AOC losing her district in 2022?

[Blair]

Ugh this is certainly the story you brief to a journalist to look smart, powerful and important; when in reality this is like discussing the political dynamics of the 2018 primaries in January 2016; pretty worthless involving groups of people where at least 20% of them will have different jobs.

But please; I can't think of anything more hilarious than Cuomo ordering this before he becomes Joe Biden's HUD Secretary only to then see AOC challenge Schumer or become Governor.

Political Plans like this don't work that well when you're trying to screw someone with a huge war chest, huge name ID, a national profile & history of beating one of the biggest names in NY Politics.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Ugh this is certainly the story you brief to a journalist to look smart, powerful and important; when in reality this is like discussing the political dynamics of the 2018 primaries in January 2016; pretty worthless involving groups of people where at least 20% of them will have different jobs.

But please; I can't think of anything more hilarious than Cuomo ordering this before he becomes Joe Biden's HUD Secretary only to then see AOC challenge Schumer or become Governor.

Political Plans like this don't work that well when you're trying to screw someone with a huge war chest, huge name ID, a national profile & history of beating one of the biggest names in NY Politics.

AOC is not winning a statewide primary, and certainly not against Schumer.

[Flyersfan232]

The population loss is happening upstate, not in NYC.  The Democrats in the state legislature would be really dumb to do this because 1) it is far from guaranteed that she'd lose anyway and 2) why throw away a solidly Democratic seat instead of screwing over a Republican?

They could just gerrymandering not like they get any blow back if they did.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah if NY only loses one seat it's pretty likely to come from upstate NY. If NY only is left with 25, then things get trickier, because that second seat will have to come from downstate somewhere. Packing Zeldin in on the east end of LI is prob the easiest thing to do if they wanted to secure their delegation advantage.

[The Mamdani Virus]

Ugh this is certainly the story you brief to a journalist to look smart, powerful and important; when in reality this is like discussing the political dynamics of the 2018 primaries in January 2016; pretty worthless involving groups of people where at least 20% of them will have different jobs.

But please; I can't think of anything more hilarious than Cuomo ordering this before he becomes Joe Biden's HUD Secretary only to then see AOC challenge Schumer or become Governor.

Political Plans like this don't work that well when you're trying to screw someone with a huge war chest, huge name ID, a national profile & history of beating one of the biggest names in NY Politics.

AOC would never win a statewide primary in NY, anyways, if Democrats cut a downstate seat this seems like the best option, or just cut NY-01 or NY-02 and push everything to the east, they don't even have to cut her seat to make her vulnerable in a primary, as already mentioned, they'd just have to cut the white Queens liberals from her seat, and that can be done without cutting her seat, if needed, add some rich precincts from Westchester.

[voice_of_resistance]

Ugh this is certainly the story you brief to a journalist to look smart, powerful and important; when in reality this is like discussing the political dynamics of the 2018 primaries in January 2016; pretty worthless involving groups of people where at least 20% of them will have different jobs.

But please; I can't think of anything more hilarious than Cuomo ordering this before he becomes Joe Biden's HUD Secretary only to then see AOC challenge Schumer or become Governor.

Political Plans like this don't work that well when you're trying to screw someone with a huge war chest, huge name ID, a national profile & history of beating one of the biggest names in NY Politics.

AOC would never win a statewide primary in NY, anyways, if Democrats cut a downstate seat this seems like the best option, or just cut NY-01 or NY-02 and push everything to the east, they don't even have to cut her seat to make her vulnerable in a primary, as already mentioned, they'd just have to cut the white Queens liberals from her seat, and that can be done without cutting her seat, if needed, add some rich precincts from Westchester.

Yeah she won on the back of gentrifiers. The surrounding Latino districts in the Bronx are all much poorer. She'd probably lose to Espaillat or Torres. Only way she wins is if Ruben Diaz wins NY-15 and they think she's the less bad one.

[NewYorkExpress]

My guess is that we have one upstate district being cut (not sure where, or which party), and if a second district needs to be chopped I'd guess Democrats combine Zeldin's district with the district Peter King is currently vacating (freshman incumbent who will be unlikely to have much clout in Albany).

That said, it's possible AOC runs statewide in 2022 anyways, or pulls a Delaney and doesn't run for reelection and runs for President in 2024 when she's first eligible.

[Blair]

Ugh this is certainly the story you brief to a journalist to look smart, powerful and important; when in reality this is like discussing the political dynamics of the 2018 primaries in January 2016; pretty worthless involving groups of people where at least 20% of them will have different jobs.

