2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

So after more retirements, it presently appears that Democratic a supermajority is easily within reach in the State Senate. Now that Felder is on the dem side and desiring power, there are 40 dems and they only need three more. Two of those three are now provided by the retirements in Rochester. The other 8 (and potentially more) open seats are forcing the GOP to play defense in their safer seats. A dem supermajority would allow the democrats to ignore their toothless commission without jumping through hoops or breaking much sweat.



Quick and dirty GOP retirement map, I do not claim ownership over the template.

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1218630301896839169

Ratings from NY insider when there were only 9 retirements.

[Tintrlvr]

So after more retirements, it presently appears that Democratic a supermajority is easily within reach in the State Senate. Now that Felder is on the dem side and desiring power, there are 40 dems and they only need three more. Two of those three are now provided by the retirements in Rochester. The other 8 (and potentially more) open seats are forcing the GOP to play defense in their safer seats. A dem supermajority would allow the democrats to ignore their toothless commission without jumping through hoops or breaking much sweat.



Quick and dirty GOP retirement map, I do not claim ownership over the template.

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1218630301896839169

Ratings from NY insider when there were only 9 retirements.

While there isn't much room to gerrymander the Congressional map anyway, there's definitely a lot of room to gerrymander the state legislative map (first de-gerrymander, and then gerrymander in the Democrats' favor) and ensure the Republicans can never come near controlling the State Senate again, which will I think be the top priority for the state legislative Democrats. Of course, even if they don't win a super-majority, a commission-drawn map will mean the end of any Republican chances at winning the State Senate again (just looking at that map, anyone should be able to see why).

[Nyvin]

While there isn't much room to gerrymander the Congressional map anyway, there's definitely a lot of room to gerrymander the state legislative map (first de-gerrymander, and then gerrymander in the Democrats' favor) and ensure the Republicans can never come near controlling the State Senate again, which will I think be the top priority for the state legislative Democrats. Of course, even if they don't win a super-majority, a commission-drawn map will mean the end of any Republican chances at winning the State Senate again (just looking at that map, anyone should be able to see why).

Watch all the blue avatars here claim that a normal Rochester seat, a normal Syracuse seat, and a normal Ulster County seat makes for a "Democratic Gerrymander".  

[Sol]

Would Cuomo sign a non-GOP gerrymandered Senate map? He went with the Republicans last time.

[Tintrlvr]

Would Cuomo sign a non-GOP gerrymandered Senate map? He went with the Republicans last time.

Of course he would. The Republicans controlled the State Senate last time, so no map would have been passed otherwise. He could have thrown the maps to the courts, but the Assembly Democrats wanted to control their own map rather than let the courts decide. The map last time was a "compromise": the Democrats got to gerrymander the Assembly and the Republicans got to gerrymander the Senate. That's obviously out the window this time. The only options this time for Cuomo are a commission-drawn map (which it's hard to assess but probably would be relatively fair, overall) or a legislature-drawn map (which will be a Democratic gerrymander).

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1224749946865430529

They have a few months to see if their powers will be more than advisory.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

this is a map I constructed re: population changes in New York. We are seeing many places undergo Japanesque population declines.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Now that DRA has CVAP data, I took a look at what a commission State Senate map might look at, assuming nobody put their thumbs on the scales too much. Outside of NYC, I prioritised minimising county and municipality splits, with the exception of Rochester and Buffalo (as keeping them whole is effectively a Republican gerrymander and I suspect that Democrats will be able to successfully argue to the commission that enough areas outside those cities are functionally part of them that a split is better for CoIs.)

Inside NYC, I worked out groups of boroughs first, then prioritised the VRA first, then tried to keep the lines as clean as possible. I didn't pay much attention to partisan data, but as I was trying to put areas with similar interests together a few packs did naturally form themselves. I took no account of incumbents' residences, so obviously this might be dead on arrival in Albany.

The link is here: https://davesredistricting.org/join/f0b86bc6-7100-4dbc-8cc4-585a5da79375

Statewide:

NYC:

In partisan terms, 45 districts have a Democratic PVI and 18 have a Republican one (though the latter will probably go up once 2012 drops out of the averages.) 34 districts are D+10 or above and 37 are D+5 or above.

