🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[MaxQue]

Hopefully, SPO-Greens-NEOS gets a majority and flood Lower Austria with immigrants.

[Omega21]

Hopefully, SPO-Greens-NEOS gets a majority and flood Lower Austria with immigrants.

Yes, sure hope so!

And subsequently be buried politically for at least a decade to come 🤩🤩🤩🤩

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully, SPO-Greens-NEOS gets a majority and flood Lower Austria with immigrants.

Yes, sure hope so!

And subsequently be buried politically for at least a decade to come 🤩🤩🤩🤩

More like a century.

SPÖ-Greens-NEOS won’t happen though.

There’s a structural right-wing majority in all elections.

[Tender Branson]

More than 3 weeks before the Carinthia statewide municipal elections, demand for postal and early voting is enormous:

https://www.5min.at/202102351536/regelrechter-ansturm-schon-4000-wahlkarten-in-villach-ausgegeben

Typically, you can start requesting a postal ballot about 4 weeks before an election.

After the first 4 days, the requests so far are 3x the number of the total number before the 2015 elections !

Klagenfurt, Villach & other big cities have put containers outside their city halls where people can use „walk-by-voting“: immediately request a postal ballot through a window at the city hall, fill it out in the container nearby and drop it off through the window again. All outside in the fresh air.



Despite all of these measures, they still expect overall turnout to go down ...

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully, SPO-Greens-NEOS gets a majority and flood Lower Austria with immigrants.

Any particular reason why they should flood Lower Austria with immigrants and not the other 8 states ?

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" magazine poll on birthright citizenship (jus soli) vs. heritage citizenship (jus sanguinis):

45% of Austrians support the current heritage citizenship law (jus sanguinis)
44% of Austrians support the introduction of a birthright citizenship law (jus soli)
11% are undecided

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20210206_OTS0019/profil-umfrage-44-fuer-automatische-staatsbuergerschaft-bei-geburt-in-oesterreich

[Tender Branson]

Brutal new OGM poll out for Graz, the country’s 2nd-largest city - which votes in ca. 1 year:



The current city coalition is ÖVP-FPÖ.

Before that, it was ÖVP-SPÖ and before that ÖVP-Greens.

A KP-led government would be possible next year according to the poll, but I’m not sure if Greens and SPÖ would let it happen.

[Flyersfan232]

Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.

Would the ovp and fpo be willing to bury the hatchet if things go south with the greens? At the very least the fpo backing the government from outside?

Nobody really wants to work with the federal ÖVP these days.

Not the Greens, not the FPÖ, not the SPÖ.

Even many Greens in the govt right now with them are quietly saying that the power-hungry ÖVP is a ruthless, backstabbing entity that will do everything to destroy their smaller coalition partners with shady methods.

First, the ÖVP planted moles inside the SPÖ, which destroyed the SPÖ from the inside and as a result blew up the SPÖVP coalition.

Then, they organized (or at least aided the release and circulation of) the Ibiza-video that blew up their coalition with the FPÖ.

Now, they are using deportations of well-integrated children and other smear tactics to decimate their current coalition partner - the Greens.

if i was neos i would considering this after the next election

[Tender Branson]

if i was neos i would considering this after the next election

Before thinking about this, ÖVP/NEOS would need a majority.

Which is far from certain.

[Flyersfan232]

if i was neos i would considering this after the next election

Before thinking about this, ÖVP/NEOS would need a majority.

Which is far from certain.

Some recent polls showed it possible I believe

[Omega21]

New "Profil" magazine poll on birthright citizenship (jus soli) vs. heritage citizenship (jus sanguinis):

45% of Austrians support the current heritage citizenship law (jus sanguinis)
44% of Austrians support the introduction of a birthright citizenship law (jus soli)
11% are undecided

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20210206_OTS0019/profil-umfrage-44-fuer-automatische-staatsbuergerschaft-bei-geburt-in-oesterreich

Well then, better get to building 2 more bus terminals in Vienna, God knows half of the Balkans will be coming for "tourism" while 9 months pregnant.

Source: I am from the Balkans, and this would definitely happen.

