2020 New York Redistricting
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Author Topic: 2020 New York Redistricting  (Read 99026 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #75 on: June 30, 2020, 01:37:11 PM »




I have had this may lying around for a few months, but this is what happens if you actually make an effort to protect the Dems. Doesn't actually carve up Stefanik since she moved to Saratoga county. Instead it's whomever win this year in NY22 and NY24 getting the axe. If Dems flip NY24 but lose NY22 than it's Tenney who's in a primary, if it's the opposite than it's Katko, if dems get both than it's DvD, if R's get both than Dems take their seat back and both get screwed.

Since California is my redistricting focus right now, I will not be posting followup maps.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #76 on: June 30, 2020, 01:40:56 PM »



Fixed the Oswego arm which is super ugly to just a normal county/town split of Auburn.

Clinton won the 3 whole counties by 2500 votes so she probably won the district by 3k votes? About a 1 point win so still very narrow.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #77 on: June 30, 2020, 01:41:51 PM »




I have had this may lying around for a few months, but this is what happens if you actually make an effort to protect the Dems. Doesn't actually carve up Stefanik since she moved to Saratoga county. Instead it's whomever win this year in NY22 and NY24 getting the axe. If Dems flip NY24 but lose NY22 than it's Tenney who's in a primary, if it's the opposite than it's Katko, if dems get both than it's DvD, if R's get both than Dems take their seat back and both get screwed.

Since California is my redistricting focus right now, I will not be posting followup maps.

Stefanik almost certainly gets a safe R seat given the commission.  Dems will be more than willing to allow this in exchange for protecting their incumbents.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #78 on: June 30, 2020, 01:46:14 PM »
« Edited: June 30, 2020, 01:53:03 PM by Oryxslayer »




I have had this may lying around for a few months, but this is what happens if you actually make an effort to protect the Dems. Doesn't actually carve up Stefanik since she moved to Saratoga county. Instead it's whomever win this year in NY22 and NY24 getting the axe. If Dems flip NY24 but lose NY22 than it's Tenney who's in a primary, if it's the opposite than it's Katko, if dems get both than it's DvD, if R's get both than Dems take their seat back and both get screwed.

Since California is my redistricting focus right now, I will not be posting followup maps.

Stefanik almost certainly gets a safe R seat given the commission.  Dems will be more than willing to allow this in exchange for protecting their incumbents.

Stefanik is in Pink, as are the majority of her GOP primary voters from the present NY21. So yes, she is given a safe seat to protect the dems.
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Torie
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« Reply #79 on: July 06, 2020, 07:16:20 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2020, 06:41:02 AM by Torie »



This is the downstate map that completes my upstate map above.  The erosity action between NY-12 and NY-06 is an attempt to maximize the Asian vote in NY-06. In a way the downstate map is somewhat of a somewhat wasted effort since the lines in NYC and Westchester are driven largely by race, with compactness and not splitting borough lines a consideration, but not dominant. And there are no projections for the precinct ethnicity data, leaving us with the  2010 precinct data, which are pretty stale.

As it is, with the stale numbers an Hispanic CD bit the dust as the size of the CD's expanded. Indeed, just to protect the second Hispanic CD, NY-13 needed to weave into Spanish Harlem to make it a comfortably performing Hispanic CD. NY-07 and NY-09 needed to split up the white areas in Brooklyn near Manhattan in order to make both CD's performing Black CD's, with a little help from NY-11 as its expanded size reached north right up to the gates of Battery Park to such up some more precincts where Blacks are very thin on the ground.

I suspect even if one followed my rules and sensibilities, the lines will change a fair bit once we get the racial and Hispanic data by precinct sometime over the rainbow in 2021.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #80 on: July 06, 2020, 09:26:53 PM »

The Brooklyn part of that map is kind of crazy-pants. No way that's anything close to what ends up being drawn. They're not going to abolish a Hispanic district for the specific purpose of creating a new white district. That NY-08 is dead on arrival.

