AOC losing her district in 2022?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mattkbh/status/1212094801287368704

This was recently on Politico.

[UncleSam]

Ya I could definitely see her getting drawn out of her district, but she’d win anyway in one of the overlapping districts almost certainly. She has too high of a national profile.

[Gracile]

The legislature probably won't get rid of a Hispanic majority district, and I doubt one of the other NYC incumbents would want to face AOC in a potential primary (where she would have a huge money advantage).

[Drop Billionaires, Not Bombs]

The population loss is happening upstate, not in NYC.  The Democrats in the state legislature would be really dumb to do this because 1) it is far from guaranteed that she'd lose anyway and 2) why throw away a solidly Democratic seat instead of screwing over a Republican?

[Oryxslayer]

One district is falling from upstate, this is 100%. If/when New York loses a second seat, it comes from long Island, that's the next area significantly losing pop. Now, AOC still can get drawn out because her district is weird to begin with, crossing multiple boroughs by Bridges and water and all that, but she still should have an empty seat in NYC if she wants it. It very well could get more beneficial to her and drop Hispanic areas to the present 7th and 15th, and in exchange AOC gets the woke trendy parts of Brooklyn, the seat isn't exactly performing as it is.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

One district is falling from upstate, this is 100%. If/when New York loses a second seat, it comes from long Island, that's the next area significantly losing pop. Now, AOC still can get drawn out because her district is weird to begin with, crossing multiple boroughs by Bridges and water and all that, but she still should have an empty seat in NYC if she wants it. It very well could get more beneficial to her and drop Hispanic areas to the present 7th and 15th, and in exchange AOC gets the woke trendy parts of Brooklyn, the seat isn't exactly performing as it is.

If it were up to me I'd put her with Borough Park

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://imgur.com/a/zdiyPEC

Never gonna happen, but this would be the truly best case district for her to run in. 53% white, just 59.5-39.9 Clinton, would be an easy primary challenge taking in all the registered D Hasidics.

[Tintrlvr]

This is what I think the legislature would try to draw if they wanted to get rid of AOC (assuming NY loses two seats):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/51d76d5a-09f5-4862-a86e-82acd09a15c3

This is actually a very subtle and I think smart anti-AOC gerrymander. First, which district does she run in? It's not immediately obvious. AOC's base in her primary against Crowley was white liberal voters in Sunnyside, Astoria and Jackson Heights, but she lives in the Bronx.

The white liberal parts of Jackson Heights are now in Grace Meng's plurality Asian district, which is totally out of reach for AOC in a primary. The white liberal areas in Sunnyside are split between Meng's district and Carolyn Maloney's Manhattan-based district, which is still majority based in Manhattan and has a very strong anti-AOC anchor in the Upper East Side. The white liberal areas in Astoria are also now in Maloney's district. The Latino parts of northern Queens are what AOC would like to consider her base but weren't particularly strong for her in the primary; those areas are now in Adriano Espaillat's Manhattan-based district. The Bronx parts of her district are also split up: Her home in Parkchester is in Eliot Engel's district, and other parts of her district are in the South Bronx district where Jose Serrano is retiring or in my new Nassau-Westchester district for Tom Suozzi. The last is a non-starter for her, but the first two are possible targets.

Since the bulk of the Queens portion of her district is now in Maloney and Espaillat's districts, she might choose to run in either of those, although her home is not in either district. More of her base (white liberals) is in Maloney's district, but I actually think she's less likely to run there because it's opposed to her political identity; in particular, I think she would have difficulty squaring representing literally the wealthiest congressional district in the entire country that is also heavily white with her political views. More importantly, I also think she would have little chance in the primary vs. Maloney, who should be able to rack up 70-80% of the vote in the Upper East Side precincts in a primary vs. AOC. Therefore, she probably would not run against Maloney.

She would face difficulty in Espaillat's district too. The vast majority of the district is in Manhattan, where AOC has never represented and where Espaillat is the home candidate, and the areas of Queens in the district are not her base (she actually probably lost the now-Espaillat portions of her former district in the primary vs. Crowley). Also, the district has more black voters, who have always been strongly against AOC and her allies (like Tiffany Caban) in primaries than white liberal voters (or white voters at all), who have generally been her supporters. Also, Espaillat is not totally beloved of the establishment either, having repeatedly tried to primary Charlie Rangel before he retired, so the establishment wouldn't be extremely sad to see him lose to AOC in the unlikely event she was able to upset him.

