2020 New York Redistricting
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Author Topic: 2020 New York Redistricting  (Read 98994 times)
Nyvin
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« Reply #550 on: January 10, 2022, 08:32:38 PM »

FWIW:


So the 4 R seats would be three upstate and one in Long Island?   The four swing seats would be one in Long Island, NY-11, and two in upstate (assuming the southeastern area)?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #551 on: January 10, 2022, 08:36:29 PM »

FWIW:


So the 4 R seats would be three upstate and one in Long Island?   The four swing seats would be one in Long Island, NY-11, and two in upstate (assuming the southeastern area)?

Ye, prolly the new equivalents to NY-1, NY-11, NY-18, and NY-19. I don't blame them for a NY-1 that isn't totally safe; Long Island makes that quite tricky, but NY-11 is really a test of whether NY Dems will let incumbent demands get in the way.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #552 on: January 10, 2022, 08:40:27 PM »

Considering how competitive on paper Dem-held districts like NY-3, -4, -18, and -19 are now, it's not hard to see 4 competitive districts that have strong D incumbents. Reducing LI to one R district is going to produce competitive districts alongside.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #553 on: January 10, 2022, 11:48:23 PM »

The obvious answer in my view is to put red areas in south Brooklyn into the two black seats and Nadler's seat. Nadler already has a bunch of the territory and I highly doubt a Manhattan based district would be in any danger. Obviously the black districts would be incredibly safe. They still might not want those voters but it'd basically be personal preference and not an existential threat
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« Reply #554 on: January 11, 2022, 12:10:30 AM »

Not sure what that territory has to do with not locking up NY-11...NY-11 doesn't have any of it already.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #555 on: January 11, 2022, 12:40:06 AM »

The obvious answer in my view is to put red areas in south Brooklyn into the two black seats and Nadler's seat. Nadler already has a bunch of the territory and I highly doubt a Manhattan based district would be in any danger. Obviously the black districts would be incredibly safe. They still might not want those voters but it'd basically be personal preference and not an existential threat
Isn't the alternative to take liberal gentrifiers that are more inclined to vote for primary challengers than more conservative South Brooklynites likely would?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #556 on: January 11, 2022, 05:53:15 AM »

FWIW:


If that's the case then why not accept the Commission Democratic map? It served Democratic interests pretty decently while not being a crazy gerrymander.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #557 on: January 11, 2022, 08:16:35 AM »

My prediction is that if Staten Island is not sunk full of gentrifiers, it will not be because of the South Brooklyn republicans, but because of West Brooklyn. Velázquez wanted Red Hook and Sunset Park in 2010 and Nadler Borough Park. Those demands may be maintained. If you already have two districts snaking along the shoreline, it's going to be hard - not impossible but very hard - to fit in a third.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #558 on: January 11, 2022, 09:55:57 AM »
« Edited: January 11, 2022, 10:35:13 AM by RussFeingoldWasRobbed »

Spuxs map is a good example of what we could get(it double bunks SP Maloney/Jones so that doesn't work) but it fits what this guy is saying nonetheless
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Brittain33
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« Reply #559 on: January 11, 2022, 10:04:24 PM »

This isn’t about New York redistricting, but it indicates perhaps some inflation in Szymanski’s optimism.

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #560 on: January 12, 2022, 09:23:19 AM »

This isn’t about New York redistricting, but it indicates perhaps some inflation in Szymanski’s optimism.



Dems really need to make sure Courtney doesn’t retire this cycle.  Try and get him to wait until 2024.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #561 on: January 14, 2022, 11:47:53 AM »

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #562 on: January 14, 2022, 12:07:18 PM »



So much for any potential overperformance.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #563 on: January 14, 2022, 12:08:11 PM »



Well that seat is an auto-pickup now.   I'm starting to think the 10 Republicans who voted for impeachment really just did it to try to score brownie points with Dems (besides Cheney obviously).
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #564 on: January 14, 2022, 07:38:42 PM »



So much for any potential overperformance.
There's loads of moderate heroes in the Syracuse area; the right kind of R could definitely win here. But it's still much harder to defend this seat if it's open.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #565 on: January 18, 2022, 02:23:19 PM »

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leecannon
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« Reply #566 on: January 18, 2022, 02:25:42 PM »



Do it! Do it! Do it! Do it!