The rest of the map seems somewhat reasonable, but they would probably send NY-04 into the Bronx and maybe even all the way into Westchester in order to take more Asian areas into NY-06.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #81 on: July 06, 2020, 10:46:43 PM »

If New York loses only one district, I think NY-27 (Chris Jacobs) will be the district eliminated.

If New York loses two districts, I'd expect three targets. Jacobs and Jamal Bowman would probably get their seats eliminated, with AOC also being drawn out of her district (though she'd still have a district to represent, if she wants it, it just likely would be territory that might not be winnable for her).

I don't think the legislature would bother with Bowman or AOC if New York only loses one seat (though they might target AOC in the sense that they'll draw her out of her district, but still give her a seat to run in, that's unwinnable for her)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #82 on: July 06, 2020, 10:50:59 PM »

If New York loses only one district, I think NY-27 (Chris Jacobs) will be the district eliminated.

If New York loses two districts, I'd expect three targets. Jacobs and Jamal Bowman would probably get their seats eliminated, with AOC also being drawn out of her district (though she'd still have a district to represent, if she wants it, it just likely would be territory that might not be winnable for her).

I don't think the legislature would bother with Bowman or AOC if New York only loses one seat (though they might target AOC in the sense that they'll draw her out of her district, but still give her a seat to run in, that's unwinnable for her)

How exactly do you propose cutting up NY 27 without  giving the most red territory in NY to either  Buffalo or Rochester?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #83 on: July 06, 2020, 10:58:00 PM »

If New York loses only one district, I think NY-27 (Chris Jacobs) will be the district eliminated.

If New York loses two districts, I'd expect three targets. Jacobs and Jamal Bowman would probably get their seats eliminated, with AOC also being drawn out of her district (though she'd still have a district to represent, if she wants it, it just likely would be territory that might not be winnable for her).

I don't think the legislature would bother with Bowman or AOC if New York only loses one seat (though they might target AOC in the sense that they'll draw her out of her district, but still give her a seat to run in, that's unwinnable for her)

How exactly do you propose cutting up NY 27 without  giving the most red territory in NY to either  Buffalo or Rochester?

Actually, that district would probably be divided three ways. The Wyoming, Livingston and Ontario County portions would go in Tom Reed's District (currently New York 23), the Erie and Niagara County sections would go Brian Higgins's Buffalo based district, and the Monroe and Ontario County portions would go in Joseph Morellle's Rochester based district.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #84 on: July 07, 2020, 03:19:56 AM »

If New York loses only one district, I think NY-27 (Chris Jacobs) will be the district eliminated.

If New York loses two districts, I'd expect three targets. Jacobs and Jamal Bowman would probably get their seats eliminated, with AOC also being drawn out of her district (though she'd still have a district to represent, if she wants it, it just likely would be territory that might not be winnable for her).

I don't think the legislature would bother with Bowman or AOC if New York only loses one seat (though they might target AOC in the sense that they'll draw her out of her district, but still give her a seat to run in, that's unwinnable for her)

This is definitely wrong. There are still too many people west of Syracuse to squeeze them into 3 districts, so Jacobs will have a district to run in.

With one lost district, the state's geography forces NY-16 to be divided, with the likeliest option being that Bowman's base in the NE Bronx gets thrown into a district with AOC.

With two lost districts, Reed is the likeliest victim Upstate. Around NYC preserving Bowman's seat is pretty easy and AOC's seat is the obvious one to split up.
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Torie
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« Reply #85 on: July 07, 2020, 06:35:22 AM »

The Brooklyn part of that map is kind of crazy-pants. No way that's anything close to what ends up being drawn. They're not going to abolish a Hispanic district for the specific purpose of creating a new white district. That NY-08 is dead on arrival.

The rest of the map seems somewhat reasonable, but they would probably send NY-04 into the Bronx and maybe even all the way into Westchester in order to take more Asian areas into NY-06.

Your comment has considerable merit of course. Having said that, the Pubs would never agree to the chop up of the gerrymander extravaganza of the NYC area, and in particular the chop up of the "natural" south Brooklyn CD, that no law in the land requires. As it is, NY-11 tips to the Dems in this map, and it could have been drawn to avoid that by taking in Borough Park.

