🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

Final results of the Carinthia municipal elections yesterday:

39.9% SPÖ (-0.3% compared to 2015)
24.3% ÖVP (+1.6%)
13.8% FPÖ (-4.2%)
  4.3% TK (+4.0%)
  3.6% Greens (-2.1%)
  1.4% NEOS (+0.1%)
12.7% Indy lists (often former SPÖ, ÖVP and FPÖ) (+0.9%)

City council seats won statewide:

948 SPÖ (-36 compared to 2015)
682 ÖVP (+53)
355 FPÖ (-95)
  40 Greens (-28)
  35 TK (+22)
    8 NEOS (+1)
404 Indy lists (+55)

Turnout:

67.3% (-3.9%)

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/grwahl2021

https://orf.at/wahl/kaernten21/choropleth

Surprisingly, the SPÖ was a loser in this election statewide. Along with the Greens and the FPÖ.

ÖVP, TK, Indy lists and NEOS are the winners.

28 of the 132 towns will have mayoral runoffs in 2 weeks.

[Astatine]

Do you think TK will survive on a medium-term basis in Carinthia as political force (just like Liste Fritz kinda did in Tyrol)?

[rob in cal]

  Tender, what do you think of the Klagenfurt mayor runoff. In theory if the vast majority of FPO and OVP voters go for the TK candidate Scheider, he'd be in good shape.

[Tender Branson]

Do you think TK will survive on a medium-term basis in Carinthia as political force (just like Liste Fritz kinda did in Tyrol)?

I think so, yes.

They are an alternative protest vote next to the FPÖ (like Fritz in Tyrol), without much of the radicalism of the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, what do you think of the Klagenfurt mayor runoff. In theory if the vast majority of FPO and OVP voters go for the TK candidate Scheider, he'd be in good shape.

Mayor Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ) could definitely be in trouble considering those 1st round results.

It was already pretty close in 2015 and Scheider still seems to enjoy support from his time as mayor there. Also, MLM is not a very popular mayor if we believe the OGM poll from before the election, which showed her favourable ratings at -20. Scheider had even worse favourable ratings than her, which might be a reason she could pull it out. But I guess it will be quite close.

[njwes]

Russia Nominates Austrian Ex-Minister Kneissl to Rosneft Board

[Tender Branson]

Russia Nominates Austrian Ex-Minister Kneissl to Rosneft Board

[njwes]

That's Kurz yeah?

[ale62]

Ex  Chancellor of Austria

[Tender Branson]

That's Kurz yeah?

Yes (+ Norbert Hofer).

Ex  Chancellor of Austria

Not yet.

[Tender Branson]

Monthly "Profil" magazine poll:

35% ÖVP (-2.5% vs. 2019 election)
24% SPÖ (+2.8%)
17% FPÖ (+0.8%)
12% NEOS (+3.9%)
10% Greens (-3.9%)
  2% Others (-1.1%)

Quelle:

UNIQUE Research. Methodenmix: Telefonische und Online-Befragung, Zielgruppe: Österreichische Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren, Stichprobengröße: 800 Befragte, Maximale Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: +/-3,5%, Feldarbeit: 1. bis 4. März 2021

45% ÖVP-Green government
53% SPÖ-FPÖ-NEOS opposition

52% ÖVP-FPÖ rightwing government
46% SPÖ-Green-NEOS left-liberal government

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-regierung-verliert-an-zustimmung/401209453

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-Kickl (= former Interior Minister and wannabe party leader) attacks Israel at the big anti-COV protests yesterday:

In the Prater park, the FPÖ club chairman then spoke of a government in a "power frenzy", identified a division in society and "propaganda" in the media; his audience chanted the usual "lying press" as a reaction. The EU health policy is a "harmonized power game" because "those up there want to dominate us", Kickl said and also addressed the visit of Chancellor Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) to Israel on Thursday because of the vaccines: There is a "health apartheid" there, the country is currently one of the "unfreedom". Some anti-Semitic comments were then heard from the audience. During the 40 minutes, Kickl chanted several times "Kurz must go." and ended with a self-written poem about the "Corona tyranny".

https://www.sn.at/panorama/oesterreich/anti-corona-demos-in-wien-mit-vielen-anzeigen-und-kickl-rede-100703629

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile:

Former FPÖ leader Strache (also at the Covid protests yesterday in Vienna) is now a mask producer.

https://www.krone.at/2348978

He has a stake at a Serbian company that produces them and is part of another Vienna mask company ...

[Tender Branson]

28 of the 132 towns will have mayoral runoffs in 2 weeks.

That's tomorrow.

I expect a close runoff in the capital Klagenfurt, where I expect the SPÖ-mayor M-L M-T to be re-elected with 50.5% to 54%.