On Long Island, the 8th district is majority-minority by total population but white-majority by CVAP. It's possibly a black-opportunity district, but a bit of a reach. Most of the other districts were drawn based on what combinations of towns were within the acceptable population deviation.

Queens and Manhattan are paired, because the former can't stand alone and whilst the latter theoretically could, it's got the population for 5.24 districts which in practice is too hard to balance whilst remaining within the 5% limit. There are two black-majority districts in Queens and one performing black-plurality district in Harlem (49.6% by total population, 46.4% by CVAP). The 14th in Corona and the 32nd in northern Manhattan are Hispanic-majority by CVAP, whilst the 16th has a substantial Hispanic plurality by total population but a narrow white plurality (39.9% vs. 39.1%) by CVAP. In NE Queens, the 12th is drawn as a performing Asian VRA district (57.5% by total population, 47% by CVAP) and the 13th is narrowly plurality Asian by population (37.3% vs. 36.1% white) but has a substantially white plurality by CVAP (though John Liu would hold it without difficulty.)

In Brooklyn, there's still the population to draw 4 black VRA districts, so I don't think there's any legal justification not to. The snag is that this means they all have to take long-awkward shapes, so they can grab enough areas in the east of the borough to keep a black-majority and pair them with whiter areas in the west to avoid them becoming packs.

I couldn't draw a clean majority Hispanic district by CVAP, but my 17th will probably perform (47.9% Hispanic by total population, 40.9% H 30.7% W 20.8% B by CVAP.) The cut of Williamsburg is ugly, but if you take the entirety of it in then the Hispanic CVAP falls precipitously and if you take none of it you impinge on the black VRA districts instead.

In south-western Brooklyn, there's enough of an Asian population that an opportunity district should be drawn (I'm assuming that they form a politically and ethnically coherent group, so correct me if this is incorrect.) That's my 22nd, which is narrowly plurality Asian by CVAP (38.5% versus 37.5% white) and has a much stronger plurality by total population.

Once you factor all those in, the non-VRA districts more or less have to fill in the gaps. The 19th ends up as a Republican district in south Brooklyn, but Borough Park gets sunk into a black VRA seat. Unless you claim that Orthodox Jews should also be encompassed by the VRA, this would always be likely to happen. The only way to preserve the current vote-sink Felder holds whilst still drawing the Asian opportunity seat would be to stretch one of the VRA districts along to Coney Island, which would hardly be compact.

In the Bronx, you've got 4 Hispanic-majority districts by CVAP, and one black-majority one which also takes in Mount Vernon and parts of Yonkers.

Upstate, Democrats can rely upon the Albany and Syracuse seats and two seats in both Monroe and Erie, and under most circumstances also the seats based on Ithaca and Ulster County.

I would very much expect this not to be what gets passed, given incumbent preferences, but I thought it might serve as a good baseline of what to expect. Thoughts?

[Former President tack50]

Speaking of this, here is a map I made a while back that basically tried to be a "fair" and "least change possible" map:





https://davesredistricting.org/join/45eee988-fb0a-4872-986f-2f402b6939ea

Since NY does not have Clinton vs Trump numbers, I will just include the PVI

NY-01: R+5
NY-02: EVEN
NY-03: EVEN
NY-04: D+6 (50% white, 23% black, 19% Hispanic, 9% Asian)
NY-05: D+40
NY-06: D+20 (44% Asian, 25% White, 23% Hispanic, 8% Black)
NY-07: D+27 (40% Hispanic, 34% White, 21% Asian, 6% Black)
NY-08: D+43 (43% Black, 31% White, 23% Hispanic, 6% Asian)
NY-09: D+27 (44% Black, 34% White, 13% Asian, 11% Hispanic)
NY-10: D+35 (52% White, 22% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 8% Black)
NY-11: R+2 (58% White, 18% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 10% Black)
NY-12: D+33 (59% White, 16% Black, 14% Hispanic, 13% Asian)
NY-13: D+34 (54% Hispanic, 24% White, 23% Black, 6% Asian)
NY-14: D+32 (51% Hispanic, 29% Black, 19% White, 6% Asian)
NY-15: D+38 (50% Hispanic, 42% Black, 11% White)
NY-16: D+7
NY-17: R+2
NY-18: R+2
NY-19: D+2
NY-20: D+6
NY-21: R+5
NY-22: R+3
NY-23: D+6
NY-24: R+12
NY-25: D+8