Gerrymander is the game that’s being played in American politics right now, so until someone flips the table democrats have to play
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Torie
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« Reply #567 on: January 18, 2022, 02:40:11 PM »

For gerrymandering to reach its full potential, districts really need to cross state lines. Think of it, all those panhandle Pubs in TX could be deployed into NM, and do something useful. Actually, why should CA have the most populated, and Wyoming the least, come to think of it?
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #568 on: January 18, 2022, 06:17:04 PM »
« Edited: January 18, 2022, 06:23:39 PM by Senator CentristRepublican »

FWIW:


This is pathetic. Most if not all of them are in ultra-blue seats. Unless they are entering an incumbent v incumbent primary - they might, I don't know about that for sure - they should shut up or be ignored. I can't think of any good reason other than that any of them would have to complain. Imagine being an incumbent representative whose biggest reelection-related fear is being put in a seat that (gasp!) only went for their party by some 30 points instead of 40-70. Those who complained should have their names publicly released so Democrats nationally can humiliate them and hopefully primary them. You have to have extremely low self-confidence to think you could somehow lose in an NYC district as a Democrat. You have to be absolutely pathetic, spineless, and weak.
So, does anyone know who all complained and what 'reason(s)' they had? Because Malliotakis benefits from the cowardice her spineless colleagues in the NYC delegation.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #569 on: January 18, 2022, 06:21:54 PM »

FWIW:


This is pathetic. Most if not all of them are in ultra-blue seats. Unless they are entering an incumbent v incumbent primary in the current map - they might, I don't know about that for sure - they should shut up or be ignored. I can't think of any good reason other than that any of them would have to complain. Imagine being an incumbent representative whose biggest reelection-related fear is being put in a seat that (gasp!) only went for their party by some 30 points instead of 40-70. Those who complained should have their names publicly released so Democrats nationally can humiliate them and hopefully primary them. You have to have extremely low self-confidence to think you could somehow lose in an NYC district as a Democrat.
Most likely it is not due to concern over losing the GE - it's unfamiliar groups being involved in the primary. Groups they don't currently represent.
Problem is, change and churn mean incumbents have that already. And as I previously noted, southern Brooklyn, though overwhelmingly registered Dem, is probably more deferential to incumbents than gentrifying territory in northern Brooklyn would be.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #570 on: January 18, 2022, 06:23:18 PM »

FWIW:


This is pathetic. Most if not all of them are in ultra-blue seats. Unless they are entering an incumbent v incumbent primary - they might, I don't know about that for sure - they should shut up or be ignored. I can't think of any good reason other than that any of them would have to complain. Imagine being an incumbent representative whose biggest reelection-related fear is being put in a seat that (gasp!) only went for their party by some 30 points instead of 40-70. Those who complained should have their names publicly released so Democrats nationally can humiliate them and hopefully primary them. You have to have extremely low self-confidence to think you could somehow lose in an NYC district as a Democrat. You have to be absolutely pathetic, spineless, and weak.
So, does anyone know who all complained and what 'reason(s)' they had?

Not a credible source
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #571 on: January 18, 2022, 06:25:27 PM »

FWIW:


This is pathetic. Most if not all of them are in ultra-blue seats. Unless they are entering an incumbent v incumbent primary in the current map - they might, I don't know about that for sure - they should shut up or be ignored. I can't think of any good reason other than that any of them would have to complain. Imagine being an incumbent representative whose biggest reelection-related fear is being put in a seat that (gasp!) only went for their party by some 30 points instead of 40-70. Those who complained should have their names publicly released so Democrats nationally can humiliate them and hopefully primary them. You have to have extremely low self-confidence to think you could somehow lose in an NYC district as a Democrat.
Most likely it is not due to concern over losing the GE - it's unfamiliar groups being involved in the primary. Groups they don't currently represent.
Problem is, change and churn mean incumbents have that already. And as I previously noted, southern Brooklyn, though overwhelmingly registered Dem, is probably more deferential to incumbents than gentrifying territory in northern Brooklyn would be.

No offense, but I didn't really get a lot of what you just said over there. Could you possibly reword it a bit?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #572 on: January 18, 2022, 06:34:00 PM »

FWIW:


This is pathetic. Most if not all of them are in ultra-blue seats. Unless they are entering an incumbent v incumbent primary in the current map - they might, I don't know about that for sure - they should shut up or be ignored. I can't think of any good reason other than that any of them would have to complain. Imagine being an incumbent representative whose biggest reelection-related fear is being put in a seat that (gasp!) only went for their party by some 30 points instead of 40-70. Those who complained should have their names publicly released so Democrats nationally can humiliate them and hopefully primary them. You have to have extremely low self-confidence to think you could somehow lose in an NYC district as a Democrat.
Most likely it is not due to concern over losing the GE - it's unfamiliar groups being involved in the primary. Groups they don't currently represent.
Problem is, change and churn mean incumbents have that already. And as I previously noted, southern Brooklyn, though overwhelmingly registered Dem, is probably more deferential to incumbents than gentrifying territory in northern Brooklyn would be.