She could also try running against Engel, which would be the district she actually lives in. This is an interesting one because Engel has long represented fairly minority-heavy districts; I believe he is one of only two white Congressmen nationwide to represent plurality black districts currently. The new district is narrowly plurality Hispanic, but black voters are still a very large portion of the overall vote. Given AOC's historically poor performance with black voters in primaries, I think she would struggle against Engel as well, at least unless there was also a significant black candidate in the race. It also consists almost entirely of areas where AOC has no history, other than Parkchester itself, and it has very few white liberals; most white voters in the district are moderate-to-conservative, other than in Riverdale, where they are also quite wealthy. (I would also note that this is State Senate President Andrea Stewart-Cousins' congressional district, and so the State Senate will take an especial interest in how it is drawn and who might be interested in running.)

Her final option would be to run in the South Bronx district being vacated by Jose Serrano. This is certainly a possibility, but I would point out that there are a lot of ambitious establishment politicians in that seat as well, and it's the sort of area where the establishment wins; again, essentially zero white liberals. It also contains almost no areas that AOC represents currently. Her chances would depend significantly on who runs in the primary.

You could maybe contort the map further to chop up the area even more heavily, but this I think resembles the map that will be drawn and would actually result in AOC leaving Congress.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Why? The population loss is happening in upstate New York... not NYC.

[DrScholl]

If two seats are lost then probably only one upstate will go and the other will likely have to come from NYC. It's hard to see Democrats pressing their luck too much by trying to eliminate two upstate seats. No less than two GOP vote sinks up state is the wisest move long term.

[Brittain33]

Why? The population loss is happening in upstate New York... not NYC.

There was discussion on the main census thread about this... one seat goes away upstate but the other one has to go in Brooklyn/Manhattan/Bronx if two are lost. LI has stagnated and NYC trends have swung from growth to loss.

[Zaybay]

Why? The population loss is happening in upstate New York... not NYC.

There was discussion on the main census thread about this... one seat goes away upstate but the other one has to go in Brooklyn/Manhattan/Bronx if two are lost. LI has stagnated and NYC trends have swung from growth to loss.

Its not NYC which has swung from a gain to a loss, but the downstate region entirely. Its still mostly Long Island thats to blame for this population decline. If a second seat were to be eliminated, it would be from the LI/NYC suburban border region.

Anyway, something that hasnt been mentioned yet in this thread is the fact that AOC has multiple allies in the state legislature, and they would surely make a fuss if she were purposefully drawn out.

[Fuzzy Bear]

AOC's predicament is nothing new, and it's not really something she should take personally.  It's happened to the best and the worst.  Maverick Rep. Bella Abzug's district was eliminated in 1972, and she lost the primary to Rep. William Fitts Ryan, a veteran antiwar liberal who died of cancer prior to the GE.  (Abzug was named to replace him, but Ryan's widow ran on the Liberal party line, blaming that the primary hastened Ryan's demise.)  That same year, upstate legislators put Albany area antiwar Republican Daniel Button in the same district with hawkish Democrat Sam Stratton (which Stratton won).  That's how they roll in NY.  

AOC is, in many ways, the Abzug of her day; she's a Democratic Socialist and a Berniecrat, so that's two (2) strikes against her in Albany, but she's also a national figure, and a transitional figure, in that she has come to be a spokeman for millenials, and is a "star" who's not going to go willingly, and may primary Schumer if her district is eliminated in 2022.  (Indeed, if her district is eliminated, she becomes an early favorite to succeed Schumer, should he pick 2022 to retire.)

AOC represents a district that is split between Queens and the Bronx.  It would be somewhat easy to split up the district by shifting the Queens portion to a district that includes the current district of Rep Nydia Velazquez and the Bronx portion to a district held by Rep. Jose Serrano.  The plan here would be to move the districts of Eliot Engel and Nita Lowey north, to draw a district favorable for a Democrat for whomever succeeds Lowey in her Westchester-Rockland based district.  (Lowey is retiring in 2020.)  AOC could choose to run in a more Queens-based district, but she lives in the Bronx.  If she runs in a more Bronx-based district, she'll likely have to deal with the issue of a primary with Serrano (another Hispanic) or with Engel (if he runs) in a more white middle class district.  A combination with the district of Adriano Espillat of Manhattan is possible.  The bottom line here, of course, is that AOC's district, which is already "leftover" territory in two (2) boroughs, is the easiest one to chop up, and all of the other Reps whose districts border hers have either (A) more favor with the legislature, or (B) an ethnic consideration that will serve them well in a primary.

