2020 New York Redistricting
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Sol
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« Reply #150 on: December 08, 2020, 12:33:03 PM »

Can whoever made this thread so wide undo that? Making it a little unreadable.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #151 on: December 08, 2020, 01:00:09 PM »



I'm going to start off at the end, with the western NY districts, which I'm here defining as Syracuse, Binghamton and points west. There are thirty districts here, which I assigned to the following groupings:

  • Oswego/Onondaga/Madison: 5
  • Broom/Tioga/Cortland/Tompkins: 4
  • Cayuga/Seneca/Schuyler: 1
  • Chemung/Steuben/Yates/Ontario/Wayne: 3
  • Monroe/Livingston/Wyoming/Genesee: 7
  • Orleans/Niagara: 2
  • Erie: 7
  • Allegany/Cattaraugus: 1
  • Chautauqua: 1

These aren't the only possible groupings and I did consider some alternatives. In particular, Ontario/Yates; Wayne/Seneca and Cayuga/Cortland all just about fall within 5% of the acceptable population deviation, but the issue is that they're all at the bottom end of the range and it makes it really tricky to get the districts in the Southern Tier small enough without splitting counties and municipalities all over the place. Chemung/Tioga is also a pairing that works, but only if you slice up Tompkins County in a distinctly ugly fashion.

I think most of the groupings are fairly easily to justify, except for the Wayne-Chemung group. However, whilst that's ugly taken as a whole, I think each of the districts works reasonably well on its own as representing a distinct community (Rochester exurbs/Finger Lakes/Elmira-Corning) so I'm happy enough with it.

Syracuse area



AD-118: Oswego County and parts of Cicero Township in Onondaga to the north of State Highway 31. Splitting a township wasn't ideal, but all the ones that border Oswego County are too large to go in in their entirety. R+5.4.

AD-119: Northern suburbs of Syracuse, plus a tiny slice of the city proper (which is slightly too large to remain intact.) D+3.8.

AD-120: The rest of Syracuse. Only 50% white by total population, but nearly 60% white by CVAP so can't realistically be called a minority opportunity seat. D+29.5.

AD-121: The western portions of Onondaga County. The rural parts are moderately-red, the Syracuse suburbs are light-blue and they average out to produce a toss-up seat at a presidential level, though in practice Onondaga is still pretty Republican down-ballot. R+0.8.

AD-122: Eastern Onondaga and Madison. Similar to AD-121, except the suburban portions are slightly more diverse and Democratic, and that's enough to give it a mildly Dem PVI. D+1.0.

Binghamton and Ithaca

AD-126: Tioga County, most of Cortland County and the rural portions of Broome County. R+11.0.

AD-127: Binghamtom and the surrounding townships containing part of its urban area (Dickinson, Vestal and Union.) D+4.6.

AD-128: This is deliberately drawn as a college district, so as well as Ithaca it also takes in SUNY Cortland. D+16.8.

Finger Lakes

AD-129: By splitting Steuben north-south, you can get a decent Elmira-Corning district, which you can't do if you keep Steuben whole. R+8.7.

AD-130: Yates, northern Steuben and the bulk of Ontario County. R+8.3.

AD-131: Cayuga, Seneca and Schuyler counties. Voted for Obama fairly comfortably in 2012, but Trump won by about 7000 votes this year. R+3.1.

AD-132: Wayne County and the northern tier of Ontario County townships. The latter are a little less red than the former, though not enough to make it remotely competitive. R+9.1.

Rochester area



AD-133: Perinton, Penfield and Webster townships in eastern Monroe. D+0.03 and the first two townships actually swung towards Clinton in 2016, so probably a little more Democratic-inclined by now than that indicates.

AD-134: Townships south of Rochester and east of the Genesee river. Most of this territory is reasonably marginal, but Brighton township makes this safely Democratic. D+9.6.

AD-135: An inverted-C district, made up of Irondequoit and the whiter bits of Rochester. D+17.8.

AD-136: Western, central and inner-northern Rochester, taking in most of the black and Hispanic residents of the city (by total population, whites are only the third largest group here.) Black-majority. D+38.5.

AD-137: Stretches from Greece, on Rochester's north-western boundary, to the Orleans County boundary. The territory covers goes from being Republican-leaning to staunchly Republican (and this is the bit of the county that swung hardest to Trump in 2016). R+5.7.

AD-138: South-western Monroe and northern Livingston. The former is one of the more conservative bits of its county, the latter is the most liberal portion of its county, which means both parts vote more or less the same way. R+3.7.

AD-139: Genesee and Wyoming Counties and the bulk of Livingston. If it wasn't for southern Staten Island and Borough Park, this would be the most conservative district in the state. R+17.6.

