🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

278.000 absentee ballots have been issued in Vienna until Friday.

That’s up from 244.500 on Wednesday morning.

So, basically +33.500 in 3 days.

That’s ca. +10.000 per day.

Last Saturday, Vienna election offices also were open until noon, so ca. 283k I guess.

Then, this week and next week an estimated +60.000 each.

But there’s usually a rush towards the end, so probably 60.000 this week and 80.000 next week.

283k+60+80 = 423.000 absentee ballots

In a 70% turnout election and if 90% of absentee ballots are cast, that would still mean every 2nd vote cast would be by absentee ballot (early in-person or by post).

[Tender Branson]

Because of the absentee ballot record, the city of Vienna is reminding voters not to forget the signature on the envelope. Otherwise, the ballot is invalid. Lots of first-time voters (incl. old people) are forgetting it.

https://twitter.com/claudiazettel/status/1310654443873017858
https://twitter.com/stadt_wien/status/1308720011964493825

[Tender Branson]

278.000 absentee ballots have been issued in Vienna until Friday.

That’s up from 244.500 on Wednesday morning.

So, basically +33.500 in 3 days.

That’s ca. +10.000 per day.

Last Saturday, Vienna election offices also were open until noon, so ca. 283k I guess.

Then, this week and next week an estimated +60.000 each.

But there’s usually a rush towards the end, so probably 60.000 this week and 80.000 next week.

283k+60+80 = 423.000 absentee ballots

In a 70% turnout election and if 90% of absentee ballots are cast, that would still mean every 2nd vote cast would be by absentee ballot (early in-person or by post).

On Saturday, 12.000 were issued in 4 hours.

Up to 290.000 by Monday, 7AM.

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/chronik/wien/2076729-Wahlkarten-ausfuellen-fuer-Dummies.html

[PSOL]

I couldn’t resist

Jacobin Magazine interviewed someone from LINKS about the Vienna Parliamentary Election

[Tender Branson]

I couldn’t resist

Jacobin Magazine interviewed someone from LINKS about the Vienna Parliamentary Election

This article reads itself as if the Vienna-SPÖ has completely failed and LINKS is some kind of Bernie Sanders salvation force.

In fact, the opposite is true.

The article says that Red Vienna and its role model urban public housing from the 1920s is not built upon, but the city has launched Europe’s largest urban building project the last decade with the creation of a whole new living district for 50.000 people and employment opportunities. It’s called Seestadt Aspern („Lake City Aspern“).

The area north of Vienna looked like Dubai 10 years ago, with fields and steppe - but has now been completely transformed into awesome, affordable housing, kindergartens, schools etc.

Also, mayor Michael Ludwig is pushing the SPÖ to around 45% in a few weeks, levels not seen for a long time. He’s also working closely together with the Greens in the coalition, so that a lot of former pedestrian streets also used by cars have now been transformed mostly into pedestrian zones for bikers and e-scooter riders.

Links will get 1.5%

[Tender Branson]

Vienna poll (Market / derStandard.at, n=787, Sept. 25-29):

42% SPÖ (+2)
21% ÖVP (+12)
16% Greens (+4)
  9% FPÖ (-22)
  6% NEOS (n.c.)
  4% THC (+4)
  2% Others (n.c.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120383828/wiener-spoe-konnte-waehrend-des-wahlkampfs-stark-zulegen

Among voters younger than 30, SPÖ+Greens get 30% each.

[CumbrianLefty]

Whisper it, but "traditional" social democracy does seem to be tentatively emerging from its recent electoral trough in a few places now.

[Tender Branson]

Whisper it, but "traditional" social democracy does seem to be tentatively emerging from its recent electoral trough in a few places now.

If they keep shutting the f**k up about immigration and instead focus on issues that matter to working class folks, the SocialDems should be fine the next years and recover.

Unless there’s a massive psychological fallout over Covid and it’s economic and social effects in ca. 3-10 years that turns people back to the Far-Right.

[Tender Branson]

278.000 absentee ballots have been issued in Vienna until Friday.

That’s up from 244.500 on Wednesday morning.

So, basically +33.500 in 3 days.

That’s ca. +10.000 per day.

Last Saturday, Vienna election offices also were open until noon, so ca. 283k I guess.

Then, this week and next week an estimated +60.000 each.

But there’s usually a rush towards the end, so probably 60.000 this week and 80.000 next week.

283k+60+80 = 423.000 absentee ballots

In a 70% turnout election and if 90% of absentee ballots are cast, that would still mean every 2nd vote cast would be by absentee ballot (early in-person or by post).

On Saturday, 12.000 were issued in 4 hours.

