🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
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  🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021
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Author Topic: 🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021  (Read 73068 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #150 on: April 04, 2020, 08:11:57 AM »

And the SPO's lowest since......?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #151 on: April 04, 2020, 12:59:48 PM »


It’s existence.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #152 on: April 09, 2020, 11:17:39 AM »

The Vienna election in Mid-October needs roughly 3 months of planning.

So, the election calendar needs to be set in early July.

Coronavirus needs to be gone here by then, otherwise they will delay the election.

Tricky for the SPÖ-Green city government:

ÖVP and Greens are polling higher than ever before, so the Greens would be advised to vote in October at the regular date. On the other hand, they are in the federal government as well and have a duty to protect the population.

The SPÖ is in the dumpster and wants to vote as late as possible (even though the Vienna-SPÖ is far better positioned than the federal SPÖ).

Still, based on current polling, a majority against the SPÖ would be possible for the 1st time ever. That means Red Vienna would be gone. This would be the Super-GAU (= maximum credible accident) for the SPÖ.

I could see the ÖVP at 25-30% there right now and the Greens at 20%+, with NEOS providing the additional support to oust the SPÖ.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #153 on: April 13, 2020, 12:56:23 PM »

New „Market“ poll for the „Standard“ at the 100-day anniversary of ÖVP-Greens:

44% ÖVP (+6.5)
19% Greens (+5)
19% SPÖ (-2)
11% FPÖ (-5)
  6% NEOS (-2)
  1% Others

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and the government have record-high approval ratings.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000116755429/nach-100-tagen-ist-die-tuerkis-gruene-regierung-im-umfragehoch
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #154 on: April 15, 2020, 06:27:36 AM »

The Vienna election in Mid-October needs roughly 3 months of planning.

Vienna Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ) today:

"We will vote on October 11."

Extraordinary events (such as a 2nd wave of infections) could still prevent it, but right now all signs are on "Go".

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3044123
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #155 on: April 16, 2020, 03:26:32 AM »

ÖVP nearing absolute majority-territory:

ATV Trend/Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies (7.-14. April, n=807)

46% ÖVP (+8.5)
17% SPÖ (-4.2)
16% Greens (+2.1)
10% FPÖ (-6.2)
  7% NEOS (-1.1)
  3% DAÖ (+3.0)
  1% Others (-2.1)

Vote for Chancellor:

62% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP-incumbent)
12% Werner Kogler (Greens)
11% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
  7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
  5% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
  2% Heinz-Christian Strache (DAÖ)
  1% Others

ÖVP-Green government approval rating:

76% approve
21% disapprove
  3% undecided

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200415_OTS0127/atv-oesterreich-trend-acht-von-zehn-oesterreicherinnen-sind-mit-der-demokratie-zufrieden

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20200416_OTS0046/atv-oesterreich-trend-glaubwuerdigkeit-von-gruenen-dank-corona-gestiegen
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #156 on: April 16, 2020, 03:52:58 AM »

Why are the Greens rising so much in German-speaking countries?

I get why they are rising in Germany, with the SPD being officially useless and Linke being probably a step too far for most voters, but why are they rising in Austria?

Is it some sort of rally with the flag event or what?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #157 on: April 16, 2020, 05:21:44 AM »

Why are the Greens rising so much in German-speaking countries?

I get why they are rising in Germany, with the SPD being officially useless and Linke being probably a step too far for most voters, but why are they rising in Austria?

Is it some sort of rally with the flag event or what?

Different dynamics in each country:

* In Germany, they were rising because of anti-government sentiment (Union/SPD grand coalition fatigue among the population and besides that, Union/SPD had a very lackluster government performance as well and some scandals. Also: climate strikes helped them, but the party now seems to have peaked.)

* In Austria, they are rising because the SPÖ behaved like a total joke over the past few years and the climate strikes and GP-leader Kogler's calm and folksy revivial of the party earned them a lot of respect. Now, in government, they are benefitting from a rally-around-the-flag effect (the Green Health Minister is doing a great job and has similar personal approval ratings as Chancellor Kurz). Also: List Pilz disappeared last year.