Orleans and Niagara

AD-140: The entirety of Orleans County and around three quarters of the land area of Niagara County. R+13.3.

AD-141: Niagara Falls, North Tonawanda and their hinterland. Not quite the most Democratic district you could draw in Niagara County (technically you could draw a Lockport-Niagara Falls district that Biden narrowly won) but it's pretty close. R+2.0.

Erie area



AD-142: Grand Island, Tonawanda and a little bit of north-east Buffalo. Technically you can squeeze Buffalo into two whole districts, but this does a better job of keeping other municipalities in the county whole. It also burnishes the Democratic margin slightly, though even without it this would still lean D. D+2.4.

AD-143: Technically Amherst is large enough to stand alone, but if you do that it causes knock-on problems elsewhere. So this district grabs around 10k electors from Clarence to make up the numbers, which also makes it a little more marginal. D+1.1.

AD-144: The Erie black-majority district. You could increase the black percentage a lot more, but it's not necessary so I prioritise compactness. D+37.6.

AD-145: Lackawanna, South Buffalo and the Lakeshore. D+21.6.

AD-146: Cheektowaga and West Seneca. A classic rust-belt swing district, which went Obama-Trump-Biden. D+0.2.

AD-147: Eastern Erie County. Securely conservative. R+13.1.

AD-148: Cattaraugus and Allegheny Counties. R+15.6.

AD-149: South-western Erie County. The northern townships here are swingy, but the southern ones are Republican enough to keep this from becoming competitive. R+7.0.

AD-150: Chautauqua County is the only county that's exactly the right size for a single district. R+9.7.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #152 on: December 10, 2020, 05:45:15 AM »

Alternative arrangement for Erie County, which only splits Buffalo once and Amherst once. Biden won all but one district and the south Buffalo district will probably be minority-majority by 2030, so Democrats would find much to like here:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e6c051e1-357f-47f4-a766-e55a4b6d19b7

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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #153 on: December 10, 2020, 09:07:25 AM »



Next up, northern NY, the Mohawk Valley and the Albany area. 16 districts in this group, in the following combinations:

  • Delaware/Greene/Schoharie: 1
  • Columbia/Rensselaer/Albany: 4
  • Schenectady/Montgomery/Fulton: 2
  • Washington/Saratoga/Warren/Hamilton/Essex: 3
  • Clinton/Franklin: 1
  • St Lawrence/Jefferson/Lewis: 2
  • Chenango/Otsego/Herkimer/Oneida: 3

Alternate county combinations are possible, but the only one that I think merits further investigation is combining Albany and Saratoga and throwing the rest of their respective groups together, so that you don't have any districts crossing the Hudson.

Mohawk Valley

AD-125: Chenango County, Otsego County and most of Herkimer County. A bit of a leftovers district, if I'm honest. R+7.9.

AD-124: Utica, some of its suburbs, and towns along the Mohawk as far as Herkimer. I would have preferred to keep it solely in Oneida County, but doing that makes AD-123 look too weird. Somewhat marginal. R+3.0.

AD-123: The rest of Oneida County. R+12.8.

The North Country

AD-117: Lewis County and the bulk of Jefferson County. Watertown is the largest settlement here and is somewhat marginal, but the rest of this district was firmly Republican even before 2016. R+9.2.

AD-116: St. Lawrence County and north of Jefferson County. Voted strongly for Obama in 2012, but swung hard towards Trump in 2016 and that looks to have continued in 2020. R+1.15 but these days significantly redder than that implies.

AD-115: Franklin and Clinton Counties. Went for Trump in 2016, but this district seems to have trended back to the Democrats in 2020. D+4.9, though given Republican strength downballot it's probably more of a toss-up in the Assembly.

AD-114: Essex County, Warren County, Hamilton County and northern Saratoga County. Essex County leans Democratic, Warren County is finely balanced and Hamilton and northern Saratoga will push this into the Republican column in most years. R+3.2.

AD-113: The entirety of Washington County, plus Saratoga Springs and points east. In 2020, the latter narrowly outvoted the former leading to a Biden victory. R+1.2.

AD-112: Southern and western Saratoga County. Seems to be trending somewhat Democratic and Biden won this by about 4000 votes, but still fundamentally a marginal seat. I suspect a Democratic gerrymander would try to throw Saratoga Springs in here to guarantee one seat in the area. R+2.7.

Capital Region



AD-111: Montgomery and Fulton Counties and the town of Glenville from Schenectady County, using the Mohawk as the southern boundary. R+8.7.

AD-110: The rest of Schenectady County. D+6.

AD-109: This seat combines Troy and northern Rensselaer County with Watervliet, Cohoes, Green Island and about half of the town of Colonie from Albany County. Whilst it is a trans-Hudson seat, the two portions of the district have good links and are fairly similar to one another. D+4.4.