This is not to say that AOC will lose like Abzug did in 1972.  Abzug was a big name in NYC in 1972, but she was nowhere near the big name AOC is nationally.  Serrano is 76 at this writing, and Engel is 72.  My guess is that Serrano, who will be 79 in late 2022, will opt to retire, and AOC will be eased into that district.  It's a way to keep her from running a primary against Cuomo or Schumer.  Because if AOC is forced into a CD primary she could lose, there's no reason for her to challenge the big boys. She's upset a powerhouse before, and while Joe Crowley was caught napping, AOC is on more equal electoral footing with the stars of today.

[Tekken_Guy]

AOC's predicament is nothing new, and it's not really something she should take personally.  It's happened to the best and the worst.  Maverick Rep. Bella Abzug's district was eliminated in 1972, and she lost the primary to Rep. William Fitts Ryan, a veteran antiwar liberal who died of cancer prior to the GE.  (Abzug was named to replace him, but Ryan's widow ran on the Liberal party line, blaming that the primary hastened Ryan's demise.)  That same year, upstate legislators put Albany area antiwar Republican Daniel Button in the same district with hawkish Democrat Sam Stratton (which Stratton won).  That's how they roll in NY.  

AOC is, in many ways, the Abzug of her day; she's a Democratic Socialist and a Berniecrat, so that's two (2) strikes against her in Albany, but she's also a national figure, and a transitional figure, in that she has come to be a spokeman for millenials, and is a "star" who's not going to go willingly, and may primary Schumer if her district is eliminated in 2022.  (Indeed, if her district is eliminated, she becomes an early favorite to succeed Schumer, should he pick 2022 to retire.)

AOC represents a district that is split between Queens and the Bronx.  It would be somewhat easy to split up the district by shifting the Queens portion to a district that includes the current district of Rep Nydia Velazquez and the Bronx portion to a district held by Rep. Jose Serrano.  The plan here would be to move the districts of Eliot Engel and Nita Lowey north, to draw a district favorable for a Democrat for whomever succeeds Lowey in her Westchester-Rockland based district.  (Lowey is retiring in 2020.)  AOC could choose to run in a more Queens-based district, but she lives in the Bronx.  If she runs in a more Bronx-based district, she'll likely have to deal with the issue of a primary with Serrano (another Hispanic) or with Engel (if he runs) in a more white middle class district.  A combination with the district of Adriano Espillat of Manhattan is possible.  The bottom line here, of course, is that AOC's district, which is already "leftover" territory in two (2) boroughs, is the easiest one to chop up, and all of the other Reps whose districts border hers have either (A) more favor with the legislature, or (B) an ethnic consideration that will serve them well in a primary.

This is not to say that AOC will lose like Abzug did in 1972.  Abzug was a big name in NYC in 1972, but she was nowhere near the big name AOC is nationally.  Serrano is 76 at this writing, and Engel is 72.  My guess is that Serrano, who will be 79 in late 2022, will opt to retire, and AOC will be eased into that district.  It's a way to keep her from running a primary against Cuomo or Schumer.  Because if AOC is forced into a CD primary she could lose, there's no reason for her to challenge the big boys. She's upset a powerhouse before, and while Joe Crowley was caught napping, AOC is on more equal electoral footing with the stars of today.

Serrano is retiring this year.

[We Live in Black and White]

I highly doubt that's a thing the state powers can do within the purview of the VRA, and I highly doubt it's a thing they'll want to do when they have an opportunity to inconvenience Trump's people.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

The population loss is happening upstate, not in NYC.  The Democrats in the state legislature would be really dumb to do this because 1) it is far from guaranteed that she'd lose anyway and 2) why throw away a solidly Democratic seat instead of screwing over a Republican?

The question is if New York loses one or two seats. Just one and an upstate one will get cut but two leaves no choice. Of course none of the incumbents in NYC would want to face AOC in a primary.

[Minnesota Mike]

I am not a huge fan of AOC but this talk about drawing her out of district is absurd. She will run and win in whatever district she winds up in. Too much money, too much name recognition to be beat in a Democratic primary.

[Fuzzy Bear]

AOC's predicament is nothing new, and it's not really something she should take personally.  It's happened to the best and the worst.  Maverick Rep. Bella Abzug's district was eliminated in 1972, and she lost the primary to Rep. William Fitts Ryan, a veteran antiwar liberal who died of cancer prior to the GE.  (Abzug was named to replace him, but Ryan's widow ran on the Liberal party line, blaming that the primary hastened Ryan's demise.)  That same year, upstate legislators put Albany area antiwar Republican Daniel Button in the same district with hawkish Democrat Sam Stratton (which Stratton won).  That's how they roll in NY.  

