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December 01, 2020, 03:26:25 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  2020 New York Redistricting
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Author Topic: 2020 New York Redistricting  (Read 5367 times)
jimrtex
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« Reply #125 on: November 22, 2020, 02:03:12 PM »

In previous cycles the numbers had been increased from 61 to 62 and from 62 to 63 to assist Republicans in shorting up marginal seats. Very much a case of bolting the stable door after the horse has bolted, though.
False history to fit some narrative.

The New York Constitution has an odd provisions to prevent New York City and Brooklyn from coming to dominate the senate.

There are limits on the number of districts that the two could have.

The size of the senate is nominally 50, the number that existed in 1896. The constitution says that counties may not be divided except to create multiple districts within a single county.

First a quota is determined by dividing the population by 50. If a county is entitled to more than 3 senators, it must have a full ratio (e.g. 3.01; 3.5; and 3.99 all are entitled to 3 senators). If a large county gains a senator, then one is added to the total.

So for example, if Kings went from 8 to 9, they get the 9th district, but one is added to the total. This in essence is trying to maintain districts outstate, but has the effect of oversizing districts in New York and Brooklyn because they have to have a full ratio, and that ratio is based on only 50 districts.

Moreover, if a large district loses share, it does not reduce the senate size. So let's say that Kings went from 8 to 7, while Queens went from 4 to 5, Kings would lose a district, Queens would gain a district, and the state as a whole would gain a district, even though the senate had already been expanded to make room for an 8th seat for Kings.

Over time this has ratcheted the size of the senate upward from 50 to 63. The constitution also specifies the use of citizen population. This had a big impact on New York City as the pre-1920 immigrant population aged out or naturalized (in raw numbers Manhattan had its peak population in 1920).

This was all ruled unconstitutional in WMCA v Lomenzo, a companion decision to Reynolds v Sims.

New York didn't change the constitution but has just ignored parts of it. The commission was just grafted on top of it. Immediately after the decision the senate jumped from 58 to 66 members, perhaps to draw extra districts in New York City without slicing up the districts elsewhere.

It then dropped back, but has ratcheted back to 63, perhaps based on an interpretation of the determination of the size of the senate, even though they now use that size to determine the quota.

If it stays at 63 it would likely be because of some different interpretation. New York is corrupt.
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Devils30
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« Reply #126 on: November 23, 2020, 11:59:45 AM »

Dems should:
1) Split Staten Island, this would make NY-11 safe and let Rose return to Congress
2) Make NY-1 an ultra ultra red district on LI even if it looks silly, will help push NY-2 into bluer areas, give Ds another gain.
3) Crack Buffalo a bit, Higgins is well entrenched and could survive a less blue district.
4) Make Maloney, Delgado safer, give Brindisi something for a return to Congress.
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Sol
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« Reply #127 on: November 23, 2020, 12:02:21 PM »

Dems should:
1) Split Staten Island, this would make NY-11 safe and let Rose return to Congress

You can just give it lower Manhattan or Park Slope, though, especially in the latter case, it would not be guaranteed that Rose would win a primary.
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Torie
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« Reply #128 on: November 23, 2020, 12:30:31 PM »

Here is my latest and greatest Dem gerrymander of upstate NY.

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #129 on: November 23, 2020, 12:45:03 PM »

Here is my latest and greatest Dem gerrymander of upstate NY.



I ran the numbers on the Delgado district and I think they will want to give him more reenforcement. Itís still a Trump 2016 district.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #130 on: November 23, 2020, 12:57:58 PM »

3) Crack Buffalo a bit, Higgins is well entrenched and could survive a less blue district.