AD-108: Most of the land area of Albany County. D+4.8.

AD-107: Albany and the town of Bethlehem. D+25.4.

AD-106: Columbia County and southern Rensselaer. D+1.3 and would appear to be trending more Democratic.

AD-105: Delaware, Schoharie and Greene Counties. R+11.9.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #154 on: December 11, 2020, 05:58:27 AM »



Moving on to the Hudson Valley, which gets 18 districts, in the following groups:

  • Sullivan/Ulster: 2
  • Dutchess/Putnam: 3
  • Orange: 3
  • Westchester/Rockland: 10

In terms of groupings, Westchester definitely needs a partner. Conceivably you could put it with Putnam instead, then group Orange, Sullivan and Rockland, but you can't pair Ulster and Dutchess for a whole number of seats so you'd have to combine both with areas to the north. I'm still not wild about a district covering both sides of the Tappan Zee, but I think the alternative is messier.

Hudson Valley

AD-104: Sullivan County and southern Ulster County. The 2020 township results for Ulster County aren't up yet, but I suspect Trump held on here. R+2.2.

AD-103: The rest of Ulster County. D+9.9.

AD-102: This district stretches along the Hudson from Poughkeepsie to Rhinebeck. Ended up as something of a Democratic pack, which was a consequence of most of the Dutchess County's major roads running north-south and the populations of its various townships. D+7.8.

AD-101: The eastern end of Dutchess County, with the awkward edition of outer suburbs of Poughkeepsie. R+7.9.

AD-100: Putnam County, plus Beacon and Fishkill. There aren't enough Democratic votes in the latter to outvote the former. R+5.2.

AD-99: Orange County is the right size for three whole districts, and this is the one covering Newburgh. D+1.5.

AD-98: And this is the Middletown district. R+1.5.

AD-97: And this one takes in Kiryas Joel and the south of the county. R+4.7.

Westchester and Rockland



AD-96: This district is co-extensive with the town of Ramapo. D+1.4.

AD-95: The towns of Haverstraw, Stony Point and enough of Clarkstown to make the numbers work. D+2.2.

AD-94: North-west Westchester. There are enough Democratic votes in Peekskill to make this fairly secure, even without trends. D+3.9.

AD-93: North-east Westchester, Mount Kisco, Ossinning and the Pleasantville area from Mount Pleasant. Looks uglier than it actually is if you account for where the population is. D+11.0.

AD-92: Eastern Westchester, along the Connecticut border. 25% Hispanic by total population, but only 16% by CVAP. D+8.2.

AD-91: White Plains, Scarsdale and eastern portions of the town of Greenburgh. Fairly close to being minority-majority by total population. D+19.9.

AD-90: This is the district that crosses the Tappan Zee, and it contains portions of three separate towns (plus another in its entirety.) That's got more to do with the large size of Westchester towns, though - on the ground its borders do follow settlement boundaries reasonably well. D+8.7.

AD-89: Technically you could draw two seats just using Yonkers and Mount Vernon, but the most likely outcome is that you'd produce two white-plurality seats, so I opted to group them with New Rochelle and some smaller municipalities. This is the western Yonkers seat. By CVAP it's 35% white, 37% Hispanic and 23% black. That might not quite be enough to perform as of today, but by total population it's 46% Hispanic so it should do by the end of the decade. D+23.7.

AD-88: Eastern Yonkers and northern New Rochelle. 72% white by CVAP. D+4.0.

AD-87: Mount Vernon and southern New Rochelle. 46% black by total population and CVAP, which is comfortably enough to make this perform for VRA purposes. D+29.3.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #155 on: December 11, 2020, 11:01:03 PM »
« Edited: December 11, 2020, 11:32:30 PM by Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/0919aa66-d80b-4aad-81c4-a23470ff22ee

A non-partisan 26 seats map I made.
This incorporates a Southern Brooklyn CD and pushes the 4th into black-plurality status. I was adamant on having just one seat crossing from NYC to LI. I made sure to preserve a black-majority CD wholely within Brooklyn, and the 11th was designed to be as non-white as possible. 12 is a "white sink". 7 is made both more Latino and less county-splitting. 13 is a district finely divided between Blacks, Whites, and Latinos, and could elect someone from each group. 14 is a safe Latino CD, while 15 has barely any Whites and could elect either a Black or a Latino.

In Upstate NY, I found combinations that allowed me to cut down on overall county splits. 23 becomes a whole 4 counties. No counties are shared between the new 20th and new 21st. The 21st is sort of a "leftovers" seat, taking in all of Sullivan County that the 18th couldn't take, all of the Capital Region-adjucant areas that the 19th couldn't take, and most of the Mohawk Valley. I maintained compact districts centered on Buffalo and Rochester.

