🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Astatine]

Green Party candidate said in an Arabic Show:

"By Allah, we have spoken about this topic before […] For the well-being of the children, we want to arbitrate between the parents. It is a good thing and we will try to solve this social problem even though we are against the laws of this country because these laws protect women and give them custody rights and also the rights to raise children."

Now that's woke lol

Important to note that the Greens have distanced themselves from these views and say they will "deal with it" after the election.

https://www.oe24.at/wien-wahl-2020/mega-wirbel-um-gruenen-kandidat-abdelati-krimi/449162908

Should be noted that the guy is ranked #40 on the Green list for Vienna.

Even if the Greens get 25%, he would not make it into parliament ...

But it's no secret that many Muslim/Arab immigrants have pretty disturbing, backwards views.

Could he still get into Parliament with enough preferential votes (Vorzugsstimmen)?

[Tender Branson]

Green Party candidate said in an Arabic Show:

"By Allah, we have spoken about this topic before […] For the well-being of the children, we want to arbitrate between the parents. It is a good thing and we will try to solve this social problem even though we are against the laws of this country because these laws protect women and give them custody rights and also the rights to raise children."

Now that's woke lol

Important to note that the Greens have distanced themselves from these views and say they will "deal with it" after the election.

https://www.oe24.at/wien-wahl-2020/mega-wirbel-um-gruenen-kandidat-abdelati-krimi/449162908

Should be noted that the guy is ranked #40 on the Green list for Vienna.

Even if the Greens get 25%, he would not make it into parliament ...

But it's no secret that many Muslim/Arab immigrants have pretty disturbing, backwards views.

Could he still get into Parliament with enough preferential votes (Vorzugsstimmen)?

Theoretically, but one needs such a huge amount that it’s impossible for such a nobody.

Besides, Austrian voters do not use preference votes that much, they only vote for a party.

[Tender Branson]

For the first time in history, Austria will use actual exit polls for the Vienna state election on Sunday.

In all elections until now, 1st projections by TV stations after polls closed were made based on already-counted precincts. Based on these counted precincts and historical voting trends, it was possible to make relatively good projections.

This time it is different, because half of Vienna voters will vote early and by post.

Postal votes will be counted on Monday (and probably Tuesday as well, because of the amount).

That's why the 1st projections on Sunday at 5pm when polls close will be based on exit polls (OGM for ServusTV) or based on election weekend telephone interviews of voters (SORA for the public ORF).

Those exit polls will have a bigger margin of error than the usual projections incl. the precincts (+/- 1%, rather than +/- 0.5%).

[Tender Branson]

Election administration and logistics by the City of Vienna and the Postal Service is A+

With 400.000-500.000 expected early and postal votes, there are no reports of long lines at the 23 district voting centers.

Delivery of postal ballots is smooth too, with postal workers being instructed to only deliver the ballots to the person who requested it. Not even family members can accept it. The postal workers are also not allowed to deploy the ballot into the postal box of the requesting person together with regular mail.

The postal worker needs to check the picture ID before handing over the postal ballot to the requestee and needs confirmation by signature, to rule out abuse.

If the requestee is not home, the postal worker takes the ballot back to the postal office, where the requestee can pick it up later with a picture ID such as a passport or driving licence.

The 2016 Constitutional Court ruling really made our elections much safer.

[Tender Branson]

Funny story out of Hohenems, Vorarlberg (a city of ca. 20.000 people):

After the municipal elections there, in which the FPÖ-mayor was easily re-elected with 64% of the vote, the city council was about to elect a Vice-Mayor.

The city-FPÖ elected the Green candidate Patricia Tschallener as Vice Mayor, instead of the ÖVP-guy. The ÖVP came in 2nd after the FPÖ in the election, slightly ahead of the Greens.

The FPÖ voted for the Green because of the "disturbing political conduct of the ÖVP recently".

https://vorarlberg.orf.at/stories/3069743/

[Tender Branson]

Right now, the Vienna TV debate between all 6 major candidates is taking place on ORF at the historic city hall of Vienna:

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/TV-Konfrontation-der-Spitzenkandidaten-zur-Wien-Wahl-2020/14086733

This is by far the most important debate ahead of the Sunday election.

Strache remains an excellent debater, who knows how to score punches.

I guess he may actually have the biggest potential to surprise on Sunday, together with the SPÖ and the Beer Party.

Blümel (ÖVP) and the current Austrian Finance Minister (and therefore a carpetbagger) is disgustingly slick and slimy.

