🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Hnv1]

Hilarious story about Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens) and his wife:

Austrian restaurants are open again, but they need to close at 11pm (therefore nightclubs are not allowed yet).

20 minutes after midnight today, police were called to a restaurant in Vienna where an "obviously romantic couple" was still sitting in the outside area.

The "romantic couple" was President VdB and his wife Doris ...

Police filed a report with the responsible Vienna district administration about the gastronomy violation resulting from it.

The office of VdB confirmed the incident and the President apologized for it today, saying "he and his wife were deeply in talks and must have forgotten about the time".

The restaurant owner said that he closed everything at 11pm and expected guests still outside to leave eventually.

The FPÖ mocked the President today for it.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117665947/bundespraesident-war-zu-lang-im-gastgarten

Should be noted that President VdB currently has no bodyguards or "secret service" protection and therefore the 2 were really alone there. He often goes shopping too alone or is riding the subway alone.

There is also a more serious aspect after all:

The Vienna police confirmed a corresponding report on Krone.at on Sunday afternoon. According to the report, the two prominent guests also had drinks on the table during the routine police check-up at 0.18 a.m. - which, according to Covid 19 law, is prohibited after 11 p.m.

This could have expensive consequences for the host. For violations of the Covid 19 measure laws, restaurateurs - for example, keeping open after 11:00 p.m. - are subject to a fine of up to 30,000 euros. Officially, the restaurant was already closed at this point.

In other words: the President and his wife + the restaurant owner broke the law.

While the President is immune to prosecution, his wife and the restaurant owner are not.

Also:

Immunity

The Austrian President enjoys full sovereign immunity from any type of official prosecution, including civil suit and criminal prosecution. The president may only be prosecuted with the explicit consent of the Federal Assembly. If a government authority intends to prosecute the president, it must refer a request for extradition to the National Council. If the National Council approves, the chancellor must convene the Federal Assembly, which will then decide over the request for extradition.

Will be interesting to see if the FPÖ files a motion to revoke the immunity of the President to charge him with a crime.

The Greens never missed a chance to vote for revoking the immunity of FPÖ-politicians, so the FPÖ could "return the favour" this time ...

Austria in a nutshell - a scandal where the President is having a deep relationship with his wife. UK in a nutshell - MPs go to male rent boys

[CumbrianLefty]

[...]

  6% THC
  2% Others

Support for re-unification between FPÖ and THC ?

Among FPÖ-voters: 40% for, 48% against
Among THC-voters: 55% for, 30% against
Among ÖVP-voters: ca. 10% for

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200612_OTS0121/atv-wien-trend-spoe-bei-wien-wahl-stabil-in-front-38-fpoe-auch-mit-kickl-als-spitzenkanditat-im-keller-8

THC is an... interesting abbreviation for Strache's Party.

In what way?

[crals]

[...]

  6% THC
  2% Others

Support for re-unification between FPÖ and THC ?

Among FPÖ-voters: 40% for, 48% against
Among THC-voters: 55% for, 30% against
Among ÖVP-voters: ca. 10% for

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200612_OTS0121/atv-wien-trend-spoe-bei-wien-wahl-stabil-in-front-38-fpoe-auch-mit-kickl-als-spitzenkanditat-im-keller-8

THC is an... interesting abbreviation for Strache's Party.

In what way?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetrahydrocannabinol

[Tender Branson]

More than 52% of Vienna (non-university) students now speak something else than German at home (= primary/native language):



It also depends which district they are living in (ranging from 25% to 73%) and which type of school (elementary, middle, vocational, high school, etc.)

Polytechnical schools (whose students often go on to blue-collar jobs) have the highest shares of non-German speakers, while AHS/BHS (who often go on to white-collar jobs such as teaching, bio-tech or banking/insurance jobs) have below-average shares. I for example used to go to a AHS.

Some individual schools in Vienna have 95%+ shares of students with non-German speaking background.

[rob in cal]

Tender, do we have the breakdown of which languages are the leading ones by %.

[Tender Branson]

Tender, do we have the breakdown of which languages are the leading ones by %.