18 CDs have a D+ PVI, and 8 CDs have a R+ PVI. The Orange-Sullivan-Rockland CD is closest to EVEN, at just D+0.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #156 on: December 12, 2020, 04:20:43 AM »

I managed to find a new arrangement for Upstate for the Assembly which minimises municipality splits and eliminates some of the more awkward districts I'd drawn: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9e483f55-2dd7-419c-aad2-9fce0ebf24c1

The downsides are that Syracuse is split 50:50 between districts (though that could theoretically be eliminated by swapping territory between 123 and 124 if you wanted); Oneida County is split four ways; and that 95 is technically not quite contiguous by road (because the on-ramp for the Bear Mountain Bridge is in Orange County) but those are all pretty minor issues. Overall I'm much happier with this version.
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Sol
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« Reply #157 on: December 12, 2020, 11:56:56 AM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/0919aa66-d80b-4aad-81c4-a23470ff22ee

A non-partisan 26 seats map I made.
This incorporates a Southern Brooklyn CD and pushes the 4th into black-plurality status. I was adamant on having just one seat crossing from NYC to LI. I made sure to preserve a black-majority CD wholely within Brooklyn, and the 11th was designed to be as non-white as possible. 12 is a "white sink". 7 is made both more Latino and less county-splitting. 13 is a district finely divided between Blacks, Whites, and Latinos, and could elect someone from each group. 14 is a safe Latino CD, while 15 has barely any Whites and could elect either a Black or a Latino.

In Upstate NY, I found combinations that allowed me to cut down on overall county splits. 23 becomes a whole 4 counties. No counties are shared between the new 20th and new 21st. The 21st is sort of a "leftovers" seat, taking in all of Sullivan County that the 18th couldn't take, all of the Capital Region-adjucant areas that the 19th couldn't take, and most of the Mohawk Valley. I maintained compact districts centered on Buffalo and Rochester.

18 CDs have a D+ PVI, and 8 CDs have a R+ PVI. The Orange-Sullivan-Rockland CD is closest to EVEN, at just D+0.

IIRC it's still possible to draw two Black majority seats in Brooklyn in a not-so-ugly way on just 25 seats, so I doubt cutting one would fly, especially since Meek's district is getting kind of diluted too.
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Torie
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« Reply #158 on: December 12, 2020, 02:19:21 PM »

Assuming NY loses only one seat, the above is a nice map. My local congressman Delgado (NY-19) would hate it however.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #159 on: December 12, 2020, 02:43:31 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/0919aa66-d80b-4aad-81c4-a23470ff22ee

A non-partisan 26 seats map I made.
This incorporates a Southern Brooklyn CD and pushes the 4th into black-plurality status. I was adamant on having just one seat crossing from NYC to LI. I made sure to preserve a black-majority CD wholely within Brooklyn, and the 11th was designed to be as non-white as possible. 12 is a "white sink". 7 is made both more Latino and less county-splitting. 13 is a district finely divided between Blacks, Whites, and Latinos, and could elect someone from each group. 14 is a safe Latino CD, while 15 has barely any Whites and could elect either a Black or a Latino.

In Upstate NY, I found combinations that allowed me to cut down on overall county splits. 23 becomes a whole 4 counties. No counties are shared between the new 20th and new 21st. The 21st is sort of a "leftovers" seat, taking in all of Sullivan County that the 18th couldn't take, all of the Capital Region-adjucant areas that the 19th couldn't take, and most of the Mohawk Valley. I maintained compact districts centered on Buffalo and Rochester.

18 CDs have a D+ PVI, and 8 CDs have a R+ PVI. The Orange-Sullivan-Rockland CD is closest to EVEN, at just D+0.

IIRC it's still possible to draw two Black majority seats in Brooklyn in a not-so-ugly way on just 25 seats, so I doubt cutting one would fly, especially since Meek's district is getting kind of diluted too.
I essentially turned the 4th into a quasi-black seat and minted a new effectively black seat in the Bronx. This map is hardly negative at all for black influence in New York's congressional delegation.
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Torie
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« Reply #160 on: December 12, 2020, 05:30:48 PM »

Your map may have VRA problems.
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Sol
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« Reply #161 on: December 12, 2020, 06:41:23 PM »


https://davesredistricting.org/join/0919aa66-d80b-4aad-81c4-a23470ff22ee

A non-partisan 26 seats map I made.
This incorporates a Southern Brooklyn CD and pushes the 4th into black-plurality status. I was adamant on having just one seat crossing from NYC to LI. I made sure to preserve a black-majority CD wholely within Brooklyn, and the 11th was designed to be as non-white as possible. 12 is a "white sink". 7 is made both more Latino and less county-splitting. 13 is a district finely divided between Blacks, Whites, and Latinos, and could elect someone from each group. 14 is a safe Latino CD, while 15 has barely any Whites and could elect either a Black or a Latino.

