2020 New York Redistricting

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1285190840265183234?s=20

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1285190850566381569?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1285190840265183234?s=20

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1285190850566381569?s=20

Why at 63? That's such a weird number to cap it at.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1285190840265183234?s=20

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1285190850566381569?s=20

Why at 63? That's such a weird number to cap it at.

Its the present number. It like most legislatures are odd so as to prevent ties.

[EastAnglianLefty]

In previous cycles the numbers had been increased from 61 to 62 and from 62 to 63 to assist Republicans in shorting up marginal seats. Very much a case of bolting the stable door after the horse has bolted, though.

[Sol]

I figured I'd take a shot at fairly redistricting NY with 25 districts. Here's the link.





Didn't love this Long Island, but the population shifts in this area are such that you're kind of forced to draw the 3rd district deep into NE Queens, which kind of interferes with drawing an Asian influence district in the Flushing area. IMO it's better to take the Black and Asian district deep into Nassau.



Here's the city, and another area I'm a bit uncomfortable with. Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten work well I hope--the 6th is only slightly less Latino than the current 7th, and I think the "White Gentrifiers plus Hasids district" makes a decent amount of sense. The 11th takes in predominantly Asian communities in Sunset Park and Southeast Brooklyn. But I'm not sure if the Harlem, Upper East Side, and NE Queens makes much sense. Would be funny to see AOC win again and again in a district including parts of the Upper East Side though. I also don't know the Bronx too well though, so feel free to correct.





Had originally drawn the Rochester district into Ontario County, but this way lets you do it in whole counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

my take on 25 district NY

comments:

• Not sure how much town borders matter in Long Island, but I have NY-04 entirely within Hempstead
• Sol's point about NY-03 taking so much of Queens harming the Asian character of NY-06 is very valid
• NY-05 cannot remain majority black but that's okay - only group that comes remotely close though is Latinos, and they are barely any threat to the black hold on the seat
• NY-06, by careful precinct selection, can continue to serve the interest of Asian opportunity seat - in fact, I made a version even more Asian than its current iteration
• The leftovers pretty much have to go with Latino areas of Brooklyn right next door; the current NY-07 cannot continue to exist without messing up other areas, so in practice the Puerto Rican nature of the current seat is partially sacrificed to keep it Latino
• I largely unified the Hasidic areas in Southern Brooklyn under an AA seat; it was the least I could do
• The side effect of the rest of Queens being thrown in with Brooklyn results in an all-Manhattan seat centered on the borough south of Harlem and north of Lower Manhattan
• The essential character of the 15th is preserved with a loss of 2 seats
• Eye-popping how much the Rockland CD expands - swallowing all but 27k or so of the county not in the Yonkers CD
• The 18th shifts Republican due to expanding north and west
• The 21st shifts Republican partially due to Syracuse being less of the seat, and particularly due to it swallowing about 90% of Oneida County
• The Central Tier-focused 23rd is split in two due to necessity; the new 22nd is a bit Republican-leaning but more winnable than the old 23rd
• I adopted Sol's Rochester CD; it was a no-brainer
• another case of expansion in area - the Buffallo CD
• median seat is 5 points more R than the state as a whole - which isn't out of the ordinary
• the eliminated districts, in practice, are probably the old 7th and the old 22nd

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3909dca6-5fc9-4e63-b637-4f08254c9b79li

[Sol]

The link doesn't work, but I like your map! I think we approached it with pretty similar styles.

I do think it's worth discussing NY-05, which is kind of a difficult district. When drawing my NY-05, I was amazed by how Black it became when I added neighboring towns and Hempstead; it's very easy to draw a VRA-performing district which chops into Long Island. You could probably make it even more compact than mine. With that in mind I wonder if it'd be vulnerable to some kind of legal challenge.

The only other real quibble I'd have is that I think NY-21 might be better served by avoiding Oneida County, since the Mohawk Valley is something of a CoI (should do better with this myself).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The link doesn't work, but I like your map! I think we approached it with pretty similar styles.

I do think it's worth discussing NY-05, which is kind of a difficult district. When drawing my NY-05, I was amazed by how Black it became when I added neighboring towns and Hempstead; it's very easy to draw a VRA-performing district which chops into Long Island. You could probably make it even more compact than mine. With that in mind I wonder if it'd be vulnerable to some kind of legal challenge.

The only other real quibble I'd have is that I think NY-21 might be better served by avoiding Oneida County, since the Mohawk Valley is something of a CoI (should do better with this myself).