[lfromnj]

I dont think long island 2 and 3 should be split vertically. Split them north and south shore.
Very different cultures

[EastAnglianLefty]

Clean-ish bipartisan 26 district map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/064e8710-ae0f-4867-b163-d11d9066e620

I figure we're not going to see a full-on incumbent protection map, because most of the Democratic delegation isn't vulnerable in the general election full stop, and plenty of others have only vulnerable if a Republican gerrymander combines with a wave year. In contrast, there aren't really any districts in the states Democrats couldn't theoretically win in a good year against a weak incumbent. So Katko isn't going to get a safe seat, for example, because Democrats have no reason to agree to that.

That said, Democrats do have lines they want in particular places that they would need the Republicans on the commission to agree to, so they do have an incentive to make concessions in places. This is a guess at what they might go for if both sides wanted a reasonably clean-looking map and Democrats looked to maximise their options rather than trying anything too ambitious.







NY-1: R+5
NY-2: R+3
NY-3: D+2
NY-4: D+8
NY-5: D+30, black VRA district
NY-6: D+20, Asian opportunity district
NY-7: D+37, Hispanic opportunity district
NY-8: D+35, black VRA district
NY-9: D+27, black VRA district,
NY-10: D+37
NY-11: D+4
NY-12: D+29
NY-13: D+43, Hispanic VRA district
NY-14: D+34, black/Hispanic opportunity district
NY-15: D+43, Hispanic VRA district
NY-16: D+14
NY-17: D+0
NY-18: D+2
NY-19: D+6
NY-20: R+2
NY-21: D+4
NY-22: R+9
NY-23: R+3
NY-24: D+7
NY-25: R+12
NY-26: D+9

This map assumes that all incumbents win re-election this year bar Brindisi (and that the retirements are succeeded by someone from their party.) Even if Brindisi wins, I'm not sure there's that much incentive to protect him as a) he's proved he doesn't need that much protection; b) he's not got any seniority to speak of, nor close allies in Albany and c) protecting him means throwing him in with Katko, which Republicans aren't going to agree to and Democrats shouldn't need, when they could just get a competent Syracuse-based candidate instead.

All incumbents have somewhere to run, with the short stick being held by Lowey's replacement - although if she's succeeded by a Westchester-based Democrat, they might have a shot at NY-16. That district reaches into the NW Bronx because I assume that's where Engel lives, but doesn't include Mount Vernon to try to protect him from a primary challenge from Bowman. If Bowman does beat him, NY-16 would probably become entirely Westchester-based, although what happens in the Bronx is anybody's guess.

Meeks, Jeffries and Clarke each get a district that is 47% black by both total population and CVAP, which ought to be safe enough (especially as the white population in their districts is heavily Republican.)

Kathleen Rice gets a district that is narrowly minority-majority by total population, though I could see her being eager to give some heavily-Democratic minority precincts to Suozzi to ensure she's protected from primaries if her pre-Congress career becomes more controversial in the coming months.

Meng's district has a strong Asian plurality by total population, but only a narrow plurality by CVAP. Substitute Asian for Hispanic and you can say the same thing for Velazquez. Meng shouldn't mind either way and whilst Velazquez might, she's in no position to complain - she's at much less risk of a primary than Jeffries or Clarke, so she's just going to have to take her share on NW Brooklyn hipsters.

Rose gets Park Slope, which doesn't quite make him safe but certainly makes him favoured. Getting Republicans to agree to this might be a stretch, but if they do kick up a fuss over that then Democrats are likely to argue for combining Ithaca and Syracuse, or for redrawing Long Island in a more aggressive fashion.

