🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

Is that sort of turnout normal for internal party elections? Looks a bit on the low side to me.

It was the first time the SPÖ did such a leadership membership vote ...

SPÖ (until now), ÖVP and FPÖ do not let their members vote on leadership issues, they have party conventions with party delegates (every 2 years) to approve them (usually with 90%+).

In previous years, only certain party platform topics were approved or not approved in such votes.

Former Chancellor Kern for example held a program survey too, but this one only had 18% turnout among party members, so Rendi-Wagners vote can be seen as „high“ turnout ...

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll:

45% ÖVP
18% Greens
17% SPÖ
10% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

More than 70% continue to approve of the government and their Corona work. But support has dropped by a few points over the past 2 weeks.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-kann-zulegen-OeVP-weiter-auf-Rekordhoch/429119823

[Hnv1]

New Ö24 poll:

45% ÖVP
18% Greens
17% SPÖ
10% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

More than 70% continue to approve of the government and their Corona work. But support has dropped by a few points over the past 2 weeks.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-kann-zulegen-OeVP-weiter-auf-Rekordhoch/429119823

I want an OVP-NEOS government that will pass the constitution amendment about debt and deficit!

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll:

45% ÖVP
18% Greens
17% SPÖ
10% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

More than 70% continue to approve of the government and their Corona work. But support has dropped by a few points over the past 2 weeks.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-kann-zulegen-OeVP-weiter-auf-Rekordhoch/429119823

I want an OVP-NEOS government that will pass the constitution amendment about debt and deficit!

ÖVP + NEOS would have 51%.

That’s far away from a 67% constitutional majority ...

Besides, while I’d be in favour of the constitutional deficit and debt brake as well, it has failed in the past because while ÖVP+FPÖ (with the support from NEOS) had a 2/3 majority in the Nationalrat, it got blocked by the SPÖ and Greens in the Bundesrat chamber.

I do not want ÖVP-NEOS though. Way too neo-liberal.

[Hnv1]

New Ö24 poll:

45% ÖVP
18% Greens
17% SPÖ
10% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

More than 70% continue to approve of the government and their Corona work. But support has dropped by a few points over the past 2 weeks.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-kann-zulegen-OeVP-weiter-auf-Rekordhoch/429119823

I want an OVP-NEOS government that will pass the constitution amendment about debt and deficit!

ÖVP + NEOS would have 51%.

That’s far away from a 67% constitutional majority ...

Besides, while I’d be in favour of the constitutional deficit and debt brake as well, it has failed in the past because while ÖVP+FPÖ (with the support from NEOS) had a 2/3 majority in the Nationalrat, it got blocked by the SPÖ and Greens in the Bundesrat chamber.

I do not want ÖVP-NEOS though. Way too neo-liberal.

But the FPO would vote for even if they were left out of the government right?

How are the OVP not sweeping the different Lander and taking full control of the Bundesrat? is this similar to Germany where somehow the SPD continues to have good grip of states despite poor federal results?

I don't know much about the NEOS, I had the impression that they were more moderate liberals than libertarian fanboys, and much more internationalist than the FDP. If a grand coalition is untenable than I would rather have OVP-NEOS. Greens politics was decent in the past, but the young greens are taking a massive turn to the left

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll:

45% ÖVP
18% Greens
17% SPÖ
10% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  3% DAÖ
  1% Others

More than 70% continue to approve of the government and their Corona work. But support has dropped by a few points over the past 2 weeks.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-kann-zulegen-OeVP-weiter-auf-Rekordhoch/429119823

I want an OVP-NEOS government that will pass the constitution amendment about debt and deficit!

ÖVP + NEOS would have 51%.

That’s far away from a 67% constitutional majority ...

Besides, while I’d be in favour of the constitutional deficit and debt brake as well, it has failed in the past because while ÖVP+FPÖ (with the support from NEOS) had a 2/3 majority in the Nationalrat, it got blocked by the SPÖ and Greens in the Bundesrat chamber.

I do not want ÖVP-NEOS though. Way too neo-liberal.

But the FPO would vote for even if they were left out of the government right?