The problem is that under 25 districts the North Country and the Mohawk Valley is very hard to both whole in what is an overall a cohesive and logical map. And unlike the North Country, the Mohawk Valley is primed to be split in some way particularly due to the strange shape of Herkimer County and its central location.
Having a district unifying the Mohawk Valley is likely to be a bad thing from a CoI perspective due to the disruption this would make for other areas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

update: it is possible to have a Mohawk Valley seat while preserving the NorthCountry, but the Hudson Valley gets the brunt of the changes. Not to mention, the changes to the Capital Region are kinda problematic.

PVI of CDs 18-25 respectively: D+7, R+2, D+3, R+6, R+3, D+6, R+12, D+8

[EastAnglianLefty]

If you're worried about NY-3 eating into the Asian parts of NY-6, it's perfectly feasible to skirt round it and top the seat up with parts of the Bronx. This will actually tend to allow NY-6 to become more Asian.

If you're considering extending NY-5 further into Long Island, bear in mind that Kathleen Rice lives in Garden City. So it's feasible to make the minority communities on the border with Queens, but it's difficult to add in Hempstead et al. without drawing Rice out of her district.

[Sol]

If you're worried about NY-3 eating into the Asian parts of NY-6, it's perfectly feasible to skirt round it and top the seat up with parts of the Bronx. This will actually tend to allow NY-6 to become more Asian.

If you're considering extending NY-5 further into Long Island, bear in mind that Kathleen Rice lives in Garden City. So it's feasible to make the minority communities on the border with Queens, but it's difficult to add in Hempstead et al. without drawing Rice out of her district.

Oh yeah definitely that would be an issue; my map was intended as a dispatch from a world where NY has a California-style commission.

[lfromnj]

If NY loses 2 or even the expected 1, Biden should appoint some NYC dem to admin, AOC/Velaquez makes the most sense atleast from a redistricting perspective as they aren't VRA seats and they aren't Manhattan(which gets 3 seats for 2 seats worth of pop)

AOC almost certainly doesn't get through a GOP senate so it would have to be Velazquez I guess unless GA runoffs go D.

[Alcibiades]

If NY loses 2 or even the expected 1, Biden should appoint some NYC dem to admin, AOC/Velaquez makes the most sense atleast from a redistricting perspective as they aren't VRA seats and they aren't Manhattan(which gets 3 seats for 2 seats worth of pop)

AOC almost certainly doesn't get through a GOP senate so it would have to be Velazquez I guess unless GA runoffs go D.

Uh, I think there are other reasons why Biden would never pick AOC for an administration job.

[lfromnj]

Anyway this 25 seat map dismantles Velazquez's seat while I think still leaving everyone else their seats other than Brindisi.
Its honestly easier for D's to draw with 25 seats rather than 26. 26 pisses of everyone in NYC basically while 25 just means one has to go. The fair option would be to just cut a Manhattan seat but that isn't happening even though its literally 2 seats of pop but somehow getting 3 representatives





https://davesredistricting.org/join/fbff239f-ca3b-4ad1-8539-3822765d82ca

A lot depends on Mondaire Jones/Ritchie Torres willing to give up a bit of Westchester to Maloney IMO. Also Biden really needs to appoint Velazquez to somewhere as she really is the only seat that can be cut IMO from NYC other than AOC.

2 R leaning seats are flipped to D pvi's, I did what I could with NY01 and NY02 to make one super GOP district and one swing district with a D+2 PVI.
Suozzi is shored up a touch and Rice goes into NYC a bit.
Staten Island is made Safe D at 63% D composite and the Brooklyn part seems inelastic white hipsters.

Shores up Maloney/Delgado by giving  bit of Westchester to the former and Giving Delgado Broome/Tompkins, both have a d+2 PVI, not the greatest but you take what you can get.

Brindisi(I think he wins, gets placed with Katko, don't really know how to help Brindisi more, I guess I could remove the red parts of Onondonga county and give Oswego which he represented more of?)
The 3 counties in this district voted for Clinton by 3000 so maybe Trump won this by a hundred votes?

Rochester/Buffalo get their basically Safe D seats, I removed some red parts of Monroe and took swingier parts in another county though and Buffalo keeps Niagara.


This map would still be quite hard to pass with only a bare 2/3 super majority IMO, they really don't have much to work with, and it really does require cutting an NYC seat to do properly.

Overall 16 Safe D ,3 Lean/Likely D(Delgado/Maloney/Suozzi), 2 tossups(NY02/Brindisi-Katko), and 4 Safe R.
If 2022 isn't a R wave D's could still keep 21 seats and R's would be losing 3 seats.