[Tender Branson]

New IFDD poll:



https://www.krone.at/2336301

After their honeymoon in the first lockdown in March/April last year, it's now the opposite for ÖVP-Greens: the chaotic (EU) vaccination programme, the long 2nd and 3rd lockdowns and the slumping economy are finally taking a toll on the government.

Compared to the 2019 election results:

ÖVP: -2.5%
SPÖ: +2.8%
FPÖ: +1.8%
Greens: -3.9%
NEOS: +2.9%
Others: -1.1%

[TheSaint250]

A KP-led government would be possible next year according to the poll, but I’m not sure if Greens and SPÖ would let it happen.

When was the last time (if ever) that this happened in Graz?

[FrancoAgo]

Graz government is proportional, KPO has 2 on 7 member, the others are 3 OVP, 1 FPO and 1 Green

[Flyersfan232]

any up coming elections?

[Tender Branson]

A KP-led government would be possible next year according to the poll, but I’m not sure if Greens and SPÖ would let it happen.

When was the last time (if ever) that this happened in Graz?

Never.

[Tender Branson]

any up coming elections?

Read the thread title.

[Tender Branson]

Uh-oh:

Home of Austria’s finance minister raided by police



Anti-corruption police raided the home of Austria’s finance minister on Thursday as a sprawling, multiyear bribery investigation expanded its scope to the highest level of politics in the country.

Gernot Blümel, a close ally of chancellor Sebastian Kurz, has been formally named by the Office of the Prosecutor for Economic Affairs and Corruption (WKStA) as a suspect in its probe into bribery linked to Austria’s powerful gambling lobby.

Blümel attended an appointment at the prosecutor’s office on Thursday morning.

His home was searched by police from the Federal Anti-Corruption Bureau shortly afterwards, and included a team of forensic IT and accounting specialists.

“The investigations are based on the suspicion that a responsible person of a gambling company offered donations to a political party in return for the support of officials of the Republic of Austria in the case of a tax claim abroad threatening the company,” the WKStA said in a statement.

“I am glad that the conversation has now taken place,” Blümel told the media. “Now I know the accusations, they can be cleared up in a few words. I would never have, and have never, accepted donations from gambling companies, especially not if there was also a quid pro quo involved.”

Questions over the cosy relationship between gambling concessions and politicians have dogged politics in Austria for years.

The current probe focuses on relationships between politicians and Austria’s Novomatic, one of the largest gambling companies in the world, owned by the reclusive septuagenarian billionaire Johann Graf.

A spokesperson for Novomatic said the allegations were “false and incorrect”.

“Novomatic has never made any donation to any political party,” the spokesperson added. “Of course, we are co-operating with the authorities so that these incorrect allegations can be clarified quickly.”

Blümel said that the Austrian People’s party to which he belongs — and of which Kurz is the leader — had not accepted any donations from Novomatic. “I am ready at any time to contribute anything further necessary to enable a quick clarification and to refute the false accusations,” he added.

https://www.ft.com/content/24ecddcd-5c23-4a78-9a1b-950f7311a9a8

The long honeymoon for Kurz and the ÖVP (4 years now) will soon come to an end ... expect SPÖ, FPÖ and NEOS to rise sharply over the next months and years (for different reasons).

[Tender Branson]

Monthly "Profil" magazine poll shows ÖVP-Greens falling further and the 3 opposition parties all getting a higher result than in the 2019 election:

36% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
17% FPÖ
11% NEOS
10% Greens
  3% Others

Methodenmix:

Telefonische und Online-Befragung, Zielgruppe: Österreichische Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren, Stichprobengröße: 800 Befragte, Maximale Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: +/-3,5%, Feldarbeit: 8. bis 11. Februar 2021

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-leicht-ruecklaeufig-gruene-sacken-stark-ab/401187187

[Tender Branson]

Another day, another possibility for ÖVP-Greens to fall apart.

The opposition has called a special session of parliament for today and a no-confidence-vote for Finance Minister Blümel (ÖVP), see 2 posts above.

Before the vote, the Greens will announce if they vote with the opposition (which would be the end for the government).

The chances are ca. 95% though that the Greens will stick with the ÖVP and call on Blümel to explain himself fully in the plenum today ...

https://www.derstandard.at/jetzt/livebericht/2000124208092/gruene-verkuenden-entscheidung-ueber-misstrauensantrag-gegen-bluemel

[Tender Branson]

Another day, another possibility for ÖVP-Greens to fall apart.