I cannot imagine how Vienna voters would vote for such a snobby guy and outfit his party with a 12% gain ... I hope the ÖVP ends up with a 6% gain and at 15% instead.

Mayor Ludwig (SPÖ) is doing just fine in those debates. It also seems Hebein from the Greens has a better performance today compared to earlier debates.

The NEOS guy is gunning for an SPÖ-NEOS coalition, with him taking the education city council post.

[Tender Branson]

Final Ö24 poll ahead of the Vienna election on Sunday:



Turnout:

78% are certain to vote, which would be even higher turnout than the 75% in the polarized 2015 election.

I think that’s impossible. Recent state elections have all seen turnout falling compared to the polarized 2015 election cycle. I don’t see why Vienna should be different. I expect 68%.

https://www.oe24.at/wien-wahl-2020/wien-wahl-die-letzte-umfrage/449401286

[Tender Branson]

The City of Vienna should release at some point in the evening today the number of total absentee/postal ballots issued for the election.

It’s already pretty clear it will be a record amount !

[Tender Branson]

The City of Vienna should release at some point in the evening today the number of total absentee/postal ballots issued for the election.

It’s already pretty clear it will be a record amount !

382.214 were issued.

That’s not as many as expected (400.000 to 500.000), but about twice the number from 2015.

Requests were sky-high early on, but the last week now was pretty bad in terms of requests.

In a 70% turnout election, this would mean ca. 40% of all votes would by early or by post.

https://www.wien.gv.at/presse/2020/10/09/wien-wahl-2020-382-214-wahlkarten-ausgestellt

[Tender Branson]

The City of Vienna should release at some point in the evening today the number of total absentee/postal ballots issued for the election.

It’s already pretty clear it will be a record amount !

382.214 were issued.

That’s not as many as expected (400.000 to 500.000), but about twice the number from 2015.

Requests were sky-high early on, but the last week now was pretty bad in terms of requests.

In a 70% turnout election, this would mean ca. 40% of all votes would by early or by post.

https://www.wien.gv.at/presse/2020/10/09/wien-wahl-2020-382-214-wahlkarten-ausgestellt

Out of the 382.214 absentee ballots issued, 21.651 were for EU-citizens - which are only allowed to vote in the district elections.

That means 360.563 were issued for the state election (in which only Austrian citizens are eligible).

1.133.010 citizens are eligible to vote on Sunday.

Therefore, 31.82% requested a postal ballot - of which ca. 90% will be returned and counted.

That would be 28.64% of all eligible voters.

In a 75% turnout election, 38% of all ballots cast would be early/absentee/post.

In a 70% turnout election, 41% of all ballots cast would be early/absentee/post.

In a 65% turnout election, 44% of all ballots cast would be early/absentee/post.

If 40% of all ballots cast are going to be early/absentee/post, it would need a 71.6% turnout.

[Tender Branson]

Final FPÖ-Vienna campaign event today:



Not many masks, no distance ...

[Tender Branson]

Today:

100-year anniversary of the 1920 Carinthia Referendum.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_Carinthian_plebiscite

After WW1, troops from the newly formed SHS Kingdom (= Yugoslavia) invaded the South-East of Carinthia, an Austrian state.

Carinthians launched a counter-offensive, winning back most of the area.

The South-East of Carinthia at the time was inhabitated by mostly Slovenian-speaking people.

Eventually, a referendum was set in the majority-Slovene zone for 10 October 1920, in which 59% opted to remain with Austria, while 41% opted to join the newly created Yugoslav SAS state.



An interesting aspect of the referendum was that many Carinthian Slovenes voted to remain with Carinthia/Austria and NOT join Yugoslavia. Especially a lot of Slovene workers, who thought that Austria's labour laws and benefits at the time were far more progressive than Yugloslav labour laws and benefits.

On the other hand, many wealthy Austrian-German owners of large property in Yugoslavia at the time (land owners, factory owners) voted for joining Yugoslavia ...

There's an event in Klagenfurt right now, attended by Austrian President VdB and Slovenian President Pahor.

[Tender Branson]

A few impressive statistics for the Vienna election tomorrow:

Vienna will have almost exactly 1.920 million inhabitants tomorrow.

Of those, 1.133 million are citizens and older than 16, therefore eligible to vote (59%).

296.000 are younger than 16 and not eligible (15%).

Another 491.000 are older than 16, but not eligible because foreigners (26%).

That means more than 30% of those who would be older than 16 are not eligible to vote.

