🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

Even though the 2022 Presidential election is far away, there's a first ATV poll:

50% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greendependent, incumbent)
17% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
  2% Other candidates
  2% Would vote invalid
  6% Wouldn't vote
23% Undecided

https://www.atv.at/atv-aktuell-die-woche/folge-97/d3217320/

[Tender Branson]

Year-end "Market" poll for the "Standard" newspaper (Dec. 17-21, n=809):

39% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
14% Greens
13% FPÖ
  9% NEOS

Market also asked voters if they perceive each party to be "better off" or "worse off" in their own opinion, compared to the 2019 election:

Only NEOS is seen better off in the eyes of those polled since election day 2019, by a 42-38 margin.

The ÖVP situation is odd: the party gained from 37.5% in the election to 39% now in the poll, but by a 31-53 margin, voters see the party worse off since election day ... One explanation could be the "Kurz" Chancellor factor: While voters increasingly see the party in a negative light, Kurz bails the party out because of his popularity with rural, older voters.

The FPÖ is even 10-76 in the dumpster.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000122792735/corona-krise-beschert-politik-schlechte-noten

[Tender Branson]

Year-end Tyrol poll by "GMK" for the weekly "Bezirksblätter" newspaper:

52% ÖVP (+7.7% compared to the 2018 election)
15% Greens (+4.3%)
10% FPÖ (-5.5%)
  9% SPÖ (-8.3%)
  8% NEOS (+2.8%)
  4% Fritz (-1.5%)
  2% Others (+0.5%)

The current state government is ÖVP-Greens, just like in Austria as well.

Zur Umfrage

Auftraggeber: Bezirksblätter Tirol GmbH
Ausführende Gesellschaft: GMK Research & Consulting
Abfragezeitraum: 11.12. bis 16.12.2020
Sample und Instrument: 400 Telefoninterviews
Maximale Schwankungsbreite: Gesamtergebnis ±5 Prozent

https://www.meinbezirk.at/tirol/c-politik/bezirkskblaetter-umfrage-absolute-fuer-platter-oevp_a4413174

[CumbrianLefty]

Even though the 2022 Presidential election is far away, there's a first ATV poll:

50% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greendependent, incumbent)
17% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

That's a bit different from the last election they contested.

[Tender Branson]

3rd Tyrol poll in a row, for the „TT“ newspaper:



https://www.tt.com/artikel/17686532/tt-umfrage-platters-oevp-trotzt-gegenwind-vormacht-mit-abschlaegen

[CumbrianLefty]

That's a bit better for the SPO than the previous one?

[Tender Branson]

That's a bit better for the SPO than the previous one?

Better but still abysmal.

The ÖVP is now even attracting former SPÖ voters in rural areas, or new voters who would have voted SPÖ a few decades ago.

But those people now increasingly have white collar jobs instead of blue collar jobs and that’s why the SPÖ is declining everywhere in rural areas.

And the people with more precarious jobs are not voting SPÖ either any longer, but FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

In other news, the Team Strache has fallen apart:

https://www.krone.at/2296442

The "Profil" magazine has a political obituary calling Strache a "tragic figure":

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/heinz-christian-strache-charakter-und-lebensweg-einer-tragischen-figur/401140917

That of course means the FPÖ was right all along during the Vienna campaign when they said they will always be "the original" and "outlive" Strache ... (of course they got decimated as well).

[Tender Branson]

There's a regular municipal election coming up on Jan. 24th in St. Pölten (capital of Lower Austria).



The capital historically votes on a different date than the other 570 or so towns in the state.

The last election in 2016 (before Kurz), had the following results:

59% SPÖ (+2)
20% ÖVP (-5)
15% FPÖ (+4)
  3% Greens (-2)
  2% NEOS (+2)
  1% Others (-1)

This time, SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS and KPÖ will run.

47.000 people are eligible to vote. Turnout was 64% in 2016.

This time, I would assume that the SPÖ loses 2-6%, the ÖVP gains the same amount, the FPÖ drops well below 10% and Greens and NEOS gain ground moderately.

Historical results

[CumbrianLefty]

That's a bit better for the SPO than the previous one?

Better but still abysmal.