In Upstate NY, I found combinations that allowed me to cut down on overall county splits. 23 becomes a whole 4 counties. No counties are shared between the new 20th and new 21st. The 21st is sort of a "leftovers" seat, taking in all of Sullivan County that the 18th couldn't take, all of the Capital Region-adjucant areas that the 19th couldn't take, and most of the Mohawk Valley. I maintained compact districts centered on Buffalo and Rochester.

18 CDs have a D+ PVI, and 8 CDs have a R+ PVI. The Orange-Sullivan-Rockland CD is closest to EVEN, at just D+0.

IIRC it's still possible to draw two Black majority seats in Brooklyn in a not-so-ugly way on just 25 seats, so I doubt cutting one would fly, especially since Meek's district is getting kind of diluted too.
I essentially turned the 4th into a quasi-black seat and minted a new effectively black seat in the Bronx. This map is hardly negative at all for black influence in New York's congressional delegation.

The VRA isn't about overall minority representation; it's about representation in a certain area. The current map has two Black seats in Brooklyn and one in SE Queens/Hempstead. Your map has one in Brooklyn, one in Bklyn/Queens, and a very diverse coalition seat which isn't really performing in the same way.
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Sol
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« Reply #162 on: December 12, 2020, 06:45:19 PM »

Oh, and dang, the Asian percentage on NY-06 is not so great! I know it's an increase on the current district but it isn't hard at all to get it higher if I'm remembering right.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #163 on: December 14, 2020, 08:16:10 AM »

For NYC and Long Island, it's worth looking at the state assembly quotas by county/borough:

  • Bronx: 11.00 districts
  • Manhattan: 12.48
  • Staten Island: 3.63
  • Brooklyn: 19.89
  • Queens: 17.57
  • Nassau: 10.37
  • Suffolk: 11.38

Obviously, the Bronx can stand alone, but elsewhere there are separate options.

Staten Island needs a partner. Numerically Manhattan works, but a connection via the ferry isn't ideal and whilst you can get 2 districts out of the Financial District and the North Shore, this tends to make it difficult to draw a a minority-majority district on the North Shore. Alternative, you can connect to Brooklyn via the bridge, but that gives you a quota of 23.52 which either means 23 small seats or 24 large ones. You could add in Manhattan to fix that problem, but then you have an extra cross-borough district.

What's more, if you group those three then you either have to squeeze 18 seats out of Queens when there's only the population for 17 and a half, or you have to pair Queens with Long Island. If, on the other hand, you don't put Manhattan in with SI or Brooklyn, then Queens and Manhattan pair nicely.

Finally, both the Long Island counties can theoretically stand alone for 10 and 11 districts respectively, but that forces all the districts to be large and makes it hard to respect town boundaries. You can credibly argue that Long Island towns are mostly too large for this to matter, but that's a rather different methodology to the one I've followed elsewhere. Alternatively, you could pair them for 22 seats (a little smaller than average but not enough to cause many problems) or you could put them (or conceivably just Nassau) in with Queens.

From a Democratic perspective, I think the optimal solution probably gives 10 seats to Nassau, 11 seats to Suffolk, pairs Staten Island and Brooklyn for 24 seats and pairs Manhattan and Queens for 30 seats. The Republican perspective would probably favour assigning 22 seats to Long Island, pairing Staten Island and Brooklyn for 23 seats and pairing Manhattan and Queens. I think the latter is slightly easier to justify, so I've gone with that. YMMV.

So, with that settled, let's turn to Long Island:

Suffolk County



AD-1: The five eastern towns of Suffolk County make a certain amount of sense as a district, but they're just slightly too large for a single district, and given that links between the North and South Forks aren't great, I thought it was easier just to combine those towns with Brookhaven for five districts. This district covers the Hamptons and Moriches. R+0.8, though you could easily flip that by swapping parts of Brookhaven for Shelter Island.

AD-2: This district is made up of the North Fork and areas along the north coast as far west as Sound Beach. R+6.8.

AD-3: A compact district centred on Port Jefferson. R+2.4.

AD-4: This district takes in parts of Brookhaven north of the Long Island Railroad. R+4.5.

AD-5: Another south coast district, stretching from Patchogue to Mastic Beach. R+1.1.

AD-6: Smithtown is slightly too small for a district of its own, but it pairs nicely enough with Islip (other options are available.) This district pairs Islip itself with the east of the town, in order to allow AD-8 to become a minority-majority district. R+10.1.

AD-7: And this is the Smithtown district, with the bits of Islip is grabs serving the same purpose as in AD-6. R+12.9.

