PM »

I assume Biaggi still runs for NY-3 even though it no longer crosses the Sound, right?

She has no chance at winning a primary without Bronx/Westchester support and at Biden+8 she would likely lose in November.

FYI the portions of the Bronx that would be in the district are more like Long Island than Westchester.

Honestly if she wins the primary I rlly hope Dems lose this seat in 2022 and get someone else better in 2024. I don’t like her as she acts entitled to the district in a way and fails to realize she’s not a great fit for the district generally and would be more of a liability.
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Torie
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« Reply #1479 on: May 21, 2022, 08:02:48 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2022, 08:11:47 PM by Torie »

It is interesting that in the CD map, almost all the changes went in a Pub direction where it mattered, and perhaps not coincidentally, got the Cervas map Planscore Eff Gap rating down to almost zero along with hsi zero declination rating. All of that added 0.3 Pub seats as an expectation per Planscore.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1480 on: May 21, 2022, 08:09:59 PM »

It is interesting that in the CD map, almost all the changes went in a Pub direction and perhaps not coincidentally, got the Cervas map Planscore Eff Gap rating down to almost zero along with hsi zero declination rating.

Not necessarily. NY-11 and NY-02 def got redder while NY-01 and NY-03 got bluer. Nothing else is that significant from a partisanship standpoint. I’d say on net though this map is slightly better for Rs than the initial proposal.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1481 on: May 21, 2022, 10:29:51 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2022, 10:39:13 PM by Tintrlvr »


Yeah, that was... unexpected. I strongly doubt he'll make it to primary day once the full weight of actually local politicians (from all three wings of the party: establishment, liberal reform and left-progressive radical) comes to bear.

Also, the new map makes some of my previous analysis outdated. In particular, the redraw removed most (though not all) of the Orthodox voters in Borough Park from the seat, so the Orthodox vote is no longer going to be a significant bloc in NY-10.

On the other hand, it also significantly increased the Hispanic vote (not all that cohesive and with quite poor turnout so probably not very important) and the Asian, mainly Chinese, vote by adding Sunset Park. The Chinese vote tends to be very disciplined when there is an effective Chinese candidate in the race, which should lock up about 15-20% of the primary vote for such a candidate. In a highly fragmented race such as this one, that is probably enough to win: Not on its own, but getting 15-20% of the vote from Chinese voters means you only need maybe 5-10% of the rest of the vote to come out on top.

Yuh-Line Niou seems to be the likeliest prospective candidate to do so successfully. She is not friendly with the establishment, but that may matter little in the current local environment, and also makes her appealing to a lot of non-Chinese voters in this district, who tend to fall into the liberal reform and left-progressive radical camps more than the establishment camp. She has also recently (today) officially announced that she is running. So my guess for the ultimate Congressperson from NY-10 is now Yuh-Line Niou.

Also, she'd get a first, apparently: https://www.newsweek.com/yuh-line-niou-running-become-first-openly-autistic-member-congress-1708882
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Torie
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« Reply #1482 on: May 22, 2022, 08:46:32 AM »

Demagoguery is a bipartisan affliction.

https://jeffries.house.gov/2022/05/21/rep-jeffries-statement-on-unconstitutional-map-released-in-the-dead-of-night/
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1483 on: May 22, 2022, 09:16:54 AM »

SP Maloney needs to be fired from his job. What a moron
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1484 on: May 22, 2022, 09:22:44 AM »

SP Maloney needs to be fired from his job. What a moron

Rumors are that Jones has internals that showed him trailing so he's fine carpetbagging . And the main goal of the DCCC is to protect incumbents and if Jones wants to go south then SPM doesn't have to move north.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1485 on: May 22, 2022, 10:39:29 AM »

SP Maloney needs to be fired from his job. What a moron

Rumors are that Jones has internals that showed him trailing so he's fine carpetbagging . And the main goal of the DCCC is to protect incumbents and if Jones wants to go south then SPM doesn't have to move north.

The Intercept is the only place I've seen that and they're not a credible source. 
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Devils30
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« Reply #1486 on: May 23, 2022, 05:42:44 PM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.
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« Reply #1487 on: May 23, 2022, 05:57:10 PM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.
Hopefully she kicks his butt.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1488 on: May 23, 2022, 06:00:31 PM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.
Hopefully she kicks his butt.

Its still a Biden +10 seat and she literally said defund the police. The GOP also got a pretty good recruit as well.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #1489 on: May 23, 2022, 06:04:41 PM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.
Hopefully she kicks his butt.

Its still a Biden +10 seat and she literally said defund the police. The GOP also got a pretty good recruit as well.
We could lose this seat either way(especially given you said they have a good recruit) so I don't care. Maloney deserves to lose for his shenanigans
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leecannon
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« Reply #1490 on: May 23, 2022, 06:38:17 PM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.
Hopefully she kicks his butt.

