🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[CumbrianLefty]

A similar proportion to the number of LibDems who approved the coalition deal with the Tories in 2010 - hopefully for the Austrian Greens, it turns out rather better for them.

[CumbrianLefty]

That's one hell of an FPO drop from the previous election......

[CumbrianLefty]

Thank goodness this is one such crisis where the FPÖ also behaves statesmen-like and doesn’t resort to silly conspiracy theories ...

I suspect they are saving those for later.

[CumbrianLefty]

How low can the FPO go, I wonder......

[CumbrianLefty]

How low can the FPÖ go, I wonder......

Hopefully single digits.

What is their recent low, out of interest? 11% must be close to it at least.

[CumbrianLefty]

And the SPO's lowest since......?

[CumbrianLefty]

When was the last time OVP polled at 50%, not for decades I would have thought?

[CumbrianLefty]

Surprised they never polled 50% in the post war era when 2 party politics was more of a thing.

(to contrast, in the UK both Tories and Labour quite often polled in the 50s come that period)

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, support for the ruling coalition there is actually up slightly.

[CumbrianLefty]

Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

How on Earth is having no nuclear energy a welcome development? If only the rest of Europe was like France (where nuclear is the main way to produce electricity) maybe we could actually reduce CO2 emissions and what not.

Austrians and Germans have weird fetish of hating nuclear energy for no good reason. And they are bullying other countries to close their nuclear plants like Pacs in Hungary or Temelin in Czech Republic. I am not some weird nuclear energy fanboy and I see some issues with that source of energy (cost of building, know-how needed from countries like France, where EDF/Areva have problems with realisation of their current projects etc.) but German-speaking countries are simply nuts with their anti-nuclear prejudices.

Of course in Germany the rise of the Greens is very much bound up with anti-nuclear sentiment ("peaceful" power as well as the weapons)

[CumbrianLefty]

New Ö24 poll (20-23 April):



77% approve of the ÖVP-Green government work (99% of ÖVP- and 97% of Green voters)

80% approve of their Coronavirus work (99% of Green, 98% of ÖVP and 66% of SPÖ voters)

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-80-mit-Corona-Politik-der-Regierung-zufrieden/427422043

Record equalling low for the SPO - how long before there are serious changes there?

[CumbrianLefty]

Is that sort of turnout normal for internal party elections? Looks a bit on the low side to me.

[CumbrianLefty]

These political parties named after people, do they ever last?

(in Austria you've got the recent Pilz example as well)

[CumbrianLefty]

These political parties named after people, do they ever last?

(in Austria you've got the recent Pilz example as well)

Very simple:

Strache needs to get 5%+ in the October 11 Vienna state election, or he’ll already be history again ...

Hopefully he won't, then!

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting finding from a new ATV/Hajek poll today:

"If there's a major second wave of infections in Austria, should there be another complete shutdown of society and the economy ?"

51% No
41% Yes

"No" by party voters: 71% NEOS, 71% FPÖ, 54% SPÖ, 47% ÖVP and 40% Greens.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200516_OTS0014/atv-frage-der-woche-51-der-oesterreicherinnen-sprechen-sich-gegen-totalen-lockdown-bei-weiterer-infektionswelle-aus

Lockdowns weren't just designed to slow the spread of the virus, but to buy time to help us better able to counter it even without a vaccine (more effective treatments and so on)

If not much progress has been made on that front, we do indeed have a problem.

[CumbrianLefty]

Market poll for the "Standard" (May 18-19):

43% ÖVP
21% SPÖ
17% Greens
12% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  1% Others

65% the current measures by ÖVP-Greens to prevent the spread of the virus are justified
30% the measures are overblown
  5% the measures are not strict enough

32% ÖVP-Greens should open up the economy/society faster
23% it should be opened slower than right now
46% the current pace of opening-up is about right

(Boomers are the most in favour of opening up faster, while young voters are the most sceptical.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117614965/weniger-persoenliche-sorgen-weniger-zustimmung-zu-kurz

What shocking news.

[CumbrianLefty]

How does that compare with previously?

[CumbrianLefty]

New Oct. 11 Vienna state election poll (Unique Research/"Heute" newspaper):



Turnout: 78% (+3.2%)

2015:

39.6% SPÖ
30.8% FPÖ
11.8% Greens
  9.2% ÖVP
  6.2% NEOS
  2.4% Others

https://www.heute.at/s/heute-umfrage-fpoe-stuerzt-ab-strache-ueberholt-nepp-100085632

Extremely unlikely, but I would love to see both FPÖ and Strache fail the threshold.

Possible if there is an almost perfect 50/50 split and they both fall just below it

[CumbrianLefty]

[...]

  6% THC
  2% Others

Support for re-unification between FPÖ and THC ?

Among FPÖ-voters: 40% for, 48% against
Among THC-voters: 55% for, 30% against
Among ÖVP-voters: ca. 10% for

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200612_OTS0121/atv-wien-trend-spoe-bei-wien-wahl-stabil-in-front-38-fpoe-auch-mit-kickl-als-spitzenkanditat-im-keller-8

THC is an... interesting abbreviation for Strache's Party.

In what way?

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, a revival of SPO in those circumstances would be nice......

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like the OVP's "virus bump" is easing, then.

[CumbrianLefty]

Soros *and* Rothschild? Truly we were being spoiled here

[CumbrianLefty]

Isn't wearing masks part of "learning to live with the virus"?

[CumbrianLefty]

My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

Didn't think you were *that* right leaning tbh.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another new poll and the SPÖ is reaching a new high:
 
41% SPÖ (+1.4%)
20% ÖVP (+10.8%)
15% Greens (+3.2%)
  9% FPÖ (-21.8%)
  7% NEOS (+0.8%)
  5% THC (+5.0%)
  3% Others (+0.6%)

Projected turnout: 65% (-10%)

Link

I think you mean "a new *recent* high"