It seems like it's maybe possible to get two nominally-D WNY seats... I was able to do it in a way that wasn't too ugly by putting Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee in one seat, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and most of Allegany in the other. The first seat included Buffalo west of Main, the South Campus of UB, the Northtowns due east of Grand Island, Lancaster, and Alden, and the second included the remainder. The problem is that both seats average a margin of 0.20% for Dem over Rep according to the DRA's composite score. That doesn't seem safe enough, incumbency aside.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #131 on: November 23, 2020, 01:03:48 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2020, 01:54:31 PM by lfromnj »

Cracking buffalo is an absurd risk. NY 22 was actually less blue than NY 27th was red in 2016.  I think they swapped a bit but its still an extremely stupid idea as 2 buffalo districts combined would be Trump +10 in2016.  Dems should keep their nice clean Safe D seats in Buffalo/Rochester/Albany,none of them are really sinks but they form Safe D areas or atleast almost Safe .
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« Reply #132 on: November 23, 2020, 02:19:29 PM »

3) Crack Buffalo a bit, Higgins is well entrenched and could survive a less blue district.

It seems like it's maybe possible to get two nominally-D WNY seats... I was able to do it in a way that wasn't too ugly by putting Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee in one seat, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and most of Allegany in the other. The first seat included Buffalo west of Main, the South Campus of UB, the Northtowns due east of Grand Island, Lancaster, and Alden, and the second included the remainder. The problem is that both seats average a margin of 0.20% for Dem over Rep according to the DRA's composite score. That doesn't seem safe enough, incumbency aside.

I would rather be aggressive and risk bigger losses in a bad year but be able to offset the GOP's gerrymanders coming in FL, TX, GA.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #133 on: November 23, 2020, 02:25:32 PM »

3) Crack Buffalo a bit, Higgins is well entrenched and could survive a less blue district.

It seems like it's maybe possible to get two nominally-D WNY seats... I was able to do it in a way that wasn't too ugly by putting Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee in one seat, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and most of Allegany in the other. The first seat included Buffalo west of Main, the South Campus of UB, the Northtowns due east of Grand Island, Lancaster, and Alden, and the second included the remainder. The problem is that both seats average a margin of 0.20% for Dem over Rep according to the DRA's composite score. That doesn't seem safe enough, incumbency aside.

I would rather be aggressive and risk bigger losses in a bad year but be able to offset the GOP's gerrymanders coming in FL, TX, GA.

You donít want to create a dummymander.  Dems goal should be to make their current seats safe (shoring up Delgado, SPM, and Suozzi), make the SI district Dem, and make sure it is Republican seats that get eliminated.  Buffalo and Rochester should remain compact districts that are safe Dem.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #134 on: November 23, 2020, 02:29:30 PM »

3) Crack Buffalo a bit, Higgins is well entrenched and could survive a less blue district.

It seems like it's maybe possible to get two nominally-D WNY seats... I was able to do it in a way that wasn't too ugly by putting Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee in one seat, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and most of Allegany in the other. The first seat included Buffalo west of Main, the South Campus of UB, the Northtowns due east of Grand Island, Lancaster, and Alden, and the second included the remainder. The problem is that both seats average a margin of 0.20% for Dem over Rep according to the DRA's composite score. That doesn't seem safe enough, incumbency aside.

I would rather be aggressive and risk bigger losses in a bad year but be able to offset the GOP's gerrymanders coming in FL, TX, GA.

You donít want to create a dummymander.  Dems goal should be to make their current seats safe (shoring up Delgado, SPM, and Suozzi), make the SI district Dem, and make sure it is Republican seats that get eliminated.  Buffalo and Rochester should remain compact districts that are safe Dem.

Also don't forget regarding NY01/NY02 to make a swing as possible seat from those 2 if you aren't going to bacon strip Long island using NYC but yes the Buffalo/Rochester/Albany seats really shouldn't be touched with too much.
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Torie
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« Reply #135 on: November 23, 2020, 06:30:39 PM »

3) Crack Buffalo a bit, Higgins is well entrenched and could survive a less blue district.

