🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

Polls for the Burgenland state election + Lower Austrian municipal elections are now open.

In Burgenland, 19.5% of eligible voters have already voted early or requested postal ballots - up from 14.2% in 2015.

Polls close at 4pm.

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland polls close in 2 minutes.

A 1st ORF/SORA projection will be out soon.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ wins the state election with 51% !

+9%

Absolute majority.

[Tender Branson]

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So Greens will not be needed in place of FPO. Neither FPO in place of FPO.

[Tender Branson]

So Greens will not be needed in place of FPO. Neither FPO in place of FPO.

Remains to be seen ...

A) the SPÖ has now dropped to 50%, and the others in parliament 47%. 3% for smaller parties. That should be enough for the SPÖ to keep their 19th seat in the 36-seat state parliament and the absolute majority. But there are still some votes counted in the north of the state.

B) the SPÖ could still bring in a coalition partner despite having an absolute majority. In Lower Austria, where the ÖVP has won an absolute majority as well - they picked the SPÖ as coalition partner for example.

[Tender Branson]

Only 4 towns left to count in the Burgenland state election.

The SPÖ is currently sitting at 50.02% statewide and among the 4 towns left the SPÖ underperformed relative to the state in 2015.

So I guess they will end up with 49.9% or something, but should retain their absolute majority because of the small parties that didn't make it.

[Tender Branson]

Final result for the Burgenland state election:




A very regional election result.

But still a very stunning result for the almost-voiceless SPÖ governor, in the current political climate which has turned sharply against the SPÖ.

As I have said before Dosko managed to gain from all parties because he’s a really popular and populist, pragmatic politician who easily connects with the working-class.

And in the Lower Austrian municipal elections, it seems the ÖVP cemented their strong position in the 567 towns which voted today.

[Tender Branson]

Final results of the Lower Austrian municipal elections today:



http://www.noe.gv.at/wahlen/G20201/Index.html?area=l

[mileslunn]

Final result for the Burgenland state election:




A very regional election result.

But still a very stunning result for the almost-voiceless SPÖ governor, in the current political climate which has turned sharply against the SPÖ.

As I have said before Dosko managed to gain from all parties because he’s a really popular and populist, pragmatic politician who easily connects with the working-class.

And in the Lower Austrian municipal elections, it seems the ÖVP cemented their strong position in the 567 towns which voted today.

Is the party tough on immigration as looking at Danish result and looking at how right wing populists are gaining more from traditional left than traditional centre-right, perhaps the new formula for left is hardline on immigration combined with left wing economic policies.  Off course might only work in areas with no metropolitan areas as those are different, but I see Greens being the future of your young urban woke types however Burgenland is pretty rural and lacks any large metro area.  Only real large cosmopolitan metro area in Austria is Vienna.

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ will govern alone in Burgenland now after their election win yesterday, dumping the FPÖ as their coalition partner.

https://www.krone.at/2086759

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ-Burgenland leader had stepped down after their election defeat on Sunday.

https://orf.at/stories/3152480

Meanwhile, the ÖVP-Green coalition will head to a 3-day work retreat at a hotel in Lower Austria to work out the 2020/2021 budgets, the first phase of the tax cuts/tax reform and the ecologicalisation of it.

Among the measures that the Greens want to pass into law soon:

A cheap public transport ticket: statewide for 365€/year and ca. 1.000€ Austria-wide
Significantly more expensive flight tickets for short range travels
A much higher tax on SUVs and other cars with high emmission output
Tax incentives for renewable cars
Toll fee increases for trucks with high emmission output

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000113877131/wie-die-koalition-bei-ihrer-klausur-ergruenen-will

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the ÖVP-Green coalition will head to a 3-day work retreat at a hotel in Lower Austria to work out the 2020/2021 budgets, the first phase of the tax cuts/tax reform and the ecologicalisation of it.

Among the measures that the Greens want to pass into law soon:

A cheap public transport ticket: statewide for 365€/year and ca. 1.000€ Austria-wide
Significantly more expensive flight tickets for short range travels
A much higher tax on SUVs and other cars with high emmission output
Tax incentives for renewable cars
Toll fee increases for trucks with high emmission output

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000113877131/wie-die-koalition-bei-ihrer-klausur-ergruenen-will

The whole ÖVP-Green cabinet took a joint bus ride to their hotel today, instead of using their expensive ministerial cars:



https://orf.at/stories/3152567/

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/klassenfahrt-feeling-im-koalitionsbus/400740588

Let’s see what they can get done ...

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna state election poll for the fall:



Strong start for DAÖ.

[Oryxslayer]

New Vienna state election poll for the fall:



Strong start for DAÖ.

If the numbers were theoretically here for a a ÖVP-Green-NEOS, do you think the parties would move towards forming such a government for the city, or would another SPÖ+ govt get formed? The advantages with such a govt would be alignment with the national coalition and they get to kick out the dominant SPÖ. The obvious disadvantage is that it would be a slim majority, and it would have three parties. It also would need to actually have a majority, which this poll doesn't say is there. Ever since the FPO split the attention on the right has shifted towards the two parties, pushing ÖVP-Green-NEOS away from the line they once were closer to.

