🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

SORA also has individual district projections incl. estimates for absentee ballots.

If everything is fully counted, the SPÖ is expected to win 21 of the 23 districts easily.

There are 2 close races, where the SPÖ is projected to win one - while the ÖVP is expected to win the 1st District of Vienna, the City of Vienna (like the City of London).

[Tender Branson]

Preferred coalition of SPÖ voters:

54% SPÖ-Greens
12% SPÖ-ÖVP
11% SPÖ alone
10% SPÖ-NEOS
  3% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS
  3% SPÖ-FPÖ
  4% Other

Preferred coalition of Green voters:

83% SPÖ-Greens
  4% Greens/NEOS (lol)
  3% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS
  3% Greens-ÖVP
11% Other

[PSOL]

This is a surprising victory for LINKS, exactly what did they do to get these results?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Can we get a translation of that Beer party ad? I feel like it’d be funnier if I knew what they were saying...

[parochial boy]

Can we get a translation of that Beer party ad? I feel like it’d be funnier if I knew what they were saying...

Seeing as no-one else wants to, German as a third language speaker me shall do the honours

Girls -  talking about how some presumably hispter places in Vienna is too small, so the beer fountain might be more useful
nerdy guy - "oh my God! He's taken the left wing votes"
Men - something about how presumably the leader of the Beer Party is right about "foreign" fruit in our good old Austrian beer (I think this is a joke about pineapple IPA's and that sort of thing)
nerdy guy - "oh my God, he's taken the right wing votes! Who is this guy?"
sunglasses guy - "It's the leader of the Beer party"
nerdy guy tweets that the Beer Party guy is destroying democracy
Beer party guy - "dear voters, don't let yourselves be influenced, your votes don't belong to any party, they can't be stolen, they belong to you"

[Tender Branson]

This is a surprising victory for LINKS, exactly what did they do to get these results?

Posters, social media and people thinking "The SPÖ will win big anyway, so let's waste our votes on an even lefter party."

[Tender Branson]

With 100% of election-day votes counted, let's see what the 382.000 absentee ballots will bring today and how fast they get counted.

There's still a MoE of +/- 1.4% for the parties, because nobody really knows how twice the number of such ballots "behave" relative to the precinct votes.

There are historical patterns, but once you have twice the amount as usual, those patterns might change quite a bit, especially with new parties and such dramatic changes as we saw yesterday.

Anyway, turnout could still end up anywhere between 61-66%, depending on the return and acceptance rate.

Still a big drop from the 75% in 2015, with mostly FPÖ-voters staying home.

Here is a chart of voter streams from 2015 to 2020:

https://orf.at/wahl/wien20/migrations/grw15-migrations

[Tender Branson]

According to the voter streams, 40% of 2015 FPÖ-voters (31%) went into the non-voter category yesterday.

That's worth 12% of turnout-drop ...

[Tender Branson]

H.C. Strache has accepted the "Election Clown"-award from the Kronen Zeitung newspaper yesterday evening:



The Kronen Zeitung awarded it "to the clown with the biggest bulls*it campaign in the Vienna election."

https://www.krone.at/2250657

[Tender Branson]

Facebook letter from Herbert Kickl (FPÖ):

Dear friends,

The voters are always right. If you win, that's how it is. And even if you lose, the sentence is still valid.

The election result in Vienna is more than bitter. This enormous loss of trust hurts immensely. The work of a great many over a long period of time has been ruined. Any attempt to gloss it over is doomed to failure.

And yet: it must go on. And it will go on. Because the many problems that also need to be solved in Vienna did not resolve with yesterday. Because the passionate joy of the winners will soon develop into the familiar inertia of the system.

We were not defeated by other parties this time. The FPÖ itself did this business for our opponents. That is why the success of the future can only come from ourselves.

The keys are work, down-to-earth, honesty and credibility. In addition, there is courage, perseverance and a heart for our people. We have to be there for the Austrians, for their interests, worries and needs. That is our duty as a social home party.

All talk and all demands don't count if you don't follow your principles yourself. As great and strong as the force is if it succeeds, the disappointment and anger are, conversely, great when this simple principle is betrayed.

Any program, however good, is bloodless without the real inner drive. Justice lives only through the righteous. Bravery only through the brave. Modesty only through the humble.

This is how I see our mission. This is how I see my mission. And this is the only way we will regain our strength in Vienna to be strong for all those who are quickly abandoned by yesterday's winners.

Thanks to everyone who has remained loyal to us.

Thank you to everyone who has placed their personal trust in us for the first time.

And thank you also to the many disappointed people for not closing the door to us forever yesterday.

Your

Herbert Kickl

[Tender Branson]

A speaker of the Vienna election commission just told the "Standard" newspaper that "they have no hurry and the postal vote count will end no sooner than tomorrow evening or until Wednesday at noon."

[Tender Branson]

Strache's political career might not be completely over:

Aside from the state election/city council (where he failed to enter, unless the absentee votes deliver a miracle for him), there were also 23 individual district council elections yesterday in each of Vienna's districts.

SORA says that Strache's party will likely be represented in 16 of these 23 district councils (Beer Party, Left, SÖZ will also be represented in some of the 23).

District councillors earn only 400€ a month, so it is questionable if Strache will take this job.

On the other hand, each district councillor also gets free public transport tickets by the City of Vienna ...

[CumbrianLefty]

According to the voter streams, 40% of 2015 FPÖ-voters (31%) went into the non-voter category yesterday.

