🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Mike88]

My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

[Mike88]

My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

Didn't think you were *that* right leaning tbh.

Neither did I, to be honest. Maybe because I support opening shops on Sunday, supported the ban on begging, or support the access of financial documents of state supported associations, maybe putted me more on the right part of the scale. Maybe, don't know.

Curiously, in Portuguese election quizzes, my results, more often than not, point to the PS rather than the party I actually vote.

[Mike88]

My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

Didn't think you were *that* right leaning tbh.

Neither did I, to be honest. Maybe because I support opening shops on Sunday, supported the ban on begging, or support the access of financial documents of state supported associations, maybe putted me more on the right part of the scale. Maybe, don't know.

Curiously, in Portuguese election quizzes, my results, more often than not, point to the PS rather than the party I actually vote.

Ughhh, you support opening shops on Sunday ?

Sunday opening destroys family life, as most cashiers are women who want Sunday to be home with the rest of the family.

Yeah, but on Sunday everybody has more time to go out and buy stuff. I get your point, when it was discussed here in Portugal many people argued that, but in terms of practicality it's better, IMO, for many families who cannot do shopping on weekdays and the weekend is the perfect time. Plus my view, is that for businesses, it can also be positive as it creates more revenue, big and small.

[Mike88]

My results were:

ÖVP +67
NEOS +45
FPÖ +34
HC +10
SPÖ -8
SÖZ -9
GRÜNE -19
BIER -21
LINKS -46

Didn't think you were *that* right leaning tbh.

Neither did I, to be honest. Maybe because I support opening shops on Sunday, supported the ban on begging, or support the access of financial documents of state supported associations, maybe putted me more on the right part of the scale. Maybe, don't know.

Curiously, in Portuguese election quizzes, my results, more often than not, point to the PS rather than the party I actually vote.

Ughhh, you support opening shops on Sunday ?

Sunday opening destroys family life, as most cashiers are women who want Sunday to be home with the rest of the family.

Yeah, but on Sunday everybody has more time to go out and buy stuff. I get your point, when it was discussed here in Portugal many people argued that, but in terms of practicality it's better, IMO, for many families who cannot do shopping on weekdays and the weekend is the perfect time. Plus my view, is that for businesses, it can also be positive as it creates more revenue, big and small.

Sorry, but that is a lame argument: Sunday shopping exists here in the tourism areas (for a few hours), but I never shop on a Sunday. And most local people are not either.

It’s just for the damn tourists.

As if these damn tourists cannot shop during the week or at a Saturday, when shops are open until 6-8pm ...

It’s all about planning. You can easily buy your stuff on Friday/Saturday and „survive“ the Sunday without shops being open.

Besides, tourists can also eat at restaurants on a Sunday.

Those damn business lobbys arguing for comprehensive Sunday opening are just corporate whores trying to destroy the last common family day.

I will speak from my country view: Tourists are important also, and they are one of the main reason Portugal's economic data has been quite good in the last 4 years, but remember that Portugal is still a very poor country and many people don't make enough ends meet by the end of the month, so another day open can be very good for the income of many families who own small businesses like shops, restaurants and others. I support it because of the economic problems the country has.

[Mike88]

No surprises in the exit polls.

[Mike88]

1st trend polls (by 3 different pollsters):

SPÖ: ca. 41-42% (+2%)
ÖVP: ca. 17-18% (+8%)
Greens: ca. 14-15% (+3%)
FPÖ: ca. 10% (-21%)
NEOS: ca. 8% (+2%)
Strache: ca. 4-5% (+5%)
Others: ca. 3-4%

Those are mostly based on phone/online interviews, not counted votes yet.

MoE = +/- 2.5% (!)

Does the 41-42% give the SPÖ an absloute majority or do they still need the support of the Greens?

[Mike88]

Even with Strache out, they are nowhere near an absolute majority (46-47%).

Ah, ok. I thought that all the seats were allocated with the D'Hondt method, but it's has constituencies using the Hare quota. Right.

[Mike88]

What a mess. But one question, did they forged the data of polling, or completely made up the numbers?

[Mike88]

So, will there be a OVP leadership election to select a new leader, or a snap general election?

Also, interesting that in just the last 3 weeks, several European government parties have been hit with substantial setbacks: Norway, Germany, Portugal, Czech Republic and now Austria.

[Mike88]

So, will there be a OVP leadership election to select a new leader, or a snap general election?

Kurz was only confirmed as ÖVP leader with 99.4% in August, so nope.

He will remain party leader & group leader in parliament until he’s either found guilty or not.

He may return as Chancellor in the latter event.