The ÖVP is now even attracting former SPÖ voters in rural areas, or new voters who would have voted SPÖ a few decades ago.

But those people now increasingly have white collar jobs instead of blue collar jobs and that’s why the SPÖ is declining everywhere in rural areas.

And the people with more precarious jobs are not voting SPÖ either any longer, but FPÖ.

Though tbf isn't Tyrol a long term OVP stronghold anyway?

[Tender Branson]

Vienna Green Party leader Birgit Hebein has - not unsurprisingly - announced her retirement as party leader, effective this coming January.



She lost backing within the party after failing to enter a coalition again with the SPÖ after the Vienna election in October (she was also controversial before that already as well).

The most likely successors of Hebein will be Judith Pühringer and Peter Kraus, or both -> as a Doppelspitze.

     

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000122848645/birgitt-hebein-tritt-im-jaenner-als-vorsitzende-der-wiener-gruenen

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Given Kurz is young, has he given how long he wants to stay in post? Is he making moves that he wants to stay literally until he has to be dragged out, or does he want to step up e.g. at the EU level?

[Tender Branson]

Given Kurz is young, has he given how long he wants to stay in post? Is he making moves that he wants to stay literally until he has to be dragged out, or does he want to step up e.g. at the EU level?

He has not really said much about it.

Time will tell.

But he's no Trump, who needs to be dragged out of office ...

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland Governor Hans-Peter Doskozil (SPÖ) once again needs a complicated surgery in his throat in Leipzig, Germany and will be out of work for a few months. Despite rumours from political enemies, „Dosko“ went on Facebook and said it was not Laryngeal cancer but something complicated involving his vocal cords, which left him almost speechless during the last few years. He still won the last state election with an absolute majority for the SPÖ and an increase of 8%.



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/burgenlands-landeshauptmann-doskozil-muss-erneut-operiert-werden/401146785

This means that Astrid Eisenkopf, also SPÖ, (in English: Astrid Ironhead) will become acting Governor of Burgenland. Eisenkopf is 36 and lost her husband to cancer 3 years ago.



https://www.news.at/a/interview-astrid-eisenkopf-frau-hans-peter-doskozil-11342708

[Tender Branson]

Christine Aschbacher (37, ÖVP) - Austrian Minister for Labour/Families/Youth - is under heavy pressure to resign after a „plagiarism hunter“ found out that about 20% of her doctorate work is plagiarized.



SPÖ, FPÖ & NEOS want her to resign, ÖVP & Greens are silent so far.

https://orf.at/stories/3196661

[Tender Branson]

Christine Aschbacher (37, ÖVP) - Austrian Minister for Labour/Families/Youth - is under heavy pressure to resign after a „plagiarism hunter“ found out that about 20% of her doctorate work is plagiarized.



SPÖ, FPÖ & NEOS want her to resign, ÖVP & Greens are silent so far.

https://orf.at/stories/3196661

Aaaand ... she has stepped down:

https://orf.at/stories/3196689

[Tender Branson]

Austrian minister resigns amid thesis plagiarism scandal

Austrian minister Christine Aschbacher resigned from her cabinet post in charge of labour, families and youth on Saturday following allegations that some of her university work was plagiarised.

A Conservative from chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s ÖVP party, Aschbacher said she had stepped down to “protect my family”, complaining of “hostility, political agitation and attacks … with unbearable force”.

Aschbacher’s 2006 masters thesis displayed “plagiarism, incorrect quotations and lack of knowledge of the German language”, alleged blogger Stefan Weber, who specialises in sniffing out academic fraud.

At the time, she graduated with high marks from the University of Applied Sciences in Wiener Neustadt, south of the capital Vienna.

Weber has levelled the same allegations at a thesis she submitted in May last year – in the depths of the first wave of coronavirus – to the Technical University of Bratislava in neighbouring Slovakia.

He claimed the work contained “never-before-seen depths of gobbledegook, nonsense and plagiarism” and that more than one-fifth of the text had been lifted from other sources without citations, in particular an article from Forbes magazine.

Under attack by the opposition, Aschbacher “rejected” what she called Weber’s “insinuations”.

Kurz wrote on Twitter that he “respected” her decision to resign, after the scandal piled pressure on a government facing criticism for its management of the second wave of Covid-19, widely seen as chaotic. The chancellor added that he would name a successor on Monday.