Up to 290.000 by Monday, 7AM.

https://www.wienerzeitung.at/nachrichten/chronik/wien/2076729-Wahlkarten-ausfuellen-fuer-Dummies.html

I'm upping my absentee ballot request estimate to 445.000, because there are new figures out.

Until yesterday 7AM, about 328.000 absentee ballots have been issued in Vienna.

That is 38.000 more than on Monday morning, so ca. 13.000 per day since then.

https://www.pressreader.com/austria/der-standard/20201002/281603832917382

That would bring the total until tomorrow noon to ~366.000 ballots issued.

I expect another 80.000 during next week, the final week before the election.

[Tender Branson]

The ORF debate for Vienna between Nepp (FPÖ) and Strache yesterday was lively:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120450631/offene-paartherapie-im-tv-duell-zwischen-nepp-und-strache

Nepp said Strache is all about „me, me, me, victim, victim, victim !“ while in turn Strache called Nepp „a backstabber, my son Brutus (=traitor)“.

Then Nepp said „Strache needs a certain decency, reflection for his actions because he disappointed Austrians and most FPÖ members and former colleagues, many of whom are now unemployed or under investigation“.

Then Strache said to Nepp: „You have been a good student of mine, but now it’s shabby that your only program is being ice-cold against me !“

Nepp: „My program is FOR Vienna ! We are the original!“

The 2 ORF moderators called the debate a „live couple therapy“ and naively asked both if there’s a chance for re-unification ...

[Samof94]

The Austrian Constitutional Court will start their fall session today with a new composition of judges and hear arguments about the controversial topic of assisted suicide.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120217411/warum-das-recht-auf-sterbehilfe-so-heftig-umstritten-ist

Editorial pro-assisted suicide:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120214242/sterbehilfe-erlauben-im-geist-der-selbstbestimmung

Editorial against-assisted suicide:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120210357/sterbehilfe-nicht-erlauben-toeten-als-tabubruch

The Court consists of 14 members, who are appointed by either the federal government, the Nationalrat or Bundesrat. The Austrian President is swearing them in, but has a veto possibility.

Unlike in the US, the judges are not appointed for life, but have to retire at 70.

The Court consists of 10 men and 4 women and has an ÖVP-affiliated President and Green-affiliated Vice-President.

6 of the judges are close to the ÖVP, 5 SPÖ-affiliated, 2 FPÖ-near and 1 Green-minded.

Claudia Kahr is the oldest judge (since 1999), Verena Madner (Vice-President) the newest since April 2020.

The current Court is tilting 8-6 Right/Left, but is in fact pretty independent and has thrown out several laws of the right-wing ÖVP/FPÖ government in the past.

Many countries are similar to Austria when it comes to judges. American style life appointments are the exception, not the rule. The Japanese are similar and also have 70 as a retirement age. In Canada, RBG would be impossible as no judge can serve past 75.  How do they work with an even number of judges?

[Tender Branson]

Many countries are similar to Austria when it comes to judges. American style life appointments are the exception, not the rule. The Japanese are similar and also have 70 as a retirement age. In Canada, RBG would be impossible as no judge can serve past 75.  How do they work with an even number of judges?

Yes, Austria has 14 judges.

But the President of the Court doesn't vote, so it's only 13 (max.)

But not all 13 judges need to be present for decisions. Only 8 need to be present.

The President of the Court then only casts the deciding vote in the event of a tie.

This is called Dirimierungsrecht (from Latin: dirimere) - The right to differ(entiate).

[CumbrianLefty]

The ORF debate for Vienna between Nepp (FPÖ) and Strache yesterday was lively:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120450631/offene-paartherapie-im-tv-duell-zwischen-nepp-und-strache

Nepp said Strache is all about „me, me, me, victim, victim, victim !“ while in turn Strache called Nepp „a backstabber, my son Brutus (=traitor)“.

Then Nepp said „Strache needs a certain decency, reflection for his actions because he disappointed Austrians and most FPÖ members and former colleagues, many of whom are now unemployed or under investigation“.

Then Strache said to Nepp: „You have been a good student of mine, but now it’s shabby that your only program is being ice-cold against me !“

Nepp: „My program is FOR Vienna ! We are the original!“

The 2 ORF moderators called the debate a „live couple therapy“ and naively asked both if there’s a chance for re-unification ...

Great stuff, long may it continue

[Samof94]

Many countries are similar to Austria when it comes to judges. American style life appointments are the exception, not the rule. The Japanese are similar and also have 70 as a retirement age. In Canada, RBG would be impossible as no judge can serve past 75.  How do they work with an even number of judges?

Yes, Austria has 14 judges.

But the President of the Court doesn't vote, so it's only 13 (max.)

But not all 13 judges need to be present for decisions. Only 8 need to be present.

