🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

Kleine Zeitung and OGM will also release a poll for the capital city Klagenfurt (105k people) this weekend.

34% SPÖ (+3.3% vs. 2015 election)
20% ÖVP (+1.2%)
15% TK (+14.7%)
12% Greens (-2.1%)
12% FPÖ (-12.9%)
  5% NEOS (+1.5%)
  2% Others

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/grwahl2015/GR2015_20101.html

Mayoral direct vote:

41% Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ) (+10.9% vs. 2015 election)
20% Christian Scheider (Team Kärnten) (+20%, but actually -11.1%)
14% Markus Geiger (ÖVP) (-5.7%)
12% Wolfgang Germ (FPÖ) (-19.1%)
  8% Frank Frey (Grüne) (-0.7%)
  5% Janos Juvan (Neos) (+3.5%)

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmwahl2015/BD2015_20101.html

Mayoral direct vote - RUNOFF:

57% Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ) (2015 runoff: 53.3%)
33% Christian Scheider (Team Kärnten) (2015 runoff: 46.7%)
10% Undecided

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/kaernten/5940086/Gemeinderatswahl-in-Klagenfurt_Scheider-mischt-in-Klagenfurt

[Tender Branson]

New Krone/IFDD polls are backing up the polls from KZ/OGM (even though in the IFDD Klagenfurt poll, results indicate a SPÖ-FPÖ mayoral runoff):





https://www.krone.at/2347594

[Tender Branson]

New "Market" poll for the "Standard" shows an SPÖ-surge:

37% ÖVP (-0.5%)
25% SPÖ (+3.8%)
14% FPÖ (-2.2%)
12% Greens (-1.9%)
10% NEOS (+1.9%)
  2% Others (-1.1%)

Dokumentation: Market, n= 1000 repräsentativ für die wahlberechtigte österreichische Bevölkerung. Online-Befragung, ergänzt mit CAPI-Samplepoints. Erhebungszeitraum: 15. bis 17. Februar 2021.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000124319631/unzufriedenheit-mit-corona-management-der-regierung-steigt

[Tender Branson]

2 days before the Carinthia statewide municipal elections, 88 postal votes in a town have been stolen from a safe inside the municipal building, along with ca. 2.500€ in cash.

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092311

It is fairly likely that the Carinthia election commission will order a re-vote in that town at a later date.

[Tender Branson]

More than 105.000 postal ballots have been issued in Carinthia for the Sunday election:

https://www.diepresse.com/5943212/rekordzahl-von-105612-wahlkarten-in-karnten

That means every 3rd voter will vote by post, assuming a 60% turnout.

23% of all eligible voters requested one.

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections in Carinthia tomorrow !

The state of Carinthia used to be a stronghold of the Social Democrats (SPÖ) ever since.



In the early 1980s, Jörg Haider (FPÖ, far-right populist), rose to power in the state and won election after election until his car-crash-death in 2008.

In the 2009 "Jörg Haider remembrance vote" (state and municipal elections) - his successor party BZÖ, won a landslide victory.

In the years after, all the corruption and financial mismanagement under Haider and his successors came to light and voters switched back to the Social Dems (SPÖ) in the 2015 municipal elections and even more so, in the 2018 state election, missing an absolute majority by only a single seat in the state parliament (the current government therefore is SPÖVP).

The SPÖ is expected to retain a big statewide lead tomorrow, but the extent is unclear.

The elections tomorrow are basically about 270 individual elections (2 elections in all of the 135 or so towns and cities, 1x mayoral direct vote and 1x city council).

A statewide result will still be aggregated out of interest, because the election could be a COVID protest election of some sort.

It will be interesting to see if there's any effect from federal politics (usually not).

Will Kurz's ÖVP remain stable after all the Ibiza fallout and the lagging vaccinations ?

Has the FPÖ bottomed out after Ibiza already and is on the upswing again ?

Are the Greens falling because of the federal trend down, or are they able to regain a footing in Carinthia after they got destroyed there in 2018 ?

Are NEOS consolidating support ?

There's also a trend towards Independent lists in municipal elections from election to election, making comparisons of the major parties between elections more and more complicated. But this is particularly a problem in ÖVP-states such as Tyrol and Vorarlberg, in Carinthia not as much yet.