* In Switzerland, they were rising because of the climate strikes and maybe other factors that I'm not aware of (I don't follow Swiss politics, because it's boring as hell.)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #158 on: April 16, 2020, 05:31:06 AM »

Why are the Greens rising so much in German-speaking countries?

I get why they are rising in Germany, with the SPD being officially useless and Linke being probably a step too far for most voters, but why are they rising in Austria?

Is it some sort of rally with the flag event or what?

On top of the reasons I already mentioned, Green Party support in many European countries is rising because Social Democratic parties get squeezed like an orange from 2 sides:

* Younger, educated people don't see SD parties as "hipster" enough, but view the Greens as such. Young people associate SD as "outdated" and are not aware anymore of the success that SD brought forward for their parents and grandparents (40-hour workweek, paid sick leave, minimum wages etc.)

* Blue-collar workers abandon the party for Far-Right parties, because they think that SD parties (rightly so) have become too immigration-fiendly.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #159 on: April 16, 2020, 07:07:31 AM »

The Swiss Greens did significantly better in French Switzerland (~19%) than in German Switzerland (~11%). They're doing well for a combination of demographic reasons (younger, multicultural, more urban, highly educated and increasingly culturally liberal population) as well as issue salience (climate strikes, repeat heatwaves, melting glaciers and the fact it doesn't snow in winter any more is a little bit hard to ignore). The majority of their new support in 2019 came from previous non-voters rather than from the Socialists.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #160 on: April 18, 2020, 02:51:51 AM »

Shocked

Profil/Unique Research (13.-16. April, n=806):

48% ÖVP (+10.5)
16% Greens (+2.1)
16% SPÖ (-5.2)
13% FPÖ (-3.2)
  6% NEOS (-2.1)
  1% Others (-2.1)

Vote for Chancellor:

55% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP-incumbent)
  8% Werner Kogler (Greens)
  8% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
  7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
  3% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
19% Others/None/Undecided

Quote
Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: ±3,4 Prozentpunkte
Sample: n = 806 Befragte
Feldarbeit: 13. bis 16. April 2020

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-corona-11452832
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #161 on: April 18, 2020, 07:26:57 AM »

When was the last time OVP polled at 50%, not for decades I would have thought?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #162 on: April 18, 2020, 07:36:48 AM »

When was the last time OVP polled at 50%, not for decades I would have thought?

The Austrian ÖVP has never polled 50% or got 50% in an election.

In fact, this 48% today is the 3rd-best showing for the party since the end of WW2:

* 1945 election right after the War ended: 49.8%
* 1966 election: 48.4%
* 2020 poll: 48%
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #163 on: April 18, 2020, 12:14:27 PM »

Surprised they never polled 50% in the post war era when 2 party politics was more of a thing.

(to contrast, in the UK both Tories and Labour quite often polled in the 50s come that period)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #164 on: April 18, 2020, 12:21:20 PM »

Surprised they never polled 50% in the post war era when 2 party politics was more of a thing.

(to contrast, in the UK both Tories and Labour quite often polled in the 50s come that period)

ÖVP and SPÖ were always equally strong after 1945 (more or less) and the KPÖ and FPÖ got 5% each to prevent any party from hitting 50%.

That only changed with the popular Socialist „media Chancellor“ Bruno Kreisky in the 70s (who  Kurz is trying to copy these days with an adapted (Social) media campaign and „message control“).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #165 on: April 19, 2020, 02:25:09 AM »

Shocked

Profil/Unique Research (13.-16. April, n=806):

48% ÖVP (+10.5)
16% Greens (+2.1)
16% SPÖ (-5.2)
13% FPÖ (-3.2)
  6% NEOS (-2.1)
  1% Others (-2.1)

Vote for Chancellor:

55% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP-incumbent)
  8% Werner Kogler (Greens)
  8% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
  7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
  3% Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
19% Others/None/Undecided

Quote
Methode: Telefonische und Online-Befragung
Zielgruppe: Österr. Bevölkerung ab 16 Jahren
Max. Schwankungsbreite der Ergebnisse: ±3,4 Prozentpunkte
Sample: n = 806 Befragte
Feldarbeit: 13. bis 16. April 2020

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-corona-11452832

Chancellor Kurz also gets a 82-13 approval rating.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #166 on: April 19, 2020, 03:53:08 AM »

New VIENNA poll for the state election in October.