The President of the Court then only casts the deciding vote in the event of a tie.
Okay, so they avert the obvious problems.
This is called Dirimierungsrecht (from Latin: dirimere) - The right to differ(entiate).

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna poll (probably the last before the election) by OGM for the „Krone“:



https://www.krone.at/2244210

[Tender Branson]

OGM trend chart for the Vienna election, since the start of the year:



SPÖ steadily going up, Greens largely stable at a high level, ÖVP and NEOS going down.

NEOS has a very new, young, carpetbagging frontrunner with low name-ID.

The voter trade-offs between FPÖ and Strache should be interesting: I hope the FPÖ ends up below 10%, but hands enough votes to Strache so that he fails with 4.99% of the vote.

[Tender Branson]

About 1/3 of Vienna residents older than 16 are not eligible to vote in the upcoming state election, because they are non-citizens.

Pollster OGM did an analysis by Vienna precinct:

Most foreigners not eligible to vote are living in inner-city precincts. One exception is the large urban development project I mentioned earlier ("Seestadt Aspern") in the North-East, which is Europe's largest urban development project and aims for gentrification of the city.

[Tender Branson]

Peter Kraus, Green MP in Vienna, future city councillor and gay is out with a cool new tweet about Trump's "proud boys" ...

https://twitter.com/peterkraus/status/1312681613843668993

[Tender Branson]

The last week before the Vienna election !

The "Kronen Zeitung" (read by 3 million Austrians) is out with a social media ranking of parties for the month of September and surprisingly the satiric Beer Party has won it by far:



I expect the Beer Party to be the biggest surprise on Sunday, together with the big victory of SPÖ-mayor Ludwig.

Meanwhile, H.C. Strache is out with a tweet wishing Trump well:

https://twitter.com/HCStrache1/status/1312526851219226624

[Tender Branson]

There will be 3 (!) Elephant TV debates today, tomorrow and on Thursday for Vienna:

Today: Kronen Zeitung / Puls24 debate
Tomorrow: Puls4 / ATV debate
Thursday: ORF debate

Even though half of all voters have already voted ...

Meanwhile, 5/6 main candidates have already voted (incl. FPÖ's Nepp and HC Strache, who campaigned heavily against postal voting a few years ago).

Only Mayor Ludwig has said he'll vote in-person at his precinct on Sunday.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, there were already one-on-one TV duels on Puls24 between the frontrunners in Vienna (with Blümel from the ÖVP missing because he had to wait for a COVID-test):



Pollster OGM asked a 500-sample panel after each duel about who on:

 

 

 

 

 

About 750.000 people watched the duels, which is a lot considering it's a Vienna election only.

I also watched a few duels, especially Strache vs. Nepp (which was very nasty) and I noticed that Birgit Hebein from the Greens is an absolutely terrible debater.

[CumbrianLefty]

Consistently strong showings for the SPO there.

[Tender Branson]

SOS Mitmensch, an NGO, hosted their traditional Pass-Egal-Wahl ("passport doesn't matter vote") ahead of the Vienna state election.



Every third Vienna resident above 16 cannot vote on Sunday, because they don't have Austrian citizenship.

That's well over 500.000 people.

Ca. 1.500 people with a foreign citizenship took part - and as usual, the results are pretty lopsided towards the Left parties.



Those results will have nothing in common really with the results on Sunday (especially not those for the Greens or LINKS ...)

https://www.sosmitmensch.at/rekordbeteiligung-bei-wiener-pass-egal-wahl-trotz-corona-pandemie

[Omega21]

Green Party candidate said in an Arabic Show:

"By Allah, we have spoken about this topic before […] For the well-being of the children, we want to arbitrate between the parents. It is a good thing and we will try to solve this social problem even though we are against the laws of this country because these laws protect women and give them custody rights and also the rights to raise children."

Now that's woke lol

Important to note that the Greens have distanced themselves from these views and say they will "deal with it" after the election.

https://www.oe24.at/wien-wahl-2020/mega-wirbel-um-gruenen-kandidat-abdelati-krimi/449162908

[Tender Branson]

Green Party candidate said in an Arabic Show:

"By Allah, we have spoken about this topic before […] For the well-being of the children, we want to arbitrate between the parents. It is a good thing and we will try to solve this social problem even though we are against the laws of this country because these laws protect women and give them custody rights and also the rights to raise children."

Now that's woke lol

Important to note that the Greens have distanced themselves from these views and say they will "deal with it" after the election.

https://www.oe24.at/wien-wahl-2020/mega-wirbel-um-gruenen-kandidat-abdelati-krimi/449162908

Should be noted that the guy is ranked #40 on the Green list for Vienna.

Even if the Greens get 25%, he would not make it into parliament ...

But it's no secret that many Muslim/Arab immigrants have pretty disturbing, backwards views.