🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

There's a regular municipal election coming up on Jan. 24th in St. Pölten (capital of Lower Austria).



The capital historically votes on a different date than the other 570 or so towns in the state.

The last election in 2016 (before Kurz), had the following results:

59% SPÖ (+2)
20% ÖVP (-5)
15% FPÖ (+4)
  3% Greens (-2)
  2% NEOS (+2)
  1% Others (-1)

This time, SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS and KPÖ will run.

47.000 people are eligible to vote. Turnout was 64% in 2016.

This time, I would assume that the SPÖ loses 2-6%, the ÖVP gains the same amount, the FPÖ drops well below 10% and Greens and NEOS gain ground moderately.

Historical results

Polls are now closing and votes being counted.

This should take ca. 2-3 hours.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

There's a regular municipal election coming up on Jan. 24th in St. Pölten (capital of Lower Austria).

The capital historically votes on a different date than the other 570 or so towns in the state.

The last election in 2016 (before Kurz), had the following results:

59% SPÖ (+2)
20% ÖVP (-5)
15% FPÖ (+4)
  3% Greens (-2)
  2% NEOS (+2)
  1% Others (-1)

This time, SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS and KPÖ will run.

47.000 people are eligible to vote. Turnout was 64% in 2016.

This time, I would assume that the SPÖ loses 2-6%, the ÖVP gains the same amount, the FPÖ drops well below 10% and Greens and NEOS gain ground moderately.

Historical results

[image]

Polls are now closing and votes being counted.

This should take ca. 2-3 hours.

How did the KPÖ make the ballot again after missing the previous three municipal elections in St. Pölten (and that after a long progressive decline in vote share in the elections before), according to the German Wikipedia page you linked to?

[Tender Branson]

There's a regular municipal election coming up on Jan. 24th in St. Pölten (capital of Lower Austria).

The capital historically votes on a different date than the other 570 or so towns in the state.

The last election in 2016 (before Kurz), had the following results:

59% SPÖ (+2)
20% ÖVP (-5)
15% FPÖ (+4)
  3% Greens (-2)
  2% NEOS (+2)
  1% Others (-1)

This time, SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS and KPÖ will run.

47.000 people are eligible to vote. Turnout was 64% in 2016.

This time, I would assume that the SPÖ loses 2-6%, the ÖVP gains the same amount, the FPÖ drops well below 10% and Greens and NEOS gain ground moderately.

Historical results

[image]

Polls are now closing and votes being counted.

This should take ca. 2-3 hours.

How did the KPÖ make the ballot again after missing the previous three municipal elections in St. Pölten (and that after a long progressive decline in vote share in the elections before), according to the German Wikipedia page you linked to?

By collecting 84 signatures from voters to appear on the ballot.

Not sure why they didn’t run in the past 20 years, maybe because of financial reasons or something.

[Tender Branson]

St. Pölten result:

Bürgermeister Matthias Stadler – SPÖ (Kurzbezeichnung - SPÖ)
14.455 Stimmen, das sind 56,04%. Veränderung gegenüber der Gemeinderatswahl 2016: -2,96%, 25 Mandate (-1)

Volkspartei St. Pölten – Liste Matthias Adl (Kurzbezeichnung - ÖVP)
5.863 Stimmen, das sind 22,73%. Veränderung gegenüber der Gemeinderatswahl 2016: +2,46%, 10 Mandate (+1)

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (Kurzbezeichnung - FPÖ)
2.298 Stimmen, das sind 8,91%. Veränderung gegenüber der Gemeinderatswahl 2016: -5,79%, 3 Mandate (-3)

Die Grünen St. Pölten – (Kurzbezeichnung - Grüne)
2.067 Stimmen, das sind 8,01%. Veränderung gegenüber der Gemeinderatswahl 2016: +5,27%, 3 Mandate (+2)

NEOS Das Neue Österreich (Kurzbezeichnung - NEOS)
824 Stimmen, das sind 3,19%. Veränderung gegenüber der Gemeinderatswahl 2016: +1,62%, 1 Mandat (+1)

KPÖ plus (Kurzbezeichnung – KPÖ)
288 Stimmen, das sind 1,12%.

Stadträte: SPÖ: 8, ÖVP: 3, FPÖ: 1 (-1), Grüne: 1 (+1)

Turnout:

55.96% (- 7.66%)

https://www.st-poelten.at/news/16056-st-poelten-hat-gewaehlt

[Tender Branson]

The results were about what I expected ...

Despite 56% for the SPÖ, this is actually their worst result since 1972.

Best result for the Greens ever.

Best result for the KPÖ since 1986.

[Tender Branson]

On 28 February, the Carinthia municipal elections take place.

Those will be a lot more interesting, because it’s a statewide election and will serve as a better indicator for any federal trend (if there even is one).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The results were about what I expected ...

Despite 56% for the SPÖ, this is actually their worst result since 1972.

Best result for the Greens ever.

Best result for the KPÖ since 1986.