No new elections either: ÖVP+Greens are continuing with interim Chancellor Schallenberg.

Right. But, the investigation and trial could last several months, Austria having an interim Chancellor for a considerable period of time could be messy, IMO.

[Mike88]

Last INSA poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1578691851200376832

Quite a low result for Van der Bellen. So far, all incumbent Presidents in Austrian democracy who ran for reelection, easily secured reelection on the 1st round. We'll see what the result is this Sunday.

[Mike88]

The last polls close in about 3 hours. Exit polls will be announced at that hour.

[Mike88]

Polls close in 7 minutes.

Live coverage feeds:

https://orf.at/newsroom/livestream/14192865

[Mike88]

Van der Bellen reelected on the 1st round. 53-56%

FPO candidate at 17-20% and the Bier party at 8-11%.

[Mike88]

ORF's SORA projection also shows Van der Bellen reelected with 54.6%. FPO with 18.9%, but the Bier party at 4th with 8.1%.

[Mike88]

Results page: https://bundeswahlen.gv.at/2022/

ORF results page: https://orf.at/wahl/bp22/hochrechnungen

[Mike88]

Updated SORA projection:

55.4% Van der Bellen
18.4% Rosenkranz
  8.4% Wallentin
  8.1% Wlazny
  5.8% Grosz
  2.2% Brunner
  1.6% Staudinger

66.1% Turnout

[Mike88]

Results by towns so far:

https://twitter.com/WienerZeitung/status/1579129936400424961

[Mike88]

SORA's projection: 95% counted

56.1% Van der Bellen
17.9% Rosenkranz
  8.4% Wlazny
  8.3% Wallentin
  5.6% Grosz
  2.2% Brunner
  1.5% Staudinger

65.8% Turnout

[Mike88]

Only a few areas of Vienna are left to count. Tomorrow, the postal votes will start being counted.

[Mike88]

Final results: (without postal votes)

54.6% Van der Bellen (1,780,429 votes)
19.1% Rosenkranz (622,489)
  8.4% Wallentin (273,596)
  8.2% Wlazny (268,518)
  6.0% Grosz (194,448)
  2.2% Brunner (70,683)
  1.6% Staudinger (50,896)

52.5% Turnout (3,340,609)

[Mike88]

Postal votes results:

65.3% Van der Bellen (519,163 votes)
11.9% Rosenkranz (94,608)
  8.6% Wlazny (68,492)
  6.7% Wallentin (53,618)
  4.0% Grosz (31,494)
  1.9% Brunner (14,782)
  1.7% Staudinger (13,545) 

Total votes:

56.7% Van der Bellen (2,299,592 votes)
17.7% Rosenkranz (717,097)
  8.3% Wlazny (337,010)
  8.1% Wallentin (327,214)
  5.6% Grosz (225,942)
  2.1% Brunner (85,465)
  1.6% Staudinger (64,411)

65.2% Turnout (4,148,079)

[Mike88]

Lower Austria regional election: SORA/ORF projection:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1619728892884918272

ÖVP loses its majority and FPÖ surpasses SPÖ to become the 2nd largest party.

[Mike88]

What's driving up FPÖ support lately? Disappointment over the ÖVP? I noticed that they rebounded nationally as well, competing with the SPÖ for first place, even polling slightly ahead in most surveys. It's depressing so many people supporting this joke of a party.

From what I'm aware, the SPÖ leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner has been losing popularity and is not seen as an alternative to the ÖVP. Plus, the scandals around ÖVP, in the last few years, damaged the party's image, plus the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the economic issues around it, could have a negative impact in voters minds, Austria is not a NATO member, and FPÖ has been blaming both Russia and NATO for the war.

A scenario poll in which the incumbent governor of Burgenland, Hans Peter Doskozil, leads the SPÖ, puts the party well ahead of FPÖ and ÖVP.

[Mike88]

Tbf (if we’re thinking of the same poll), that scenario poll was commissioned by the Burgenland SPÖ (see below).

Ah, right. Wasn't aware of that. Because they did also a poll with the current leader, I assume it was a normal monthly poll. But, he's quite popular within SPÖ and as governor of Burgenland, right?

Anyway, the preliminary results of the Lower Austria regional elections:

39.9% ÖVP (-9.7), 23 seats (-6)
24.2% FPÖ (+9.4), 14 (+6)
20.7% SPÖ (-3.3), 12 (-1)
  7.6% GRÜNE (+1.2), 4 (+1)
  6.7% NEOS (+1.5), 3 (nc)
  1.0% Others (+0.9)

71.5% Turnout (+5.0)

Results from here: https://www.noe.gv.at/wahlen/L20231/Index.html