2020 New York Redistricting
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May 07, 2021, 04:56:08 PM

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Author Topic: 2020 New York Redistricting  (Read 8948 times)
Sol
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« Reply #200 on: March 09, 2021, 05:34:51 PM »

I've been playing around a bit with a fair NY 25 seat map again, and I think I prefer this to my previous effort.





link

5, 6, and 8 are majority Black. The 13th and 14th are majority Latino. The 4th and 7th are minority plurality seats (Asian and Latino, respectively), while the 15th is a white plurality but very diverse seat.

I'm not in love with upstate. I made an alternate option which has a somewhat more logical districts in Northern NY, Syracuse, and the Hudson Valley in exchange for a rather brutal split of the Albany area if that's something y'all'd prefer:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


 
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Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #201 on: March 10, 2021, 03:07:50 AM »
« Edited: March 10, 2021, 03:13:08 AM by Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil »

I've been playing around a bit with a fair NY 25 seat map again, and I think I prefer this to my previous effort.
[maps]
I really like your first map, it even qualifies as a very good non-partisan I think.
Only thing I'd really change is switch out the second Brooklyn-Queens district with a Brooklyn-Manhattan district, with the rest of Manhattan going into a Manhattan-Queens district likely bordering New Jersey.
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Sol
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« Reply #202 on: March 21, 2021, 06:42:15 PM »

How does Tom Reed retiring influence redistricting?
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Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #203 on: March 21, 2021, 07:32:19 PM »

How does Tom Reed retiring influence redistricting?
Might make your map above more plausible.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #204 on: March 21, 2021, 11:54:14 PM »

I've been playing around a bit with a fair NY 25 seat map again, and I think I prefer this to my previous effort.





link

5, 6, and 8 are majority Black. The 13th and 14th are majority Latino. The 4th and 7th are minority plurality seats (Asian and Latino, respectively), while the 15th is a white plurality but very diverse seat.

I'm not in love with upstate. I made an alternate option which has a somewhat more logical districts in Northern NY, Syracuse, and the Hudson Valley in exchange for a rather brutal split of the Albany area if that's something y'all'd prefer:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


 

Who would run in each seat?
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Sol
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« Reply #205 on: March 22, 2021, 07:09:11 AM »
« Edited: March 22, 2021, 07:41:33 AM by Sol »

My guess is:

NY-01: Zeldin
NY-02: Garbarino
NY-03: Suozzi
NY-04: Meng
NY-05: Meeks
NY-06: Jeffries
NY-07: Hard to say; could be either AOC or Velazquez. AOC's district is (unintentionally) dismantled here and she could run in several places, but this is probably the best bet for her. Velazquez could probably only run in this district, so she probably would hop over here if AOC runs elsewhere.
NY-08: Clarke
NY-09: No clue. Could elect a Republican or an ultra-conservative Democrat with close ties to the Jewish community. Maybe Dov Hikind?
NY-10: All I know is this district isn't electing Malliotakis. Brooklyn is a big enough portion of the Democratic primary electorate here that I could see them electing an insurgent left-type candidate, like Jabari Brisport who iirc is from the area.
NY-11: Carolyn Maloney. AOC could maybe run here--she would definitely have a constituency with the hipsters across the East River.
NY-12: Nadler
NY-13: Espaillat
NY-14: Torres
NY-15: Bowman. AOC's home is here but I doubt she'd want to challenge her fellow DSA-er Bowman.
NY-16: Jones
NY-17: Sean Patrick Maloney. Delgado barely lives here but he's a better fit in NY-18
NY-18: Delgado.
NY-19: Tonko (he doesn't live here anymore though)
NY-20: Stefanik
NY-21: Katko gets a district which is actually safer! Rather grim tbh. Tenney is also in this district, not that she'd have a chance of winning.
NY-22: Reed would be the obvious pick here, but since he's getting the heck out of dodge I have no idea what the bench here is. Would be a GOP seat, but Democrats could actually win in it in a 2018 type scenario, and Obama probably won it in 2012.
NY-23: Morelle.
NY-24: Jacobs.
NY-25: Higgins.

I don't draw my maps with the idea of "getting rid of" certain districts, but it seems like in practice my map deleted the previously existing NY-04, NY-07, and NY-22. It deleted one more than necessary because I made the entirely new NY-09.
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Torie
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« Reply #206 on: March 23, 2021, 09:12:09 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2021, 10:12:25 AM by Torie »

Here is my latest Dem gerrymander of upstate NY. I did this exercise because I had a suspicion about something, which I might add, was confirmed. What might the old fossil have been brooding about?