Espaillat's district becomes narrowly Hispanic by CVAP, whilst AOC's district is approximately one-third black and one-third Hispanic by CVAP. In the event Bowman does win, you could theoretically make AOC's district majority-Hispanic and put Bowman and Espaillat into a plurality-black district, thought that would be ugly and it seems a little unlikely a commission would chuck Espaillat under the bus like that when such a district would be unlikely to pass the Gingles test.

Upstate, Maloney and Delgado get districts that aren't radically shifted from their present partisanship, whilst Stefanik has little to complain about. Brindisi's district gets a few points redder as it swaps Binghamton for Jefferson County, whilst Reed might be a little worried about having to deal with a district containing both Binghamton and Ithaca. If this is not to your taste, you could shift Binghamton into Brindisi's district, Wayne, Cayuga and Seneca counties into Reed's and have Katko's district head north along Lake Erie, though that's probably a little Republican-friendly for Democratic commissioners to agree to it.

[EastAnglianLefty]

As it's still possible, I took a look at what a 25 district map might look like, working from the same basic assumptions as in the 26 district map I posted earlier.

I didn't come in with any particular assumptions about which seats were going to get axed and I was a little surprised to find that the two that disappeared were Delgado's and Ocasio-Cortez's.

Maps:



Link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bb77aac8-9803-4811-9899-466381aa2b9a

PVIs:
NY-1 - R+4
NY-2 - R+2
NY-3 - D+4
NY-4 - D+5
NY-5 - D+30
NY-6 - D+21
NY-7 - D+34
NY-8 - D+36
NY-9 - D+26
NY-10 - D+37
NY-11 - D+5
NY-12 - D+30
NY-13 - D+44
NY-14 - D+44
NY-15 - D+24
NY-16 - D+8
NY-17 - R+2
NY-18 - D+5
NY-19 - R+4
NY-20 - R+2
NY-21 - D+3
NY-22 - R+3
NY-23 - D+6
NY-24 - R+13
NY-25 - D+9

Explanation:
On Long Island, the town of Hempsted is almost exactly the right size for a congressional district in a 25 seat map and whilst I don't expect those drawing the lines to care too much about respecting municipal boundaries, it creates a fairly sensible seat for Rice. If you follow that arrangement, Suffolk plus the southern part of Oyster Bay is the right size for two seats and a north-south orientation probably reflects COIs best.

Suozzi then has to take in about 300k from NYC and if you're going to do that whilst still keeping NY-06 as an Asian opportunity seat, that means heading up into the East Bronx.

The higher population required with a 25 district map means it's harder to keep Velazquez's district Hispanic-plurality if you maintain its present orientation. However, if you loop it round Meng's and into Jackson Heights and Corona, it becomes comfortably Hispanic-majority by total population and there's a very clear plurality by CVAP too. I'm not sure Velazquez would be overjoyed, as this might be the best district for AOC to run in.

Meeks, Clarke and Jeffries then divide up southern Brooklyn between them, with each having a district that's just under 47% black by CVAP and which should maintain their base. Sunset Park and Park Slope should make NY-11 safe D and Maloney and Jeffries divide up the remainder of Brooklyn between them - this split could be eliminated, but I think the map looks nicer this way.

In the Bronx, Espaillat, whoever wins tonight and Bowman/Engel each get a district that's pretty close to what they have now and Lowey's district also has a recognisable successor.

Upstate, things get a bit trickier. NY-17 is clearly more Maloney's than Delgado's, though it's a little redder than the current NY-18. Tonko has the best claim on this NY-18, although I just now note I've drawn him out and there must be a decent chance he'll retire anyway, in which case Delgado might have a shot at this one.

NY-19 is perhaps winnable by Brindisi, although there's a good chance he'd be beaten by an Ulster County Democrat in the primary anyway. Stefanik ought to be fine in the North Country seat.