It seems like it's maybe possible to get two nominally-D WNY seats... I was able to do it in a way that wasn't too ugly by putting Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee in one seat, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and most of Allegany in the other. The first seat included Buffalo west of Main, the South Campus of UB, the Northtowns due east of Grand Island, Lancaster, and Alden, and the second included the remainder. The problem is that both seats average a margin of 0.20% for Dem over Rep according to the DRA's composite score. That doesn't seem safe enough, incumbency aside.

Indeed. Erie County is very volatile in its voting habits.
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« Reply #136 on: November 24, 2020, 07:43:35 AM »

Since people were saying that a 26 district map was hard to do, here is my attempt at a Dem gerrymander with 26 seats (A Dem gerrymander is the likeliest scenario?)



NYC inset:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e346a9f2-e25e-4199-9718-278604bafdc2

NY-01: R+6
NY-02: D+1
NY-03: D+1
NY-04: D+4
NY-05: D+32 (46% black)
NY-06: D+23 (44% asian)
NY-07: D+37 (51% hispanic)
NY-08: D+24 (41% black)
NY-09: D+33 (47% black)
NY-10: D+33
NY-11: D+4
NY-12: D+30
NY-13: D+44 (49% hispanic)
NY-14: D+35 (49% hispanic)
NY-15: D+34 (58% hispanic)
NY-16: D+18
NY-17: D+3
NY-18: D+1
NY-19: D+4
NY-20: EVEN
NY-21: R+10
NY-22: D+8
NY-23: R+6
NY-24: D+7
NY-25: R+11
NY-26: D+8

My thoughts:

-With 26 districts one of the districts in NYC+Long Island has to be the one that gets cut I think. I suppose you could cut one of the 2 Long Island districts, though this configuration takes out Bowman instead

-If you don't cut one of the Long Island districts, it is very easy to change the 2 R districts into just 1 (admittedly the other one is still a tossup/Lean D; not Safe D), while keeping the other Dems in the area equally as safe as they are now

-For the upstate districts I basically tried to give every 2018 Dem a seat that was just as safe as the one they currently hold, except in Tonko's case (who gets a D+4 district instead of his current D+7 one)

-Beyond that, I tried to reduce the number of R sinks to the minimum possible, which seems to be 4 (3 upstate + 1 Long Island). There is also a tossup district. (and several Lean D districts)

Of course given that the newest data was the 2012-2016 composite I imagine that these numbers would be outdated and that this would be a dummymander but still.
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« Reply #137 on: November 24, 2020, 12:24:50 PM »



Looks like a Dem supermajority is imminent. Does this mean that a gerrymander is likely?
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Torie
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« Reply #138 on: November 24, 2020, 02:00:40 PM »

The Dems getting their 43 state senate seats has been obvious for two weeks now. That was what motivated me to draw the Dem gerrymander that I did for upstate NY that does not look that much like one, and should minimize the blow back, and not run too afoul of some metrics that are supposed to be hewed to, even if clever minds can circumvent them.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #139 on: November 24, 2020, 02:14:34 PM »

The Dems getting their 43 state senate seats has been obvious for two weeks now. That was what motivated me to draw the Dem gerrymander that I did for upstate NY that does not look that much like one, and should minimize the blow back, and not run too afoul of some metrics that are supposed to be hewed to, even if clever minds can circumvent them.

I still think Dems will do more to protect Delgado than your map does.  Itís still a Trump 2016 district.  They are going to want to push it so it went for Clinton in 2016.
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« Reply #140 on: November 25, 2020, 02:55:30 PM »

Here is a properly aggressive 25 district NY Democratic gerrymander. It has 23 Dem seats and only 2 Republican seats. If Republicans are really going to be doing things like gerrymandering TN-05 into oblivion, then Dems should do things like this in states like New York. Although what they really should do is a 25-0 map (spaghetti strings from Manhattan to western New York). Maybe if they went 25-0 with ridiculous spaghetti string districts, then the partisan GOP Supreme Court might finally do something to stop partisan gerrymandering.

