Pakistan General Elections: Feb. 8
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  Pakistan General Elections: Feb. 8
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Author Topic: Pakistan General Elections: Feb. 8  (Read 4307 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #100 on: February 10, 2024, 08:45:08 AM »

A sign of the times.
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jaichind
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« Reply #101 on: February 10, 2024, 05:53:55 PM »

This is the first time in Pakistan's election history that the party backed by the military failed to emerge as the largest party.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #102 on: February 10, 2024, 09:04:46 PM »

Unbelievable.
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jaichind
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« Reply #103 on: February 11, 2024, 06:22:35 AM »

Final official results of 264 out of 266.

One seat result has been held due to a court ruling due to PTI legal protests.  Most likely in the end that seat will go to PML(N).  Another seat did not have an election due to violence.  I suspect PTI will win that one.

                Win                                         Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       93                                                116
PML(N)       75                                                  64
PPP            54                                                  43
MQM          17 (Left, anti-PTI)                              6
Ind.             8                                                  12
JUI(F)          4 (Islamic)                                    12 (MMA alliance which is mostly JUI(F))
PML(Q)        3 (PML(N) splinter, have allied with PPP and PTI in the past)

By region
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa - PTI took seats from JUI(F) and PML(N)
Punjab - PML(N) took some seats from PTI
Non-Karachi Sindh - PPP took some seats from PTI
Karachi - MQM took some seats from PTI
Balochistan - PML(N) PPP and regionals each took some from JUI(F)

I think most post-election rigging, where it took place, would be in Punjab where PML(N) captured some seats from PTI.  The military wanted PML(N) to win this election so to increase PML(N) seats and reduce PTI seats Punjab is the place to do it.
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jaichind
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« Reply #104 on: February 11, 2024, 06:24:53 AM »

Most claims of rigging seem to be that the final reported does not jive with the aggregated numbers from each precinct.  So most likely any "intervention" by the military is at the counting centers and not at the precinct level.  There are several dozens of PTI complains about this so the PEC will have its work cut out for it to investigate each one of them one by one.
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jaichind
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« Reply #105 on: February 11, 2024, 11:34:49 AM »

Punjab assembly - small swing from PTI to PML(N) which is pretty impressive under the circumstances.

                Won             2018
PML(N)      137              129
PTI            116              123
PPP             10                 6
PML(Q)          7                 8
Ind.             22               30
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jaichind
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« Reply #106 on: February 11, 2024, 11:37:42 AM »

https://www.thestatesman.com/world/pakistan-elections-imran-khan-backed-independents-bag-101-seats-pml-n-win-75-1503268712.html

"Pakistan elections: Imran Khan-backed independents bag 101, PML-N wins 75 seats"

I see a lot of non-Pakistan media say that PTI won 101 seats.  This is incorrect.  They are conflating all independents to be PTI.  Only 93 out of the 101 independent winners are PTI-backed.   The rest are true independents.    I also found some cases where even Indian media made this mistake.  Given how related  India is to Pakistan I am surprised that Indian media will make this mistake.
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jaichind
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« Reply #107 on: February 11, 2024, 11:41:02 AM »

https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/790887-Newly-elected-PTI-backed-MNA-Waseem-Qadir-joins-PML-N

"Newly-elected PTI-backed MNA Waseem Qadir joins PML-N"

There are already PTI-backed winners that are defecting to PML(N).   Very likely a lot of $$$ was involved.   PML(N) will get its majority through hook or crook.
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jaichind
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« Reply #108 on: February 12, 2024, 06:04:12 AM »

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1156931-hafiz-naeem-quits-ps-129-seat-to-respect-pti-s-mandate

"Hafiz Naeem quits PS-129 seat to ‘respect PTI’s mandate’"

Islamic JI leader Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman who won a seat in the Sind assembly resigned his seat saying that the results were rigged and that the PTI candidate really won.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #109 on: February 12, 2024, 06:09:35 AM »

The noise out of PPP seems to be that either the
a) Vote for a PML(N) but stay in opposition so anti-incumbency does not rub off on them
OR
b) PML(N) and PPP share the PM spot through rotation

Clearly, PML(N) wants PPP to be part of the government with a PML(N) PM

PTI is weaker in Sindh than in Punjab so while PPP sees PTI as an enemy it is not on the same scale as how PML(N) sees things.
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jaichind
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« Reply #110 on: February 12, 2024, 11:54:15 AM »

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jaichind
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« Reply #111 on: February 13, 2024, 05:59:25 PM »

https://www.ft.com/content/db6895dd-d174-46f9-82d3-508b1805d490

"FirstFT: Imran Khan’s rivals nominate Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister"

It seems PML(N) and PPP agree on former PM Shehbaz Sharif as the coalition government PM.
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jaichind
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« Reply #112 on: February 16, 2024, 09:23:06 AM »

Vote shares similar to 2018, PTI lost seats mostly due to consolidation of the anti-PTI vote
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jaichind
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« Reply #113 on: February 16, 2024, 09:44:07 AM »

Punjab assembly - small swing from PTI to PML(N) which is pretty impressive under the circumstances.

                Won             2018
PML(N)      137              129
PTI            116              123
PPP             10                 6
PML(Q)          7                 8
Ind.             22               30

Vote share for Punjab assembly
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jaichind
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« Reply #114 on: March 13, 2024, 11:57:43 AM »

PPP's Asif Ali Zardari, widower of Benazir Bhutto and former Prez and also known as "Mr. 10%", is the new Prez of Pakistan as part of the PML(N)-PPP deal.
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