How are the OVP not sweeping the different Lander and taking full control of the Bundesrat? is this similar to Germany where somehow the SPD continues to have good grip of states despite poor federal results?

I don't know much about the NEOS, I had the impression that they were more moderate liberals than libertarian fanboys, and much more internationalist than the FDP. If a grand coalition is untenable than I would rather have OVP-NEOS. Greens politics was decent in the past, but the young greens are taking a massive turn to the left

If there were indeed a ÖVP-NEOS government and they would introduce a constitutional deficit and debt brake proposal, the FPÖ could support it.

But on the other hand, you never know what the FPÖ wants ... they could also be against, because they want to block the government in such a case.

Anyway, SPÖ+Greens have more than 1/3 of seats in the Bundesrat, blocking the proposal. Even if the FPÖ votes yes, it would get no constitutional majority there.

The Bundesrat composition is indeed based on the latest state election results. Therefore the SPÖ is stronger there relative to the Nationalrat, because the SPÖ gets decent shares in Vienna, Burgenland and Carinthia + the Green results in the states are better as well. The Bundesrat also favours the parties which got 10%+ in state elections, that's why NEOS is not represented there at all.

[crals]

What would be the advantage of such a brake? The Austrian left doesn't seem to be fiscally irresponsible.

[Tender Branson]

What would be the advantage of such a brake? The Austrian left doesn't seem to be fiscally irresponsible.

That we don’t end up like Greece and keep a constantly balanced budget, therefore reducing debt as a percentage of GDP. Debt has shot up from 20% of GDP in the 1970s to 85% a few years ago. Now down to 69% last year, but will be up to 80% this year.

That excludes years with natural disasters or a crisis like this year.

This year, we’ll have a budget deficit of 5-10% of GDP vs. a planned surplus of 1%.

[Tender Branson]

German-born Prof. Dr. Tobias Thomas will become the new head of STATISTICS Austria, after the previous (Faymann-appointed) leader Konrad Pesendorfer resigned and decided to become head of Statistics Saudi-Arabia:

http://ecoaustria.ac.at/en/dr-tobias-thomas/

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117472852/statistik-austria-neuer-chef-mit-gutem-draht-zur-industriellenvereinigung

[Tender Branson]

Support for the ÖVP+Green government has definitely peaked in the past weeks and it can only go downhill from now on ...

New Ö24 poll (May 11-13, n=1.000):

44% ÖVP (-1)
18% SPÖ (+1)
17% Greens (-1)
11% FPÖ (+1)
  7% NEOS (+1)
  2% DAÖ (-1)
  1% Others (n.c.)

ÖVP-Green general job approval: 72%
ÖVP-Green COVID job approval: 75%

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200514_OTS0232/oesterreich-umfrage-spoe-ueberholt-die-gruenen

[Tender Branson]

New Market/Standard poll (May 11-13, n=1.000):

44% ÖVP (n.c.)
21% SPÖ (+1)
17% Greens (-1)
11% FPÖ (+1)
  6% NEOS (-1)
  1% Others (n.c.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117493669/oevp-bleibt-weit-vorn-spoe-sichert-zweiten-platz-ab

[Tender Branson]

DAÖ doesn’t exist anymore ... it’s now called „Team H.C. Strache - Alliance for Austria.“

https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2020-05/heinz-christian-strache-oesterreich-fpoe-neue-partei

DAÖ was always just an interim vehicle for Strache’s comeback anyway.



The logo looks similar to „Team Stronach“ (and I guess Strache’s party will fail just as badly, but by cutting the FPÖs share).

...

In other news, State Secretary for Culture Ulrike Lunacek (Greens) has stepped down today.

I haven’t read much about it, but apparently she got under enormous pressure from the culture and art scene in Austria, which is on the verge of collapse as a consequence of Coronavirus ...

https://orf.at/stories/3165804

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ of my home state Salzburg will get a new, young party leader on July 1:

David Egger (33)

Frankly, I have heard the name for the first time today ...

A complete newcomer who worked as a radio moderator and in PR.

https://salzburg.orf.at/stories/3048769

[CumbrianLefty]

These political parties named after people, do they ever last?

(in Austria you've got the recent Pilz example as well)

[Tender Branson]

These political parties named after people, do they ever last?