AOC is, in many ways, the Abzug of her day; she's a Democratic Socialist and a Berniecrat, so that's two (2) strikes against her in Albany, but she's also a national figure, and a transitional figure, in that she has come to be a spokeman for millenials, and is a "star" who's not going to go willingly, and may primary Schumer if her district is eliminated in 2022.  (Indeed, if her district is eliminated, she becomes an early favorite to succeed Schumer, should he pick 2022 to retire.)

AOC represents a district that is split between Queens and the Bronx.  It would be somewhat easy to split up the district by shifting the Queens portion to a district that includes the current district of Rep Nydia Velazquez and the Bronx portion to a district held by Rep. Jose Serrano.  The plan here would be to move the districts of Eliot Engel and Nita Lowey north, to draw a district favorable for a Democrat for whomever succeeds Lowey in her Westchester-Rockland based district.  (Lowey is retiring in 2020.)  AOC could choose to run in a more Queens-based district, but she lives in the Bronx.  If she runs in a more Bronx-based district, she'll likely have to deal with the issue of a primary with Serrano (another Hispanic) or with Engel (if he runs) in a more white middle class district.  A combination with the district of Adriano Espillat of Manhattan is possible.  The bottom line here, of course, is that AOC's district, which is already "leftover" territory in two (2) boroughs, is the easiest one to chop up, and all of the other Reps whose districts border hers have either (A) more favor with the legislature, or (B) an ethnic consideration that will serve them well in a primary.

This is not to say that AOC will lose like Abzug did in 1972.  Abzug was a big name in NYC in 1972, but she was nowhere near the big name AOC is nationally.  Serrano is 76 at this writing, and Engel is 72.  My guess is that Serrano, who will be 79 in late 2022, will opt to retire, and AOC will be eased into that district.  It's a way to keep her from running a primary against Cuomo or Schumer.  Because if AOC is forced into a CD primary she could lose, there's no reason for her to challenge the big boys. She's upset a powerhouse before, and while Joe Crowley was caught napping, AOC is on more equal electoral footing with the stars of today.

Serrano is retiring this year.

This would complicate AOC's situation, as Serrano's son is a current State Senator and would be a strong candidate to succeed Serrano this year.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Why? The population loss is happening in upstate New York... not NYC.

This isn't correct lol. NYC has grown by 2.7% since 2010....while the nation as a whole has grown by roughly 6%. NYC is stagnating at best, and is more than set to lose a CD.

[Oryxslayer]

Everyone saying NYC is going to lose a seat hasn't seen the excellent map from Cinyc. Yes, NYC is stagnating when compared to the nation. About half of the districts are underpopulated, and another half are slightly overpopulated. BUT NYC ISN'T COMPARING TO THE NATION. IT'S COMPARING WITHIN NEW YORK. When compared to the rest of the state, the boroughs and her immediate suburbs like Westchester are doing fine. Downstate therefore still carries a heavy weight on 25 districts as it did on 27.

But where will the cuts come? The first is 100% upstate, and under a fair plan it would usually be the 22nd getting thrown away. However, NY may not have a fair plan, their Redistricting law was written with the expectation of divided govt. The second is coming from Long Island. The two suburban counties will only have just under 3.5 districts with a 25 seat map. Long Island is the next part of the state which is shrinking, and NYCs tepid growth is better than shrinkage. This means 3 LI seats, one or two cross LI/City seats (The AA 5th taking in it's non-AA voters from the East rather than the west, or Meng's 6th taking in Asian communities in the NW of Nassau), and one LI seat axed. This could be Kings considering his retirement and the seats central location, it could be Rice if the present 5th eats too much, or the entire island could be redrawn with no obvious precursor/successor seats.

If it doesn't come from Long Island, and a NYC seat get's axed, then LI would still be losing representation. A 4 district LI when you have about 3.5 seats worth of pop would result in the two near Nassau seats sliding into the city. They would both become safer for team blue. However, considering how many interests are vested in the city when compared to LI, and who has the upper hand in redistricting, LI looks likely to get the short straw.



Now, this does not mean AOC is out of the woodwork. Her seat was the 'leftovers' seat in NYC in 2010, so it lacks a true COI. If the NYC Dems really want her gone, they could shift the blue seats around internally to disfavor that part of the city. However, considering where the progressives are in NYC, she might just primary the successor to the present NY12 in that scenario.