AD-8: Hispanic-plurality seat centred on Brentwood and Central Islip. 58.9% Hispanic by population, 46.8% by CVAP. Whites are 25.6% CVAP, blacks are 23.9% CVAP so this ought to perform without trouble. D+28.7.

AD-9: This district combines parts of the towns of Babylon and Islip, running from Bay Shore to Lindenhurst. R+6.9.

AD-10: I wouldn't claim this L-shaped district is lovely, but it is possibly a viable coalition district.  Whites are 53.4% by CVAP (and the whitest parts of this district are pretty red), blacks are 24.7% and Hispanics are 17.3%. D+10.0.

AD-11: Huntington then pairs with Oyster Bay, North Hempsted and Glen Cove for 6 districts. This district contains the north and east of the town, including parts of Huntington itself. R+4.0.

AD-12: And this is the cross-county district, which combines minority-heavy bits of Huntington with Plainview in Nassau County. D+3.7.

Nassau County



AD-13: Southern Oyster Bay - the Peter King district, if you will. R+13.2, the most Republican district in Long Island.

AD-14: The remaining three districts are all orientated north-south, although now that I think about it arguably an east-west orientation would be better, both in terms of compactness and producing minority-influence seats - I will probably revise this later. This district stretches from Hicksville to Glen Cove. R+2.1.

AD-15: Westbury and the Cow Neck Pensinsula. Only 67% white CVAP, but the minority population is split equally between blacks, Asians and Hispanics. D+6.6.

AD-16: Mineola, New Hyde Park and Great Neck. D+1.3.

AD-17: Hempstead and the City of Long Beach are covered by six largeish districts. This one is designed to absorb heavily-white areas near the LIR and is accordingly relatively Republican - R+5.7.

AD-18: Levittown and the southern shore of the town as far as Merrick. R+8.1.

AD-19: This Freeport-Baldwin-Rockville district is rapidly diversifying, but for now it's still white-majority. D+11.2.

AD-20: Whereas this Hempstead-Uniondale district is black-majority by CVAP, though by total population it's 39% Hispanic and less than 45% black. D+29.8.

AD-21: This Elmont-Valley Stream district is designed as a black-opportunity district and is plurality black by total population. CVAP is 39% white, 30% black with growing Hispanic and Asian populations. To make a stronger district you'd either have to cross the NYC boundary or send a tendril towards Hempstead. D+15.0.

AD-22: Long Beach and the Five Towns. Internal connectivity could be better, but this was a leftovers district and by that metric it's good enough. R+3.5, which is entirely down to the Orthodox communities in Cedarhurst, Woodsmere and Lawrence having voted Republican by margins that wouldn't be out of place in Borough Park.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #164 on: December 15, 2020, 05:15:05 AM »

Here's an amended version for Huntington and northern Nassau:



The affected districts are 11, 12, 14, 15 and 16. 14 and 15 become North Shore-focused districts; 16 fits neatly between the LIR and the Long Island Expressway (and becomes minority-majority by total population); 12 is now a reasonably compact Hicksville-Plainsview district.

New PVIs:

11: R+4.3
12: D+2.9
14: R+0.3
15: D+3.6
16: D+3.6

I also played around with an alternative scheme for Hempstead in which 21 took in the Five Towns rather than Franklin Square, since white voters in the former are more Republican and this means it's more likely the district might perform. In the rejig this forced, 19 became minority-majority but at the cost of 20 becoming white-plurality. Which I could see working as a method of maximising Democratic performance, but I'm not sure it really improves minority representation so I rejected it.
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Torie
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« Reply #165 on: December 15, 2020, 11:22:45 AM »

Interesting article as to how the Trump show played out in NYC, assembly seat by assembly seat.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/12/10/inside-trumps-surprising-new-york-city-surge-1344705
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #166 on: December 16, 2020, 05:22:35 AM »

We now come to NYC, and I should probably say a word about my methods here. Whereas elsewhere in the state I prioritised compactness, that was primarily a consequence of those areas being overwhelmingly white (and where there was a large enough minority community to control a district, they're generally geographically concentrated anyway.) Here, on the other hand, the VRA is almost constantly in play.

As I was aiming to maximise minority representation and to avoid packing (even where the pack has very compact lines), a certain amount of salamanders are unavoidable. I tried not to do this more than necessary and to avoid tendrils narrower than a couple of blocks, but the resulting districts are still much less compact than elsewhere in the state. Additionally, isolated white neighbourhoods and minority communities which aren't large enough to form a majority in a district of their own often got the short end of the stick. Some of this could have been averted if I'd been more willing to draw districts that were only 45%+ CVAP, but I thought it better to err on the safe side even if it meant uglier districts.

I also didn't distinguish between different Asian, Hispanic or black communities. It may therefore be that these arrangements unfairly privilege Chinese communities against South Indian communities or African-American communities against Caribbean communities, to pick two examples at random. There I can only plead ignorance.