You're going to have 5 seats for the bits of the state west of Syracuse/Binghamton and this is far from the only solution. You're going to get a Rochester seat and a Buffalo seat, but everything else can be varied. Here NY-21 is designed to contain areas in the orbit of Syracuse, but it'd be easy enough to remove Oswego, for example, and to chuck in Ithaca instead. Similarly, for the two rural seats I went with an east-west arrangement, but north-south is equally feasible and turns NY-22 from a potential swing seat into a Republican banker.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Slight tweak to my 26 district map in light of Engel's defeat: https://davesredistricting.org/join/064e8710-ae0f-4867-b163-d11d9066e620

[Torie]

This is a map for upstate NY assuming NY drops two seats and ends up with 25 seats rather than 26. The population estimates take the 7-1-19 census estimates and extrapolate forward the annualized rate of population change from 7-1-17 to 7-1-19 by county over the remaining 9 months until the 4-1-20 census date. Cinyc shared with me his opinion that he is quite  confident now that NY will drop 2 seats given the lagging census response rate in NYC, and that is good enough for me. This map is one that might be drawn with a bipartisan vote  or by the courts - in other words it assumes that the Dems do not get a two thirds majority in the State Senate and use that majority to draw a Dem gerrymander that the governor signs. All of the above is just one old man's opinion of course.



PS:  It is annoying that the new DRA utility does not seem to allow you to renumber CD's so the set of numbers I actually have is chaotic. At least it does allow you to play with the colors. This particular gay is very sensitive about color combinations!

[EastAnglianLefty]

Fairly similar to my Upstate map, I think. Though I suspect a bipartisan map wouldn't draw out both Stefanik and Tonko from their districts, so a couple of tweaks to prevent that would be likely.

[Sol]

New DRA doesn't let you renumber, but it does make switching the land area of two CDs much easier with the locking tool.

[Boobs]

I was curious about the potential for a map that screws Stefanik out in 2022; even if it's a Republican wave year it should be screwy enough to knock her off in 2024 barring any insane trends.



It's rather ugly, I'd admit. But basically the current NY-21 is dismantled and split among 6 districts, each of which would have very little of Stefanik's base for her to win a primary.  (The numbers are temporary just for the purpose of this experiment.)

NY-01 - Double bunked with Katko. It's also D+3 and a narrow/plurality Clinton win, which means that even if Stefanik were to win a primary, she would have a tough race in the general.

NY-02 - Has a large portion of the Democratic-leaning area of the current NY-21; it also overlaps with the most significant parts of NY-19. a D+2.5 district, so another competitive general if Stefanik would win - probably against Delgado.

NY-03 - Contains Stefanik's home. It's double-bunked with Tonko, who almost certainly wins in this D+5 district, almost double-digit Clinton win.

NY-04 - The rural-most parts of NY-21 are now moved into a monstrosity of a district; Brindisi, being a strong candidate in Utica, would be an odds-on favourite in this district, which is R+1 (Compared to the current R+6 lean of the 22nd). The district's reliance on college dems in Ithaca and Binghamton could mean lower midterm turnout leads to a Republican win, however. I doubt that Stefanik would be that Republican.

NY-08 - This Southern Tier-anchored district takes in parts of Fulton and Montgomery counties. Tom Reed is safe in this R+11 district, and Stefanik would not be able to defeat him on his home turf.

NY-09 - This district takes in the few swingy parts of Fulton and Montgomery and places them in an R+1 Hudson Valley district. It's 95% new to Stefanik, so it'll be a tough primary and general for her.

I don't believe this is anything close to what would be passed, or what would be considered a good map. But it does provide a possible way to screw over a potential rising star in the Republican Party, although the state's partisan lean limits her upward trajectory regardless.  Of course, a commission would never allow for this. But it's good fun.
 

[Nyvin]

Is there any valid reason why NY Dems wouldn't link Syracuse with Ithaca?  I'm not really seeing this as difficult or ugly.   It actually works out nice and gives a Utica district kinda sorta similar to the current NY-22.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b248e051-4d27-44b1-9bcc-faa6287d4382

This map only really has 3 safe R seats,  although in practice Elise Stefanik would be safe anyway.

[lfromnj]

Is there any valid reason why NY Dems wouldn't link Syracuse with Ithaca?  I'm not really seeing this as difficult or ugly.   It actually works out nice and gives a Utica district kinda sorta similar to the current NY-22.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b248e051-4d27-44b1-9bcc-faa6287d4382

This map only really has 3 safe R seats,  although in practice Elise Stefanik would be safe anyway.