OGM for the "Kronen Zeitung":

37% SPÖ (-3 compared with 2015)
24% ÖVP (+15)
17% Greens (+5)
  8% FPÖ (-23)
  7% NEOS (+1)
  5% DAÖ (+5)
  2% Others (n.c.)

https://www.puls24.at/news/politik/wien-sonntagsfrage-24-prozent-fuer-oevp-5-prozent-fuer-strache/202206

54-44 majority for the current SPÖ-Green city government.

61-37 majority for SPÖVP.

ÖVP-Greens-NEOS majority would depend on the performace of Strache and DAÖ:

There's a 5% threshold in Vienna elections.

If they are in, there's no majority for ÖVP-Greens-NEOS (48-50).

If they are out, there's a 48-45 majority for ÖVP-Greens-NEOS.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #167 on: April 19, 2020, 08:56:55 AM »

Yes, support for the ruling coalition there is actually up slightly.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #168 on: April 20, 2020, 08:18:58 AM »

Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #169 on: April 21, 2020, 07:14:09 AM »

Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.
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Astatine
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« Reply #170 on: April 21, 2020, 12:33:33 PM »

Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

To be exactly precise, Austria is a net importer of Czech energy (~11 TWh import vs. 0.1 TWh export), where coal and nuclear energy make up the largest parts of their power mix. So while there are neither coal nor nuclear power plants running, Austria's energy mix is still not free of coal and nuclear power. (excluding imports from Germany due to the planned phase-out)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #171 on: April 21, 2020, 01:03:25 PM »

Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

To be exactly precise, Austria is a net importer of Czech energy (~11 TWh import vs. 0.1 TWh export), where coal and nuclear energy make up the largest parts of their power mix. So while there are neither coal nor nuclear power plants running, Austria's energy mix is still not free of coal and nuclear power. (excluding imports from Germany due to the planned phase-out)

I know of the imports.

(My electricity provider from Salzburg has a 100% renewable energy mix though.)

Besides, I’m not totally sure to what extent EU member countries can get rid of nuclear/coal imports from other countries considering it’s a EU-wide power grid ... it’s probably technically impossible to filter incoming Czech electricity to Austria and remove the coal/nuclear parts from it ... even if we wanted it. We’d probably have to stop all Czech electricity imports then. Or any other imports from countries that still have a coal/nuclear component.

It’s still good though that there’s now no domestic production anymore of nuclear and coal.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #172 on: April 22, 2020, 11:20:02 AM »

Updated economic forecasts for 2020:

GDP: -4%
Deficit: -7% of GDP (2019: 1% surplus)
Debt: 80% of GDP (2019: 69%)
Unemployment: impossible to say, depends how many will get rehired
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #173 on: April 23, 2020, 07:36:38 AM »

Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

How on Earth is having no nuclear energy a welcome development? If only the rest of Europe was like France (where nuclear is the main way to produce electricity) maybe we could actually reduce CO2 emissions and what not.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #174 on: April 23, 2020, 09:24:40 AM »

Austria very recently said goodbye to last coal powered power plant on its territory. I think this is noteworthy news, also from political perspective.

This is a welcome development.

No nuclear energy, no coal.

How on Earth is having no nuclear energy a welcome development? If only the rest of Europe was like France (where nuclear is the main way to produce electricity) maybe we could actually reduce CO2 emissions and what not.

Austrians and Germans have weird fetish of hating nuclear energy for no good reason. And they are bullying other countries to close their nuclear plants like Pacs in Hungary or Temelin in Czech Republic. I am not some weird nuclear energy fanboy and I see some issues with that source of energy (cost of building, know-how needed from countries like France, where EDF/Areva have problems with realisation of their current projects etc.) but German-speaking countries are simply nuts with their anti-nuclear prejudices.
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