2000: Clinton/Gore (D) v. Bush/Cheney (R)

[Ben.]

I think that with no Perot and aiming for a third term the race would be fairly close but I doubt that Clinton would ever be in serious trouble.

Bush would be a stronger candidate than his father in 92 or Dole in 96 and the GOP base would be far more motivated than in either of those contests, what’s more I can imagine that Rove would be able to turn the evangelical vote out far more strongly than he actually did in 2000.

Despite this Clinton was a popular president despite WhiteWater, Los Alamos and Lewinsky and had strong electoral pull in both the South and MidWest which Gore did not in 2000. In the end he probably wins but by a fairly close margin, with voter fatigue, an energised GOP base and the absence of a strong third party all playing a part.