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beesley
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« Reply #207 on: March 23, 2021, 10:48:05 AM »

Here is my latest Dem gerrymander of upstate NY. I did this exercise because I had a suspicion about something, which I might add, was confirmed. What might the old fossil have been brooding about?



To my untrained eye, it looks as if you've only coloured in the city limits and slightly beyond of various places - either just the one city in the case of Rochester, Syracuse and Utica, or the wider area in the cases of Albany and maybe Buffalo, and weirdly, missing out part of the city in Rome's case. I thought at first you were trying to get each into a separate district, but I don't see that happening and it's almost impossible on a 25 seat map. Perhaps the exercise was to see how much you could add beyond the city limits while meeting a certain D%, but then surely Ithaca would be far greater. Then I thought one of the cities might vote Republican - e.g. Rome, and enough territory has been removed to make it Republican. Or simply that you suspected Ithaca was the most Democratic of all the cities. Am I close at all? To be honest I really don't know, and I don't know why I chose to answer your question.
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Torie
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« Reply #208 on: March 23, 2021, 10:53:34 AM »

Here is my latest Dem gerrymander of upstate NY. I did this exercise because I had a suspicion about something, which I might add, was confirmed. What might the old fossil have been brooding about?



To my untrained eye, it looks as if you've only coloured in the city limits and slightly beyond of various places - either just the one city in the case of Rochester, Syracuse and Utica, or the wider area in the cases of Albany and maybe Buffalo, and weirdly, missing out part of the city in Rome's case. I thought at first you were trying to get each into a separate district, but I don't see that happening and it's almost impossible on a 25 seat map. Perhaps the exercise was to see how much you could add beyond the city limits while meeting a certain D%, but then surely Ithaca would be far greater. Then I thought one of the cities might vote Republican - e.g. Rome, and enough territory has been removed to make it Republican. Or simply that you suspected Ithaca was the most Democratic of all the cities. Am I close at all? To be honest I really don't know, and I don't know why I chose to answer your question.

No, but thanks for your interest. The splotches are based on a rough inclusion of areas with high population density, to see how big the cities really are without the census hype of them going out into the hinterlands. I was wondering how big the Albany urbanized area really was, because it seems to be far less than meets the eye, as it sprawls around, but it does not take very long to get into far less densely populated areas. It turns out its about the same size as the Rochester - as I suspected! The census tells us the Albany MSA is around 900,000. Not really. The census likes to include whole counties.
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« Reply #209 on: April 27, 2021, 10:02:08 PM »

What happens to Kathleen Rice? Does her district get eliminated?
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Smash255
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« Reply #210 on: May 01, 2021, 10:25:17 PM »

What happens to Kathleen Rice? Does her district get eliminated?
Doubt it, the district that gets eliminated is likely going to be upstate.  The estimates for the state itself was off quite a bit from the actual census, so the county data obviously was as well and might be difficult to tell the impact on where until we get further numbers.
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Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #211 on: May 01, 2021, 10:26:44 PM »

What happens to Kathleen Rice? Does her district get eliminated?
Doubt it, the district that gets eliminated is likely going to be upstate.  The estimates for the state itself was off quite a bit from the actual census, so the county data obviously was as well and might be difficult to tell the impact on where until we get further numbers.
NY-23 is the obvious pick and the most natural one as well for elimination.
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« Reply #212 on: May 03, 2021, 08:27:13 PM »

What happens to Kathleen Rice? Does her district get eliminated?
Doubt it, the district that gets eliminated is likely going to be upstate.  The estimates for the state itself was off quite a bit from the actual census, so the county data obviously was as well and might be difficult to tell the impact on where until we get further numbers.
NY-23 is the obvious pick and the most natural one as well for elimination.
I was thought it'd be NY-22 since it's in the middle of the state and everything can expand into it.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #213 on: May 03, 2021, 08:33:57 PM »

What happens to Kathleen Rice? Does her district get eliminated?
Doubt it, the district that gets eliminated is likely going to be upstate.  The estimates for the state itself was off quite a bit from the actual census, so the county data obviously was as well and might be difficult to tell the impact on where until we get further numbers.
NY-23 is the obvious pick and the most natural one as well for elimination.
I was thought it'd be NY-22 since it's in the middle of the state and everything can expand into it.

I thought most of NY-23 would get combined with NY-27 to create a deep-red sink, while NY-22 would get a lot bluer by picking up Tompkins.
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« Reply #214 on: May 03, 2021, 08:35:26 PM »

What happens to Kathleen Rice? Does her district get eliminated?
Doubt it, the district that gets eliminated is likely going to be upstate.  The estimates for the state itself was off quite a bit from the actual census, so the county data obviously was as well and might be difficult to tell the impact on where until we get further numbers.
NY-23 is the obvious pick and the most natural one as well for elimination.
I was thought it'd be NY-22 since it's in the middle of the state and everything can expand into it.