That's surprising, although given that it's a very meager 1.12% of the vote, it tells you more about the dire straits in which the party has been for many, many years than anything.

[parochial boy]

The results were about what I expected ...

Despite 56% for the SPÖ, this is actually their worst result since 1972.

Best result for the Greens ever.

Best result for the KPÖ since 1986.

That's surprising, although given that it's a very meager 1.12% of the vote, it tells you more about the dire straits in which the party has been for many, many years than anything.

Not sure I'd even call it dire straights in this day and age to be honest. They're a regional party who are relevant in Graz, and a footnote everywhere else

[Tender Branson]

The results were about what I expected ...

Despite 56% for the SPÖ, this is actually their worst result since 1972.

Best result for the Greens ever.

Best result for the KPÖ since 1986.

That's surprising, although given that it's a very meager 1.12% of the vote, it tells you more about the dire straits in which the party has been for many, many years than anything.

The Communists don’t serve any purpose outside Graz and Styria.

There’s also no place or appeal for them really.

The Graz and Styria phenomenon is not based on Communist ideology, but on good work by those leading the party there and as a protest against the SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

New „Triple M“ / W24 poll for Vienna:

44% SPÖ (+2)
18% ÖVP (-2)
12% Greens (-3)
12% FPÖ (+5)
  9% NEOS (+2)
  5% Others (-4)

The SPÖ-NEOS government is gaining ground since the October election.

The FPÖ too (ex-Strache Party voters), while the ÖVP & Greens are down.

https://www.ots.at/a/PDF_20210124_OTS0020_0

[Tender Branson]

Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ-leader) is suddenly gaining in popularity ...

After being among the worst-rated politicians in the country for years, with favourables similar to Hillary Clinton and only topped by FPÖs Hofer and Kickl.



https://www.heute.at/s/kurz-anschober-ueberraschende-wende-in-barometer-100124308

We’ll need to wait & see if this will last, but it seems her competency as a doctor for infectious diseases is now paying off somehow and the party (riddled by intrigues before) seems to have accustomed to her.

IMO, she’s very underrated and would make a great Chancellor.

[Tender Branson]

Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.

[Flyersfan232]

Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.

Would the ovp and fpo be willing to bury the hatchet if things go south with the greens? At the very least the fpo backing the government from outside?

[Tender Branson]

Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.

Would the ovp and fpo be willing to bury the hatchet if things go south with the greens? At the very least the fpo backing the government from outside?

Nobody really wants to work with the federal ÖVP these days.

Not the Greens, not the FPÖ, not the SPÖ.

Even many Greens in the govt right now with them are quietly saying that the power-hungry ÖVP is a ruthless, backstabbing entity that will do everything to destroy their smaller coalition partners with shady methods.

First, the ÖVP planted moles inside the SPÖ, which destroyed the SPÖ from the inside and as a result blew up the SPÖVP coalition.

Then, they organized (or at least aided the release and circulation of) the Ibiza-video that blew up their coalition with the FPÖ.

Now, they are using deportations of well-integrated children and other smear tactics to decimate their current coalition partner - the Greens.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.

Would the ovp and fpo be willing to bury the hatchet if things go south with the greens? At the very least the fpo backing the government from outside?

Nobody really wants to work with the federal ÖVP these days.

Not the Greens, not the FPÖ, not the SPÖ.

Even many Greens in the govt right now with them are quietly saying that the power-hungry ÖVP is a ruthless, backstabbing entity that will do everything to destroy their smaller coalition partners with shady methods.

First, the ÖVP planted moles inside the SPÖ, which destroyed the SPÖ from the inside and as a result blew up the SPÖVP coalition.

Then, they organized (or at least aided the release and circulation of) the Ibiza-video that blew up their coalition with the FPÖ.

Now, they are using deportations of well-integrated children and other smear tactics to decimate their current coalition partner - the Greens.

If GreenOVP ends, could we see some kind of Frankenstein coalition that leaves out the OVP?

[Tender Branson]

Cold War between coalition partners ÖVP and Greens over the deportation of 3 young Armenian and Georgian students (already born in Austria) and their families:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123699588/nach-der-schuelerinnen-abschiebung-kracht-es-im-koalitionsgebaelk

The ÖVP-led Interior Ministry deportation officers rounded up the families up for deportation last night, put them in planes and deported them.

All their asylum requests since 2005 or so have been denied several times by Austrian courts, including the high court.

Not only are the Greens accusing the ÖVP of being heartless and ruthless, President VdB is also attacking the ÖVP. Just like the SPÖ and NEOS.

I don't really find that surprising (as a Green voter myself): it was always pretty clear that eventually a controversial deportation would come up and risk the coalition. This is an area where many Greens don't really agree with the rule of law.

Would the ovp and fpo be willing to bury the hatchet if things go south with the greens? At the very least the fpo backing the government from outside?

Nobody really wants to work with the federal ÖVP these days.

Not the Greens, not the FPÖ, not the SPÖ.