Can't find it for the latest school year (2018/19), but I once posted the numbers for 2016:

Link

Turkish and languages from former Yugoslavia and more recently Arab and Romanian/Bulgarian and Hungarian had huge increases.

[Tender Branson]

I sent an email to the election department of Vienna to inquire what their planning is for the Oct. 11 state election and how they can avoid US-style chaos with postal ballots.

It is expected that half of the 850.000 votes or so in October will be postal ballots.

That would mean ca. 500.000 requests and about 440.000 returned postal ballots.

In 2015, there were just 205.000 requests.

Let’s see if and what they send back to me ...

I actually got a reply today:

Dear Mr. xxxxx,

The municipal department 62, as the department responsible for organizing the Vienna municipal and district elections 2020, may thank you for the submitted proposals. We are very happy if citizens are very interested in the so important democratic instrument of an election and also submit suggestions for improving the organizational process.

At the same time, we can assure you that the organizational planning for the 2020 municipal and district elections in Vienna is likely to result in a higher or even very high number of postal voting votes as well as the necessary health protection measures for both those entitled to vote and for the handling electoral staff. Accordingly, the number of employees will be increased to the extent necessary.

The citizens of Vienna will of course also be informed about the measures taken in good time before the elections.

We are at your disposal for any further questions.

Sincerely yours

Magistrate of the City of Vienna
Municipal Department 62
Elections and various legal matters
Lerchenfelder Strasse 4, 1082 Vienna
Tel. + 43/1 / 4000-89401, fax. + 43/1 / 4000-99-89402
http://www.wien.at/verwaltung/ma62

[Tender Branson]

New (Oct. 11) Vienna state election poll by "Market" for the "Standard" (June 15-18):

38% SPÖ (-1.6%)
25% ÖVP (+15.8%)
16% Greens (+4.2%)
  9% FPÖ (-21.8%)
  7% NEOS (+0.8%)
  4% THC (+4.0%)
  1% Others (-1.4%)

Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) is far ahead in the hypothetical mayoral direct vote and voters do not really want change. They favour SPÖ-Greens to continue for another 5 years.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000118200784/umfrage-zeigt-aufwind-fuer-wiener-oevp

[Tender Branson]

I sent an email to the election department of Vienna to inquire what their planning is for the Oct. 11 state election and how they can avoid US-style chaos with postal ballots.

Vienna announced a measure package today for the state elections (Google translated):

Vienna election: City recommends own pen

Vienna will vote on October 11th. The corona virus pandemic poses special challenges for the city. In order to take precautions, an extensive package of measures has now been put together. It is recommended to take your own pen with you.

Strict security regulations will apply to polling stations if necessary. It is also possible that the end result will come later than usual. A separate pen is also recommended. In the past few weeks, a team consisting of lawyers, health and logistics experts, among others, has been working on how the ballot can be carried out, explained the responsible city councilor Jürgen Czernohorszky (SPÖ) and the head of the municipal department 62 (elections and various legal matters), Christine Bachofner, on Thursday.

Submission deadline is August 14th

The aim is that all persons authorized to do so can exercise their right to vote and that the best possible protection against the risk of infection with the corona virus is granted, it said. As one of the first steps, an amendment to the municipal electoral code will be adopted at the state parliament session on Thursday. Specifically, the deadline is set on July 14th, which is an advance by one week. The deadline for submitting the candidate lists ("election proposals") ends on August 14 for the district and district election proposals and on August 17 for the city election proposals ("state lists").

The deadlines will be brought into line with the National Council regulations - and there is one week more for the organizational handling of the election card issuance. Because in the town hall it is expected that more people than ever will opt for postal voting. There are no estimates yet of how high the share will be, but a massive increase will also make the counting a challenge.

The counting of postal votes is expected to take a long time

For this reason, a further legal clarification will take place: The counting of postal votes does not have to be completed on Monday after the election day, as is currently the case. The preliminary end result could therefore only be available on Tuesday. In any case, there will be more personnel for the counting in the municipal district offices.

It is also not entirely ruled out that, in view of possible safety regulations when counting, the result of the votes cast in the polling station on Sunday will be slightly delayed. This is usually at 8 p.m. The election deadline in Vienna is uniformly at 5:00 p.m. This will not change this year either.