[Banana Republican]

This is what I think the legislature would try to draw if they wanted to get rid of AOC (assuming NY loses two seats):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/51d76d5a-09f5-4862-a86e-82acd09a15c3

This is actually a very subtle and I think smart anti-AOC gerrymander. First, which district does she run in? It's not immediately obvious. AOC's base in her primary against Crowley was white liberal voters in Sunnyside, Astoria and Jackson Heights, but she lives in the Bronx.

-snip-

Regardless of anything else, I want to first get this out of the way --- good job giving Park Slope to Max Rose. That should be a part of any Dem map. I do think, however, that you could give him a bit more (particularly since you are using 1 block tentacles to connect in some places, may as well thin out the tentacles a bit more and give him some more Dem precincts).

OK, that is out of the way, so let's move on to the actual focus, AOC...

That is indeed a skillful attempt at drawing AOC out, and if anything did it, it would probably be something like that. The issue with AOC, however, is that because she has a truly national profile and would easily be able to raise many millions to run (in a primary) wherever she wants, she is potentially quite a bit less tied to any specific district than members of Congress normally are. If she is drawn out, she may attempt to run for something else entirely, which may not be something that Albany would wish to provoke. I would say there is also even a real possibility that she would be able to move, run, and win in an entirely different state/region (depending obviously on which state/region, but if the right sort of open seat opened up...).

Regarding NY-12/Maloney, it is true that you have a narrow population advantage for the Manhattan part of the district, but there are also some smaller areas in the Manhattan part (i.e. the East Village) that would probably be more favorable to AOC, so that balances out the population a bit more in AOC's favor. An AOC-Maloney primary in that district would be... interesting...

However, if I were AOC with that map, I think I would actually seriously consider running in NY-07, which is not a district you mention at all and which doesn't overlap at all with her current district. This district contains a lot of areas with young progressive white voters who are likely to be similarly favorable (or perhaps more so) to AOC as young white progressive voters in AOC's current district - Williamsburg, Greenpoint, Bushwick in particular, but also in other parts of the district. And it also has a high Hispanic population. It overlaps with quite a lot of Bernie 2016 primary precincts:



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/19/us/elections/new-york-city-democratic-primary-results.html

And also overlaps very well with areas where Cynthia Nixon did well in the 2018 Gov primary:



The 2020 Dem Presidential primary precinct results will also obviously be instructive, assuming that the race remains competitive-ish until the NY primary.

Overall, the biggest issue with the map (or any anti-AOC map) is that it looks like a pro-white anti-Hispanic map, mainly because it is deliberately reducing Hispanic voting power/districts at a time when the Hispanic population share has been growing.

That would probably be especially so if it ended up resulting in AOC running in NY-07, which would set up a Latina-vs-Latina primary, which probably would not be a particularly good look for the NY Democratic party. Reducing Hispanic representation, when it is the white (except in gentrifying areas) and black populations that tend to be on the decline, really?

Also keep in mind that AOC is young enough that it is entirely possible she could jump over to the NY State Senate, at least temporarily (and then later run for Congress again or possibly statewide when an appropriate opportunity opened up). It would be funny and somewhat fitting if the NY State Leg tried to get rid of AOC and then she ended up in the NY State Leg so that she would be more of a pain for them than before.

[Pollster]

If "many state lawmakers" think she's going to just go away because she got redistricted out of Congress, they're idiots.

Besides, she probably wants to run statewide anyway.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

I highly doubt that's a thing the state powers can do within the purview of the VRA, and I highly doubt it's a thing they'll want to do when they have an opportunity to inconvenience Trump's people.

HAHHAHAHAHA OMG talk about having no f[inks]ing clue how the VRA works.

[Tintrlvr]

This is what I think the legislature would try to draw if they wanted to get rid of AOC (assuming NY loses two seats):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/51d76d5a-09f5-4862-a86e-82acd09a15c3

This is actually a very subtle and I think smart anti-AOC gerrymander. First, which district does she run in? It's not immediately obvious. AOC's base in her primary against Crowley was white liberal voters in Sunnyside, Astoria and Jackson Heights, but she lives in the Bronx.

-snip-

Regardless of anything else, I want to first get this out of the way --- good job giving Park Slope to Max Rose. That should be a part of any Dem map. I do think, however, that you could give him a bit more (particularly since you are using 1 block tentacles to connect in some places, may as well thin out the tentacles a bit more and give him some more Dem precincts).