Even many Greens in the govt right now with them are quietly saying that the power-hungry ÖVP is a ruthless, backstabbing entity that will do everything to destroy their smaller coalition partners with shady methods.

First, the ÖVP planted moles inside the SPÖ, which destroyed the SPÖ from the inside and as a result blew up the SPÖVP coalition.

Then, they organized (or at least aided the release and circulation of) the Ibiza-video that blew up their coalition with the FPÖ.

Now, they are using deportations of well-integrated children and other smear tactics to decimate their current coalition partner - the Greens.

If GreenOVP ends, could we see some kind of Frankenstein coalition that leaves out the OVP?

No.

... even though that actually happened for a brief period after ÖVP-FPÖ fell apart, with Brigitte Bierlein as Chancellor.

This 3/4 of a year was good times.

Quiet times, but it was some sort of well-functioning, multi-partisan, Swiss-style government and parliament.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

so I guess the OVP can get its cake and eat it too then. No possible governmental option leaves them out.

[Tender Branson]

so I guess the OVP can get its cake and eat it too then. No possible governmental option leaves them out.

That basically sums everything up, yes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

so I guess the OVP can get its cake and eat it too then. No possible governmental option leaves them out.

That basically sums everything up, yes.

inb4 there is an SPOVP government next time, with the SPO reluctantly agreeing to be the OVP's latest punching bag.

[Tender Branson]

derstandard.at speculates that the ÖVP-Green coalition could blow up tomorrow:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000123848623/koalition-auf-der-kippe

The FPÖ has called a special parliamentary session for tomorrow (Corona-related), but the SPÖ and NEOS will introduce motions which call for "humane and reformed asylum/deportation laws" which would prohibit the deportation - like the one recently - of children who were already born in Austria.

In fact, the SPÖ will introduce the same text as they did in the Vienna state parliament, which the Greens there supported.

It will put the Greens in a delicate situation: with the ÖVP totally opposed to any reforms in the immigration/asylum/deportation laws, the Greens will have to show their true colors. Either vote with the ÖVP out of coalition respect and alienate more and more of their voters, or back the opposition proposal. Which would be a de-facto end of the coalition.

[Omega21]

They should just allow the kids born here to stay and that's it. Should also have other requirements, tied to German, school, etc.

Most of our issues are a result of single male newcomers, not kids.

I get that it would basically be "pardoning" the law-breaking parents, but still not an insane issue.

[Tender Branson]

They should just allow the kids born here to stay and that's it. Should also have other requirements, tied to German, school, etc.

Most of our issues are a result of single male newcomers, not kids.

I get that it would basically be "pardoning" the law-breaking parents, but still not an insane issue.

For this, the law would have to be changed - which the ÖVP categorically opposes because it would set a precedent and a signal to people abroad that Austria weakens its tough asylum laws.

Also, it's not practical in real life: If you have asylum seekers here who give birth to a child and somehow avoid deportation for years, this child grows up here while the parents are here illegally (like in this case at hand). The parents are deported, while the kids remain here because they were born here ? That's not going to work. You have to deport both.

Anway, the Greens folded today and voted with the ÖVP and against the opposition, after the ÖVP told them that they'd risk breaking up the coalition in the midst of a health crisis:

Green parliamentary club boss Sigrid Maurer announced that they would not agree to the proposals of the SPÖ and NEOS. However, the Greens are “determined” to better protect the rights of children in Austria. Maurer interpreted the requests to bring the girls recently deported to Georgia and Armenia back to Austria as an “attempt by the SPÖ to play cheap party politics. This is a transparent maneuver, especially since the SPÖ itself decided to tighten numerous asylum laws during its reign.”

Green leader Werner Kogler has meanwhile announced the establishment of a commission to deal with the importance of children's rights and the welfare of children in decisions on asylum and residence rights. Former President of the Supreme Court and ex-NEOS MP Irmgard Griss will head the Child Welfare Commission. Together with experts, she will develop recommendations on how the best interests of the child and children's rights can be given greater consideration. A first report should be available and published in the middle of the year.

[rob in cal]

  So did the Greens end up voting with the FPO as well as the OVP on this issue then? That makes for an interesting line up.

[Tender Branson]

 So did the Greens end up voting with the FPO as well as the OVP on this issue then? That makes for an interesting line up.

Well, yes.

The Greens knew from the start what they are in for, when entering a coalition with the ÖVP ...

They are their b*tch, they need to bend over and get screwed on migration issues.

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll:

39% ÖVP
24% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
10% NEOS
  9% Greens
  3% Others

That’s the highest number for the SPÖ in a while and the lowest for the Greens.

But the Ö24 polls are not really accurate historically.

Also, 58% of Austrians polled support the deportation of the 3 school kids recently and their parents, 42% are opposed.

76% of Austrians polled reject changes to the strict asylum laws, only 24% want reforms to make them less strict.

https://www.diepresse.com/5932656/spo-und-fpo-wollen-nehammer-aus-dem-amt-schicken