26 seats is actually much harder to work with, with 26 seats you still keep upstate about the same with NY 22 being the cut seat but the problem is NYC still keeps its seats but Torres/Jones/AOC get pushed pretty far north which could really cause problems

[Torie]

Assuming Tenney wins and thus NY-22 can be removed from the map, and the Dems can draw a map that pleases them without looking too ridiculous upstate, here is one approach. The incumbent, Mr. Jones (Rockland County), who is very progressive, might not like it though. The map assumes NY loses two CD seats, down to 25, and as I moved lines around from my non partisan map, I was just making estimates. The lines would have to move a tad from NY-16 north excluding the three CD's in western NY that I did not play with.

[S019]

Assuming Tenney wins and thus NY-22 can be removed from the map, and the Dems can draw a map that pleases them without looking too ridiculous upstate, here is one approach. The incumbent, Mr. Jones (Rockland County), who is very progressive, might not like it though. The map assumes the Dems lose two seats, down to 25, and as I moved lines around from my non partisan map, I was just making estimates. The lines would have to move a tad from NY-16 north excluding the three CD's in western NY that I did not play with.

It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko

[Torie]

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

[Mr.Phips]

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

[Torie]

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making it all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

[Mr.Phips]

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

When has the public ever cared about gerrymandering? Did Republicans lose seats in PA, WI, and MI because they voted for gerrymanders?

[S019]

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

There will also be a legislative gerrymander to shore up those Democrats

[Mr.Phips]

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

There will also be a legislative gerrymander to shore up those Democrats

Yeah especially in the state Senate.  Look for Ulster county to be united rather than split and for Rochester to be split just two ways rather than five (to help the two Dems that picked up seats).  The remaining Republican LI seats probably get packed with more Republicans in order to help incumbent Dems.  Same with Sue Serino’s seat in the Hudson Valley (likely gains Republicans from Harckham’s seat in exchange for Dems).

[Torie]

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

There will also be a legislative gerrymander to shore up those Democrats

Yeah especially in the state Senate.  Look for Ulster county to be united rather than split and for Rochester to be split just two ways rather than five (to help the two Dems that picked up seats).  The remaining Republican LI seats probably get packed with more Republicans in order to help incumbent Dems.  Same with Sue Serino’s seat in the Hudson Valley (likely gains Republicans from Harckham’s seat in exchange for Dems).

Well one way to slow the train down on gerrymandering in NYS is for the Dems to burn the barn down, and make the surviving Pubs highly valuable to collect for their rarity as  objects d'art, and in the one party state, for the Dems to have utterly vicious primaries in many places. My town of course is in the vanguard of this, even without gerrymandering, because well, of the sagacity of the chap who drew the ward map. Ha!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

There will also be a legislative gerrymander to shore up those Democrats

Yeah especially in the state Senate.  Look for Ulster county to be united rather than split and for Rochester to be split just two ways rather than five (to help the two Dems that picked up seats).  The remaining Republican LI seats probably get packed with more Republicans in order to help incumbent Dems.  Same with Sue Serino’s seat in the Hudson Valley (likely gains Republicans from Harckham’s seat in exchange for Dems).

Ironically, it seems Serino has better job security when it is Dems who have the pen in their hand, drawing the lines on the map.

[Mr.Phips]

"It might be better to give Tompkins to Delgado and then give Utica to Katko"

That makes Delgado's seat too elongated and erose and makes it look ridiculous. Stefanick needs the population, and I gave Katko the most Dem node in Oneida.  JMO.

Do Dems really care if the districts look ridiculous?  I see that you gave Delgado Troy in Rensselaer county, which he will like.

Yes, the Troy thing was deliberate. There are certain metrics like compactness and not too many county splits, buried in NY law that may be subject to total finesse and ignore, but even if that is the case, the best gerrymander is the one that does not look like one much. And why would Dems in swing seats want to vote for something that looked hideous, and be branded partisan spear carrier hacks for life, when you get to close to the same place by making all so much more pleasing to the senses?

Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. You might write that down for future reference.

There will also be a legislative gerrymander to shore up those Democrats

Yeah especially in the state Senate.  Look for Ulster county to be united rather than split and for Rochester to be split just two ways rather than five (to help the two Dems that picked up seats).  The remaining Republican LI seats probably get packed with more Republicans in order to help incumbent Dems.  Same with Sue Serino’s seat in the Hudson Valley (likely gains Republicans from Harckham’s seat in exchange for Dems).

Ironically, it seems Serino has better job security when it is Dems who have the pen in their hand, drawing the lines on the map.

Yes, Harckham and Hinchey are going to want some of her Dem areas.

It is likely that every Republican incumbent sees their seat get safer in order to make all Dem incumbents safe.