Its still a Biden +10 seat and she literally said defund the police. The GOP also got a pretty good recruit as well.
We could lose this seat either way(especially given you said they have a good recruit) so I don't care. Maloney deserves to lose for his shenanigans

If this seat is flipping then this would be the worse election since 1894
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Devils30
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« Reply #1491 on: May 23, 2022, 10:39:11 PM »

I don't think this will be terribly close- Westchester Dems are heavily Jewish and not part of the far left wing.
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Smash255
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« Reply #1492 on: May 24, 2022, 08:47:10 AM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.
Hopefully she kicks his butt.

Its still a Biden +10 seat and she literally said defund the police. The GOP also got a pretty good recruit as well.
We could lose this seat either way(especially given you said they have a good recruit) so I don't care. Maloney deserves to lose for his shenanigans

Ehh running in the district your home is actually in, doesn't rank high on my shenanigans list.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #1493 on: May 24, 2022, 08:55:01 AM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.

Look at her campaign policy positions, the work she's done in Albany, and who she's worked for. It's more typical run of the mill CPC positions rather than full on Squad.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1494 on: May 24, 2022, 08:57:42 AM »
« Edited: May 24, 2022, 09:28:09 AM by lfromnj »

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.
Hopefully she kicks his butt.

Its still a Biden +10 seat and she literally said defund the police. The GOP also got a pretty good recruit as well.
We could lose this seat either way(especially given you said they have a good recruit) so I don't care. Maloney deserves to lose for his shenanigans

Ehh running in the district your home is actually in, doesn't rank high on my shenanigans list.



Mostly although he certainly should lose his job as the head of the DCCC. I do gotta love Biaggi attacking SPM for "carpetbagging" when she doesn't even live in the district in the first place. FWIW Jones was definetely the better candidate for this seat as he won the Orthodox areas.
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leecannon
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« Reply #1495 on: May 24, 2022, 10:35:36 AM »

Musical chairs continues
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Torie
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« Reply #1496 on: May 27, 2022, 08:24:21 AM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.
Hopefully she kicks his butt.

Its still a Biden +10 seat and she literally said defund the police. The GOP also got a pretty good recruit as well.
We could lose this seat either way(especially given you said they have a good recruit) so I don't care. Maloney deserves to lose for his shenanigans

Ehh running in the district your home is actually in, doesn't rank high on my shenanigans list.



Mostly although he certainly should lose his job as the head of the DCCC. I do gotta love Biaggi attacking SPM for "carpetbagging" when she doesn't even live in the district in the first place. FWIW Jones was definetely the better candidate for this seat as he won the Orthodox areas.

Why was Jones popular there? Did SPM crash and burn in Palm Tree?
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #1497 on: May 31, 2022, 05:41:57 PM »

Does anyone have a list of the Trump Biden numbers by district for the new map?
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #1498 on: May 31, 2022, 05:56:44 PM »

Does anyone have a list of the Trump Biden numbers by district for the new map?
NY-01: Biden + 0.0
NY-02: Trump + 1.5
NY-03: Biden + 8.5
NY-04: Biden + 14.8
NY-05: Biden + 65.2
NY-06: Biden + 30.6
NY-07: Biden + 63.1
NY-08: Biden + 54.1
NY-09: Biden + 51.8
NY-10: Biden + 72.0
NY-11: Trump + 7.2
NY-12: Biden + 72.1
NY-13: Biden + 77.7
NY-14: Biden + 57.9
NY-15: Biden + 70.4
NY-16: Biden + 44.1
NY-17: Biden + 10.1
NY-18: Biden + 8.5
NY-19: Biden + 4.7
NY-20: Biden + 19.6
NY-21: Trump + 12.6
NY-22: Biden + 7.6
NY-23: Trump + 17.7
NY-24: Trump + 17.6
NY-25: Biden + 20.2
NY-26: Biden + 23.8
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #1499 on: June 01, 2022, 04:06:46 PM »

Does anyone have a list of the Trump Biden numbers by district for the new map?
NY-01: Biden + 0.0
NY-02: Trump + 1.5
NY-03: Biden + 8.5
NY-04: Biden + 14.8
NY-05: Biden + 65.2
NY-06: Biden + 30.6
NY-07: Biden + 63.1
NY-08: Biden + 54.1
NY-09: Biden + 51.8
NY-10: Biden + 72.0
NY-11: Trump + 7.2
NY-12: Biden + 72.1
NY-13: Biden + 77.7
NY-14: Biden + 57.9
NY-15: Biden + 70.4
NY-16: Biden + 44.1
NY-17: Biden + 10.1
NY-18: Biden + 8.5
NY-19: Biden + 4.7
NY-20: Biden + 19.6
NY-21: Trump + 12.6
NY-22: Biden + 7.6
NY-23: Trump + 17.7
NY-24: Trump + 17.6
NY-25: Biden + 20.2
NY-26: Biden + 23.8

Correction - NY-01 is actually Biden+0.2. I distinctly remember it isn’t as close as AZ-06.
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