Anyway, here is my 23-2 map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cd0c6d55-3f16-48e5-abd3-714345b3d5c9


NY-01: D+4.24, 55.6% D composite, 58.4% Obama 2008
NY-02: D+9.95, 61.5% D composite, 62.6% Obama 2008
NY-03: D+4.92, 56.4% D composite, 58.1% Obama 2008
NY-04: D+8.68, 60.2% D composite, 57.8% Obama 2008
NY-05: D+12.26, 63.8% D composite, 60.7% Obama 2008 (44% Asian plurality)
NY-06: D+13.08, 64.5% D composite, 66.0% Obama 2008 (42% Black plurality)
NY-07: D+32.86, 84.3% D composite, 79.9% Obama 2008 (36% Hispanic plurality)
NY-08: D+24.35, 75.8% D composite, 73.7% Obama 2008 (44% Black plurality)
NY-09: D+28.61, 80.1% D composite, 77.9% Obama 2008 (44% Black plurality)
NY-10: D+33.85, 85.6% D composite, 84.3% Obama 2008
NY-11: D+12.42, 63.8% D composite, 63.3% Obama 2008
NY-12: D+26.23, 77.9% D composite, 73.4% Obama 2008
NY-13: D+41.46, 93.0% D composite, 90.9% Obama 2008 (54% Hispanic majority)
NY-14: D+11.59, 63.1% D composite, 63.3% Obama 2008 (36% Hispanic, 46% White)
NY-15: D+39.99, 91.5% D composite, 62.6% Obama 2008 (63% Hispanic)
NY-16: D+10.52, 62.1% D composite, 60.5% Obama 2008
NY-17: D+7.53, 59.1% D composite, 59.1% Obama 2008
NY-18: D+5.27, 56.8% D composite, 57.8% Obama 2008
NY-19: D+4.4, 55.9% D composite, 57.3% Obama 2008
NY-20: D+4.8, 56.3% D composite, 56.5% Obama 2008
NY-21: R+13.15, 38.3% D composite, 43.2% Obama 2008
NY-22: D+4.03, 55.6% D composite, 56.2% Obama 2008
NY-23: R+13.64, 37.9% D composite, 43.2% Obama 2008
NY-24: D+5.31, 56.9% D composite, 58.7% Obama 2008
NY-25: D+6.59, 58.1% D composite, 57.9% Obama 2008


Upstate:



If you want to do 23-2, it seems like you have to do something a bit weird upstate to make it work, because the clusters of Dems in the middle of upstate don't quite work out to a whole number of sufficiently Dem districts. The key thing done to solve that issue in this map is that Syracuse is combined with the more Dem parts of the North Country. Onodonga County is cut with the north part of it (including the whole city of Syracuse and the large share of the population) going in NY-24 (D+5.31), and the southern suburbs go into NY-22 and contribute to making it pretty strongly Dem-leaning (D+4.03). It is possible Katko might try to run in NY-22, but if so Brindisi should be favored due to the partisanship of the district, and it should include more of Brindisi's territory. Or possibly Katko might even try to run in NY-21 (presumably along with Stefanik and who knows who else), and who knows who comes out on top in that Republican primary.

There might be some better alternatives to how I did NY-24. Maybe NY-22 could be drawn up to the Vermont-Canada borers directly instead (but that seems hard because of how red the rural areas are that you have to go through). The other alternative that might be better would be to bring back the Buffalo-Rochester earmuffs. Buffalo alone is not enough to support 2 Dem districts, but it could be enough for 1 district and part of another one, if the other part of the second district came from Rochester. Then the remainder of Rochester/Monroe County could be combined with the Dem areas in NY-22/24. That might make it possible for NY-21/22 to have more normal-looking shapes. In that case you would need to draw either NY-20 or NY-19 up to the Canadian/Vermont border though to not waste Dem votes and avoid having to concede a 3rd upstate GOP district. So if you are willing to split Buffalo/Rochester and bring the main Buffalo district down to maybe D+5-6 or so, that might make things more compact elsewhere.