Strict security regulations planned

In order to keep the rush on election day as low as possible, the city itself will increasingly point out the possibility of postal voting. Anyone who comes to the polling station may expect strict security regulations. How strict the measures will be will depend on the corona virus situation or the corresponding legal requirements.

In any case, the following are provided: Compliance with the one-meter distance in the building and in the polling station. Additional folders should ensure this. Extensive cleaning measures are also planned. Furthermore, voters are asked to bring their own pen with them to be checked. However, promises will be made in the pub that they will be disinfected after each use.

Challenge for flying electoral authorities

Polling stations that are smaller than 40 square meters will not be used this year. Also, voting options in nursing homes may only be used by people who live there. If wearing a mouth-nose guard is mandatory on October 11, plexiglass walls will also be built. Because: At least briefly voters will have to remove the protection in order to be identifiable.

The so-called flying electoral authorities who visit people at home are specially equipped. They use double mouth-nose protection and carry, among other things, writing pads that are used only once. The equipment will be far more extensive when visiting Coronavirus infected or suspected cases. In addition to medical masks, protective gowns are then worn, which are destroyed immediately after each use. Medical personnel are also involved in these cases.

13,000 people in action

The local council or the state parliament and the district representations are elected. Around 1.356 million people are eligible to vote. Including assessors, confidants and election witnesses of the parties, around 13,000 people are involved in the Vienna election, according to the town hall.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3054815

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ-Green city government of Vienna has sent 50€ restaurant gift cards to every household.

That comes roughly 3 months before the state election and at a time when restaurants are really struggling, with many closing for good because of the recent months.

The initiative came from Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ), who apparently has learned fast how to apply good populist politics. The vouchers were sent to 950.000 households in the city, with a letter from the mayor included.



I expect the Greens and ÖVP to do slightly worse in the election than current polling, but the SPÖ to receive more than 40% and gain compared to 2015 ...

[Tender Branson]

Austrian economy to shrink by 7% this year

June 26 (Reuters) - Austrian economic output will likely not reach its pre-crisis level by the end of 2021 after experiencing a short but deep recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, economic institute Wifo said on Friday.

The Vienna-based think tank, which compiles data for the government, expects gross domestic product to shrink by 7% this year - the steepest decline since World War Two - before growing by 4.3% next year.

“The low point has already been passed and the recovery phase has started, but there is still a lot of uncertainty about how things will pan out,” Wifo said, adding this particularly applied to how the pandemic develops and what countermeasures will be taken.

Additionally, the IHS institute on Friday forecast that the Austrian economy would contract by 7.3% this year and expand by 5.8% in 2021 as long as there is not a big second wave of coronavirus infections.

(Reporting by Thomas Seythal in Berlin - Editing by Michelle Martin)

https://www.reuters.com/article/austria-economy/austrian-economy-to-shrink-by-7-this-year-wont-hit-pre-crisis-level-in-2021-wifo-idUSL8N2E31H2

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections tomorrow in the state of Styria (1.25 million people).

Except in the capital Graz (300.000 people) - which traditionally has a different election date.

805.000 people are eligible to vote.

More than 30.000 have voted early (Styria has an early voting day).

An additional 173.000 requested a postal ballot.

Which means about 180.000 votes will be cast early or by post, out of an expected 550.000-600.000 votes in total.

That's 30-35% of all votes that are going to be cast.

https://steiermark.orf.at/magazin/tags/wahl/

Voters are advised to bring their own pens and need to wear masks when entering the polling place (it is still necessary in Austria to wear masks in official buildings, medical areas and public transport).

[Tender Branson]

Had to look it up, but Styria is one of those states that already counts the postal ballots tomorrow after polls close at 4pm.

About 150.000 will be returned + the 34.000 early votes, so let's see how this works.

With an overall turnout of ca. 66-75%, I expect a final result by 9 or 10pm.

If they really count all postal ballots tomorrow. But I guess they will.

[Tender Branson]

These are the historical municipal election results of Styria:



It should be noted that elections are held in all 285 towns/cities (except the capital Graz).