But please; I can't think of anything more hilarious than Cuomo ordering this before he becomes Joe Biden's HUD Secretary only to then see AOC challenge Schumer or become Governor.

Political Plans like this don't work that well when you're trying to screw someone with a huge war chest, huge name ID, a national profile & history of beating one of the biggest names in NY Politics.

AOC would never win a statewide primary in NY, anyways, if Democrats cut a downstate seat this seems like the best option, or just cut NY-01 or NY-02 and push everything to the east, they don't even have to cut her seat to make her vulnerable in a primary, as already mentioned, they'd just have to cut the white Queens liberals from her seat, and that can be done without cutting her seat, if needed, add some rich precincts from Westchester.

Take from something I posted about Kentucky but I disagree re the bolded.

I don't get why anyone thinks political campaigning is some sort of science where something is ordained to happen a certain way.

Sure she'd struggle but I don't think you can say that something would never happen.

[Gustaf]

The main reason this won't happen is that it would (likely) have to involve pitting an incumbent house rep against AOC in a primary and who the f**k would want to go up against her in a primary?

[EastAnglianLefty]

On the 2018 population figures the likeliest outcome is that the present NY-16 gets divided up. NY-17 takes in most of Westchester County, the western bits of the Bronx go to Espaillat and Mount Vernon and the eastern bits of the Bronx are taken by AOC. This lets the machine squash a reformer but without any of their own having to get steamrollered by AOC.

[Badger]

As long as she doesn't run against a popular entrenched incumbent like Schumer, AOC absolutely could win a Statewide Primary in New York. Hardly a given, but absolutely realistic. She's extremely popular with the base, and not just in New York City. Plus she's a highly effective campaigner and more telegenic and any other politician in the state.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think Bowmans seat will be torn up if they lose two seats. But he could run against Diaz

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think Bowmans seat will be torn up if they lose two seats. But he could run against Diaz

You're wrong on this one, I think. If one seat is lost, then the 2018 population estimates have just under 15 seats in NYC and Long Island and 11 seats in Westchester and points north, so Bowman's best case scenario is somebody else's base getting cut up as badly as NY-16 does and the most likely outcome being that his presumed base (Mount Vernon and black voters in the Bronx) gets thrown in with AOC. See this thread for details: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=352854.msg7389625#msg7389625

With 25 districts, NYC and Long Island are entitled to 14.4 seats, meaning you get a seat that's shared between Westchester and the Bronx with neither side dominating. It's still not ideal, but there's a better chance Bowman survives in that case.

[Abolish ICE]

As long as she doesn't run against a popular entrenched incumbent like Schumer, AOC absolutely could win a Statewide Primary in New York. Hardly a given, but absolutely realistic. She's extremely popular with the base, and not just in New York City. Plus she's a highly effective campaigner and more telegenic and any other politician in the state.

Is she though?  I mean, she only had a 22% approval rating nationally (despite having 74% name recognition) last time I checked and she couldn't even get her endorsed candidate elected District Attorney in her own backyard.  As far as I can tell, she's just an extremely divisive, fringe demagogue who is too drunk on her own empty media hype to realize that the fact that she lucked her way into Congress by unseating an incumbent who ran a remarkably incompetent primary campaign does not make her God-Emperor of the Democratic Party.

And as far as charisma goes, I don't think we've seen much evidence of that either.  She's good at getting media attention, but so is Trump and I wouldn't call him particularly charismatic either.  It's all well and good to get a lot media attention, but if 74% of Americans know who a politician is and only 22% have a favorable opinion of them, I wouldn't exactly call that evidence of charisma?

[Arson Plus]

As long as she doesn't run against a popular entrenched incumbent like Schumer, AOC absolutely could win a Statewide Primary in New York. Hardly a given, but absolutely realistic. She's extremely popular with the base, and not just in New York City. Plus she's a highly effective campaigner and more telegenic and any other politician in the state.

Is she though?  I mean, she only had a 22% approval rating nationally (despite having 74% name recognition) last time I checked and she couldn't even get her endorsed candidate elected District Attorney in her own backyard.  As far as I can tell, she's just an extremely divisive, fringe demagogue who is too drunk on her own empty media hype to realize that the fact that she lucked her way into Congress by unseating an incumbent who ran a remarkably incompetent primary campaign does not make her God-Emperor of the Democratic Party.

And as far as charisma goes, I don't think we've seen much evidence of that either.  She's good at getting media attention, but so is Trump and I wouldn't call him particularly charismatic either.  It's all well and good to get a lot media attention, but if 74% of Americans know who a politician is and only 22% have a favorable opinion of them, I wouldn't exactly call that evidence of charisma?