The outcomes in the 2 largest cities Klagenfurt and Villach are basically set in stone, with SPÖ victories.

Not sure what's going on in Wolfsberg, the 3rd-largest city ...

But the outcome in the 4th-largest, Spittal an der Drau, is a nailbiter according to Research Affairs polls:

Gerhard Köfer, mayor of the city between 1997 and 2013, used to be in the SPÖ until 2012 - after which he quit the party for the Team Stronach.

Now, he wants his old job back with his "Team Carinthia" against the SPÖ incumbent Gerhard Pirih - who won outright in the 1st round with 56%.

The Team Carinthia originated from the Team Stronach and is made of former FPÖ- and BZÖ-members as well ...

Political strength map by town (2018 state election, which is not directly comparable to municipal elections - but still):



SPÖ+Greens+NEOS tend to do well in the southern part of the state in the Klagenfurt-Villach basin and near Slovenia.

ÖVP+FPÖ+TK are doing well up north in the mountains and rural areas.

Polls will close at 4pm tomorrow and final results from most towns are expected a few hours later.

Counting postal votes will start on Monday.

Wiki link (German)

2015 results (statewide, German)

[Tender Branson]

2 days before the Carinthia statewide municipal elections, 88 postal votes in a town have been stolen from a safe inside the municipal building, along with ca. 2.500€ in cash.

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092311

It is fairly likely that the Carinthia election commission will order a re-vote in that town at a later date.

The stolen safe has been found, without the 2.500€ in cash, but with the undamaged & still sealed box of postal ballots inside.

The safe was dumped near a pile of wood and a farmer found it.

The mayor now wants to count those postal ballots tomorrow.

It remains to be seen if a party objects to the ballots being included in the tally or not ...

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092495

[Tender Branson]

2 days before the Carinthia statewide municipal elections, 88 postal votes in a town have been stolen from a safe inside the municipal building, along with ca. 2.500€ in cash.

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092311

It is fairly likely that the Carinthia election commission will order a re-vote in that town at a later date.

The stolen safe has been found, without the 2.500€ in cash, but with the undamaged & still sealed box of postal ballots inside.

The safe was dumped near a pile of wood and a farmer found it.

The mayor now wants to count those postal ballots tomorrow.

It remains to be seen if a party objects to the ballots being included in the tally or not ...

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092495

Polls in Carinthia are open, or will open soon.

PS:

The postal ballots that were stolen and found sealed and undamaged were ruled valid for counting yesterday evening by the town election commission in a unanimous vote.

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3092495

[Tender Branson]

It seems people in Carinthia are not really motivated to vote today ...

Only some people come and go, according to some reports.

This probably means turnout will slump from 71% in 2015 to around 50-55% today.

A massive drop.

Similar to the drop we saw in Catalonia recently.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, a new Vienna poll (Unique Research/"Krone", n=800, 19.-25. February):



https://www.krone.at/2353636

The current city government is SPÖ-NEOS, both of which are gaining - as is the FPÖ (because Strache is not included any longer). ÖVP/Greens are falling.

[Tender Branson]

Polls in Carinthia are closing ...

ORF Live Stream

[Tender Branson]

Result maps by town (132):

https://orf.at/wahl/kaernten21/choropleth

The upper map is for town council results, the lower map for mayoral direct election.

[Tender Branson]

First trends (based on smaller counted towns):

# FPÖ holding up really well
# ÖVP stable or gaining
# SPÖ gaining slightly
# turnout only down slightly

Greens and NEOS are virtually not existing/running in small towns.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ only declines by 2%, which is almost nothing compared to the big losses (often double digit losses) in all elections after the Ibiza scandal.

It seems as if the FPÖ has bottomed out and can re-gain protest voters from the Covid situation.

[Tender Branson]

In Ossiach, a lakeside tourist town, the FPÖ gains from 49% to 53%.

SPÖ & ÖVP gaining too.

Greens decimated.

Turnout stable at 81%.

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/grwahl2021/GR2021_21006.html

[Tender Branson]

As more aggregated town results come in, SPÖ and ÖVP are very stable compared to 2015 - while the FPÖ now declines by 5%.

