🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully KPÖ can make a breaktrough

They won't. They are only strong in Graz/Styria.

[CumbrianLefty]

Market poll for the "Standard" (May 18-19):

43% ÖVP
21% SPÖ
17% Greens
12% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  1% Others

65% the current measures by ÖVP-Greens to prevent the spread of the virus are justified
30% the measures are overblown
  5% the measures are not strict enough

32% ÖVP-Greens should open up the economy/society faster
23% it should be opened slower than right now
46% the current pace of opening-up is about right

(Boomers are the most in favour of opening up faster, while young voters are the most sceptical.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117614965/weniger-persoenliche-sorgen-weniger-zustimmung-zu-kurz

What shocking news.

[Tender Branson]

Hilarious story about Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens) and his wife:

Austrian restaurants are open again, but they need to close at 11pm (therefore nightclubs are not allowed yet).

20 minutes after midnight today, police were called to a restaurant in Vienna where an "obviously romantic couple" was still sitting in the outside area.

The "romantic couple" was President VdB and his wife Doris ...

Police filed a report with the responsible Vienna district administration about the gastronomy violation resulting from it.

The office of VdB confirmed the incident and the President apologized for it today, saying "he and his wife were deeply in talks and must have forgotten about the time".

The restaurant owner said that he closed everything at 11pm and expected guests still outside to leave eventually.

The FPÖ mocked the President today for it.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117665947/bundespraesident-war-zu-lang-im-gastgarten

Should be noted that President VdB currently has no bodyguards or "secret service" protection and therefore the 2 were really alone there. He often goes shopping too alone or is riding the subway alone.

[Tender Branson]

Hilarious story about Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens) and his wife:

Austrian restaurants are open again, but they need to close at 11pm (therefore nightclubs are not allowed yet).

20 minutes after midnight today, police were called to a restaurant in Vienna where an "obviously romantic couple" was still sitting in the outside area.

The "romantic couple" was President VdB and his wife Doris ...

Police filed a report with the responsible Vienna district administration about the gastronomy violation resulting from it.

The office of VdB confirmed the incident and the President apologized for it today, saying "he and his wife were deeply in talks and must have forgotten about the time".

The restaurant owner said that he closed everything at 11pm and expected guests still outside to leave eventually.

The FPÖ mocked the President today for it.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117665947/bundespraesident-war-zu-lang-im-gastgarten

Should be noted that President VdB currently has no bodyguards or "secret service" protection and therefore the 2 were really alone there. He often goes shopping too alone or is riding the subway alone.

There is also a more serious aspect after all:

The Vienna police confirmed a corresponding report on Krone.at on Sunday afternoon. According to the report, the two prominent guests also had drinks on the table during the routine police check-up at 0.18 a.m. - which, according to Covid 19 law, is prohibited after 11 p.m.

This could have expensive consequences for the host. For violations of the Covid 19 measure laws, restaurateurs - for example, keeping open after 11:00 p.m. - are subject to a fine of up to 30,000 euros. Officially, the restaurant was already closed at this point.

In other words: the President and his wife + the restaurant owner broke the law.

While the President is immune to prosecution, his wife and the restaurant owner are not.

Also:

Immunity

The Austrian President enjoys full sovereign immunity from any type of official prosecution, including civil suit and criminal prosecution. The president may only be prosecuted with the explicit consent of the Federal Assembly. If a government authority intends to prosecute the president, it must refer a request for extradition to the National Council. If the National Council approves, the chancellor must convene the Federal Assembly, which will then decide over the request for extradition.

Will be interesting to see if the FPÖ files a motion to revoke the immunity of the President to charge him with a crime.

The Greens never missed a chance to vote for revoking the immunity of FPÖ-politicians, so the FPÖ could "return the favour" this time ...

[Tender Branson]

This also has bad optics ... it could re-enforce the perception in the population that VdB is elitist and the Greens are kinda smug and don't care for laws, while the population needs to uphold them.

Good ammunition for the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Van der Bellen says he will pay the fine of the Italian restaurant owner, if charged.

Not clear yet if the Van der Bellens will be charged too ...

[Tender Branson]

New poll:

[CumbrianLefty]

How does that compare with previously?

[Tender Branson]

How does that compare with previously?

ÖVP & Greens down 1% each, FPÖ/Strache up 1% each.

[Tender Branson]

In other news, Austria’s budget for 2020 was finally passed in parliament yesterday.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117786757/was-bei-einem-budget-mit-zahlenfehler-passiert-waere

Not only is it just a forecast budget, because nobody really knows what the final burden on the economy will be because of the virus shutdown and slowdown, but the budget deficit could be anywhere between 6% and 12% this year.

Also: the draft paper included a huge mistake. Instead of reading „outlays of 102 billion €“, it said 102.000€ - which would have made Austria bankrupt within a few hours after being passed by parliament. Someone forgot to include 6 zeros into the text. The text was changed during the night and the corrected budget paper was approved yesterday morning.

A motion of no-confidence against ÖVP finance minister Blümel for gross incompetence was not successful.

[jaymichaud]

Is SPÖ going the way of SPD? They seem to be struggling a lot more than they should be.

[Tender Branson]

Is SPÖ going the way of SPD? They seem to be struggling a lot more than they should be.

More or less.

They could try a leadership change, but that probably won’t help them either.