But the ÖVP is the only party running in all 285.

The SPÖ in 278, the FPÖ in 233, the Greens in 102, the Communists (KPÖ) in 37, NEOS in 30 and Independent lists in 80.

That would explain the historically low results for the Greens, KPÖ and NEOS, because A) they don't have the coverage like they do in state/federal elections and B) their stronghold Graz doesn't vote tomorrow.

It will still be interesting to watch the final result and see if the FPÖ collapses, how much the ÖVP improves from an already high level and if the SPÖ stabilizes or falls again. I also expect gains for the Greens and small gains for the Communists.

The combined statewide results should be:

49% ÖVP
30% SPÖ
  8% FPÖ
  6% Greens
  2% KPÖ
  1% NEOS
  4% Indys

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Really happy about how things are changing in Austria

[Tender Branson]

Really happy about how things are changing in Austria.

What do you mean ?

BTW: the last polls already close at 3pm tomorrow, not 4pm. 4pm is for state elections.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Really happy about how things are changing in Austria.

What do you mean ?

BTW: the last polls already close at 3pm tomorrow, not 4pm. 4pm is for state elections.

Decline of FPO

[Tender Branson]

Really happy about how things are changing in Austria.

What do you mean ?

BTW: the last polls already close at 3pm tomorrow, not 4pm. 4pm is for state elections.

Decline of FPÖ.

Ah yeah, that's a nice development.

But ÖVP-Greens won't be popular forever and the FPÖ will at some point rise again ...

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, a revival of SPO in those circumstances would be nice......

[Tender Branson]

Well, a revival of SPO in those circumstances would be nice......

I think it’s more likely that the SPÖ loses more ground tomorrow than there being a „revival“.

The Greens have better coverage in the Styria municipalities tomorrow compared to 2015, taking votes away from the SPÖ. Also, the KPÖ could take some votes away. FPÖ-voters from 2015 will go mostly to the ÖVP, or stay home.

The chances for a SPÖ „revival“ are much higher in the October election in Vienna ...

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for the "Kurier":



ÖVP+Greens down slightly from their COVID-highs a few months ago. SPÖ+FPÖ+NEOS gaining slightly.

Direct vote for Chancellor:

55% Kurz
15% Rendi-Wagner
11% Kogler
11% Hofer
  6% Meinl-Reisinger

Also:

By a 50-48 margin, Austrians are following the current "Ibiza video" investigation committee in parliament, but more than 7 in 10 say that nothing will change in terms of corruption in the country and things will continue like before the video surfaced ...

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/aktuelle-ogm-umfrage-ibiza-u-ausschuss-ist-fuer-mehrheit-sinnlos/400954649

[Tender Branson]

The Styria municipal elections are well underway, with good turnout reported.

It was 74% in 2015, but I guess it will be closer to 70% today.

[Tender Branson]

Polls have closed and results are coming in:

181/285 towns/cities already counted.

https://egov.stmk.gv.at/wah/pub/stdwahl/stdwahlSet.do

ÖVP gains ca. 4-5%, while the FPÖ loses the same amount.

SPÖ loses 1.5%, while the Greens gain 1% and NEOS/KPÖ the other 0.5%

Turnout is down by 10% compared with 2015.

ORF map:

https://orf.at/wahl/steiermark20/choropleth/winner

[Tender Branson]

Result from the town of Eisenerz ("Iron Ore"):





Eisenerz is something like Coal Country in WV.

The city once had 15.000 inhabitants in the 1950s, now just 3.800 anymore.

It has the highest share of people older than 65 in Austria, with a 45% share. (Young) people have abandoned the town after the iron ore mining boom ended.

Now, the town is most famous for the Erzberg Rodeo, a huge annual event where motorcycles drive up the iron ore mountain in the town.

Usually an SPÖ and KPÖ stronghold (in 2015: 53% SPÖ, 20% KPÖ) - it now voted for the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

221/285 towns are counted (but that's only 57% of eligible voters).

The trends are the same:

ÖVP gaining 4.5%, FPÖ losing 5%, SPÖ losing 1%, Greens gaining 1%.