The opposition has called a special session of parliament for today and a no-confidence-vote for Finance Minister Blümel (ÖVP), see 2 posts above.

Before the vote, the Greens will announce if they vote with the opposition (which would be the end for the government).

The chances are ca. 95% though that the Greens will stick with the ÖVP and call on Blümel to explain himself fully in the plenum today ...

https://www.derstandard.at/jetzt/livebericht/2000124208092/gruene-verkuenden-entscheidung-ueber-misstrauensantrag-gegen-bluemel

The Greens launched heavy verbal broadsides and accusations against the ÖVP today and called them "gestört" (= nuts) in their relationship with the judicial system and embezzlement with the gambling industry.

Ultimately, they still voted with the ÖVP to keep Blümel in office - because they said that Blümel so far is only a suspect in the investigation and not officially charged with a crime, or even sentenced.



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/sondersitzung-zur-causa-bluemel-im-live-stream/401190280

[Tender Branson]

For the Carinthia statewide municipal elections (town councils and mayors) next Sunday, a total of 465.256 people are eligible to vote.

This is about 900 higher than in 2015, but only because of an increase in EU-citizens eligible to vote:

Between 2015-2021, about 9.000 more EU-citizens are eligible to vote - while the number of Austrian citizens allowed to vote dropped by almost 10.000 people.

While there's a spike in postal and early voting, turnout is expected to drop by a lot because of the COV-situation, with many old people sitting it out.

Turnout in 2009 was 81% (Jörg Haider remembrance vote), but already dropped to 71% in 2015.

It is expected to be not higher than 62% this year, and might actually drop below 60% too ...

https://www.oe24.at/newsfeed/kaernten-wahlen-465-256-personen-sind-diesmal-wahlberechtigt/465628951

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24/Research Affairs poll (not very reliable, but still):

37% ÖVP
24% SPÖ
17% FPÖ
10% NEOS
  8% Greens
  4% Others

ÖVP-Green job approval: 41-59

Also, lowest support for the Greens in several years.

n=1.000, Feb. 15-18, MoE= +/- 3.2%.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/umfrage-tuerkis-gruene-koalition-rutscht-ab/465866463

[Tender Branson]

The "Kleine Zeitung" newspaper has asked pollster OGM to do a poll in Villach, the 2nd-largest city in Carinthia (70k people), for the municipal election next Sunday.

48% SPÖ (-0.7% vs. 2015 election)
18% ÖVP (-2.5%)
14% FPÖ (-0.5%)
  8% Greens (n.c.)
  7% Responsibility Earth (+3.4%)
  3% NEOS (+0.6%)
  2% Others

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/grwahl2015/GR2015_20201.html

Mayoral direct vote:

58% Günther Albel (SPÖ) (+2.5% vs. 2015 election)
18% Katharina Spanring (ÖVP) (-6.7%)
11% Erwin Baumann (FPÖ) (-1.1%)
  7% Sabina Schautzer (Grüne) (+1.4%)
  4% Gerald Dobernig (Erde) (+4.0%)
  2% Bernhard Zebedin (Neos) (+0.9%)

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/bgmwahl2015/BD2015_20201.html

Turnout:

12% already voted
48% will definitely vote => 60% turnout

22% will probably vote
17% will probably not vote

In 2015, turnout was 61%.

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/kaernten/5939460/Gemeinderatswahl-in-Villach_Grosse-OGMUmfrage_Alles-klar-fuer

The Greens seem to hold well in municipal elections, contrary to federal polls.

And that's even with opposing Green-minded lists in Carinthia, like "Responsibility Earth".

[Tender Branson]

Kleine Zeitung and OGM will also release a poll for the capital city Klagenfurt (105k people) this weekend.

Unlike in Villach, where the Greens are split in two, it's the FPÖ that's split in two in Klagenfurt this time - with the former BZÖ/FPÖ mayor there under Haider now running for the Team Carinthia against the local FPÖ.

If the current mayor of Klagenfurt, Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz (SPÖ), ends up below 50% in the direct vote (which is likely), it will be interesting to see who enters the runoff with her. ÖVP ? FPÖ ? TK ? or even the Greens (but I guess they are too weak).