While the judge who drew the existing map did an excellent job upstate, his map downstate was an erose mess, that I would never spend the time drawing because I would find engaging in such an exercise to be infra dig.  

I would like to think that if the map goes to the courts again, a different judge would give more weight to respecting jurisdictional lines, and keeping erosity down to a dull roar. And depending on the census demographic data, it may be difficult to draw three performing Hispanic districts. As I implied, if the demographic data would support a 3rd performing Hispanic CD, without drawing something akin to the existing map (which may be a challenging task in all events), then I would redraw the map. Drawing the NYC area as I noted is premature in all events until the precinct ethnicity data becomes available, since that obviously is a major factor driving the location of the CD lines.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #86 on: July 07, 2020, 08:05:10 AM »

a) It's not going to a court, if the commission don't draw a map that the Democrats are happy with they can just pass their own through the State Assembly and Senate
b) Of course it's possible to draw three performing Hispanic districts. It's not even that complex - just adding Corona and Elmhurst to Velazquez's district would do it, although that's using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #87 on: July 07, 2020, 08:12:07 AM »
« Edited: July 07, 2020, 08:16:17 AM by Tintrlvr »

The Brooklyn part of that map is kind of crazy-pants. No way that's anything close to what ends up being drawn. They're not going to abolish a Hispanic district for the specific purpose of creating a new white district. That NY-08 is dead on arrival.

The rest of the map seems somewhat reasonable, but they would probably send NY-04 into the Bronx and maybe even all the way into Westchester in order to take more Asian areas into NY-06.

Your comment has considerable merit of course. Having said that, the Pubs would never agree to the chop up of the gerrymander extravaganza of the NYC area, and in particular the chop up of the "natural" south Brooklyn CD, that no law in the land requires. As it is, NY-11 tips to the Dems in this map, and it could have been drawn to avoid that by taking in Borough Park.

While the judge who drew the existing map did an excellent job upstate, his map downstate was an erose mess, that I would never spend the time drawing because I would find engaging in such an exercise to be infra dig.  

I would like to think that if the map goes to the courts again, a different judge would give more weight to respecting jurisdictional lines, and keeping erosity down to a dull roar. And depending on the census demographic data, it may be difficult to draw three performing Hispanic districts. As I implied, if the demographic data would support a 3rd performing Hispanic CD, without drawing something akin to the existing map (which may be a challenging task in all events), then I would redraw the map. Drawing the NYC area as I noted is premature in all events until the precinct ethnicity data becomes available, since that obviously is a major factor driving the location of the CD lines.

I'm sorry, but there's no way the Democrats on the commission would ever sign off on a map that eliminated Nydia Velazquez in order to create a Republican seat in Brooklyn. That's just completely out of the question. They would (obviously) rather the courts draw the map. And you're also just wrong on the courts: The courts would never eliminate a Hispanic seat (with an increasing Hispanic population) in favor of a white seat (with a declining white population), either.

Even if they were inclined to, why would the courts create a Republican white seat instead of a Democratic white seat? You admitted yourself that you shredded the white areas in the north of the borough instead of shredding the white areas in the south of the borough, which really is only justifiable one way or another on partisan grounds. Why would the courts preference the partisan interests of Republicans over the partisan interests of Democrats while also favoring white voters over Hispanic voters? It's not like it would be a Republican partisan drawing the map.
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Torie
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« Reply #88 on: July 07, 2020, 08:17:34 AM »

a) It's not going to a court, if the commission don't draw a map that the Democrats are happy with they can just pass their own through the State Assembly and Senate
b) Of course it's possible to draw three performing Hispanic districts. It's not even that complex - just adding Corona and Elmhurst to Velazquez's district would do it, although that's using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

I believe the Dems need a two thirds majority in the State Senate to draw their own map.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #89 on: July 07, 2020, 10:44:59 AM »

a) It's not going to a court, if the commission don't draw a map that the Democrats are happy with they can just pass their own through the State Assembly and Senate
b) Of course it's possible to draw three performing Hispanic districts. It's not even that complex - just adding Corona and Elmhurst to Velazquez's district would do it, although that's using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

I believe the Dems need a two thirds majority in the State Senate to draw their own map.

