🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[CumbrianLefty]

Why are the President's ratings (still) negative?

[CumbrianLefty]

André Ventura's rhetoric around the 25 de Abril is a little worrisome imo.

Right wing loon makes loony right wing comments shocker.

[CumbrianLefty]

With friends like these, eh?

[CumbrianLefty]

A bit of a contrast with those last two polls you have quoted, any possible reason?

[CumbrianLefty]

Aximage poll on Madeira region for JE newspaper: [/url]

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 elections)

42.2% PSD (+2.8 )
27.5% PS (-8.3)
  2.3% CDS (-3.5)
  2.1% BE (+0.4)
  2.1% CDU (+0.3)
  9.6% Others/Invalid (-5.7)
14.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 June 2020. Polled 415 voters in the Madeira islands. MoE of 4.80%.

The Centeno resignation had no impact in the polling so far. And some curious notes: according with the Aximage poll, the PSD wins the young vote (18-34 years) with 33.2% to the PS' 27.8%, plus threre's a considerable gender gap with the PS barely winning men, 34.6% vs the PSD' 33.2%, but crushing among women, 44% vs the PSD' 20.1%.

Quite a big swing against PS since last year, any possible reason?

[CumbrianLefty]

CHEGA will hold a "Portugal isn't racist" rally next Saturday, even though the Covid-19 virus is surging in Lisbon.

Portugal isn't racist........but we are?

[CumbrianLefty]

So there is no "cordon sanitaire" around CHEGA as there is with many similar European FR parties?

[CumbrianLefty]

The thing about most "new right" populists (Trump/Bolsonaro/Johnson and now Ventura) is that outside their core "ideology" of nationalism they are pretty opportunist (or if you prefer "flexible") on most things. Its one of the factors that complicates effective attacks on them.

[CumbrianLefty]

PM António Costa went to parliament, yesterday, to ask for proposals and consensus on the post Covid recovery plan/plan for the next decade. What he heard was criticisms to the plan on the right and huge doubts on the left. PSD criticized , once again, the lack of support for businesses in the plan and asked the PM how can they think in rising the national minimum wage if they don't support more the business sector. In the current circumstances, PSD is against a rise of the minimum wage as, according to them, will create more unemployment and bankruptcies.

A familiar tune the world over, despite how rarely it actually turns out to be true.

[CumbrianLefty]

So its just CHEGA posturing, basically?

[CumbrianLefty]

Populist right already imploding, you love to see it

[CumbrianLefty]

It’s scary to see Portugal walking the first steps into extremism and fascism, represented in this case by the Chega party. Either the Portuguese people recognize the danger they face in an early stage or soon they will be just like Brazil and the US.

Eternal vigilance against complacency is both right and proper, but this seems slightly OTT.

[CumbrianLefty]

Let us all stop for a second to observe the magic moment when CHEGA signs a pledge to respect the dignity and the value of the human person.

I'm sure they will get round that somehow

[CumbrianLefty]

So what odds on a "real CHEGA" splitting away soon?

[CumbrianLefty]

PCP congress ends: Jerónimo de Sousa reelected with 127 votes in favour and 1 against

I don't suppose the identity of the sole dissident was revealed?

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, that sounds bad.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, simply declaring far-right* parties illegal rarely works.

(*as opposed to genuine neo-Nazis and the like, where the calculus is somewhat different)

[CumbrianLefty]

About Ventura's interview, of course all of that "if I poll behind X or Y, I will resign" was BS. Now, the big error Gomes and Matias are making in saying they would ban CHEGA if elected, could benefit CHEGA.

Of course, they can make such a "promise" knowing that they are highly unlikely to win and thus be expected to at least try and make it actually happen. In the meantime, it plays well their their "base".

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but experience shows that just ignoring the populist right often doesn't work either.

Its not the left/liberals attacking them per se that is the problem - rather that they too often do so in a way that doesn't resonate with those who are the target audience for Ventura et al.

[CumbrianLefty]

André Ventura's campaign event in Setúbal city ended in violence with protesters throwing several objects towards Ventura and some seem to have hit the candidate. He was rushed to his car by security. Riot police was on the campaign site and tried to create a security area but tensions escalated between the police and protesters and one protester was arested by the police. The arrest created more clashes between the police and protesters with police using force and pepper sprays to disperse the protesters. It's still unclear if Ventura was injured.

Thanks, Portuguese Antifa, for your attempt to create sympathy for Ventura. Very smart strategy indeed!

[I obviously condemn this kind of violence]

Well for some of those types, the more support he gets the better.

Its "sharpening the contradictions" and all that, don'tcha know?

[CumbrianLefty]

Final results:

60.7% Marcelo
13.0% Gomes
11.9% Ventura
  4.3% Ferreira
  4.0% Matias
  3.2% Tiago Mayan
  2.9% Tino de Rans

39.5% Turnout
 

So the exit polls actually slightly understated Marcelo, whilst having Ventura almost spot on?

That might upset a few narratives.

[CumbrianLefty]

New Judge President of the Constitutional Court, João Caupers, is in hot waters after it was revealed he wrote in 2010 that he is "revolted" by the promotion of homosexuality:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1361472996641185793

TC. New president revolted by "gay lobby" and "promoting homosexuality".

The new Judge President of the Constitutional Court, João Caupers, elected last week, is in hot waters today as it was revealed, by the media, a paper he wrote in 2010 saying he's revolted by the promotion of homosexuality adding that they are no elite, just a minority tolerated by the heterosexual majority and that the "Gay lobby" is an expressionless minority amplified by the media. He finishes the paper by saying that while a member of the heterosexual majority, though respecting homosexuals, he's not willing to be "tolerated by them".

This text is creating a lot of controversy and Judge Caupers has already responded by saying the 2010 paper was just a "pedagogical instrument" to provoke students using caricature words and comparing somewhat abusive ideas. He adds that the ideas on the paper do not reflect his real beliefs.

Has this "explanation" been widely accepted?

[CumbrianLefty]

António Costa reelected as PS leader with 94% of the votes:

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1406614343987482624

António Costa reelected in the PS with 94% of the votes.

Prime Minister António Costa was reelected as PS leader with 94% of the votes in party's leadership race. His challenger, Daniel Adrião, got 6% of the votes, held during this weekend. However, this result was Costa's worst as PS leader, compared with the 95% in 2016 and 96% in 2018. On the other hand, Mr Adrião result was better than his 2016 and 2018 candidacies. Detailed results are still to be announced.

In a statement after the results were announced, Costa thanked PS members for their trust and pointed that the next battle is the local elections in September, adding that the goal is to win and maintain the biggest number of mayors and councillors. Daniel Adrião reacted to the results saying he defeated the "unanimism" around António Costa, pressing that the party needs to unveiled the full results in the sake of transparency.

96% in 2016, 95% in 2018, 94% now.....

At this rate he could be in some difficulty when he is about 120

[CumbrianLefty]

Still happens a lot in this country (usually with town halls/civic centres rather than courts) Though yes most people will look online for such things nowadays.

[CumbrianLefty]

Leadership contests on the rightwing:

- CHEGA will hold another leadership election, the 3rd in just one year, because of the Constitutional Court ruling that invalidated every single decision made by CHEGA since the party's congress in September 2020. Ventura has resigned and will run again for the leadership;

I don't suppose many bets are being taken regarding the outcome of that one?