No offense, but I didn't really get a lot of what you just said over there. Could you possibly reword it a bit?
The rules of the road are that New York City is overwhelmingly, overwhelmingly, registered Democrats. Even a huge chunk of hardline GOP voters are registered Dem because that way they have somewhat of a voice in how the city is run indirectly. And there are also more culturally conservative or moderate people in Southern Brooklyn who are generally establishment-friendly and not hostile to the idea of machine politics at all - they are more pliable, essentially.
Meanwhile Northern Brooklyn is very much increasingly gentrifiers - think places like Bedford-Stuyvesant. These are generally liberals - especially white liberals - more inclined to vote for primary challengers. And they are more likely to vote too.

Problem is, the liberal gentrifier territory is presently within the borders of seats represented by these congressmen, and the more "machine-friendly” Southern Brooklyn areas aren't (mostly). And incumbents are generally inclined to want to have as least change in their districts as possible, something we've seen time and time again this redistricting cycle. This tendency is strong enough to make cracking NY-11 not a certain proposition, despite the math being incredibly easy to bring it about on paper.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #573 on: January 18, 2022, 06:47:45 PM »

FWIW:


This is pathetic. Most if not all of them are in ultra-blue seats. Unless they are entering an incumbent v incumbent primary in the current map - they might, I don't know about that for sure - they should shut up or be ignored. I can't think of any good reason other than that any of them would have to complain. Imagine being an incumbent representative whose biggest reelection-related fear is being put in a seat that (gasp!) only went for their party by some 30 points instead of 40-70. Those who complained should have their names publicly released so Democrats nationally can humiliate them and hopefully primary them. You have to have extremely low self-confidence to think you could somehow lose in an NYC district as a Democrat.
Most likely it is not due to concern over losing the GE - it's unfamiliar groups being involved in the primary. Groups they don't currently represent.
Problem is, change and churn mean incumbents have that already. And as I previously noted, southern Brooklyn, though overwhelmingly registered Dem, is probably more deferential to incumbents than gentrifying territory in northern Brooklyn would be.

No offense, but I didn't really get a lot of what you just said over there. Could you possibly reword it a bit?
The rules of the road are that New York City is overwhelmingly, overwhelmingly, registered Democrats. Even a huge chunk of hardline GOP voters are registered Dem because that way they have somewhat of a voice in how the city is run indirectly. And there are also more culturally conservative or moderate people in Southern Brooklyn who are generally establishment-friendly and not hostile to the idea of machine politics at all - they are more pliable, essentially.
Meanwhile Northern Brooklyn is very much increasingly gentrifiers - think places like Bedford-Stuyvesant. These are generally liberals - especially white liberals - more inclined to vote for primary challengers. And they are more likely to vote too.

Problem is, the liberal gentrifier territory is presently within the borders of seats represented by these congressmen, and the more "machine-friendly” Southern Brooklyn areas aren't (mostly). And incumbents are generally inclined to want to have as least change in their districts as possible, something we've seen time and time again this redistricting cycle. This tendency is strong enough to make cracking NY-11 not a certain proposition, despite the math being incredibly easy to bring it about on paper.

So basically (correct me if I'm wrong) you're saying people like Carolyn Maloney represent swaths of establishment-friendly, overwhelmingly Democratic area, but there are pockets of more progressive areas inclined to favour challengers. The incumbents want to avoid those areas and therefore blindly support any least-change map, even if it hurts Democratic prospects. Is that right? If so, it kind of falls under my category of 'NYC Democrats are selfish and spineless'. In fairness, though, I don't blame them all that much after what happened to Crowley back in 2018...still, couldn't all the reactionary, progressive areas be packed into districts already represented by progressives, like AOC's, Torres', and Jones'?
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #574 on: January 18, 2022, 06:51:21 PM »

FWIW:


This is pathetic. Most if not all of them are in ultra-blue seats. Unless they are entering an incumbent v incumbent primary - they might, I don't know about that for sure - they should shut up or be ignored. I can't think of any good reason other than that any of them would have to complain. Imagine being an incumbent representative whose biggest reelection-related fear is being put in a seat that (gasp!) only went for their party by some 30 points instead of 40-70. Those who complained should have their names publicly released so Democrats nationally can humiliate them and hopefully primary them. You have to have extremely low self-confidence to think you could somehow lose in an NYC district as a Democrat. You have to be absolutely pathetic, spineless, and weak.
So, does anyone know who all complained and what 'reason(s)' they had?

Not a credible source

Even if the source itself isn't reputable, their claim is very possible, and I fear it might be. After reading TimTurner's explanation, it would make some sense if this is the case.
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