Speaking of Buffalo, NY-02 is moved from Long Island to Buffalo solely in order to keep the numbers of the other districts linked to their current incumbents. So "NY-02" is basically the current NY-26.



NYC/LI:



There are 0 Republican seats downstate. Long Island is exquisitely carved up to make everything be at least D+4. NY-01 is D+4.24, NY-03 is D+4.92, and there is nothing else between that and NY-04, which is D+8.68. So worst case, maybe the Republicans somehow manage to win both NY-01 and NY-03, in which case they get... exactly the same number of seats they have now (minus the Staten Island district). Also, NY-01 is 57% White and NY-03 is 59% white, so Republicans are probably not going to win either of those without doing at least relatively well with BOTH non-white voters and college educated whites. It would be useful to see how Trump did in 2016/2020 though.

NY-04 in particular is messier than it really needs to be while being safe Dem, but the reason for that was just trying to make NY-05 have as high of an Asian population as possible, which led to some awkward precinct choices. If not for that, NY-05/04/14 could be made at least somewhat neater.

AOC gets in on the Long Island cracking action with NY-14. She shouldn't complain. It is definitely better than having her district be eliminated, and in a way it could be a good thing for her. If she ever wants to go anywhere other than the House, it would be good practice for her to figure out how to make her messaging appeal to voters in areas other than urban heavily Dem base areas. Even so, she is in no real danger of losing a D+11.59 majority minority district which also includes the heavily Dem white progressive areas of Astoria. Similarly, Jamaal Bowman gets NY-16 to go a little bit more upstate in order to help out Sean Maloney, but he should also be in no real danger of losing and it is a lot better for him than having his district be eliminated.


All the Dem incumbents which are in remotely competitive districts get improvements in their PVIs, with the one exception of Tonko (NY-20), but that is still D+4.8, which ought to still be safe given that it is based in Albany/Schenectady. Yes, it is possible that the Republicans might on occasion in a strong Republican year win one or 2 of these districts that are about D+4/D+5, but if so in that case Dems will already have lost the House elsewhere in other tipping point districts in other states, and Dems should be able to win them back right away as soon as a Dem year or neutral year comes along. But overall the districts here are generally as safe or safer than those on most maps with 3 or 4 GOP seats. The main thing that could go wrong are further GOP trends in rural upstate areas, but upstate seems to have snapped back to Biden fairly well, and in addition the Dem upstate districts are mostly not that reliant on truly rural votes (but are more reliant on votes in towns and cities which are less likely to trend hard GOP).
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« Reply #141 on: November 25, 2020, 03:42:06 PM »

Gotta say, that is a very innovative map. Among other things, I've never seen a CD running from Syracuse to Vermont.
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« Reply #142 on: November 25, 2020, 11:34:38 PM »

Love this map, I would get extremely aggressive as this can offset a lot of what the GOP does. I probably would make NY-1 a GOP sink though, seems a bit risky for 2 and 3 if it isn't in a bad year.
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« Reply #143 on: November 26, 2020, 05:13:43 PM »

Can they please gerrymander out that awful Trump sycophant Elise Stefanik.  She has to go.  Lee Zeldin too.
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« Reply #144 on: November 26, 2020, 05:16:21 PM »

Can they please gerrymander out that awful Trump sycophant Elise Stefanik.  She has to go.  Lee Zeldin too.

Zeldin's base on Long Island is too strong. Way too strong.
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« Reply #145 on: November 26, 2020, 05:18:52 PM »

Can they please gerrymander out that awful Trump sycophant Elise Stefanik.  She has to go.  Lee Zeldin too.