South-East Queens



AD-23: The Rockaway Peninsula is exactly the right size for a district. This is black plurality by population, but very narrowly white plurality by CVAP (38.4% vs. 37.6%.) Given that the white vote here is pretty Republican, I strongly suspect this will elect a black candidate. On that basis, if you aren't combining Queens and Nassau then there's pretty much no reason not to draw this seat. D+18.2.

AD-24: Contains JFK airport and various communities surrounding it. 54% black by CVAP. Howard Beach is added in to minimise packing and to make it more like AD-25 will perform. D+33.7.

AD-25: Ozone Park, Woodhaven and Richmond Hill. Total population is 17% W, 49% H, 27% A, but CVAP is 24% W, 44% H, 25% A. Would probably elect the candidate of choice of Hispanic voters, but I wouldn't stake money on it. D+27.9.

AD-26: An ugly snake stretching from Laurelton to the outskirts of Ozone Park. Ideally you'd want 26 and 27 to be divided east-west rather than north-south, but doing so eliminates a black-majority district. D+43.5.

AD-27: St. Albans-Morris Park. 64% black by CVAP, making it the blackest district on this map outside Brooklyn.

AD-28: Cambria Heights to the Grand Central Parkway. Surprisingly neat-looking all things considered. D+40.8.

North-East Queens



AD-29: Drawing three Asian-majority districts by total population in NE Queens isn't hard, but it usually means that all are white plurality by CVAP. So in order to shore up 31 and 32, this district is Asian-plurality by total population (47% vs. 35% white) but white plurality by CVAP (42% vs. 40%.) D+16.6.

AD-30: Takes in the whiter bits of NE Queens, plus College Point. The most Republican district in Queens, but still D+6.0.

AD-31: Asian-majority district in Flushing (65% by total population, 52% by CVAP.) D+19.5.

AD-32: Not quite Asian-majority, but a very strong plurality (48% vs. 21% white by CVAP) which is good enough. D+26.6.

AD-33: Forest Hills/Kew Gardens/Kew Gardens Hills. White-majority by CVAP. D+17.0.

North-West Queens



AD-34: This district, stretching from Forest Hills to Maspeth, is designed as a white-sink in order to try and make 35 into a Hispanic-opportunity district. D+7.3.

AD-35: A district centred on plurality-Hispanic areas near the Brooklyn border. Unfortunately, you run out of those quickly, which means this district is white-plurality by CVAP (47% vs. 41%.) D+23.8.

AD-36: Asian-majority district extending from Elmhurst to Jackson Heights via Woodside. D+28.1.

AD-37: Hispanic-majority Corona/Jackson Heights district. D+35.4.

AD-38: Hispanic-majority East Elmhurst/Ditmars Steinway district. D+33.8.

AD-39: A compact Astoria-based district. D+32.3.

AD-40: 60% of this district's population lives in Queens, around Long Island City and Sunnyside. The remaining 40% is in the Upper East Side and given differential turnout rates in primaries it probably controls the district. D+30.6.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #167 on: December 29, 2020, 01:57:35 AM »

Fair NY map:


NYC Inset:


NY01—R+5
NY02—D+2
NY03—R+8
NY04—D+32 (55% black)
NY05—D+22 (40% asian by CVAP, 47% by total population)
NY06—D+41 (60% black)
NY07—R+5
NY08—D+3 (Going into this I assumed there'd be enough republicans for both an R-leaning southern Brooklyn district as well as an R-leaning Staten Island district, but nope, even if I give the latter the GOP enclave around the naval yard.)
NY09—D+44 (43% black by CVAP, 47% by total population)
NY10—D+27 (38% hispanic by CVAP, 47% by total population)
NY11—D+34
NY12—D+35
NY13—D+44 (55% hispanic by CVAP, 62% by total population)
NY14—D+20 (MajMin district; by CVAP it's 43% white, 21% hispanic, 28% black; by total population it's 37% white, 25% hispanic, 31% black)
NY15—D+37 (52% hispanic by CVAP, 58% by total population
NY16—D+8
NY17—R+2
NY18—D+6
NY19—R+2
NY20—D+2
NY21—R+4
NY22—D+6
NY23—R+4
NY24—D+7
NY25—R+11
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Thunder98
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« Reply #168 on: February 17, 2021, 11:05:14 PM »

This is a super Dem gerrymandered 22-3 map I made which in this scenario NY loses 2 seats instead of one. One GOP sink in the SW part of upstate NY and 2 slightly R seats in LI.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/33577eb8-1599-4c16-a75c-4d2008e6bf20



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Stuart98
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« Reply #169 on: February 18, 2021, 11:43:50 AM »