That's worth 12% of turnout-drop ...

To state the obvious, that's an awful lot of votes.

[Tender Branson]

Absentee ballots in 13/23 Vienna districts have been counted by now and released.

Looks like the count could be finished tonight, or early tomorrow (as planned).

[Tender Branson]

Unlike the district council elections, which are 23 individual elections, the results for the Vienna city council election will only be released as a whole when all absentee votes are fully counted.

The "Standard" is reporting that apparently the ÖVP and Greens are doing much better in the vast amount of absentee ballots, than projected by "exit pollster" SORA in their Sunday projection that included estimates for these ballots.

And the FPÖ and Strache (and to a small extent the SPÖ) much worse.

The SPÖ could end with 41% overall (SORA's projection incl. absentees was SPÖ 42%).

ÖVP: probably around 21% (!), up from the 19% projected by SORA.

Greens: 15% instead of 14%

FPÖ: 7%, instead of 8%.

NEOS: unchanged at ca. 7.5 to 8%

Strache: 3% (instead of 4%)

---

FPÖ+Strache combined at just 10%

[Tender Branson]

Only 1 of the 23 districts in Vienna is still counting absentee ballots (Donaustadt).

Based on the results so far, there's a 90% return/acceptance rate for these absentee ballots.

That would push turnout up to 66% Vienna-wide, about 3% higher than the SORA estimate.

Turnout would then be "only" 9% lower compared to 2015, not 12% lower.

[Tender Branson]

All votes for the 23 Vienna district council elections are now counted.

That means the vote count for the state election could still come tonight, or early tomorrow.

[mileslunn]

I know they only got 2%, but what is the Beer party about?  Is it some joke party or is there something serious about it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reckon a cake party would have polled better in Vienna. Not one of the great brewing cities, but there are no greater baking ones.

[Tender Branson]

I know they only got 2%, but what is the Beer party about?  Is it some joke party or is there something serious about it?

The Beer Party is a satirical side project of the rock band „Turbobier“, led by „Dr.“ Marco Pogo (his real name is Dominik Wlazny).

They had like zero campaign money and were only dependent on their band supporters and fans to spread their message + social media.

Considering this, getting 2% without any party structures was a huge achievement.

[Tender Branson]

During the night, all 382.000 absentee ballots were fully counted and a final result for the state election was released:

https://orf.at/wahl/wien20/ergebnisse

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/GR201/index.html

The FPÖ dropped to 7.1% and Strache to 3.3% - they destroyed themselves in the campaign.

All other parties ended up where the pollsters had them before the election, except the small parties Beer, Left and SÖZ - who outperformed polls - and benefitted from the collapse of the FPÖ & Strache and attracted protest voters.

Final turnout: 65.3% (not as bad as first projected)

The SPÖ will now talk with the Greens and NEOS about a coalition.

[Tender Branson]

The Wikipedia page has been updated with the (preliminary*) final result:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Viennese_state_election

* preliminary, because they are only certified at next week’s Vienna election commission meeting

The Wiki page also continues a good analysis.

[Tender Branson]

With the final Vienna result out, there's also some changes in the future Vienna city government:

NEOS will, for the first time, get a government post in the city senate.

Vienna has a city senate (= government) which consists of governing members and members without portfolio. The latter posts are basically useless, these members have no governing power, but get paid a lot. There have been calls to abolish it, but for this the Austrian Constitution needs to be changed as well. It's a clear symbol of Austrian wasteful spending due to Proporz from the old days of SPÖVP dominance.

NEOS (who have always called to abolish these posts without portfolio), have said they will not accept to take such a seat.

NEOS will only accept a governing seat with portfolio, in case of an SPÖ-NEOS government.

There will also be changes to the Austrian Bundesrat, the 2nd chamber of parliament, representing the 9 states.

Vienna has 11 seats in the 61 seat chamber.

After the election, it's:

5 SPÖ (-1)
2 ÖVP (+2)
2 Greens (+1)
1 NEOS (+1)
1 FPÖ (-3)

For the first time in its history, NEOS will get a seat in the Austrian Bundesrat.

The new composition of the Bundesrat will be:

25 ÖVP (+2)
19 SPÖ (-1)
11 FPÖ (-3)
  5 Greens (+1)
  1 NEOS (+1)

The Austrian ÖVP-Green government will have 30/61 seats.

The opposition will have 31/61 seats.

But with NEOS in for the first time, it's 30-30 with NEOS the possible kingmaker.

On the other hand, the Bundesrat chamber can only delay regular laws passed by the Nationalrat, not veto them with a simple majority. For this, it needs a 2/3-majority vote. If the Bundesrat delays a regular new law passed by the Nationalrat, the Nationalrat breaks the delay with a new vote of persistance ... and it becomes law (after the Austrian President signs it).

[Tender Branson]

A social-liberal SPÖ-NEOS coalition in Vienna to succeed Red-Green is not as unlikely as it sounds.

The SPÖ would get rid of a sometimes uncomfortable partner with the Greens, who often push very bobo-minded, hard-left, environmentalist policies that make the older workingclass SPÖ-base eyeroll.

NEOS would also be much smaller coalition partner, with fewer demands.

The SPÖ could give them the education portfolio, but could reclaim the important traffic portfolio for themselves again, after the Greens had it for years (with polarizing effects for the city).

[CumbrianLefty]

So the SPO slightly improved on their last Vienna result but drop a seat - how does that work?