The SPÖ is under attack from all sides and would need to completely re-invent itself.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna poll for the October 11 state election:



https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wien/Tuerkis-Gruen-Pink-Kopf-an-Kopf-mit-Rot-Gruen/431933793

[Tender Branson]

New Oct. 11 Vienna state election poll (Unique Research/"Heute" newspaper):



Turnout: 78% (+3.2%)

2015:

39.6% SPÖ
30.8% FPÖ
11.8% Greens
  9.2% ÖVP
  6.2% NEOS
  2.4% Others

https://www.heute.at/s/heute-umfrage-fpoe-stuerzt-ab-strache-ueberholt-nepp-100085632

[Tender Branson]

The Vice-Governor of Tyrol state (ÖVP) has recently called a female environmentalist NGO-leader a widerwärtiges Luder during a TV-interview with her.

Translated, it basically means „disgusting bitch“.

https://twitter.com/wwfaustria/status/1268466479260893187
After an apology, he will remain in office ...

https://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/tiroler-oevp-landesvize-beschimpft-wwf-vertreterin-vor-laufender-kamera/400930886

PS: the ÖVP is in a coalition with the environmentalist Greens in Tyrol, with the Green-leader Ingrid Felipe standing next to him.

[Tender Branson]

Coronavirus seems to have no impact on voter turnout ...

The Perchtoldsdorf city council by-election today had 60% turnout, up from 56% in 2015.

It is a city in the southern suburbs of Vienna with ca. 15.000 people.

ÖVP gets 48%, but lost 11%.

Greens 19% (+8).

Indys 13% (+6).

SPÖ 9% (-2).

NEOS 8% (+3).

FPÖ 2% (-5).

https://perchtoldsdorf.riskommunal.net/system/web/GetDocument.ashx?fileid=2292706

Ca. 45% of all votes that were cast were postal votes.

[Tender Branson]

A Chancellor Kurz „homestory“ parody by Styrian students is going viral:

The guy who plays the Chancellor at „his home“ not only looks like Kurz, but also speaks and gestures like him ...

Other recent examples are Kurz singing:

Or Strache’s comeback as the „Great Dictator“:

[Astatine]

New Oct. 11 Vienna state election poll (Unique Research/"Heute" newspaper):



Turnout: 78% (+3.2%)

2015:

39.6% SPÖ
30.8% FPÖ
11.8% Greens
  9.2% ÖVP
  6.2% NEOS
  2.4% Others

https://www.heute.at/s/heute-umfrage-fpoe-stuerzt-ab-strache-ueberholt-nepp-100085632

Extremely unlikely, but I would love to see both FPÖ and Strache fail the threshold.

[Tender Branson]

I sent an email to the election department of Vienna to inquire what their planning is for the Oct. 11 state election and how they can avoid US-style chaos with postal ballots.

It is expected that half of the 850.000 votes or so in October will be postal ballots.

That would mean ca. 500.000 requests and about 440.000 returned postal ballots.

In 2015, there were just 205.000 requests.

Let’s see if and what they send back to me ...

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today (1x Austria, 1x Vienna state election):

(right-click for big versions)

 

[CumbrianLefty]

New Oct. 11 Vienna state election poll (Unique Research/"Heute" newspaper):



Turnout: 78% (+3.2%)

2015:

39.6% SPÖ
30.8% FPÖ
11.8% Greens
  9.2% ÖVP
  6.2% NEOS
  2.4% Others

https://www.heute.at/s/heute-umfrage-fpoe-stuerzt-ab-strache-ueberholt-nepp-100085632

Extremely unlikely, but I would love to see both FPÖ and Strache fail the threshold.

Possible if there is an almost perfect 50/50 split and they both fall just below it

[Tender Branson]

The Kronen Zeitung newspaper (once pushing the FPÖ/Populist agenda, then Strache wanted to take them over in his Ibiza video) is out with a major hit job against Strache today:



„Strache filed pharmacy purchases as party expenses. Among them: Viagra.“

[Omega21]

The Kronen Zeitung newspaper (once pushing the FPÖ/Populist agenda, then Strache wanted to take them over in his Ibiza video) is out with a major hit job against Strache today:



„Strache filed pharmacy purchases as party expenses. Among them: Viagra.“

FPÖ

F***ing party of Austria lol

[Tender Branson]

Vienna poll (ATV/Hajek):

38% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
17% Greens
  8% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  6% THC
  2% Others

If Kickl runs as lead candidate for the Vienna-FPÖ in October, instead of Nepp, it wouldn't change anything according to the poll.

Support for re-unification between FPÖ and THC ?

Among FPÖ-voters: 40% for, 48% against
Among THC-voters: 55% for, 30% against
Among ÖVP-voters: ca. 10% for

Bei der aktuellen Umfrage wurden 800 wahlberechtigte WienerInnen ab 16 Jahren zu politischen Themen befragt. Die Umfrage wurde zwischen dem 5. und 10. Juni 2020 durchgeführt, die maximale Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse liegt bei +/- 3,4 %.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200612_OTS0121/atv-wien-trend-spoe-bei-wien-wahl-stabil-in-front-38-fpoe-auch-mit-kickl-als-spitzenkanditat-im-keller-8

[Astatine]

[...]

  6% THC
  2% Others

Support for re-unification between FPÖ and THC ?

Among FPÖ-voters: 40% for, 48% against
Among THC-voters: 55% for, 30% against
Among ÖVP-voters: ca. 10% for

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200612_OTS0121/atv-wien-trend-spoe-bei-wien-wahl-stabil-in-front-38-fpoe-auch-mit-kickl-als-spitzenkanditat-im-keller-8

THC is an... interesting abbreviation for Strache's Party.