The reason why is because the Queens machine is powerful and Caban narrowly lost. Also, she led in the inital ballots

[Badger]

As long as she doesn't run against a popular entrenched incumbent like Schumer, AOC absolutely could win a Statewide Primary in New York. Hardly a given, but absolutely realistic. She's extremely popular with the base, and not just in New York City. Plus she's a highly effective campaigner and more telegenic and any other politician in the state.

Is she though?  I mean, she only had a 22% approval rating nationally (despite having 74% name recognition) last time I checked and she couldn't even get her endorsed candidate elected District Attorney in her own backyard.  As far as I can tell, she's just an extremely divisive, fringe demagogue who is too drunk on her own empty media hype to realize that the fact that she lucked her way into Congress by unseating an incumbent who ran a remarkably incompetent primary campaign does not make her God-Emperor of the Democratic Party.

And as far as charisma goes, I don't think we've seen much evidence of that either.  She's good at getting media attention, but so is Trump and I wouldn't call him particularly charismatic either.  It's all well and good to get a lot media attention, but if 74% of Americans know who a politician is and only 22% have a favorable opinion of them, I wouldn't exactly call that evidence of charisma?

We're talking about New York State here, not the nation as a whole. And as far as your take on her being an extremely Fringe divisive demagogue drunk on her own power, I would respectfully submit that your take on reality is not reflective of many New York Democratic primary voters.

[Abolish ICE]

As long as she doesn't run against a popular entrenched incumbent like Schumer, AOC absolutely could win a Statewide Primary in New York. Hardly a given, but absolutely realistic. She's extremely popular with the base, and not just in New York City. Plus she's a highly effective campaigner and more telegenic and any other politician in the state.

Is she though?  I mean, she only had a 22% approval rating nationally (despite having 74% name recognition) last time I checked and she couldn't even get her endorsed candidate elected District Attorney in her own backyard.  As far as I can tell, she's just an extremely divisive, fringe demagogue who is too drunk on her own empty media hype to realize that the fact that she lucked her way into Congress by unseating an incumbent who ran a remarkably incompetent primary campaign does not make her God-Emperor of the Democratic Party.

And as far as charisma goes, I don't think we've seen much evidence of that either.  She's good at getting media attention, but so is Trump and I wouldn't call him particularly charismatic either.  It's all well and good to get a lot media attention, but if 74% of Americans know who a politician is and only 22% have a favorable opinion of them, I wouldn't exactly call that evidence of charisma?

The reason why is because the Queens machine is powerful and Caban narrowly lost. Also, she led in the inital ballots

If AOC can’t beat the NYC machine in Queens, why would she be able to beat the NY Dem machine in a statewide primary where the deck will be stacked against her even more than it was against Caban.  Lastly, it doesn’t matter who led in the initial ballots.  What mattered was that Caban lost fair and square in AOC’s backyard.

As long as she doesn't run against a popular entrenched incumbent like Schumer, AOC absolutely could win a Statewide Primary in New York. Hardly a given, but absolutely realistic. She's extremely popular with the base, and not just in New York City. Plus she's a highly effective campaigner and more telegenic and any other politician in the state.

Is she though?  I mean, she only had a 22% approval rating nationally (despite having 74% name recognition) last time I checked and she couldn't even get her endorsed candidate elected District Attorney in her own backyard.  As far as I can tell, she's just an extremely divisive, fringe demagogue who is too drunk on her own empty media hype to realize that the fact that she lucked her way into Congress by unseating an incumbent who ran a remarkably incompetent primary campaign does not make her God-Emperor of the Democratic Party.

And as far as charisma goes, I don't think we've seen much evidence of that either.  She's good at getting media attention, but so is Trump and I wouldn't call him particularly charismatic either.  It's all well and good to get a lot media attention, but if 74% of Americans know who a politician is and only 22% have a favorable opinion of them, I wouldn't exactly call that evidence of charisma?

We're talking about New York State here, not the nation as a whole. And as far as your take on her being an extremely Fringe divisive demagogue drunk on her own power, I would respectfully submit that your take on reality is not reflective of many New York Democratic primary voters.

Drunk on her own media hype, not drunk on her own power; it’s the difference between egomania and megalomania   I agree that most New York Dems don’t have as negative a view of her as I do, but I think they see her as a fringe extremist and dislike her enough that they’ll pick generic Dem over her in a statewide primary (all things being equal).