OK, that is out of the way, so let's move on to the actual focus, AOC...

That is indeed a skillful attempt at drawing AOC out, and if anything did it, it would probably be something like that. The issue with AOC, however, is that because she has a truly national profile and would easily be able to raise many millions to run (in a primary) wherever she wants, she is potentially quite a bit less tied to any specific district than members of Congress normally are. If she is drawn out, she may attempt to run for something else entirely, which may not be something that Albany would wish to provoke. I would say there is also even a real possibility that she would be able to move, run, and win in an entirely different state/region (depending obviously on which state/region, but if the right sort of open seat opened up...).

Regarding NY-12/Maloney, it is true that you have a narrow population advantage for the Manhattan part of the district, but there are also some smaller areas in the Manhattan part (i.e. the East Village) that would probably be more favorable to AOC, so that balances out the population a bit more in AOC's favor. An AOC-Maloney primary in that district would be... interesting...

However, if I were AOC with that map, I think I would actually seriously consider running in NY-07, which is not a district you mention at all and which doesn't overlap at all with her current district. This district contains a lot of areas with young progressive white voters who are likely to be similarly favorable (or perhaps more so) to AOC as young white progressive voters in AOC's current district - Williamsburg, Greenpoint, Bushwick in particular, but also in other parts of the district. And it also has a high Hispanic population. It overlaps with quite a lot of Bernie 2016 primary precincts:



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/19/us/elections/new-york-city-democratic-primary-results.html

And also overlaps very well with areas where Cynthia Nixon did well in the 2018 Gov primary:



The 2020 Dem Presidential primary precinct results will also obviously be instructive, assuming that the race remains competitive-ish until the NY primary.

Overall, the biggest issue with the map (or any anti-AOC map) is that it looks like a pro-white anti-Hispanic map, mainly because it is deliberately reducing Hispanic voting power/districts at a time when the Hispanic population share has been growing.

That would probably be especially so if it ended up resulting in AOC running in NY-07, which would set up a Latina-vs-Latina primary, which probably would not be a particularly good look for the NY Democratic party. Reducing Hispanic representation, when it is the white (except in gentrifying areas) and black populations that tend to be on the decline, really?

Also keep in mind that AOC is young enough that it is entirely possible she could jump over to the NY State Senate, at least temporarily (and then later run for Congress again or possibly statewide when an appropriate opportunity opened up). It would be funny and somewhat fitting if the NY State Leg tried to get rid of AOC and then she ended up in the NY State Leg so that she would be more of a pain for them than before.

NY-07 is definitely quite favorable to AOC demographically, but it's also basically an unchanged version of Nydia Velazquez's current district and has been drawn for decades to Velazquez's desired specifications, so I strongly doubt it will change at all. (I made the numbering match the current districts until you get to NY-14, which is the former NY-15, and so on.)

AOC is also based in the Bronx so I strongly doubt she runs in a district that is focused on Brooklyn, even if she has a lot of supporters there. Of course, I could certainly see an AOC ally running (but probably not until/unless Velazquez retires, since she has a left-wing reputation and isn't even a white man (what doomed Mike Capuano)).

For what it's worth, the messiness in Brooklyn could be solved much more easily if Velazquez weren't adamant about having Sunset Park in her district, which makes the whole map quite convoluted (assuming you also want to shore up Max Rose).


On the first point, I realized after the fact that I could have taken Cobble Hill/Carroll Gardens/Brooklyn Heights into Rose's district, replaced them in Velazquez's district with some of Borough Park, and then threaded Nadler's district further around hunting for marginal precincts from Rose's district, in each case without affecting racial balances much. That might add D+0.5 or so to Rose's district. (Edit: Revised version of the map is now live with an even messier but more D-favorable district for Rose. I'm not certain the Democrats would bother with this level of messiness, but they might. The remap also increased the Hispanic percentage in Velazquez's district by about a point or so.)

The existing draft, by the way, was intended not only to help Rose but also to serve Yvette Clarke's interests, since she nearly lost her primary to an upstart candidate with his voter base in Park Slope and would love to see it put in someone else's district in exchange for conservative whites in southern Brooklyn who won't vote in a Democratic primary. Of course, she may not survive 2020 anyway (Adem Bunkeddeko is running again). This is my district (and still is on my remap), and I do wish she would lose her primary, but I'm realistic about how these things work.

[President Johnson]

She could also challenge Cuomo in 2022. She'd probably lose that one, but it would be an interesting race.