The big winners so far are independent lists.

[Tender Branson]

State results website (better/faster than ORF):

City councils:

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/grwahl2021/

Mayors:

https://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmwahl2021/

[Tender Branson]

I’m pleasantly surprised that turnout in the already counted towns only went down from 85% to 82%.

But one can assume that the drop will be much larger in the larger towns ...

[CumbrianLefty]

Meanwhile, a new Vienna poll (Unique Research/"Krone", n=800, 19.-25. February):



https://www.krone.at/2353636

The current city government is SPÖ-NEOS, both of which are gaining - as is the FPÖ (because Strache is not included any longer). ÖVP/Greens are falling.

Is his outfit now officially defunct then?

[Tender Branson]

Is his outfit now officially defunct then?

Not „officially“, but 99%.

They have not posted any news on their website since November and after the Vienna election it basically fell apart anyway.

There was some speculation that Strache might try once more in the Upper Austrian state election later this year, but he would catastrophically fail there as well.

[Tender Branson]

There seems to be a pattern emerging in Carinthia as more votes are counted:

# There’s a big rural/urban divide that’s getting more polarizing. The ÖVP gains ground in rural areas, the SPÖ in urban/suburban areas.

# The SPÖ is doing better though in the rural eastern part, worse in the rural western part of the state.

[Tender Branson]

129 of 132 towns/cities were fully counted yesterday.

The 3 largest cities (Klagenfurt, Villach and Wolfsberg) will count their postal votes today, because a record amount was cast.

But the precinct results were completely released yesterday already and there was a big surprise in Klagenfurt (the capital):

The incumbent Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ) got a relatively weak result with around 30% and was actually topped by former mayor Christian Scheider (Team Carinthia, former FPÖ/FPK/BZÖ) with 31%. The 11.000 postal ballots could see Scheider behind, but it’s still going to be very close in the runoff.

In Villach, the SPÖ retained their absolute majority before postal votes are counted and the SPÖ mayor got re-elected with almost 60%.

In Wolfsberg, the SPÖ increased their absolute majority by 4% and the SPÖ mayor got easily re-elected with 67%.

The SPÖ suffered a big blow in Spittal an der Drau though, where their incumbent mayor only got 35% vs. 36% for the candidate from the Team Carinthia (Köfer), who used to be mayor between 1997 and 2013 for the SPÖ. He’s very likely to lose the runoff now.

[Tender Branson]

In Villach, (65k people), the grouping „Responsibility Earth“ got a huge 12%, while the Greens lost a few points.

The Greens generally did badly in towns they ran, with their results cut in half from 2015 almost everywhere.

The SPÖ, while almost no change in support statewide from 2015, lost many mayors - even before the runoffs. From 60, to no more than 53 - even if they would win all runoffs in two weeks.

The ÖVP gained everywhere, statewide by ca. 4-5%.

The FPÖ lost 3-4% on average.

[Tender Branson]

It looks as if turnout increased by a lot in Villach, once the postal ballots are counted:

https://villach.at/stadt-erleben/news/sprengel-wahlergebnis-der-stadt-villach

70-75% vs. 61% in 2015.

In Klagenfurt, turnout was probably down by 5-10% vs. 2015.

Statewide, turnout was pretty good after all: I estimate it at around 68-70%, down from 71%.

It will depend on the postal votes from the 3 largest cities though, which are counted today.

[Tender Branson]

It looks as if turnout increased by a lot in Villach, once the postal ballots are counted:

https://villach.at/stadt-erleben/news/sprengel-wahlergebnis-der-stadt-villach

70-75% vs. 61% in 2015.

In Klagenfurt, turnout was probably down by 5-10% vs. 2015.

Statewide, turnout was pretty good after all: I estimate it at around 68-70%, down from 71%.

It will depend on the postal votes from the 3 largest cities though, which are counted today.

It seems as if Villach included all returned postal ballots in their turnout estimate from yesterday already.

Which means turnout wasn't 70-75% with postals, but only 56%.

Down from 61% in 2015.

Only Klagenfurt is still missing until a final result.