[DL]

I will guess that Green voters in Vienna are much more leftwing than in Austria as a whole that they would be aghast if their party backed a rightwing coalition with OVP and NEOS

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why new SPO leader is so unpopular? Are there any potential replacements for her?

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna state election poll for the fall:



Strong start for DAÖ.

If the numbers were theoretically here for a a ÖVP-Green-NEOS, do you think the parties would move towards forming such a government for the city, or would another SPÖ+ govt get formed? The advantages with such a govt would be alignment with the national coalition and they get to kick out the dominant SPÖ. The obvious disadvantage is that it would be a slim majority, and it would have three parties. It also would need to actually have a majority, which this poll doesn't say is there. Ever since the FPO split the attention on the right has shifted towards the two parties, pushing ÖVP-Green-NEOS away from the line they once were closer to.

They would try, but as you said the numbers are not there.

I expect the Ludwig-SPÖ to recover to around 40% by the fall state election, while ÖVP and Greens should drop a bit.

The SPÖ will then enter coalition talks with either Greens or the ÖVP.

The fragmentation of the Far-Right continues: I expect both the FPÖ and DAÖ to get around 8-10% in the election.

The situation is bizarre: while the FPÖ alone would probably have dropped to 10-14% - the presence of DAÖ and Strache create some kind of competition actually, which means their combined results will end up higher than with just the FPÖ (similarly to Salzburg in 2018 with FPÖ and FPS).

[Tender Branson]

I will guess that Green voters in Vienna are much more leftwing than in Austria as a whole that they would be aghast if their party backed a rightwing coalition with OVP and NEOS

I think they would indeed be more inclined to govern with the SPÖ again, but the numbers for VP-Greens-NEOS are not going to be there anyway ...

[Tender Branson]

Why new SPO leader is so unpopular? Are there any potential replacements for her?

She kinda has an Elizabeth Warren problem: she’s smart and highly educated, no dispute. She always mentions her working-class upbringing, but fails extremely to connect with that working-class. In other words: she’s not taken seriously and is not seen as a leadership personality, more like the doctor that she always was. Besides that, there were heavy intrigues going on within the SPÖ and fellow party people always lectured her about something.

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today (both with Strache's DAÖ):

Ö24/Research Affairs

39% ÖVP
17% Greens
17% SPÖ
11% FPÖ
10% NEOS
  5% DAÖ
  1% Others

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-FPOe-bald-nur-noch-einstellig/415511780

ATV Trend/Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies

40% ÖVP
18% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
14% Greens
  9% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

With Doskozil instead of Rendi-Wagner as SPÖ-leader:

38% ÖVP
21% SPÖ
15% Greens
14% FPÖ
  8% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

https://www.heute.at/s/-kanzler-doskozil-ist-beliebter-als-rendi-wagner-40690362

[Tender Branson]

The NYT has a lengthy article about Alma Zadic:

A Onetime ‘Refugee Child’ Takes On Austria’s Far Right

Alma Zadic arrived in Vienna from Bosnia when she was 10. Now, she is the justice minister in an awkward coalition of liberal Greens and hard-line, anti-immigrant conservatives.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/europe/austria-greens-alma-zadic.html

Otherwise, not a lot happening right now. ÖVP-Greens are working on their tax reform/cut plans and ecologicalisation of it and "greener" infrastructure and public transport + on the new budgets for 2020/2021 (with a surplus despite all of it !), and which will be presented in March and passed in parliament some time before summer.

[Tender Branson]

Polls remain quite stable with the ÖVP around 39-40% and the Greens at 17%.

The SPÖ is around 17-18%, the FPÖ at 11-15% and NEOS around 9-10%.

Former FPÖ-leader Strache broke his knee at a skiing trip in East Tyrol recently and needed surgery, after trying to jump 20 meters on a halfpipe (like young kids do).

He then posted on Facebook that a 50-year guy like him should stop pretending to be a teenager ...

In other news, the Defense Minister Claudia Tanner is taking on Airbus, the company which provided us the costly Eurofighter jets - that were purchased with massive corruption under the Schüssel government.

Airbus has recently agreed to a 4 Bio. € court settlement fine in the US. During the trials there it emerged that Airbus has received some 55 Mio. € in corruption money from the Schüssel government for the purchase.

Tanner says she wants to get out of the Eurofighter contract with Airbus if they don’t compensate Austria for the overpriced fighter jets and corruption money.

[Tender Branson]

So, the Airbus/Eurofighter jet corruption scandal from 15-20 years ago is in the media again (which helped the SPÖ win elections back then as an opposition party !).

What is the SPÖ doing now ?

* Party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner has nothing better to do than announcing a leadership confirmation vote among party members in March/April !

* Hans-Peter Doskozil (Gov. of Burgenland and just re-elected with an absolute majority in the state election, see above) has announced that his soon-to-be-wife Julia will become an aide in his cabinet !

Both decisions are being attacked by the media and really ... WTF ?

The SPÖ could position themselves as an anti-corruption party, but choose once again to be preoccupied with themselves instead ...