🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
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Author Topic: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021  (Read 74222 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #450 on: October 11, 2020, 09:42:08 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 08:40:25 AM
A British woman living in Vienna for more than 30 years went to a polling station to vote in the district council election, as usual.

She was told she cannot vote any more, because Brexit.



Well that sucks a bit.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #451 on: October 11, 2020, 09:59:47 AM »
Polls are closing in Vienna.
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Mike88
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« Reply #452 on: October 11, 2020, 10:03:02 AM »
No surprises in the exit polls.
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Keep Calm and ...
OldEurope
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« Reply #453 on: October 11, 2020, 10:06:46 AM »
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #454 on: October 11, 2020, 10:07:11 AM »
1st trend polls (by 3 different pollsters):

SPÖ: ca. 41-42% (+2%)
ÖVP: ca. 17-18% (+8%)
Greens: ca. 14-15% (+3%)
FPÖ: ca. 10% (-21%)
NEOS: ca. 8% (+2%)
Strache: ca. 4-5% (+5%)
Others: ca. 3-4%

Those are mostly based on phone/online interviews, not counted votes yet.

MoE = +/- 2.5% (!)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #455 on: October 11, 2020, 10:08:54 AM »
Research Affairs / Ö24 projects the Beer Party at 2.5% !
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Mike88
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« Reply #456 on: October 11, 2020, 10:09:43 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:07:11 AM
1st trend polls (by 3 different pollsters):

SPÖ: ca. 41-42% (+2%)
ÖVP: ca. 17-18% (+8%)
Greens: ca. 14-15% (+3%)
FPÖ: ca. 10% (-21%)
NEOS: ca. 8% (+2%)
Strache: ca. 4-5% (+5%)
Others: ca. 3-4%

Those are mostly based on phone/online interviews, not counted votes yet.

MoE = +/- 2.5% (!)

Does the 41-42% give the SPÖ an absloute majority or do they still need the support of the Greens?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #457 on: October 11, 2020, 10:11:37 AM »
Quote from: Mike88 on October 11, 2020, 10:09:43 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:07:11 AM
1st trend polls (by 3 different pollsters):

SPÖ: ca. 41-42% (+2%)
ÖVP: ca. 17-18% (+8%)
Greens: ca. 14-15% (+3%)
FPÖ: ca. 10% (-21%)
NEOS: ca. 8% (+2%)
Strache: ca. 4-5% (+5%)
Others: ca. 3-4%

Those are mostly based on phone/online interviews, not counted votes yet.

MoE = +/- 2.5% (!)

Does the 41-42% give the SPÖ an absloute majority or do they still need the support of the Greens?

Even with Strache out, they are nowhere near an absolute majority (46-47%).
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Mike88
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« Reply #458 on: October 11, 2020, 10:17:02 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:11:37 AM

Even with Strache out, they are nowhere near an absolute majority (46-47%).


Ah, ok. I thought that all the seats were allocated with the D'Hondt method, but it's has constituencies using the Hare quota. Right.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #459 on: October 11, 2020, 10:17:10 AM »
6pm should be interesting, when the 1st real projection comes („Hochrechnung“) - which includes counted votes.

Once again, all trend polls so far are just polls, not counted votes.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #460 on: October 11, 2020, 10:20:39 AM »
Both the FPÖ and Strache party headquarter crowds look like a truck plowed over them ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #461 on: October 11, 2020, 10:26:43 AM »
Vienna results page (in English) is online:

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/GR201/index.html
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #462 on: October 11, 2020, 10:27:36 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:20:39 AM
Both the FPÖ and Strache party headquarter crowds look like a truck plowed over them ...

Oh dear, what a shame, never mind Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #463 on: October 11, 2020, 10:31:59 AM »
Quote from: CumbrianLeftie on October 11, 2020, 10:27:36 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 11, 2020, 10:20:39 AM
Both the FPÖ and Strache party headquarter crowds look like a truck plowed over them ...

Oh dear, what a shame, never mind Smiley

Yeah, but bad that the Far-Right still gets 14-15% right now in a city like Vienna, despite all their recent scandals.

On the other hand, I think this is not the end of the evening so far ... in previous elections, the FPÖ was always overestimated in the 1st projections by about 1% and then dropped back during the count.

The FPÖ at 9% today and Strache failing with 4.99% would be beautiful.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #464 on: October 11, 2020, 10:37:26 AM »

First precincts should come in after 6pm.

Then the count should progress quickly and finish around 9pm.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #465 on: October 11, 2020, 10:59:13 AM »
A first real Hochrechnung (1st projection) based on counted votes should come soon.

They are still calculating, because it also includes an estimate for the 360.000 postal/absentee votes, which are the big unknown.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #466 on: October 11, 2020, 11:04:37 AM »
1st Hochrechnung.

Shocked
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #467 on: October 11, 2020, 11:05:50 AM »
Both FPÖ & Strache obliterated.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #468 on: October 11, 2020, 11:07:11 AM »
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #469 on: October 11, 2020, 11:09:30 AM »
Huge win for the left-wing parties.

With NEOS (which are center-left in Vienna), almost 70% combined !
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #470 on: October 11, 2020, 12:06:07 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2020, 01:08:41 PM by CumbrianLeftie »
Well that is even worse for the FPO than predicted, if confirmed.
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Former President tack50
tack50
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« Reply #471 on: October 11, 2020, 12:46:28 PM »
Why did the FPO collapse so badly? And on that note how did it do so well in 2016 anyways? (you wouldn't expect Vienna to be particularly fertile ground for them)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #472 on: October 11, 2020, 01:00:08 PM »
Quote from: Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) on October 11, 2020, 12:46:28 PM
Why did the FPO collapse so badly? And on that note how did it do so well in 2016 anyways? (you wouldn't expect Vienna to be particularly fertile ground for them)

2015.

5-year term.

They did so well in 2015, because the election was held at the absolute perfect time for a far-right party: a couple weeks after a million illegal Arabs and Africans streamed into Austria.

Also: SPÖVP at the time was a joke and HC in full command of a successful FPÖ.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #473 on: October 11, 2020, 01:13:10 PM »
The Election Day votes are now 99% counted.

Postal/absentee votes (382.000) are counted tomorrow and maybe on Tuesday too, depending on the workload and speed.

Turnout will only be 62-63% incl. those absentee ballots, down 12-13% from the high 75% in 2015.

Sad

This could be pretty good news for Biden though:

There were record absentee requests early on, then they tapered off closer to Election Day and a weak Election Day vote. The Left banked most votes early, while the Right collapsed.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #474 on: October 11, 2020, 01:30:52 PM »
Women in Vienna between the ages of 16-29 voted:

36% Green
36% SPÖ
11% Beer/Left/SÖZ (all 3 are leftist parties, even Beer)
  9% NEOS
  5% ÖVP
  3% FPÖ
  1% Strache
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