Vienna's population has increased by 230.000 in the past 10 years, or by 12%.

Some vote-rich districts like Donaustadt have increased by 30% and are growing like 3rd world countries.

The number of Austrian citizens in Vienna has decreased by more than 20.000 though in the past 10 years (more deaths than births, "white flight" to the suburbs and abroad, which cannot be compensated with naturalisations).

[Tender Branson]

Destroyed electoral posters in Vienna (slideshow):

https://sway.office.com/5Wlp8oGFHe8HnfBq

[Tender Branson]

This one's good, because it's full of satire:

[Tender Branson]

Best ad I've seen in years:

Source: BEER Party

[Tender Branson]

Today: Vienna state election

Vienna is the capital of 🇦🇹 Austria 🇦🇹 and has ca. 2 million people.

The current city government is Red-Green (SPÖ-Green).



There are 2 elections:

* 1.133 million voters (Citizens older than 16 only) elect 100 seats in the city council

* 1.363 million voters (Citizens + EU citizens 16+) elect 23 new district councils

Polls are open from 7am (which is in 30 minutes) to 5pm.

A first projection from SORA for the public ORF will come shortly after 5pm and is based on telephone interviews with voters during the weekend and will carry a MoE of ca. 2-2.5%

Other, private TV stations will use an exit poll.

Then, around 6pm, SORA/ORF will release their 1st projection based on already-counted precincts. This projection will already have a lower MoE of ca. 1.5%

Because there’s a new record for absentee ballots (382.000), there will be a final projection with all Election Day precincts counted + absentee ballot estimate.

All Election Day votes should be counted by 8-10pm, so the final projection should come then, with a MoE of ca. 1% (the postal ballots will get counted on Monday & maybe Tuesday too).

There will be tight COVID security measures at the polling places and extra mobile polling commissions which are visiting the sick and quarantined at home, so they can cast their votes too.

Turnout was a high 75% in 2015, but I expect it to drop to 65-70%.

Here you can read more:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Viennese_state_election

[Tender Branson]

Voting is already well underway ...

 

5/6 frontrunners have already voted early by absentee ballot, only Mayor Michael Ludwig from the SPÖ voted just a few minutes ago in-person:

[Tender Branson]

Twitter #beifunk is used by Austrian poll workers to tweet about polling station activity, such as turnout.

Actual turnout numbers and results are strictly forbidden though.

It seems people are now starting to stream into the polling stations:

https://twitter.com/Matthias_Arth/status/1315206479029428224

https://twitter.com/realDa_Kir/status/1315205204623732736

[Tender Branson]

Voting is smooth, people are wearing their masks, bring their own pens and keep distance.

https://twitter.com/mayer_michl/status/1315210651804073985

https://twitter.com/hk_net/status/1315211851039473664

https://twitter.com/Duncrow/status/1315185594658705409

[Tender Branson]

An independent election observer for the Vienna election today:



PS: turnout needs to be around 40-50% in the precincts today for a reasonable 70% turnout overall. About 26% of all eligible voters voted early or by postal ballot. So far, there are mixed reports about turnout: some precinct workers say "moderate", others say "high turnout" and others "boring". It's hard to get a uniform picture, because Vienna has 1.500 precincts today.

[Tender Branson]

Polls close in ca. 1.5 hours.

It seems there will be 3 different trend projections at 5pm.

* SORA/ARGE/Hajek for the ORF, PULS 4, ATV, PULS 24 and the APA (n=4.000)

* OGM for ServusTV (n=1.000)

* Research Affairs for Ö24 (n=1.000+)

All of those will be based on election weekend phone+online interviews with early/postal voters as well as interviews with actual voters leaving the precincts.

They will not include already-counted precincts yet.

Only the 1st projections at around 6pm will include those.

[Tender Branson]

A British woman living in Vienna for more than 30 years went to a polling station to vote in the district council election, as usual.

She was told she cannot vote any more, because Brexit.

https://twitter.com/MichiHeiling/status/1315283748317999107

[Tender Branson]

Election afternoon/evening live coverage has started (polls close in 40 minutes):

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/ZIB-Spezial-Erste-Trendprognose/14087176

https://www.puls24.at/live

https://www.atv.at/livestream

https://www.servustv.com/jetzt-live

https://www.oe24.at/video

https://www.krone.at/videos

[Tender Branson]

Rumours are that the BEER Party could surprise today, cutting into the FPÖ and Strache vote.

We'll see.