I thought most of NY-23 would get combined with NY-27 to create a deep-red sink, while NY-22 would get a lot bluer by picking up Tompkins.

NY-24 would be what picks up Tompkins since it already has Syracuse.
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Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #215 on: May 03, 2021, 08:42:17 PM »

What happens to Kathleen Rice? Does her district get eliminated?
Doubt it, the district that gets eliminated is likely going to be upstate.  The estimates for the state itself was off quite a bit from the actual census, so the county data obviously was as well and might be difficult to tell the impact on where until we get further numbers.
NY-23 is the obvious pick and the most natural one as well for elimination.
I was thought it'd be NY-22 since it's in the middle of the state and everything can expand into it.
True. I actually meant NY-22 but put the wrong number in.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #216 on: May 04, 2021, 11:54:23 AM »


Yeah my guess is they want to scare these NY D's before redistricting. Probably correct for upstate as that area is notoriously swingy and the Rochester/Buffalo/Albany seats are just about the right level of Safe. Maybe a few points too D but not that an extreme amount to spare. However with Long island one just has to mash NY01/NY02 for a lean to Likely D seat.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #217 on: May 04, 2021, 12:02:11 PM »


Yeah my guess is they want to scare these NY D's before redistricting. Probably correct for upstate as that area is notoriously swingy and the Rochester/Buffalo/Albany seats are just about the right level of Safe. Maybe a few points too D but not that an extreme amount to spare. However with Long island one just has to mash NY01/NY02 for a lean to Likely D seat.


As long as Tonko has Albany and Schenectady county, that seat is totally safe.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #218 on: May 04, 2021, 10:48:01 PM »



Even if NY Dems were to draw a map similar to this, it would be incredibly stupid and hilarious if they tried to place Tenney against Stefanik where she certainly lose, instead of Katko.
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« Reply #219 on: May 04, 2021, 11:06:00 PM »


Even if NY Dems were to draw a map similar to this, it would be incredibly stupid and hilarious if they tried to place Tenney against Stefanik where she certainly lose, instead of Katko.

Yeah this map is a dummymander, and a pretty dumb one. Splitting Buffalo is not needed, and you can make a Syracuse-Ithaca-Utica seat.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #220 on: May 05, 2021, 08:14:00 AM »


Even if NY Dems were to draw a map similar to this, it would be incredibly stupid and hilarious if they tried to place Tenney against Stefanik where she certainly lose, instead of Katko.

Yeah this map is a dummymander, and a pretty dumb one. Splitting Buffalo is not needed, and you can make a Syracuse-Ithaca-Utica seat.

Yeah there pretty much has to be another Republican vote sink in Western New York.
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Anyone But Yang!
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« Reply #221 on: May 05, 2021, 09:10:34 AM »

Calling it a dummymander is a stretch, but one could probably draw a better map upstate.  There’s no reason to draw two Republican vote sinks in western NY though nor is there any real danger in splitting Buffalo, especially when you consider that Higgens is both a firmly entrenched incumbent who probably won’t retire anytime soon since he’s “only” 61 and was the single-biggest over-performer of any Democratic House candidate in 2020 (random some dude opponent or not, that’s pretty d*** impressive).
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Sol
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« Reply #222 on: May 05, 2021, 09:25:53 AM »

Wasserman is probably drawing that map with an eye to the 2014 midterms, where Louise Slaughter had an extremely close shave.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #223 on: May 05, 2021, 09:54:09 AM »

New York more than any other state really needs the exact Census numbers. The Estimates are already wildly off and the thing is there's a pretty small bottleneck at the Bronx/WestChester.

With current estimates and 26 seats D's will obviously try to protect all their NYC seats and flip NY 11 and one of NY01/NY02. Issue with current estimates though is that each seat moves a bit. By the time one reaches AOC the seat looks quite a bit different and Bowmaan's seat gets shoved out of the Bronx entirely. Then it gets really awkward with SPM/Delgado/Jones. Now obviously the estimates were off so there's a very good chance that the city grew and the first 16 districts look pretty much the same. However if the estimates were off evenly across the state then the awkwardness remains.

I was 50/50 on what NY would have earlier(25 or 26 based on estimates) but I usually drew 25 because that works so much cleaner as at that point Democrats just have to cut an NYC seat but every other incumbent would be happy in downstate. It was much more awkward to work with 26.
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« Reply #224 on: May 05, 2021, 09:54:12 AM »

Wasserman is probably drawing that map with an eye to the 2014 midterms, where Louise Slaughter had an extremely close shave.
Good point.
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