This is a super Dem gerrymandered 22-3 map I made which in this scenario NY loses 2 seats instead of one. One GOP sink in the SW part of upstate NY and 2 slightly R seats in LI.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/33577eb8-1599-4c16-a75c-4d2008e6bf20




That Syracuse district should easily re-elect Katko right? Or does he live in another district on this map?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #170 on: February 18, 2021, 11:45:17 AM »

This is a super Dem gerrymandered 22-3 map I made which in this scenario NY loses 2 seats instead of one. One GOP sink in the SW part of upstate NY and 2 slightly R seats in LI.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/33577eb8-1599-4c16-a75c-4d2008e6bf20




That Syracuse district should easily re-elect Katko right? Or does he live in another district on this map?
Which Syracuse district? Tongue
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Torie
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« Reply #171 on: March 05, 2021, 07:02:44 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2021, 07:06:01 PM by Torie »

For upstate NY, here is my Katco and Brindisi are kings map.



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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #172 on: March 06, 2021, 09:26:22 AM »
« Edited: March 06, 2021, 11:18:12 AM by Congrats, Griffin! »

Anyone else think concerns about their post-redistricting districts is the real reason that Zeldin, Reed, and even Stefanik are suddenly toying with running for Governor?  Reed is the most obviously vulnerable of the three in that it seems like a widely agreed upon given that his district will be merged with that of Chris Jacobs.  Reed has had at least one real scare against an unheralded C-lister so he probably isn’t the strongest incumbent and might well have concluded that he’d lose such a primary.

There have been maps showing that you can easily turn Andrew Gabarino and Lee Zeldin’s seats into a from two R-leaning seats into a Safe R and a D-leaning seat.  Both incumbents seem well-liked by the local Republican big-wigs, but maybe Zeldin thinks he’ll be at a disadvantage due to the Safe R district’s composition and/or that Gaberino will get more institutional support in an incumbent vs. incumbent primary.  He’s definitely acting like someone looking for a possible escape hatch.

I have seen at least one map showing that you can definitely draw Stefanik out with some creative line-drawing w/o making a dummymander, upsetting Dem incumbents, or conceding a seat elsewhere.  However, the map looks pretty ugly.  That said, Stefanik has become a high-profile Trumpist and is clearly angling for House leadership, so it could be pretty tempting to draw her out if possible.  However, NY Democrats may prefer a cleaner map that leaves the GQP with three seats to an ugly one that leaves them with only two and Stefanik has seemed less enthusiastic about potentially running for Governor than Reed or even Zeldin.

So what?  Well, this kinda makes me wonder if word is starting to come down the grapevine that NY Democrats are planning to play hardball with congressional redistricting and target folks like Zeldin and Stefanik in addition to the more obvious goners like Malliotakis.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #173 on: March 06, 2021, 10:14:16 AM »

It must be. The same exact thing is happening in Florida with Murphy and Crist. Reed can’t be delusional enough to think he would win.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #174 on: March 06, 2021, 04:10:47 PM »

Anyone else think concerns about their post-redistricting districts is the real reason that Zeldin, Reed, and even Stefanik are suddenly toying with running for Governor?  Reed is the most obviously vulnerable of the three in that it seems like a widely agreed upon given that his district will be merged with that of Chris Jacobs.  Reed has had at least one real scare against an unheralded C-lister so he probably isn’t the strongest incumbent and might well have concluded that he’d lose such a primary.

There have been maps showing that you can easily turn Andrew Gabarino and Lee Zeldin’s seats into a from two R-leaning seats into a Safe R and a D-leaning seat.  Both incumbents seem well-liked by the local Republican big-wigs, but maybe Zeldin thinks he’ll be at a disadvantage due to the Safe R district’s composition and/or that Gaberino will get more institutional support in an incumbent vs. incumbent primary.  He’s definitely acting like someone looking for a possible escape hatch.

I have seen at least one map showing that you can definitely draw Stefanik out with some creative line-drawing w/o making a dummymander, upsetting Dem incumbents, or conceding a seat elsewhere.  However, the map looks pretty ugly.  That said, Stefanik has become a high-profile Trumpist and is clearly angling for House leadership, so it could be pretty tempting to draw her out if possible.  However, NY Democrats may prefer a cleaner map that leaves the GQP with three seats to an ugly one that leaves them with only two and Stefanik has seemed less enthusiastic about potentially running for Governor than Reed or even Zeldin.

So what?  Well, this kinda makes me wonder if word is starting to come down the grapevine that NY Democrats are planning to play hardball with congressional redistricting and target folks like Zeldin and Stefanik in addition to the more obvious goners like Malliotakis.

Stefanik is most likely to get an even more Republican district that packs pretty much every Republican north of Poughkeepsie and east of Syracuse into her district.
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