In other words, a net gain of two or more seats in the State Senate Tongue  IIRC, they're pretty widely expected to clear that barrier in 2020.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #90 on: July 07, 2020, 11:28:58 AM »
« Edited: July 07, 2020, 11:35:34 AM by Zaybay »

Im surprised people think the legislature will go after AOC and Bowman. It doesnt look at all likely. Not only has the legislature seen large growth in left wing over the course of these 4 years, but the two are also in very strategically important areas that are hard to dismantle.

AOC's seat has rapidly seen a demographic shift, to the point that it could considered a VRA Hispanic seat. By eliminating her seat, the surrounding seats have to take in very Hispanic territory, which would dilute many of the VRA required seats in the area. Meng cant take them in, and neither can Espaillat nor (probably) Torres. There are no good ways to divide up AOC's seat, and, in fact, it would probably better serve the map for her seat to just be given more Hispanics from other neighboring territories.

Bowman's seat also has a roughly similar problem, as cutting his seat means the largely Hispanic VRA seats have to take in African American territory, but besides that, his seat is rather geographically secure. Its very difficult, not impossible but difficult, to draw a map that doesnt include a seat that crosses between Westchester and the Bronx. Its definitely possible, but it would require a lot of contortions and twists that would likely endanger many other seats.

Also, sidenote, they're likely not going to eliminate a Hispanic seat. The Hispanic population in NYC is growing, and it wouldnt look good to either the courts nor other Democrats to crack one of their seats. There's also the problem of dividing up the Hispanic seat's population, which would lead to problems similar to the ones outlined with eliminating AOC's seat. If NYC+LI are losing a seat, its probably going to be a white seat.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #91 on: July 07, 2020, 12:06:25 PM »

a) It's not going to a court, if the commission don't draw a map that the Democrats are happy with they can just pass their own through the State Assembly and Senate
b) Of course it's possible to draw three performing Hispanic districts. It's not even that complex - just adding Corona and Elmhurst to Velazquez's district would do it, although that's using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

I believe the Dems need a two thirds majority in the State Senate to draw their own map.

They are likely to get that.  Dems only need two seats and there are two strongly Dem leaning open Republican seats in Rochester that they are favored to pick up.  There are also two other open seats (Syracuse and Buffalo) that they have at least a 50% chance of taking.
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Sol
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« Reply #92 on: July 07, 2020, 12:47:18 PM »

Would a southern Brooklyn Republican seat actually elect a Republican for congress? I was under the impression that those areas were more inclined to vote for Republicans downballot, especially considering the Democratic domination of NYC.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #93 on: July 07, 2020, 01:56:36 PM »

Im surprised people think the legislature will go after AOC and Bowman. It doesnt look at all likely. Not only has the legislature seen large growth in left wing over the course of these 4 years, but the two are also in very strategically important areas that are hard to dismantle.

AOC's seat has rapidly seen a demographic shift, to the point that it could considered a VRA Hispanic seat. By eliminating her seat, the surrounding seats have to take in very Hispanic territory, which would dilute many of the VRA required seats in the area. Meng cant take them in, and neither can Espaillat nor (probably) Torres. There are no good ways to divide up AOC's seat, and, in fact, it would probably better serve the map for her seat to just be given more Hispanics from other neighboring territories.

Bowman's seat also has a roughly similar problem, as cutting his seat means the largely Hispanic VRA seats have to take in African American territory, but besides that, his seat is rather geographically secure. Its very difficult, not impossible but difficult, to draw a map that doesnt include a seat that crosses between Westchester and the Bronx. Its definitely possible, but it would require a lot of contortions and twists that would likely endanger many other seats.

Also, sidenote, they're likely not going to eliminate a Hispanic seat. The Hispanic population in NYC is growing, and it wouldnt look good to either the courts nor other Democrats to crack one of their seats. There's also the problem of dividing up the Hispanic seat's population, which would lead to problems similar to the ones outlined with eliminating AOC's seat. If NYC+LI are losing a seat, its probably going to be a white seat.