Academic plagiarism is a regular charge levelled at politicians in the German-speaking world, where leaders often brandish postgraduate qualifications.

In Germany, two Conservatives, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and Annett Schavan, stepped down from the defence and education ministries in 2011 and 2013 over similar scandals, while the current centre-left families minister, Franziska Giffey, has been dogged by plagiarism allegations for years.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/austrian-minister-resigns-amid-plagiarism-scandal

[Tender Branson]

Martin Kocher (Univ.-Prof. Mag. Dr.), head of the economic think tank IHS, will succeed Aschbacher as Labour Minister.



Kocher is a well-known expert on labour market and economic issues, non-partisan and accepted by all parties. Solid choice.

The family and youth portfolios will be transferred to Integration and Women Minister Susanne Raab.

He already has an appointment with President Van der Bellen today for a first personal meeting and will already be sworn in tomorrow.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Kocher

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_Advanced_Studies_(Vienna)

[CumbrianLefty]

Christine Aschbacher (37, ÖVP) - Austrian Minister for Labour/Families/Youth - is under heavy pressure to resign after a „plagiarism hunter“ found out that about 20% of her doctorate work is plagiarized.



SPÖ, FPÖ & NEOS want her to resign, ÖVP & Greens are silent so far.

https://orf.at/stories/3196661

I suppose the cynical response here might be "only 20%?"

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is heading for a huge victory in St. Pölten (Public Opinion Strategies poll for the NÖN newspaper):



https://www.noen.at/st-poelten/exklusiv-umfrage-noen-umfrage-stadler-vor-klarem-sieg-in-st-poelten-st-poelten-niederoesterreich-redaktionsfeed-gemeinderatswahl-2021-matthias-stadler-redaktion-242192586

[Tender Branson]

Kathrin Glock, owner of the Austrian firearms producer, has been questioned today at the Ibiza investigation committee of the Austrian parliament in Glock's involvement in the scandal.



First, Kathrin Glock didn't want to appear in front of the investigation committee, but then parliament forced her to appear.



She didn't really have any meaningful to say and managed to wind herself out of the tricky questions, by saying "I won't answer this and I won't answer that and the state prosecution has found no links between Glock and financing the far-right FPÖ."

Still, everyone knows that the Glocks are affiliated with the FPÖ and there might have been money flows in return for posts: Transport Minister Norbert Hofer made Kathrin Glock a board member of Austrocontrol, the aviation regulation body, during his term.

https://orf.at/stories/3197039

[Tender Branson]

Kathrin Glock has been removed from the board of Austrocontrol today by the Green Transport Minister Leonore Gewessler, because of "misdemeanor and obstruction against parliament and the investigation committee".

Glock said she quit herself 5 minutes before she would have been ousted ...

https://kurier.at/wirtschaft/gewessler-beruft-kathrin-glock-als-austro-control-aufsichtsraetin-ab/401154465

Glock was replaced by an aide of Gewessler, Judith Engel.

[Tender Branson]

APA/OGM „Trust Index“ of major Austrian politicians (conducted the last few days):

Balance of „I have trust in this politician“ minus „I have no trust in this politician“.

Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) has gone from about balanced to -5 in 2016 during his Presidential run to about -50 now.

[Tender Branson]

New monthly "Profil" magazine poll:

37% ÖVP (-3)
22% SPÖ (+2)
16% FPÖ (+1)
14% Greens (+1)
10% NEOS (n.c.)
  1% Others (-1)

Rest auf 100%: Andere/k. A., Methode: Online-Befragung , Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren, Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: 3,5 Prozentpunkte, Sample: n = 800 Befragte, Feldarbeit: 11. bis 14. Jänner 2021

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20210116_OTS0011/profil-sonntagsfrage-oevp-verliert-spoe-gruene-und-fpoe-legen-zu

[Tender Branson]

Sankt Pölten municipal election tomorrow:

More than 1/3rd of all eligible voters have already voted early in containers in front of city hall, or by post.

If turnout is around 60% tomorrow, that would be more than every second voter.

Polls close at 5pm tomorrow and a final result is expected about 3 hours later.