(in Austria you've got the recent Pilz example as well)

Very simple:

Strache needs to get 5%+ in the October 11 Vienna state election, or he’ll already be history again ...

[CumbrianLefty]

These political parties named after people, do they ever last?

(in Austria you've got the recent Pilz example as well)

Very simple:

Strache needs to get 5%+ in the October 11 Vienna state election, or he’ll already be history again ...

Hopefully he won't, then!

[Tender Branson]

3rd new poll (Unique Research/Profil magazine):

46% ÖVP (-2)
17% SPÖ (+1)
15% Greens (-1)
14% FPÖ (+1)
  6% NEOS (n.c.)
  2% Others (+1)

Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: ±3,4 Prozentpunkte
Sample: n = 802 Befragte
Feldarbeit: 11. bis 14. Mai 2020

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-kurz-zuspruch-11478926

[Tender Branson]

Interesting finding from a new ATV/Hajek poll today:

"If there's a major second wave of infections in Austria, should there be another complete shutdown of society and the economy ?"

51% No
41% Yes

"No" by party voters: 71% NEOS, 71% FPÖ, 54% SPÖ, 47% ÖVP and 40% Greens.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200516_OTS0014/atv-frage-der-woche-51-der-oesterreicherinnen-sprechen-sich-gegen-totalen-lockdown-bei-weiterer-infektionswelle-aus

[Tender Branson]

Ammunition for the FPÖ+Strache:

https://www.krone.at/2155610

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/Asyl-Skandal-um-mehr-als-100-Corona-Faelle-bei-Post/430161560

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting finding from a new ATV/Hajek poll today:

"If there's a major second wave of infections in Austria, should there be another complete shutdown of society and the economy ?"

51% No
41% Yes

"No" by party voters: 71% NEOS, 71% FPÖ, 54% SPÖ, 47% ÖVP and 40% Greens.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200516_OTS0014/atv-frage-der-woche-51-der-oesterreicherinnen-sprechen-sich-gegen-totalen-lockdown-bei-weiterer-infektionswelle-aus

Lockdowns weren't just designed to slow the spread of the virus, but to buy time to help us better able to counter it even without a vaccine (more effective treatments and so on)

If not much progress has been made on that front, we do indeed have a problem.

[Tender Branson]

Ammunition for the FPÖ+Strache:

https://www.krone.at/2155610

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/Asyl-Skandal-um-mehr-als-100-Corona-Faelle-bei-Post/430161560

Hmm, this scandal has the potential to become a political nuclear bomb for the Vienna-SPÖ (and for the Austrian Post):

https://www.oe24.at/coronavirus/Asyl-Skandal-um-mehr-als-100-Corona-Faelle-bei-Post/430161560

If the reports are true, then many asylum seekers who were put into a 14-day quarantine at the Vienna convention center a few weeks ago were hired by the Austrian Postal Service and were able to get out of the convention center during their quarantine (!) and go to work at the post distribution centers ...

The SPÖ city councillor for health is downplaying it, but for how long ?

[Tender Branson]

Strache’s new party is not starting well:

Christian Höbart, his new general secretary (and also an ex-FPÖ member of the Austrian Parliament) posted a picture groping the boobs of his wife during a trip on Social Media.



https://www.krone.at/2155557

[Tender Branson]

After the resignation of Ulrike Lunacek (Greens) as State Secretary for Culture, the Greens announced today that Andrea Mayer will succeed her.

Mayer is the current Chief of Staff for President Van der Bellen.

https://orf.at/stories/3166191

[Tender Branson]

Market poll for the "Standard" (May 18-19):

43% ÖVP
21% SPÖ
17% Greens
12% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  1% Others

65% the current measures by ÖVP-Greens to prevent the spread of the virus are justified
30% the measures are overblown
  5% the measures are not strict enough

32% ÖVP-Greens should open up the economy/society faster
23% it should be opened slower than right now
46% the current pace of opening-up is about right

(Boomers are the most in favour of opening up faster, while young voters are the most sceptical.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000117614965/weniger-persoenliche-sorgen-weniger-zustimmung-zu-kurz

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Hopefully KPÖ can make a breaktrough