Whatever happens, there's got to be at least some disruption to NY-16, as there's no other way to get from Upstate to NYC and you aren't going to get an integer number of seats north and south to it, and probably nowhere near. It's possible to minimise the disruption if you loop a seat round the eastern edge of the seat, but that only makes sense if those drawing the lines particularly want to protect Bowman - he can still get badly affected even if there's no deliberate effort to hurt him. But in general he'll do better if two seats are lost rather than one, because if one seat goes in NYC and one Upstate, Bowman's seat gets moved around less.

AOC is probably more secure (both due to location and because nobody wants to face her in a primary), but she's still going to be protected less than her near neighbours - Meng needs to have an Asian-opportunity seat, Velazquez needs a performing Hispanic district, Maloney wants to be shored up in a primary (although that may mean she wants less of Queens in her seat.)

With one seat, the numbers actually work reasonably well for keeping AOC's seat similar to it's current lines, but shifting north to grab most of the black-majority areas of NY-16. It would be a comfortable Hispanic plurality and could be considered Hispanic-access at worst. Alternatively you could shift it further into Torres' seat and try to make it Hispanic-majority, but if you do that then the black-majority areas probably end up with Espaillat, which he isn't going to want.

With two seats, it's pretty difficult to keep Velazquez's district as a performing Hispanic district under something resembling the present lines (although she herself probably wouldn't be in difficulty), because whichever direction you go you take in lots of high-turnout white liberals. It depends how high a Hispanic percentage she wants, but if she wants a clear plurality then the easiest way to do that is to take most of the Queens portions of AOC's district. In addition, Suozzi's district will need to gain more of Queens (Rice is probably blocked in by Meeks) and as he can only go so far into Meng's district, he'll probably also have to reach into the Bronx. That could leave NY-14 divided multiple ways.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #94 on: July 14, 2020, 01:22:01 PM »

Anyone guessing what NY D's might do if Balter wins, that would probably cause a crapfest especially if NY loses 2 seats.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #95 on: July 14, 2020, 01:27:28 PM »

Anyone guessing what NY D's might do if Balter wins, that would probably cause a crapfest especially if NY loses 2 seats.

If Balter wins and Brindisi loses, it’s easy.  Just cut up Tenney’s district and give Utica to Balter.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #96 on: July 14, 2020, 01:28:30 PM »

Anyone guessing what NY D's might do if Balter wins, that would probably cause a crapfest especially if NY loses 2 seats.

If Balter wins and Brindisi loses, it’s easy.  Just cut up Tenney’s district and give Utica to Balter.

Well thats obvious, the question is what do D's do if both win? Moderates in the legislature will want Brindisi and liberals will want Balter, and this forgets all the parochial concerns in NYC.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #97 on: July 14, 2020, 01:29:48 PM »

Anyone guessing what NY D's might do if Balter wins, that would probably cause a crapfest especially if NY loses 2 seats.

If Balter wins and Brindisi loses, it’s easy.  Just cut up Tenney’s district and give Utica to Balter.

Well thats obvious, the question is what do D's do if both win?

They would have to do the same thing and make them run against each other.  I don’t see how there can be winnable seats for both.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #98 on: July 14, 2020, 03:12:33 PM »

Anyone guessing what NY D's might do if Balter wins, that would probably cause a crapfest especially if NY loses 2 seats.

If Balter wins and Brindisi loses, it’s easy.  Just cut up Tenney’s district and give Utica to Balter.

Why would you move Utica? It's not that Democratic, if Brindisi loses there are better places to shore up the Syracuse district.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #99 on: July 14, 2020, 07:38:54 PM »

Anyone guessing what NY D's might do if Balter wins, that would probably cause a crapfest especially if NY loses 2 seats.

If Balter wins and Brindisi loses, it’s easy.  Just cut up Tenney’s district and give Utica to Balter.

Well thats obvious, the question is what do D's do if both win? Moderates in the legislature will want Brindisi and liberals will want Balter, and this forgets all the parochial concerns in NYC.

Onondaga County has more than half the population of any merged district, and an even higher share of Democrats. Whatever happens, if Balter wins in 2020 she has a seat in 2022. 
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