Zeldin's base on Long Island is too strong. Way too strong.
Not if you attach it to enough of Queens.
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« Reply #146 on: November 28, 2020, 02:41:40 AM »

I tried re-doing upstate with un-packing Buffalo. It seems like doing that causes some quite beneficial changes for Democrats in terms of partisanship, via a series of chain reactions. It enables more efficient packing of Republican votes overall, and also a better distribution of Democratic votes between the upstate districts, so they are basically all safer and all have a minimum PVI of at least D+5.5 to D+6 or so.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/64b7c0e7-b1a0-4e58-99ee-49feee3bcaf1

I didn't change the downstate districts change, and the upstate or partially upstate district PVIs are now:

NY-02 (moved to be the Buffalo district): D+5.54
NY-16: D+10.39
NY-17: D+7.51
NY-18: D+7.76
NY-19: D+6.1
NY-20: D+6.69
NY-21: R+13.1
NY-22: D+5.82
NY-23: R+16.05
NY-24: D+5.86
NY-25: D+5.47

The thing that sets this all in motion is un-packing the Buffalo district, and adding back a Buffalo-Rochester earmuffs district (NY-25). Using some of the extra Buffalo Dem votes on NY-25 means there are some left over Rochester Dem votes that NY-24 can take (and indirectly pass on to NY-22). It also means that NY-24 doesn't need to go up into the North Country to the Vermont border in order for both NY-22 and NY-24 to be made strongly Dem.

As a result, both NY-22 and NY-24 are stronger Dem, up to nearly D+6 each. That ought to be pretty much unwinnable even for Katko, and in addition Katko's Syracuse base is split up between two districts, both of which have a lot of other Dem territory which is new to him (mainly either in Rochester or in Ithaca/Binghampton). So I would be quite a bit more confident that this map would actually knock out Katko and end up with the advertised 23 D - 2 R result. I think this map would most likely end up producing a Katko-Stefanik primary in NY-21, because Stefanik would not have a realistic shot of winning NY-20, and Katko would not have a realistic shot in NY-24 or NY-22.

Since NY-24 doesn't need to take the Dem (or at least competitive) North Country areas which are near Vermont, NY-20 takes them instead. This also means that NY-18 can pull back from a lot of the heavily R rural areas that it took on in the previous version, which means it can take Republican or competititive territory from NY-19 (and indirectly from NY-20). That allows BOTH NY-19 and NY-20 to become more Democratic, even while NY-18 also becomes more Democratic.

So this is definitely a significant improvement for Dems in terms of the partisanship of the districts. It would be necessary to check against 2016/2018/2020 results, but I would think this should be a pretty sturdy gerrymander. None of the districts are really that dependent on an unreasonable number of rural Dem votes, so as long as Dems maintain reasonable support levels in the cities/suburbs in upstate, these districts ought to hold even if rural areas trend further Republican. The bulk of the heavily R rural areas are packed into NY-21 and NY-23. I would think the only way these districts would fall is in an extreme Republican wave year where the GOP already picked up probably at least 250 seats in other states.

In terms of the aesthetics, it is less clear if it is an improvement. The main aesthetic improvement is NY-21 is definitely more compact (though still not really compact) since it no longer wraps the entire way around NY-22. On the other hand, NY-02 and NY-25 are less compact since they are no longer simple pure compact Buffalo/Rochester districts.

NY-24 and NY-22 in particular have a bit less good PVIs than is possible in order to make them at least minimally compact. Most of these districts can be made more Democratic by making them a bit less impact, or alternatively can be made a bit more compact without much loss of PVI (some of the tentacles only improve the partisanship very slightly, so if you carefully tweak it you can end up with pretty much the same effects and maybe make it look a bit better).
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« Reply #147 on: November 29, 2020, 08:22:01 PM »

Is New York still likely to have 26 districts?
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« Reply #148 on: November 29, 2020, 08:25:26 PM »

Can they please gerrymander out that awful Trump sycophant Elise Stefanik.  She has to go.  Lee Zeldin too.

Zeldin's base on Long Island is too strong. Way too strong.
Not if you attach it to enough of Queens.

Zeldin could do well in Douglaston, Little Neck, where they are a lot of Asians and white ethnics.
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