Unless you cut a seat in NYC you will need to push everyone else north, so Delgado would need Ithaca and Binghamton,rather you throw Katko against Brindisi .

[Sol]

Is there any valid reason why NY Dems wouldn't link Syracuse with Ithaca?  I'm not really seeing this as difficult or ugly.   It actually works out nice and gives a Utica district kinda sorta similar to the current NY-22.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b248e051-4d27-44b1-9bcc-faa6287d4382

This map only really has 3 safe R seats,  although in practice Elise Stefanik would be safe anyway.

FWIW it's looking increasingly likely that NY will lose two seats, not one.

[Mr.Phips]

Is there any valid reason why NY Dems wouldn't link Syracuse with Ithaca?  I'm not really seeing this as difficult or ugly.   It actually works out nice and gives a Utica district kinda sorta similar to the current NY-22.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b248e051-4d27-44b1-9bcc-faa6287d4382

This map only really has 3 safe R seats,  although in practice Elise Stefanik would be safe anyway.

Unless you cut a seat in NYC you will need to push everyone else north, so Delgado would need Ithaca and Binghamton,rather you throw Katko against Brindisi .

I think Delgado would be fine with that.  He basically gets back Maurice Hinchey’s old district.

[lfromnj]

Oh don't forget to give the Buffalo seat Niagara, Otherwise it could flip in a R wave.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh don't forget to give the Buffalo seat Niagara, Otherwise it could flip in a R wave.

More like those two cities are just paired for COI reasons, rather than wave proofing - Buffalo still doesn't have all the red turf beyond the first ring suburbs that makes the county potentially competitive in a good GOP year where they build on Trump. However, since they are paired for COi reasons, you shouldn't break the pairing.

[lfromnj]

Heres my upstate NY D protection map with 25 seats
Blue = Buffalo seat same as before Likely/Safe D  although trending R moderately.
Green = Chris Collins old seat and is Titanium R now.
Purple = Rochestor seat and should be likely D. Took an arm out to Geneva just keep it relatively safe.
Red = tom reeds new seat and should be Safe R. Central NY sink.
Yellow = 3 whole counties + precints in Oswego. I think Clinton won it very narrowly as she won those 3 counties. Combines Brindisi and Katko. Tossup. Probably the toughest fight for Democrats.
Brown = Stefanik sink.
Then Blue Albany Likely/Safe D.
Turqoise is Delgado getting pushed around a bit for what I think is a Clinton seat, he should be much more shored up here with Ithaca.( tilt D without Delgado but Lean/likely with him)
Light blue = Maloney's seat(Lean D without Maloney, likely D with him)
Pink is whoever replaced Lowey. Safe D

So anyway the biggest risk is Brindisi who actually gets a much better seat but now has to face a very tough opponent.

[Mr.Phips]

Heres my upstate NY D protection map with 25 seats
Blue = Buffalo seat same as before Likely/Safe D  although trending R moderately.
Green = Chris Collins old seat and is Titanium R now.
Purple = Rochestor seat and should be likely D. Took an arm out to Geneva just keep it relatively safe.
Red = tom reeds new seat and should be Safe R. Central NY sink.
Yellow = 3 whole counties + precints in Oswego. I think Clinton won it very narrowly as she won those 3 counties. Combines Brindisi and Katko. Tossup. Probably the toughest fight for Democrats.
Brown = Stefanik sink.
Then Blue Albany Likely/Safe D.
Turqoise is Delgado getting pushed around a bit for what I think is a Clinton seat, he should be much more shored up here with Ithaca.( tilt D without Delgado but Lean/likely with him)
Light blue = Maloney's seat(Lean D without Maloney, likely D with him)
Pink is whoever replaced Lowey. Safe D

So anyway the biggest risk is Brindisi who actually gets a much better seat but now has to face a very tough opponent.

I think something like this is actually quite likely.  I’d think if Brindisi survives 2020, he’d be happy here as he overperforms in Oneida and Katko is left with the one county he didn’t carry in 2018 (Onondaga).