Spittal an der Drau might actually vote for their former ex-SPÖ/ex-TS mayor Köfer over the SPÖ-incumbent (who did poorly in round one).

In most other cities, the SPÖ should be favoured from round one results.

Turnout is probably down sharply from round one, because in Klagenfurt for example only 6.000 postal ballots were requested vs. 11.000 in round one.

Polls close at 4pm, results are final during the (late) evening.

[Tender Branson]

Satire ?

Kickl criticizes Kurz for "EU bashing"

"Who should still trust this Chancellor who betrays his partners both at the national and EU level and stabs them in the back when it is for his own benefit ?" asks FPÖ club chairman Herbert Kickl in a press release in response to the statements of the ÖVP Chancellor Sebastian Kurz on the EU's vaccine procurement.

The FPÖ criticized Kurz for his "desperate EU bashing". This is "implausible. In November, the Chancellor applauded Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during a video conference, who spoke of vaccine procurement as one of the great success stories of the EU," says Kickl, "just one day after a poll that was catastrophic for the Chancellor became known in which almost two thirds of all respondents distrust the vaccine from AstraZeneca, which is mainly bought by the government, Sebastian Kurz accidentally discovered the guilt of the EU."

[Flyersfan232]

I haven’t seen anything on the presidential election next year could someone give us insight on what we know so far?

[Tender Branson]

I haven’t seen anything on the presidential election next year could someone give us insight on what we know so far?

Neither have we people living in the country seen a lot so far ...

Summary:

# President VdB hasn’t said yet if he’ll run for re-election, or retire
# Norbert Hofer has been very vague about another candidacy, but won’t run if VdB runs again
# ÖVP & SPÖ will only run own candidates if VdB retires
# not sure what NEOS plans
# no Independent candidates are out of the closet either

[Tender Branson]

Kurz whining around about the unequal EU vaccine distribution, which he himself voted for:

https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-eu-coronavirus-vaccines-distribution-european-commission-sebastian-kurz-summit/

[Tender Branson]

I haven’t seen anything on the presidential election next year could someone give us insight on what we know so far?

Some hypothetical polls (by a mediocre pollster who overestimated Hofer in 2016):

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls (Research Affairs/Ö24 + Hajek/ATV/APA):

37/35% ÖVP
23/25% SPÖ
16/17% FPÖ
11/11% NEOS
  9/10% Greens

Do you want to get vaccinated in general ?

65% Yes (Research Affairs/Ö24)
73% Yes (Hajek/ATV/APA)

Do you want to get vaccinated with the following vaccines (Research Affairs) ?

78% Yes - with Biontech/Pfizer
60% Yes - with Moderna
61% No  - with AstraZeneca

ÖVP-Greens job approval (Hajek)

42% approve
55% disapprove

86% of ÖVP voters and 67% of Green voters approve.

90% of FPÖ voters, 79% of SPÖ voters and 67% of NEOS voters disapprove.

There are also signs of a Absetzbewegung among the Greens:

A majority of Green voters (incl. me) now favour an SPÖ-Green-NEOS government.

Also, happiness with democracy in Austria has crashed over the past year:

Only 49% are happy with how democracy works in the country, 48% unhappy. That's down from 78% in April last year.

46% say that there's justice in Austria or that things are just, 45% think there's no justice in Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Health Minister Rudy Anschober (Greens) has been sick and totally absent from work for a week now.

He once suffered a burnout already and there are rumours he might quit the stressful job soon.

Especially after the ÖVPs constant attacks and intrigant backstabbing against him and his office (aides).

Anschober is a good guy, who probably got worn out by the filthy Kurz and the disgusting ÖVP creatures supporting him.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125019763/streit-um-impfungenoevp-fordert-suspendierungen-im-gesundheitsressort

[Tender Branson]

28 Carinthia municipal runoffs today.

A first result from the city of Weißensee:

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20639.html

ÖVP pickup from FPÖ (2015).

Karoline Turnschek elected mayor with 58.5% in a 85.5% turnout runoff.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP picks up the city of Irschen, by defeating the incumbent SPÖ mayor.

Manfred Dullnig defeats mayor Gottfried Mandler by 57-43.

Mandler won outright back in 2015 with 68%.

Turnout in the runoff was higher (87%) than in the 1st round (85%).

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20611.html

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ pickup in the city of Kirchbach.

In the re-match from 2015, Markus Salcher defeats incumbent mayor Hermann Jantschgi (FPÖ) by 57-43.

It was the other way around in 2015 with 57-43 for the FPÖ guy.

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20306.html

[Tender Branson]

A sign of things to come in the capital Klagenfurt ?

In nearby Keutschach at the Lake, the Team Carinthia challenger defeats the incumbent mayor from the SPÖ by 52-48.

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmstichwahl2021/BS2021_20412.html